Crop Production - Cornell University

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-99)

Washington, D.C.

CropProduction

Released October 8, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department ofAgriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Production Up 1 Percent from SeptemberSoybeans down 3 percentAll Cotton down 6 percent

Corn grain production is forecast at 9.47 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month but down 3 percent from 1998. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 133.5 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from last month butdown 0.9 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the fourth largest production and the third highest yield onrecord. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 70.9 million acres, down 30,000 acres from last month due to flooding in NorthCarolina.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.70 billion bushels, down 3 percent from September 1 and down 2 percent from last year’srecord of 2.74 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 37.0 bushels per acre, decreased 0.9 bushels from last month and is1.9 bushels below the 1998 final yield. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 72.8 million acres, down 1 percent fromSeptember 1 but up 3 percent from 1998. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 475,000 acres in nine states due toabandonment or harvested for hay. The States with the largest acreage reductions are North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio, andTennessee. Downward adjustments to harvested acres were also made in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, and SouthCarolina.

Revisions to 1998 soybean acres, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 1999 Grain Stocks release.

All cotton production is forecast at 16.4 million 480-pound bales, down 6 percent from last month, but up 18 percent from1998. Yield is expected to average 588 pounds per harvested acre, down 37 pounds from last year. If realized, this would bethe tenth largest cotton crop on record. Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma’s Upland harvested acreagewere all revised downward, while Arkansas’ acreage was increased. Texas’ harvested Pima acreage was revised to32,000 acres. In addition to the increased abandonment in North Carolina, Hurricane Floyd resulted in a significant decreasein yield potential for the State.

-Special Note-

THERE ARE TWO CONTENT CHANGES OF NOTE IN THIS REPORT:

First, the Lentil, Dry Pea, and Austrian Winter Pea acreage, yield, and production data normally included inthis report will be moved to the November Crop Production report. This change was requested by the USADry Pea and Lentil Council and is part of the ongoing program change effort undertaken by NASS.

Second, a table has been added to the report reflecting the percent of corn, soybean, and cotton acres for1998 and 1999 that were seeded using herbicide and/or insect resistant seed varieties. These data reflectfarmer reported information from the 1998 and 1999 Objective Yield Surveys. We anticipate this data serieswill be updated each year in the October Crop Production report.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics BoardOctober 1999 2 NASS, USDA

All oranges: The initial forecast of the 1999-00 U.S. all orange crop is 12.1 million tons, up 22 percent from last year’s cropof 9.89 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast is 211 million boxes (9.50 million tons), 14 percent more than the186 million boxes (8.36 million tons) produced last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at124 million boxes (5.58 million tons), 11 percent higher than last season. Florida’s Valencia forecast of 87.0 million boxes(3.92 million tons) is 18 percent above last season’s final utilization. California’s all orange production is forecast at67.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), 76 percent more than last season’s freeze damaged crop. The Navel orange forecastwas carried forward from September at 40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons) and is 90 percent higher than the previousyear’s utilization. The initial California Valencia forecast for the 1999-00 season is 27.0 million boxes (1.01 million tons),59 percent more than a year ago.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1999-00 season is forecast at 1.60 gallons per box at42.0 degrees Brix. This is slightly less than last season’s record high 1.63 gallons per box as reported by the Florida CitrusProcessors Association. The 1996-97 yield was 1.57 gallons and the 1997-98 season yield was 1.58 gallons per box. Projected yields for 1999-00 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report.

This report was approved on October 8, 1999.

Acting Secretary ofAgriculture

Richard E. Rominger

Agricultural Statistics BoardChairperson

Frederic A. Vogel


ContentsPage

Apples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Corn for Grain, Ears Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Farmer Reported Genetically Enhanced Varieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Hay, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Alfalfa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Hazelnuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Pecans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Potatoes, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Rice, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Rice, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Sunflower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Sunflower, Acres by Variety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Tobacco,by State. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Tobacco, by Class and Type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

ALAZ 1

AR 1

CACOCT 2

DEFL 1

GAID 1

ILINIAKSKYLA 1

ME 2

MDMA 2

MIMNMS 1

MOMT 1

NENH 2

NJ 1

NM 1

NYNCNDOHOK 1

OR 1

PARI 2

SCSDTNTXUT 1

VT 2

VAWA 1

WV 1

WIWY 1

US

20030

215260

1,070

15555

26552

10,4505,550

12,2002,8501,180

540

400

2,0506,750

5002,500

188,550

9885

580770825

3,34022033

1,050

2753,550

6201,850

24

30010034

2,95060

72,604

21030

135235

1,130

15440

26055

10,6505,750

11,8002,8001,240

410

400

1,9006,700

3202,600

198,250

6090

590640810

3,10031035

1,030

2603,250

5601,730

22

32014035

2,80055

70,925

63.0175.0100.0160.0145.0

100.062.085.0

150.0141.0137.0145.0147.0115.081.0

109.0

111.0153.086.0

114.0115.0145.0

92.0165.0114.070.0

107.0141.0130.0190.0111.0

40.0121.096.0

100.0141.0

84.0190.080.0

137.0127.0

134.4

100.0190.0125.0185.0146.0

84.088.097.0

155.0140.0128.0151.0142.098.0

127.0

85.0

127.0142.0110.095.0

135.0138.0

40.0170.0102.090.0

107.0125.0135.0190.072.0

70.0105.098.0

135.0143.0

80.0195.065.0

143.0130.0

132.2

100.0190.0125.0185.0144.0

84.088.095.0

155.0146.0128.0150.0142.098.0

127.0

85.0

123.0143.0110.097.0

135.0140.0

40.0170.099.078.0

107.0124.0135.0190.076.0

70.0110.098.0

138.0143.0

80.0195.065.0

145.0130.0

133.5

12,6005,250

21,50041,600

155,150

15,5003,410

22,5257,800

1,473,450760,350

1,769,000418,950135,70043,740

43,600

227,5501,032,750

43,000285,000

2,0701,239,750

9,01614,02566,12053,90088,275

470,94028,6006,270

116,550

11,000429,55059,520

185,0003,384

25,20019,0002,720

404,1507,620

9,761,085

21,0005,700

16,87543,475

162,720

12,9363,520

24,7008,525

1,554,900736,000

1,770,000397,600121,52052,070

34,000

233,700958,10035,200

252,2002,565

1,155,000

2,40015,30058,41049,92086,670

384,40041,8506,650

78,280

18,200357,50054,880

238,7403,146

25,60027,3002,275

406,0007,150

9,466,9771 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.2 Not estimated.


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

State


1998 1999 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1


AL 1

ARCOGA 1

ILKSKY 1

LAMSMONENMNC 1

OKSC 1

SDTN 1

TX

US

613018530

1073,300

812536

3206006512

3403

14016

2,300

7,723

81152003097

3,4007

25056

31045013511

4004

11016

2,900

8,499

45.053.057.038.074.080.080.060.065.083.094.045.045.045.035.071.070.046.0

67.3

50.072.052.050.077.073.080.080.085.070.085.055.057.050.045.058.075.063.0

68.2

50.074.048.050.077.073.080.080.085.070.087.055.057.050.045.058.075.063.0

68.3

2706,890

10,5451,1407,918

264,000640

7,5002,340

26,56056,4002,925

54015,300

1059,9401,120

105,800

519,933

4008,5109,6001,5007,469

248,200560

20,0004,760

21,70039,1507,425

62720,000

1806,3801,200

182,700

580,3611 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

State


1998 1999 1 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ARCALAMSMO 2

TX

US

1,525478620268143283

3,317

1,640548625323176259

3,571

5,8006,8404,5305,8005,2005,600

5,669

5,8507,7004,8505,8005,1006,300

5,967

5,9007,5005,0005,7005,1006,100

5,945

88,42032,69828,10715,5447,436

15,846

188,051

96,76041,10031,25018,4118,976

15,799

212,2961 Area harvested has been updated, planted acres will be reviewed and published in a later report.2 Yield estimate for the current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

199719981999 1

124,485141,624152,425

57,09144,45356,099

1,4161,9743,772

182,992188,051212,296

1 Indicated October 1, 1999, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data becomeavailable through the growing season.


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

State


1998 1999 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1


ALARDEFL 1

GAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJ 1

NY 1

NCNDOHOK 1

PA 1

SCSDTNTXVAWI

US

3203,400

21630

22010,5505,500

10,3502,5001,2001,070

4601,8906,8002,0005,0003,750

11397

1,4151,4754,390

340395500

3,4001,210

270480

1,100

70,441

2003,400

20119

20010,7505,680

10,8502,6501,1001,010

4501,9906,9001,9505,3004,300

108108

1,3001,4804,600

480360470

3,8601,040

320460

1,250

72,786

22.025.033.023.021.044.042.048.030.030.021.031.039.042.024.034.044.028.041.027.032.044.018.040.021.039.029.022.023.047.0

38.9

18.028.026.030.020.043.040.050.027.021.025.026.040.041.025.029.044.022.040.027.034.039.026.028.021.035.020.031.024.047.0

37.9

16.026.026.030.020.042.039.048.027.019.025.026.040.042.025.027.043.022.040.024.034.037.026.028.021.035.017.031.026.048.0

37.0

7,04085,0007,128

6904,620

464,200231,000496,80075,00036,00022,47014,26073,710

285,60048,000

170,000165,000

3,1643,977

38,20547,200

193,1606,120

15,80010,500

132,60035,0905,940

11,04051,700

2,741,014

3,20088,4005,226

5704,000

451,500221,520520,80071,55020,90025,25011,70079,600

289,80048,750

143,100184,900

2,3764,320

31,20050,320

170,20012,48010,0809,870

135,10017,6809,920

11,96060,000

2,696,2721 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.


Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

VarietalType &State


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts

US 1

Non-Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts

US 1

All CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts

US 1

1071558738

1,58088511

34

2,897

43203830

3803933

12

595

15017512568

1,96092444

46

3,492

1902308669

1,28082724

37

2,743

115304249

4905853

13

850

305260128118

1,77088577

50

3,593

1,4001,5701,3501,2401,5401,640

600

1,101

1,549

1,1501,2001,2501,1301,4201,430

700

1,124

1,322

1,3281,5281,3201,1911,5171,631

675

1,107

1,510

1,2301,5601,3501,2401,3801,550

950

1,120

1,404

56,400198,00079,20027,600

1,463,0001,095,150

22,000

44,350

2,985,700

29,70025,20027,00031,320

399,900100,08056,700

21,352

691,252

86,100223,200106,20058,920

1,862,9001,195,230

78,700

65,702

3,676,952

149,800243,350117,45047,120

2,433,2001,451,400

6,600

37,440

4,486,360

49,45024,00047,50033,900

539,60055,77023,100

13,482

786,802

199,250267,350164,95081,020

2,972,8001,507,170

29,700

50,922

5,273,162

375,150405,600172,800146,320

2,442,6001,371,750

73,150

56,000

5,043,3701 Estimates include all States except AK and HI.


Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type,State and United States, 1998

StateVarietal Type

Oil Non-Oil All

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

COKSMNNENDSDTX

Oth Sts

US

1151609039

1,60090012

37

2,953

45204031

3904035

14

615

16018013070

1,99094047

51

3,568

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

ALFLGANMNCOKSCTXVA

US

197.090.0

537.022.0

124.575.011.5

335.075.0

1,467.0

198.088.0

538.019.0

115.078.011.5

315.074.0

1,436.5

2,1952,5902,8152,8203,1902,1302,4502,7402,950

2,702

2,2002,6002,6002,6002,9002,6002,9002,9003,000

2,660

2,2002,6002,6002,7002,4502,6002,7003,1002,900

2,660

432,415233,100

1,511,65562,040

397,155159,75028,175

917,900221,250

3,963,440

435,600228,800

1,398,80051,300

281,750202,80031,050

976,500214,600

3,821,2001 Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,and United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

TypeandState

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 4 19981999

1998 1999Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland AL AZ AR CA FL 3

GA KS 3

LA MS MO NM 3

NC OK SC TN TX VA 3

US

Amer-Pima AZ CA NM TX

US

All AL AZ AR CA FL 3

GA KS 3

LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA 3

US

475.0248.0900.0620.080.0

1,280.016.5

525.0940.0357.060.3

705.0120.0286.0445.0

3,300.091.0

10,448.8

15.5180.0

7.332.0

234.8

475.0263.5900.0800.080.0

1,280.016.5

525.0940.0357.067.6

705.0120.0286.0445.0

3,332.091.0

10,683.6

560.0239.0960.0585.088.0

1,450.028.0

595.01,180.0

375.067.0

810.0170.0315.0565.0

5,000.0109.0

13,096.0

11.2259.0

7.032.0

309.2

560.0250.2960.0844.088.0

1,450.028.0

595.01,180.0

375.074.0

810.0170.0315.0565.0

5,032.0109.0

13,405.2

5591,177

645887489578404586737471640699560587589524765

619

830941658791

904

5591,156

645899489578404586737471642699560587589526765

625

5831,155

6971,190

524596411686716561716687531549516480819

610

8141,112

651738

1,045

5831,140

6971,166

524596411686716561710687531549516482819

621

5571,155

6651,190

524530411686716550716501480518442461819

576

8141,149

686825

1,093

5571,140

6651,177

524530411686716550714501480518442463819

588

553.0608.0

1,209.01,146.0

81.51,542.0

13.9641.0

1,444.0350.080.4

1,026.0140.0350.0546.0

3,600.0145.1

13,475.9

26.8352.810.052.7

442.3

553.0634.8

1,209.01,498.8

81.51,542.0

13.9641.0

1,444.0350.090.4

1,026.0140.0350.0546.0

3,652.7145.1

13,918.2

650.0575.0

1,330.01,450.0

96.01,600.0

24.0850.0

1,760.0430.0100.0845.0170.0340.0520.0

4,800.0186.0

15,726.0

19.0620.010.055.0

704.0

650.0594.0

1,330.02,070.0

96.01,600.0

24.0850.0

1,760.0430.0110.0845.0170.0340.0520.0

4,855.0186.0

16,430.01 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales.3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.4 Area harvested has been updated, planted acres will be reviewed and published in a later report.


Cottonseed: Production, United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

StateProduction

1997 1998 1999 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,934.6 5,365.4 6,210.01 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State andUnited States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

StateArea Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

ALAZARCACOCT 1

DE 1

FLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAME 1

MD 1

MA 1

MIMNMSMOMTNENVNH 1

NJ 1

NMNYNCNDOHOKORPARI 1

SCSDTNTXUTVT 1

VAWAWVWIWY

US

750240

1,1751,5701,410

6316

230650

1,430950750

1,5702,9002,350

330158200103

1,2502,400

7903,6502,5003,200

48556

120360

1,400670

2,6001,3302,250

9701,850

10320

4,0001,7854,040

710245

1,260750580

2,4001,190

60,016

780250

1,2251,5701,550

5815

260650

1,430850750

1,6402,9002,400

36015021095

1,2502,400

7103,6502,6503,200

48051

120385

1,300710

2,8001,3002,6001,1001,880

7310

4,2001,8304,810

700235

1,260720580

2,4001,270

62,051

2.107.251.915.173.262.033.442.502.303.883.573.593.402.772.432.201.773.161.962.852.962.202.112.012.403.211.961.984.302.222.221.612.911.503.482.122.202.002.042.221.703.912.062.074.211.992.652.05

2.52

2.207.282.025.323.422.003.002.402.703.833.323.393.932.691.992.101.532.341.713.383.202.002.042.032.383.191.751.704.461.972.071.882.352.332.781.841.862.002.302.132.553.921.761.644.181.093.012.26

2.60

1,7331,7062,4708,4084,739

13748

6501,5604,7303,1592,3335,1906,8404,6351,027

253501167

3,7606,3981,8007,3405,4806,7901,506

105282

1,4973,4441,3834,3753,8505,1083,2664,106

16630

7,8103,702

10,9552,718

5222,2733,0841,1016,3532,596

152,536

1,5751,7402,2508,1154,602

12855

5751,4955,5493,3952,6905,3328,0205,705

726280632202

3,5657,1101,7387,7035,0207,6801,556

110237

1,5483,1101,4864,1903,8753,3803,3743,915

22640

8,1603,9696,8702,778

5042,6043,1561,1576,3702,445

151,338

1,7161,8202,4708,3595,300

11645

6241,7555,4772,8252,5456,4467,8054,785

756230492162

4,2257,6901,4207,4555,3757,6101,533

89204

1,7172,5601,4735,2703,0606,0603,0553,468

13620

9,6403,891

12,2782,744

4132,0643,006

6307,2302,864



Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Productionby State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999


AZAR 1

CACOCT 1

DE 1

IDILINIAKSKYME 1

MD 1

MA 1

MIMNMOMTNENVNH 1

NJ 1

NMNYNC 1

NDOHOKORPARI 1

SDTN 1

TXUTVT 1

VA 1

WAWV 1

WIWY

US

20025

1,020810

88

1,130600400

1,2501,000

250135518

8501,550

4501,7001,400

2608

3027060020

1,400550350400700

22,400

3514054545

12048050

1,900600

23,642

20025

1,030900

87

1,150500400

1,300850250106020

9001,550

4501,7501,400

2556

3029055020

1,500600400450720

22,500

3011054045

12045050

1,900640

23,968

8.002.606.504.202.203.604.304.204.103.604.603.502.504.101.803.303.603.252.203.754.603.002.805.102.452.801.753.502.604.802.803.002.403.404.504.402.302.705.003.002.802.60

3.47

8.202.806.704.302.003.604.303.904.004.204.602.802.003.201.703.803.702.702.303.704.602.002.005.202.202.902.303.003.603.902.402.002.703.704.804.402.002.005.002.003.202.90

3.57

1,55870

6,8403,276

2924

4,1002,2621,5204,2003,600

75020

18239

3,0604,8681,2603,9604,2251,092

1673

1,3261,664

602,6252,1601,3681,9742,072

55,290

132635

2,344104330

2,304165

5,2251,728

78,535

1,60065

6,6303,402

1829

4,8592,5201,6404,5004,600

87533

22632

2,8055,5801,4633,7405,2501,196

2484

1,3771,470

562,4501,925

9101,9201,960

65,760

119630

2,398104324

2,400150

5,3201,560

82,010

1,64070

6,9013,870

1625

4,9451,9501,6005,4603,910

70020

19234

3,4205,7351,2154,0255,1801,173

1260

1,5081,210

583,4501,8001,4401,7551,728

46,750

111528

2,37690

2402,250

1006,0801,856



All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999


AL 1

AZ 2

ARCACOCT 2

DE 2

FL 1

GA 1

IDILINIAKSKYLA 1

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MIMNMS 1

MOMTNENV 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 2

NYNCNDOHOKORPARI 2

SC 1

SDTNTXUT 2

VT 2

VAWAWVWIWY

US

75040

1,150550600558

230650300350350320

1,9002,100

33014514585

400850790

3,200800

1,800225489090

800650

1,200780

1,900570

1,1508

3201,6001,7503,900

165200

1,140270530500590

36,374

78050

1,200540650508

260650280350350340

2,0502,150

36014015075

350850710

3,200900

1,800225459095

750690

1,300700

2,200650

1,1605

3101,7001,8004,700

160190

1,140270530500630

38,083

2.103.501.902.702.002.003.302.502.302.302.503.002.601.802.302.201.702.802.001.901.802.201.951.601.351.601.801.701.902.052.201.452.501.302.551.702.002.001.502.201.602.302.002.002.801.902.101.50

1.91

2.203.602.002.702.202.002.502.402.701.902.502.702.901.901.902.101.502.001.702.302.302.001.951.501.351.601.701.602.201.802.051.401.802.102.001.501.802.001.702.102.502.301.701.602.801.002.301.60

1.99

1,733148

2,4001,5681,463

10824

6501,560

630897813990

3,2403,8851,027

233319128700

1,5301,8006,0801,5202,565

41489

209171

1,7801,3231,7501,6903,7401,2922,034

11630

2,5203,570

10,320374418

1,943780936

1,128868

74,001

1,575140

2,1851,4851,200

11026

5751,495

690875

1,050832

3,4204,830

726247406170760

1,5301,7386,2401,2802,430

36086

153171

1,6401,4301,7401,9502,4701,4541,955

16640

2,4003,8506,240

380400

2,280756

1,0071,050

885

69,328

1,716180

2,4001,4581,430

10020

6241,755

532875945986

3,8954,085

756210300128805

1,9551,4206,2401,3502,430

36077

144209

1,3501,4151,8201,2604,6201,3001,740

9620

2,8903,780

11,750368323

1,824756530

1,1501,008

75,8981 Includes alfalfa hay. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999 1


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CACOIDKSMIMNMT 2

NENM 2

NYNDOR 2

TXUT 2

WAWI 2

WY

US

105.0155.0103.019.0

295.0175.012.2

188.09.5

30.0710.0

8.613.55.9

40.07.2

37.0

1,913.9

132.0155.0103.023.0

340.0185.015.5

205.01.0

30.5600.011.419.06.6

37.08.0

31.0

1,903.0

1,9501,8502,0502,0001,5001,4502,1801,9501,8001,4201,3801,7701,000

5102,2301,6002,180

1,611

2,2001,7002,0001,8501,9001,4502,1801,9001,8001,2001,3001,9001,500

6502,2001,8502,150

1,669

3,0002,2802,156

3804,9412,558

2573,708

204679

7,11918214342

850171700

29,370

2,0482,8682,112

3804,4252,538

2663,666

171426

9,79815213530

890115808

30,828

2,9002,6352,060

4266,4602,683

3383,895

18366

7,80021728543

814148667

31,7551 Excludes beans grown for garden seed.2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Productionby State and United States, 1998-99 1

StateArea Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CAFL

US

7.08.5

15.5

8.59.6

18.1

7.08.0

15.0

8.59.3

17.8

Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CAFL

US

220180

199

260200

229

1,5401,440

2,980

2,2101,860

4,0701 1999 revised.


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Stateand United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CTFLGAINKYMDMAMO 1

NCOHPASCTNVAWV 1

WI

US

2,8156,800

41,0008,500

226,2606,5001,2652,700

251,1009,8007,800

45,00059,41545,0001,6002,100

717,655

3,0106,000

35,0006,500

226,3506,5001,2502,300

208,4009,8006,200

39,00059,16038,6001,7001,320

651,090

1,5192,5152,2002,0001,9611,4001,4132,1302,1971,8302,0152,0501,8702,1311,3501,687

2,061

1,6582,6001,9001,9001,7751,4001,7191,9502,1371,6201,8022,1001,8092,2211,3002,114

1,949

4,12819,05389,22518,690

497,92812,0001,9137,035

731,19922,23017,020

126,360114,292117,576

3,0605,690

1,787,399

4,27617,10290,20017,000

443,6289,1001,7885,751

551,73017,93415,72092,250

111,10095,8982,1603,542

1,479,179

4,99215,60066,50012,350

401,7539,1002,1494,485

445,36015,87611,17081,900

107,02285,7352,2102,790



Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

Class and TypeArea Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured Type 11, Old Belts NC VA US Type 12, Eastern NC Belt NC Type 13, NC Border & SC Belt NC SC US Type 14, GA-FL Belt FL GA US Total 11-14Class 2, Fire-cured Type 21, VA Belt VA Type 22, Eastern District KY TN US Type 23, Western District KY TN US Total 21-23Class 3, Air-cured Class 3A, Light Air-cured Type 31, Burley IN KY MO 1

NC OH TN VA WV 1

US Type 32, Southern MD Belt MD PA US Total 31-32

69,00033,000

102,000

143,000

31,00045,00076,000

6,80041,00047,800

368,800

1,500

3,8507,300

11,150

3,600590

4,19016,840

8,500215,000

2,7008,1009,800

51,00010,4001,600

307,100

6,5003,3009,800

316,900

55,00026,00081,000

119,000

26,00039,00065,000

6,00035,00041,000

306,000

1,500

3,6507,000

10,650

3,450560

4,01016,160

6,500215,000

2,3008,4009,800

51,00011,0001,700

305,700

6,5003,0009,500

315,200

2,2852,2202,264

2,240

2,0002,0502,030

2,5152,2002,2452,204

1,560

2,3152,3302,325

2,8052,5002,7622,365

2,0001,9352,1301,4501,8301,7951,9401,3501,896

1,4001,9001,5681,886

2,3002,3502,316

2,100

2,2002,1002,140

2,6001,9002,0022,153

1,650

2,1002,2002,166

2,5002,2002,4582,190

1,9001,7501,9501,4001,6201,7502,0001,3001,747

1,4001,7501,5111,740

157,66573,260

230,925

320,320

62,00092,250

154,250

17,10290,200

107,302812,797

2,340

8,91317,00925,922

10,0981,475

11,57339,835

17,000416,025

5,75111,74517,93491,54520,1762,160

582,336

9,1006,270

15,370597,706

126,50061,100

187,600

249,900

57,20081,900

139,100

15,60066,50082,100

658,700

2,475

7,66515,40023,065

8,6251,2329,857

35,397

12,350376,250

4,48511,76015,87689,25022,0002,210

534,181

9,1005,250

14,350548,531

--continued


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,and United States, 1998 and Forecasted October 1, 1999 (continued)

Class and TypeArea Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-curedClass 3B, Dark Air-cured Type 35, One Sucker Belt KY TN US Type 36, Green River Belt KY Type 37, VA Sun-cured Belt VA Total 35-37Class 4, Cigar Filler Type 41, PA Seedleaf PAClass 5, Cigar Binder Class 5A, CT Valley Binder Type 51, CT Valley Broadleaf CT MA US Class 5B, WI Binder Type 54, Southern WI WI Type 55, Northern WI WI Total 54-55 Total 51-55Class 6, Cigar Wrapper Type 61, CT Valley Shade-grown CT MA USAll Cigar Types Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,450525

2,975

1,360

1004,435

4,500

1,435925

2,360

1,500

6002,1004,460

1,380340

1,720

10,680

717,655

2,750600

3,350

1,500

1004,950

3,200

1,460870

2,330

940

3801,3203,650

1,550380

1,930

8,780

651,090

2,2802,0402,238

2,210

1,2202,206

2,100

1,6001,4451,539

1,735

1,5651,6871,609

1,4351,3251,413

1,784

2,061

2,1501,9002,105

2,200

1,6002,124

1,850

1,8001,8151,806

2,200

1,9002,1141,917

1,5251,5001,520

1,805

1,949

5,5861,0716,657

3,006

1229,785

9,450

2,2961,3373,633

2,603

9393,5427,175

1,980451

2,431

19,056

1,479,179

5,9131,1407,053

3,300

16010,513

5,920

2,6281,5794,207

2,068

7222,7906,997

2,364570

2,934

15,851



Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State andUnited States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999 1


1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999


CACOIDMIMNMTNENM 2

NDOHORTX 2

WAWY

US

100.057.3

203.0173.0458.062.447.4

242.61.1

17.7

35.853.4

1,451.7

105.067.9

210.0187.0469.061.866.8

253.01.2

19.7

27.057.0

1,525.4

28.322.727.116.021.222.619.7

22.217.326.6

33.320.3

22.5

31.021.625.318.021.023.519.8

21.519.025.0

31.820.5

22.3

2,9701,3085,2103,0408,2511,2241,013

494,205

17494270595

1,240

29,886

2,8301,3015,5012,7689,7101,410

934

5,38619

471

1,1921,084

32,606

3,2551,4675,3133,3669,8491,4521,323

5,44023

493

8591,169

34,0091 Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA.2 No acres planted in 1998 or 1999.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Productionby State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

StateArea Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999


FLHILATX

US

447.032.5

435.032.6

947.1

456.035.0

465.031.2

987.2

40.186.129.732.6

36.6

39.084.033.033.6

37.6

16,2363,009

11,562902

31,709

17,9252,798

12,9201,064

34,707

17,8002,941

15,3451,048

37,1341 Net tons.


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 1999 1

Crop and StateUtilized Production

BoxesUtilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges Early Mid & Navel 3

AZ CA 4

FL TX US Valencia AZ CA FL TX US All AZ CA FL TX USTemples FLGrapefruit White Seedless 5

FL Colored Seedless 6

FL Other FL All AZ CA FL 5 6

TX USTangerines AZ 7

CA 7

FL USLemons AZ CA USTangelos FLK-Early Citrus FL

35044,000

140,0001,350

185,700

65025,000

104,000175

129,825

1,00069,000

244,0001,525

315,525

2,250

18,300

30,600

650

8008,000

49,5504,800

63,150

6002,4005,2008,200

2,60021,00023,600

2,850

40

55021,000

112,0001,250

134,800

60017,00073,700

18091,480

1,15038,000

185,7001,430

226,280

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

7507,500

47,0506,100

61,400

9501,5004,9507,400

3,45016,20019,650

2,550

80

40040,000

124,0001,300

165,700

50027,00087,000

300114,800

90067,000

211,0001,600

280,500

2,100

20,500

29,000

500

6508,000

50,0005,500

64,150

7002,3006,4009,400

3,90020,50024,400

2,600

70

131,6506,300

578,020

25938

4,6807

5,650

382,588

10,98064

13,670

101

777

1,301

28

27268

2,106192

2,593

2390

247360

99798897

128

2

21787

5,04053

5,901

22638

3,3178

3,985

431,4258,357

619,886

81

757

1,220

23

25251

2,000244

2,520

3656

235327

131616747

115

4

151,5005,580

557,150

191,0133,915

134,960

342,5139,495

6812,110

95

871

1,233

21

22268

2,125220

2,635

2686

304416

148779927

117

31 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerinesin TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 5,000,000 boxes in1997-98. 6 Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7 Includes tangelos and tangors.


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999 1

StateTotal Production

1997 1998 1999

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AZ 2

AR 2

CA 2

CO 2

CT 2

GA 2

ID 2

IL 2

IN 2

IA 2

KS 2

KY 2

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MIMN 2

MO 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 3

NYNCOH 2

OR 2

PARI 2

SC 2

TN 2

UT 2

VT 2

VAWAWVWI 2

US

45.07.2

962.035.024.015.0

110.074.050.013.07.56.5

64.046.060.0

1,000.022.053.040.555.07.0

1,120.0152.060.0

160.0535.0

3.660.010.042.050.0

270.05,000.0

115.049.5

10,323.8

46.04.5

815.065.017.511.0

170.045.054.08.71.6

11.044.534.629.0

970.023.834.019.055.08.0

1,070.0185.080.0

180.0395.0

2.645.012.549.035.0

280.06,400.0

110.076.1

11,387.4

40.07.2

825.015.022.012.090.075.060.09.06.1

14.052.037.057.0

1,100.024.044.041.055.0

1,230.0170.0100.0160.0490.0

3.138.012.014.050.0

360.05,195.0

130.077.4

10,614.81 In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.3 No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made.


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

Crop and StateUtilized Production

1997 1998 1999

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

AL AZ AR CA FL GA LA MS NM NC OK SC TX US

Native & Seedling AL AR FL GA KS LA MS NC OK SC TX US

All Pecans AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS NM NC OK SC TX US

7,00018,5001,2003,000

60077,0002,0002,600

45,000900

3,0002,100

40,000202,900

6,0002,3001,200

23,0004,200

10,0001,400

60032,0001,400

50,000132,100

13,00018,5003,5003,0001,800

100,0004,200

12,0004,000

45,0001,500

35,0003,500

90,000335,000

3,50013,000

3001,700

20035,0003,000

80032,0001,500

200800

20,000112,000

1,500250

1,1005,000

5013,000

4001,0001,800

30010,00034,400

5,00013,000

5501,7001,300

40,00050

16,0001,200

32,0002,5002,0001,100

30,000146,400

8,00019,000

7602,3001,500

85,0004,0003,000

50,000800

2,000800

60,000237,160

5,0003,0401,400

15,0003,500

14,0001,000

50013,000

30030,00086,740

13,00019,0003,8002,3002,900

100,0003,500

18,0004,000

50,0001,300

15,0001,100

90,000323,900

1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by State and United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

StateUtilized Production

1997 1998 1999

Tons Tons Tons

ORWA 1

US

46,850150

47,000

15,400100

15,500

37,700300

38,0001 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1999

StateTotal Production

1997 1998 1999

Tons Tons Tons

Grapes (Table Type) 1

CAGrapes (Wine Type) 1

CAGrapes (Raisin Type) 2

CA

All Grapes AZ 1

AR 1

CA 1

GA 1

MI MO 1

NY NC 1

OH 1

OR 1

PA SC 1

WA

US

825,000

2,940,000

2,883,000

25,0006,500

6,648,0002,600

61,0001,950

139,000950

6,90018,50061,000

500319,000

7,290,900

645,000

2,570,000

2,158,000

23,0004,550

5,373,0003,200

70,4002,200

128,0001,5006,100

14,70054,000

300222,000

5,902,950

750,000

2,900,000

2,250,000

8,0005,600

5,900,0003,800

68,0002,500

189,0001,6008,600

19,50073,000

300275,000

6,554,9001 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.2 Fresh basis.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested1998 1999

1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AugSep

3,6503,745

3,5153,265

2,4202,310

2,0251,590

2,7852,495

3,5003,640


Corn for Grain: Ears Per Acre

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts objective yield surveys in 7 major corn producing states each year. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific countsand measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,Selected States, 1995-99

State Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

OctNov

OctNov

OctNov

OctNov

OctNov

OctNov

OctNov

22,90022,850

23,00022,950

24,05024,000

25,75025,700

21,80021,700

22,65022,500

23,60023,250

23,70023,600

22,75022,700

24,35024,250

26,40026,450

22,60022,550

22,30022,000

24,25024,650

23,50023,400

22,15022,150

24,60024,550

26,15025,900

21,90021,900

22,50022,300

24,35024,300

24,30024,300

23,45023,350

24,25024,300

27,55027,550

22,50022,500

24,80025,000

24,95024,850

24,950

23,950

25,300

26,700

22,650

24,100

25,700


Farmer Reported Genetically Enhanced Varieties

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts objective yield surveys in major corn, soybean, and Upland cottonproducing states each year. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain, soybean, and Upland cotton fields are visited monthlyfrom August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Detailed information concerning the selected fieldsis obtained during an initial producer interview. Respondents were asked if they planted seed that, through conventionalbreeding or bio-technology, was resistant to herbicides or insects.

The following table is based on responses from the seed variety questions on the 1998 and 1999 Objective Yield surveys. These data are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to show trends in productionpractices. Herbicide resistant varieties include those developed using both bio-technology and conventional breedingtechniques. Insect resistant varieties include those containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt.) only.

Farmer Reported Genetically Enhanced VarietiesPercent of Harvested Acres, by Crop, 1998 - 1999

Crop

Herbicide Resistant Insect Resistant (Bt)

1998 1999 1998 1999

PercentCorn for Grain 1

Soybeans 2

Upland Cotton 3

94233

85738

26

23

30

271 7-State Total: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin. These 7 States accounted for 69 percent of the U.S. harvested acreage in

both 1998 and 1999.2 8-State Total: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio. These 8 States accounted for 71 percent of the U.S. harvested

acreage in both 1998 and 1999.3 5-State Total: Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas. These 5 States accounted for 60 percent of the U.S. harvested acreage in 1998 and

63 percent in 1999.


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99(Domestic Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3/

6,337.080,187.0

4,892.03,345.01,566.09,626.0

65,821.046,449.03,805.0

15,567.0

1,127.0

336.098.9

1,521.04.8

303.072,025.03,568.0

13,392.513,064.3

328.21,498.8

9.02,010.1

323.4162.0

1,416.615.593.073.0

1,235.1

87.2

5,223.077,611.0

4,670.03,600.01,582.09,299.0

62,998.043,425.04,075.0

15,498.0

1,095.0

341.059.7

1,468.03.5

313.074,145.03,676.0

14,601.214,283.0

318.21,560.6

1,992.6

174.818.187.769.0

1,216.4

88.1

5,864.072,604.05,919.0

60,016.023,642.036,374.02,755.03,317.0

418.07,723.0

305.059,002.040,126.03,728.0

15,148.0

1,092.0

329.095.6

1,467.04.7

285.070,441.03,492.0

10,683.610,448.8

234.81,451.7

947.1717.7

7.41,913.9

309.1158.5

6.10.4

36.6124.0

1,387.715.090.668.1

1,214.027.483.80.5

4,778.070,925.0

62,051.023,968.038,083.02,465.03,571.0

383.08,499.0

54,319.035,542.03,859.0

14,918.0

1,067.0

334.058.2

1,436.53.5

294.072,786.03,593.0

13,405.213,096.0

309.21,525.4

987.2651.1

1,903.0

0.434.2

168.017.885.864.4

1,200.3

85.2

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.


Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99(Domestic Units) 1

Crop UnitYield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Rice 2

Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2

Upland 2

Amer-Pima 2

Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas 2

Dry Edible Beans 2

Dry Edible Peas 2

Lentils 2

Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3/

Bu"Ton"""BuCwtBu"TonBu"""

LbTonBuLb"""BuLb

Bale""Ton"Lb

Cwt""""

Lb"""Cwt""""LbCwtLb

60.0134.416.02.523.471.9160.2

5,66929.167.311.443.246.937.034.9

1,455

20.4855

2,7021,3531,44638.9

1,510

62561990422.536.6

2,061

1,4051,6111,9201,223

1,56050,0001,625

78343199233278356109148

59.5133.5

2.603.571.9960.0

5,94528.768.3

42.747.828.534.1

2,660

37.01,404

588576

1,09322.337.6

1,949

1,669

46,0001,813

229270289

352,1259,761,085

94,525151,33882,01069,328

165,981188,05112,161

519,9333,487

2,547,3211,880,733

138,119528,469

1,588,6205,3656,708

81,7503,963,440

6,360412,085

2,741,0145,273,162

13,918.213,475.9

442.332,60634,707

1,479,179

10430,8285,9341,938

674

9,50018,00059,5489,727

475,7712,980

21,12118,933

432,7372,987

12,3826,000

284,0739,466,977

161,38585,48775,898

147,906212,29610,993

580,361

2,317,5911,698,369

110,042509,180

6,210

3,821,200

2,696,2725,043,370

16,430.015,726.0

704.034,00937,134

1,268,992

31,755

16,10062,080

4,07023,20518,606

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.


Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-00(Domestic Units) 1

Crop UnitProduction

1998 1999 2000

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

Grapefruit K-Early Citrus (FL) Lemons Oranges Tangelos (FL) Tangerines Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus Apples Apricots Bananas (HI) Grapes Olives (CA) Papayas (HI) Peaches Pears Prunes, Dried (CA) Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc. Almonds (CA) Hazelnuts Pecans Pistachios (CA) Walnuts (CA) Maple Syrup

Ton""""""

1,000 LbsTonLbTon"Lb1,000 LbsTon""

LbTonLb"Ton1,000 Gal

2,5932

89713,670

128360101

11,387.4118.3

21,000.05,903.0

90.039,900.02,429.3

955.1108.025.6

520,00015.5

146,400188,000

227.01,159

2,5204

7479,886

11532781

10,614.8130.0

6,554.9125.0

2,502.1942.9180.025.1

830,00038.0

323,900110,000

280.01,180

2,6353

92712,110

11741695

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports.2 Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00.


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99(Metric Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 1998 1999

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All 3

Alfalfa All Other Oats Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 3

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower


Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco


Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 3

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 4/

2,564,52032,450,880

1,979,7401,353,690

633,7403,895,550

26,637,10018,797,4501,539,8506,299,810

456,090

135,98040,020

615,5301,940

122,62029,147,8001,443,930

5,419,8105,286,990

132,820606,550

3,640813,470130,88065,560

573,2806,270

37,64029,540

499,830

35,290

2,113,70031,408,400

1,889,9001,456,880

640,2203,763,210

25,494,66017,573,6601,649,1106,271,890

443,140

138,00024,160

594,0801,420

126,67030,005,7401,487,640

5,908,9605,780,190

128,770631,560

806,390

70,7407,320

35,49027,920

492,260

35,650

2,373,10029,382,1102,395,360

24,287,8809,567,680

14,720,1901,114,9201,342,360

169,1603,125,420

123,43023,877,52016,238,5901,508,6806,130,240

441,920

133,14038,690

593,6801,900

115,34028,506,7701,413,180

4,323,5504,228,520

95,020587,490385,060290,430

2,990774,540125,09064,140

2,470150

14,83050,180

561,5906,070

36,66027,560

491,29011,09033,910

200

1,933,61028,702,640

25,111,4209,699,610

15,411,810997,560

1,445,150155,000

3,439,460

21,982,36014,383,4901,561,7006,037,170

431,800

135,17023,550

581,3401,420

118,98029,455,7701,454,050

5,424,9505,299,820

125,130617,310399,510263,490

770,130

14013,860

67,9907,200

34,72026,060

485,750

34,480

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.


Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99(Metric Units) 1

CropYield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All 2

Alfalfa All Other Oats Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 2

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower


Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco


Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 2

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3/

3.238.44

35.805.657.784.272.166.351.834.23

25.632.903.152.492.35

1.63

1.280.963.031.521.622.621.69

0.700.691.01

50.3580.242.31

1.581.812.151.37

1.7556.041.820.09

38.4322.2726.1331.1639.950.12

16.56

3.208.38

5.838.004.472.156.661.804.29

2.873.211.922.30

2.98

2.491.57

0.660.651.22

49.9884.322.18

1.87

51.562.03

25.6330.3132.38

7,666,620247,942,98085,751,640

137,291,52074,398,22062,893,3002,409,2108,529,850

308,90013,206,9103,163,350

69,326,72051,185,1603,758,980

14,382,570

720,5904,867,410

170,39037,080

1,797,7902,880

186,92074,598,1802,391,870

3,030,3302,934,030

96,30029,579,67030,895,990

670,940

4,7201,398,330

269,16087,91030,570

4,3108,160

27,0104,410

21,580,610135,170958,030858,790

19,628,6201,350

561,6402,720

6,184,960240,472,290

146,406,01077,552,50068,853,5102,146,8509,629,590

279,24014,741,850

63,074,49046,222,0302,994,850

13,857,610

5,633,620

1,733,270

73,380,5002,287,630

3,577,2103,423,930

153,28030,852,45033,687,400

575,610

1,440,380

7,30028,160

184,6101,052,560

843,950

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.


Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-00(Metric Units) 1

CropProduction

1998 1999 2000

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

Grapefruit K-Early Citrus (FL) Lemons Oranges Tangelos (FL) Tangerines Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus Apples Apricots Bananas (HI) Grapes Olives (CA) Papayas (HI) Peaches Pears Prunes, Dried (CA) Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc. Almonds (CA) Hazelnuts Pecans Pistachios (CA) Walnuts (CA) Maple Syrup

2,352,3301,810

813,74012,401,220

116,120326,59091,630

5,165,240107,320

9,5305,355,070

81,65018,100

1,101,910866,49097,98023,220

235,87014,06066,41085,280

205,9305,790

2,286,1103,630

677,6708,968,430

104,330296,65073,480

4,814,790117,930

5,946,510113,400

1,134,930855,380163,29022,770

376,48034,470

146,92049,900

254,0105,900

2,390,4302,720

840,96010,986,010

106,140377,39086,180

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports.2 Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00.


September Weather Summary

Three tropical systems--Hurricane Floyd and Tropical Storms Dennis and Harvey--and several strong cold fronts contributedto drought-ending rains along the Atlantic Seaboard, but Floyd caused extensive flooding and widespread crop and propertydamage in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. In contrast, mostly dry weather resulted in intensification of the Ohio Valley’s 14-month drought, and a depletion of topsoil moisture from central Texas to the southern Appalachians. Farther north, mostlydry conditions favored rapid Midwestern corn and soybean harvesting, although a late-month storm system halted fieldworkfrom western Missouri to the vicinity of Lake Michigan. The same system dumped locally excessive rainfall in southern andeastern Kansas, washing out some newly planted winter wheat. Meanwhile, a mid- to late-month transition to drier weatheraided final small grain harvesting on the northern Plains. Farther west, however, little or no rain fell across the drought-affected interior Northwest, causing some producers to delay winter wheat seeding due to lack of moisture. In the Southwest,showers from a lingering monsoon and the remnants of eastern Pacific Hurricane Hilary yielded to seasonably dry conditionstoward month’s end. In California, warm weather promoted fieldwork and summer crop maturation. In contrast, several late-month frosts and freezes ended the growing season a few days earlier than normal north and west of a line from southeasternColorado to central Wisconsin. The freezes did not significantly affect mature or nearly mature summer crops, but burnedback emerging winter wheat, especially in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Washington.

Significantly above-normal temperatures were confined to New England (up to 8 degrees F above normal in northern Maine)and the interior Far West (up to 5 degrees F above normal near Lake Tahoe). In contrast, temperatures averaged as much as 5degrees F below normal on the Plains and 3 degrees F below normal in the western Corn Belt.

Monthly rainfall topped 8 inches from eastern Florida northward to eastern New York and New England, and in a few areasacross the eastern portions of Kansas and Oklahoma. Totals exceeded 16 inches in several locations from extremenortheastern South Carolina into southeastern Virginia. In contrast, less than 1 inch of rain fell in the middle and lower OhioValley, central and southwestern Texas, and portions of the northwestern Corn Belt. No rain fell in most areas from easternWashington southward into the northern portions of California and Nevada, but more than 4 inches soaked parts of northernArizona.

General Crop Comments: Tropical Storm Dennis delivered heavy rains to parts of the middle Atlantic Coastal Plains earlyin the month, recharging moisture levels and revitalizing late summer crops. A cold front delivered rain to parts of thenorthern Great Plains and extreme western Corn Belt, and cooler temperatures for the rest of the Corn Belt. Crops benefitedfrom the moisture but the small grain harvest was delayed in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas in thenorthern Great Plains. Farther west, in the High Plains and Pacific Northwest, dry weather aided small grain harvest progress. Harvest gained momentum in the southern Corn Belt, where warm, dry weather quickly ripened row crops. Field preparationscontinued in most areas of the Great Plains, but many growers delayed winter wheat seeding due to dry soils. Cropdevelopment slowly progressed in the Southwest due to below normal temperatures.

As mid-month approached, above normal temperatures quickly ripened crops in the Southern and Eastern States. As cropsmatured, the harvest pace accelerated in the southern Corn Belt, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Heavy rains haltedwinter wheat seeding in parts of the central and southern Great Plains but recharged depleted soil moisture supplies. Smallgrain harvest and winter wheat seeding were aided by dry weather in the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest. Tropical Storm Dennis provided much-needed moisture in the Northeast, but areas around the lower Great Lakes remaineddry.

As mid-month passed, crops along the Atlantic Coast from South Carolina to New England were damaged by HurricaneFloyd's strong winds and heavy rainfall. The worst damage was in North Carolina and Virginia. Warm daytime temperaturespromoted ripening, and dry weather aided harvest progress in the Corn Belt and Southeast. In the Great Plains, fieldwork andwinter wheat seeding progressed with virtually no rain delays. Adequate soil moisture and cool weather aided emergence andgrowth in early-planted wheat fields. In the Pacific Northwest, recently seeded winter wheat emerged, despite dry soils. Cropdevelopment and harvest progress continued to lag in the Southwest.

Near the end of the month, freezing temperatures halted crop development in the upper Mississippi Valley, and frost nippedthe tops of green soybeans in parts of the northern Corn Belt. However, crop damage was minimal. Dry weather prevailedover most of the Nation, providing nearly ideal harvest conditions in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and lower MississippiValley. In the Great Plains and Pacific Northwest, field tillage and winter wheat seeding also benefited from dry weather. Moisture supplies remained mostly adequate for germinating seeds, even though rainfall was below normal in most areas. Apocket of showers improved soil moisture levels in eastern Oklahoma. Additional rain and lingering wetness stressed cropsand hindered harvest progress along the Atlantic Coastal Plains. A heat wave accelerated crop development in California, butmaturity and harvest progress continued to lag behind normal.

As the month came to an end, harvest progress accelerated in most areas east of the Rocky Mountains, as dry conditionsprevailed in most areas. A narrow band of heavy rainfall extending from Kansas to the Great Lakes delayed harvest activitiesin parts of the Corn Belt. Harvest rapidly progressed in the Mississippi Delta with only isolated rain delays. In the AtlanticCoastal Plains, a wet weather pattern continued to limit harvest progress. Winter wheat seeding was aided by favorably dryweather in most of the Great Plains, although some areas needed moisture to germinate recently planted fields. In the PacificNorthwest, growers delayed planting because of soil moisture shortages. Warm weather ripened crops in California, and theharvest pace accelerated due to favorably dry conditions.

Corn for grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 70.9 million acres, down 30,000 acres fromlast month and 2 percent from 1998. The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count for the sevenobjective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record ears per acrewas set in 1998.


As of October 3, ninety-four percent of the acreage was reported mature in the 17 major States. This compares with95 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Twenty-nine percent of the acreage was harvested, equal to oneyear ago but ahead of the 5-year average of 19 percent. Temperatures were below-normal in some areas of the Corn Belt, butgenerally dry weather provided ideal ripening conditions and allowed rapid harvest progress. The northern Corn Beltexperienced frost in late-September, but little corn was damaged due to the advanced maturity of the crop.

In Iowa, forecasted ear counts are the highest on record. The corn crop was mature as of October 3, compared to 99 percentin 1998 and the average of 92 percent. Eighteen percent of the crop was harvested, equal to last year but ahead of the averageof 11 percent.

Forecasted ear counts are at a record high for Illinois when compared to final levels. Ninety-eight percent of the corn wasmature, compared to 94 percent last year and 87 percent for the average. Forty-three percent of the crop was harvested,compared with 31 percent in 1998 and the average of 18 percent.

In Nebraska and Wisconsin, forecasted ear counts are also at record high levels. Ninety-one percent of the crop was mature inboth Nebraska and Wisconsin, both behind last year but well ahead of the average. Seventeen percent of the Nebraskaacreage was harvested, compared with 30 percent for last year and the average of 14 percent. In Wisconsin, 16 percent of thecorn was harvested, equal to 1998 but ahead of the average of 9 percent.

Forecasted ear counts in Indiana are the highest on record and Ohio ear counts are the second highest on record. Ninety-ninepercent of the corn in Indiana was mature, compared to 94 percent in 1998 and the average of 83 percent. In Ohio, 93 percentof the corn was mature, well ahead of 82 percent in 1998 and the average of 56 percent. Forty percent of the Indiana acreagewas harvested and 26 percent of Ohio’s crop was harvested, both well ahead of last year and the average.

Minnesota objective yield data indicate the fourth highest ear count on record. Ninety-five percent of the corn acreage wasmature by October 3, compared with 99 percent a year ago and the average of 88 percent. Nine percent of the crop washarvested, well behind 27 percent in 1998 and slightly behind the average of 11 percent.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 580 million bushels, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but12 percent higher than the 1998 total. Area harvested and to be harvested is unchanged from September at 8.50 million acres,up 10 percent from the previous year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 68.3 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from last month and1 bushel above last year.

Compared to September, forecasted yields in Arkansas and Nebraska each increased by 2 bushels per acre, while Coloradolowered their forecast by 4 bushels. Record yields are expected in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. As of October 3,seventy-seven percent of the crop was mature in the top 12 producing States, 2 points ahead of the average. Harvest, at40 percent complete, was 4 points ahead of normal.

Rice: Production is forecast at a record high 212 million cwt, up slightly from September 1 and 13 percent above 1998. Harvested acreage, at 3.57 million acres, reflects an increase in Mississippi and Missouri while the acres decreased inCalifornia and Texas from last month.

The average yield is forecast at 5,945 pounds per acre, down 22 pounds from last month but up 276 pounds from 1998. Yieldprospects in California, Mississippi, and Texas decreased while Arkansas and Louisiana increased from a month ago.

As of October 3, Arkansas harvest was 87 percent complete, ahead of last year and the 5-year average. California harvestlags 9 points behind the average. Harvest in Louisiana and Texas was virtually complete as of October 3.

Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 72.8 million acres of soybeans, up 3 percent from 1998 but down 1 percent from theSeptember forecast. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 475,000 acres in nine states due to abandonment orharvested for hay. The States with the largest acreage reductions are North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio, and Tennessee. Downward adjustments to harvested acres were also made in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina.

As of October 3, the percent of the soybeans dropping leaves had reached 88 percent, 1 percentage point ahead of 1998 andahead of the 82 percent 5-year average. Crop maturity was most advanced in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio,where 96 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves.

Overall, soybeans were rated in mostly fair to good condition during September. Much of the Delta and southern growingregions continued to show very poor conditions, as soil moisture problems persisted. Freezing temperatures halted cropdevelopment and assisted in drying the crop in areas of northern Corn Belt and Great Plains during the last two weeks ofSeptember.

In the seventeen non-objective yield States that make yield forecasts in October, four States reduced yields from September.In the drought stricken States, yields were decreased an additional 3 bushels in Tennessee and 2 bushels in Alabama andKentucky. Yields were also lowered 3 bushels in North Carolina as a result of damage caused by the hurricanes and tropicalstorms that frequented the State. Yield increases were made in Virginia and Wisconsin, while no changes to yield were madein the remaining eleven States.


Despite some delays caused by rain, soybean harvest was progressing well ahead of normal as of October 3, with 32 percentof the acreage harvested, 6 percentage points ahead of normal but 6 percentage points behind last year’s pace. Harvest wasover 50 percent complete in Indiana, Louisiana, and Ohio and over 30 percent complete in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, andMinnesota.

If realized, pod counts from the October Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Iowa and Nebraska. Allother objective yield States, except for Minnesota, were showing fewer pods than 1998 final counts.

Sunflower: The first Sunflower production forecast for 1999 is 5.04 billion pounds, down 4 percent from 1998 and37 percent above 1997. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 3.59 million acres, an increase of 3 percent above 1998 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,404 pounds, is 106 pounds lower than the final harvested 1998 yield.

Higher yields are expected in four of the seven major sunflower growing states; Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas. Yields in Colorado, North Dakota, and South Dakota are expected to be lower.

In North Dakota, yield is forecast at 1,380 pounds per acre, down 137 pounds below 1998. Harvest of sunflowers was justbeginning as of October 3. Harvest in North Dakota was 1 percent complete. South Dakota and Minnesota harvest progresswere 9 percent and 5 percent complete, respectively.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.82 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast and down 4 percentfrom last year’s crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.44 million acres, down 1 percent from September and down2 percent from 1998. This change from last month’s acreage occurred in North Carolina and Virginia, due to damaging rainsfrom Tropical Storm Dennis and Hurricane Floyd. Yields are expected to average 2,660 pounds, unchanged from last monthbut down 42 pounds from last year.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.09 billion pounds,down slightly from last month and down 5 percent from last year’s level. Yields in the 4-State area are expected to average2,507 pounds per acre, down 2 pounds from September 1 and 133 pounds below 1998. Yield prospects in Alabama, Florida,and Georgia were unchanged from last month while South Carolina decreased 200 pounds. Fifty-seven percent ofAlabama’s crop was in fair to good condition in early October. As of October 3, harvest was 6 points ahead of the 5-yearaverage. Georgia’s acreage was rated 68 percent fair to good. Harvest was equal to the average of 52 percent in earlyOctober. The South Carolina crop was 76 percent fair to good. Harvest was 17 points behind the average.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 496 million pounds, down 16 percent from last month and down20 percent from 1998. Yield is forecast at 2,626 pounds, 312 pounds down from last month and down 474 pounds from lastyear. Seventy-two percent of the North Carolina crop was rated in fair to good condition in early October. Harvest in NorthCarolina was 10 percent complete, 6 points behind average. The yield potential for the State resulted in a significant decreasedue to Hurricane Floyd. In Virginia, 89 percent of the crop was rated fair to good.

Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.23 billion pounds, up 6 percent fromlast month and up 8 percent from 1998. Yields are expected to average 2,987 pounds, 349 pounds above 1998. The tri-statearea crop condition was rated mostly good to excellent. The Oklahoma harvest is 6 percent behind average, with 8 percentharvested. Texas acreage is 18 percent harvested compared to 17 percent for the average.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.1 million acres, is down 150,000 acres from September, but up 25 percentfrom last year. The change in harvested acreage occurred in five States. Missouri’s acreage was decreased 70,000 acres,Oklahoma shows a 20,000 acre decrease, Tennessee was lowered 30,000 acres. The affects of Hurricane Floyd are apparentin North Carolina, where 60,000 acres are estimated to be abandoned. Arkansas’ harvested acreage was increased to960,000. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 309,200 acres, reflects a decrease of 7,000 acres in Texas. This revisedacreage level is 32 percent above 1998.

Texas cotton continues to show good development. However, this development has been slowed in the past few weeks due tocooler temperatures and widely scattered showers. There are some concerns about new growth on the Plains. The growth isresulting from heavy rains early in September. Maturation of dryland fields has been aided by increased moisture over thepast two weeks. For the week ending September 26, seventy-four percent of the cotton acreage was showing open bolls. Thiscompares to 60 percent for the 5-year average. The overall condition of cotton remained steady throughout September. OnSeptember 26, thirty-six percent of the acreage was rated as good to excellent, compared to 37 percent at the end of August. Harvest is nearing completion in the Coastal Bend, but heavy rains continue to interrupt progress. Statewide, twenty-fourpercent of the acreage was harvested on October 3, compared to 27 percent normally harvested. Cotton objective yield surveydata indicate Texas’ crop has the ninth lowest count of large bolls and the eighth lowest boll weight since 1990. Oklahoma’sharvested acreage is revised down 20,000 acres. Production is also revised down due to a decrease in the overall condition ofthe crop. Defoliants are being applied by some growers in the Southwest district.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) continue to experience warm, dry weather. This has resulted in accelerated maturity of the crop and allowed for harvest to progress ahead of schedule. On October3, Arkansas reported 43 percent of their acreage harvested, compared to 21 percent on average. Louisiana and Mississippireported 66 percent and 52 percent harvested, respectively. Missouri and Tennessee reported 59 percent and 47 percentharvested, respectively. These reports range from 13 to 39 percent ahead of average. While the weather has allowed for early


harvest, it continues to deteriorate the condition of the cotton. Arkansas’ cotton was rated 48 percent good to excellent as ofSeptember 26, compared to 59 percent at the end of August. Similarly, Louisiana experienced an 18 percent decline in thegood to excellent rating during the month, Mississippi’s rating decreased 28 percent, and Missouri and Tennessee declined3 and 11 percent, respectively. Data from objective yield surveys show large boll counts for Arkansas ranked second, andMississippi’s ranked third since 1990. Louisiana’s number of large bolls are the ranked fifth during this time period. Bollweights in Arkansas and Mississippi were the lowest in the last 10 years, while Louisiana ranked ninth for this time period.

Warmer weather finally allowed for accelerated growth in California and Arizona during the second half of September. However, due to the unusually cool growing season prior to mid-September, the crop progress was still about a week behindnormal. As of September 26, California reported 70 percent of their acreage having open bolls. This compares to 86 percenton average. On the same date, Arizona reported 95 percent of their acreage having open bolls, compared to 98 percent onaverage. California’s cotton continues to be rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with 90 percent good to excellent onSeptember 26. Arizona rated 57 percent in these categories and an additional 35 percent as fair. October 1 cotton objectiveyield counts show California large boll numbers ranked sixth and boll weights ranked last since 1990.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the cotton crop condition continues todecline. North Carolina was adversely affected by Hurricane Floyd and it’s torrential rainfall. Sixty thousand acres were lostand yield potential on other fields was greatly reduced. In South Carolina, the hurricane provided wind and rainfall in theeastern portion of the State, reducing potential yields in many fields. Georgia and Alabama continued to experience dryweather throughout most of the month, but this was tempered due to seasonal temperatures. The month of September sawNorth Carolina cotton condition ratings fall 27 percent in the good to excellent categories. South Carolina experienced adecline of 4 percent. Harvest is getting underway in the Southeastern States, with Alabama reporting 32 percent harvested asof October 3. This compares to 21 percent on average. Georgia is 3 percent ahead of average, with 18 percent harvested onOctober 3. The Carolinas are behind average due to excessively wet, muddy fields from Hurricane Floyd. However, bothStates have been able to begin harvesting in some fields.

American-Pima production is forecast at 704,000 bales, up 59 percent from last year’s output, and up 15,500 bales fromSeptember. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,093 pounds per harvested acre, up 189 pounds from last year. California’sproduction is up 20,000 bales from the September forecast, while Arizona’s production is unchanged. New Mexico’sforecast is up 500 bales from the previous month. Texas harvested acreage is revised down 7,000 acres and is now estimatedat 32,000 acres. This decrease in acreage resulted in a production level 5,000 bales below the September 1 forecast, despitean increase of 87 pounds per harvested acres.

Ginnings totaled 2,707,600 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,056,400 running bales ginned prior to the samedate last year and 1,210,450 running bales in 1997.

All Hay: Production is forecast at a record high 161 million tons, up slightly from the August forecast but 7 percent higherthan 1998. The all hay yield is forecast at 2.60 tons per acre (also a record), up 0.08 tons from last year. Area harvested andto be harvested for all hay is unchanged from August, at 62.1 million acres, but up 3 percent from the previous year.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: U.S. production is forecast at 85.5 million tons, 4 percent above 1998 and 9 percent above1997. Yields are expected to average a record high 3.57 tons per acre, up 0.10 tons from both last year and August. Areaharvested and to be harvested is unchanged from August, at 24.0 million acres, up 1 percent from 1998.

Among the top ten producing States, Iowa and Minnesota showed the largest increases in yield, each up 0.50 tons per acrefrom the August forecast. Forecasted production in California (the largest producer) is unchanged from August but 4 percenthigher than last year due to more favorable weather conditions.

All Other Hay: Production is forecast at a record high 75.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 1998 and 3 percent above 1997. Yields are expected to average 1.99 tons per acre, down 0.05 tons from August but up 0.08 tons from last year. Areaharvested and to be harvested is unchanged from August at 38.1 million acres, 5 percent above last year’s total.

Production in Texas is expected to total 11.8 million tons, unchanged from August but 88 percent higher than last year’sdrought stricken crop. Forecasted yields are lower than last year in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northwest. Most otherareas of the U.S. are expecting better yields than in 1998.

Dry Beans: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 31.8 million cwt for 1999, up 3 percent from a year ago and8 percent above 1997. Total production is forecast 1 percent higher than August 1. A 12 percent increase in yield forMichigan from the August forecast was more than enough to offset a decrease in yields from the August forecast for Idaho,Minnesota, Nebraska, and New York. The average yield of 1,669 pounds per acre is 58 pounds higher than 1998 but 1 poundlower than two years ago. Average yields were at or above 1998 for all states except for Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska,New York, North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.90 million acres, unchanged fromAugust but down 1 percent from last year.


Harvest progress during September was one to two weeks behind normal in North Dakota due to late maturity and wet, coolconditions during the first half of September. As of September 26, 50 percent of the crop was combined, well behind theaverage of 67 percent. In Michigan, harvest has advanced ahead of normal. Timely rains lessened the effect of root rot anddry late season conditions held white mold in check, resulting in a record yield of 1,900 pounds per acre. The previous recordyield in Michigan was in 1991, at 1,850 pounds per acre. In Nebraska, rain and hail damaged some of the growing areas andreduced the size of the crop. By September 26, 75 percent of the dry beans were harvested in Nebraska, ahead of the average. In Minnesota, 41 percent of the crop had been harvested, well below the 5 year average of 69 percent. Good quality isreported in California, with growers busy harvesting their crop. Two thirds of the acreage is harvested in Colorado, behindlast year’s progress of 77 percent. In Idaho, 84 percent of the crop had been harvested by September 26, well ahead of the72 percent average.

Harvest continues in Kansas, Montana, New York, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Some areasin Kansas are having difficulty completing harvest due to wet field conditions. In New York, yields are lower than what wasexpected in August. However, the late planted beans are yielding better than the earlier planted varieties. In Wyoming,73 percent of the crop had been combined as of September 26, compared with 71 percent for 1998 and 78 percent on average.

Winter Potatoes: The final 1999 winter potato production is estimated at 4.07 million cwt, up 37 percent from a year earlierand 19 percent above 1997. Winter harvest was taken from 17,800 acres in 1999, up 19 percent from last year and 11 percentabove 1997. The average yield of 229 cwt per acre was up 30 cwt from a year earlier and 15 cwt above 1997. Californiaproduction gained 44 percent from a year earlier and Florida production increased 29 percent.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1999 is forecast at 1.27 billion pounds, down 14 percent from 1998 and down29 percent from 1997. Harvested acres are expected to total 651,090, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down9 percent from 1998. Yields for 1999 are expected to average 1,949 pounds per acre, 112 pounds below a year ago. Tobaccogrowers in eastern North Carolina suffered losses in Flue-cured yields due to Hurricane Floyd. Harvested acres also declined10,000 from the previous forecast. Growers in Kentucky had harvested 95 percent of their crop by late September. Burleytobacco yields remained unchanged from the previous forecast. Dark types increased slightly from last month since most of itis produced in western Kentucky where moisture was adequate through August.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 659 million pounds, down 6 percent from last month and down 19 percent from1998. Growers plan to harvest 306,000 acres in 1999, down3 percent from last month and 17 percent below last year. Yieldis expected to average2,153 pounds per acre, down 64 pounds from last month and down 51 pounds from a year ago. Most ofthis decline resulted from the Hurricane Floyd damage in eastern North Carolina. Growers experienced flooding, winddamage, and lack of mobility in some areas, but some fields were already over 50 percent harvested.

Burley production is expected to total 534 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from last month and down 8 percent froma year ago. Yield is expected to average 1,747 pounds per acre, a decline of 7 pounds from the previous forecast and down149 pounds from 1998. Burley tobacco growers plan to harvest 305,700 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast andslightly below a year ago. Kentucky’s acreage, at 215,000, remained unchanged from a month ago and is the same as lastyear. Yield also remained unchanged from last month, at 1,750 pounds per acre, but declined 185 pounds from last year. Tennessee’s dark fired tobacco yields remained unchanged from last month and burley also remained the same. Burley yieldsare 45 pounds below a year ago. Early planted tobacco yielded well, whereas late planted tobacco produced poor yields.

Cigar wrapper tobacco production increased 2 percent from the previous forecast, but showed a decline of 17 percent from ayear ago. Yields were variable but increased 31 pounds per acre from a month ago and 21 pounds from last year.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at a record high 34.0 million tons, 4 percent above the previous record in 1998. Growersin the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1,525,400 acres, 5 percent more than last year and the highest since1,540,500 acres were harvested in 1969. The yield is forecast at 22.3 tons per acre, slightly below the 1998 yield of 22.5 tons.

In California and Colorado, yield prospects and sucrose content benefited from nearly ideal weather conditions. Yieldprospects diminished in Michigan due to moisture shortages in September. The harvest season began and progress graduallygained momentum, as dry weather prevailed in most of the sugarbeet-producing States.

Sugarcane: Production is forecast at a record high 37.1 million tons, 7 percent above the previous record of 34.7 milliontons set last year. U.S. sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 987,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 1999crop year, 4 percent more than last year’s final harvested acres. The record high acreage is due to a 30,000 acre expansion inLouisiana and a 9,000 acre increase in Florida. Yield is forecast at 37.6 tons per acre, 1.0 ton above 1998. A record highyield is forecast for Louisiana due to ideal growing conditions, expanded acreage of a high yielding sugarcane hybrid, andincreased utilization of a more efficient harvester. In Florida and Lousiana, mills were preparing for the harvest season,which was expected to begin in early October. In Hawaii, harvest was underway and progressing with few delays.


Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecasted at 6.55 million tons, up 11 percent from 1998 but down 10 percent from 1997. California's all grape forecast, at 5.90 million tons, increased 10 percent from 1998. All but three forecasting states areshowing increases from a year ago. Arizona and Michigan are down from last year while South Carolina remainedunchanged.

Raisin varieties account for 2.25 million tons of California's total production, 2.90 million tons are wine varieties, and750,000 tons are table varieties. Picking of Thompson Seedless for fresh use, wine crush, and raisins was still active in lateSeptember. Growers continued to pick table grape varieties in the San Joaquin Valley. Quality of fruit was rated good. Winegrape harvest also continued with good quality reported.

Washington's production is forecast at 275,000 tons, down 4 percent from the August 1 forecast but up 24 percent from lastyear. The crop in Michigan is forecast at 68,000 tons, up 5 percent from the August forecast but down 3 percent from lastyear. This year’s crop is expected to produce better yields than a year ago. Michigan’s juice grapes benefitted from the hotweather, which produced high sugar content. Grape production in New York is forecast at 189,000 tons, up 2 percent fromAugust and up 48 percent from the previous year. Growers expect an excellent crop with minimal problems from diseases orinsects. Pennsylvania’s grape production is forecast at 73,000 tons, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and 35 percentfrom last year. Growers indicated that dry conditions were conducive to a good crop.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1999-00 grapefruit crop for United States is 2.64 million tons, up 5 percent from lastseason and up 2 percent from the 1997-98 season. The October 1 Florida grapefruit crop is forecast at 50.0 million boxes(2.13 million tons), 6 percent higher than the previous season and 1 percent higher than the 1997-98 utilization. The whiteseedless forecast, at 20.5 million boxes (871,000 tons), is up 15 percent from last year and up 12 percent from two years ago. More fruit per tree led to the higher forecast even though there are fewer bearing trees. The colored seedless utilization isforecast at 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons), 1 percent above the previous season but 5 percent lower than the 1997-98season. Despite fewer trees, the forecast is larger than last year due to more fruit per tree. The seedy grapefruit crop isexpected to total 500,000 boxes (21,000 tons), 9 percent less than the previous season.

California’s October 1 forecast for grapefruit is 8.00 million boxes (268,000 tons), 7 percent more than last year’s utilizationbut the same level as two seasons ago. Harvest of the 1999-00 crop will be underway soon. Grapefruit production in Texas isforecast at 5.50 million boxes (220,000 tons), down 10 percent from the previous season. Harvest is underway and quality isexcellent. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast is 650,000 boxes (22,000 tons), continuing the downward trend since the 1991-92season.

Lemons: The initial 1999-00 lemon forecast for United States is 927,000 tons, up 24 percent from last season and up3 percent from the 1997-98 crop. California production is forecast at 20.5 million boxes (779,000 tons), 27 percent morethan a year ago but 2 percent less than two seasons ago. Quality in the central valley is fair but desert area quality is excellent. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.90 million boxes (148,000 tons), up 13 percent from the previous season and up50 percent from the 1997-98 crop. Harvesting is just underway in western areas.

Tangelos: The first 1999-00 tangelo forecast from Florida is 2.60 million boxes (117,000 tons), 2 percent more than lastseason’s utilized production but 9 percent below the 2.85 million boxes from the 1997-98 crop. Larger fruit size and lessprojected droppage contributed to the increased forecast.

Temples: Florida’s initial 1999-00 Temple forecast is 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), 17 percent higher than the1.80 million boxes recorded last season but 7 percent less than the 1997-98 season. Total population of fruit is up, despite thedownward trend in the number of bearing trees. Fruit size is virtually the same as last season. Fruit loss from droppage isprojected to be higher than a year ago but well below the 9-season average.

Tangerines: The 1999-00 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 416,000 tons, up 27 percent from the freeze damaged crop lastseason and up 16 percent from two seasons ago. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons),29 percent higher than last year and 23 percent higher than the 1997-98 season. Larger fruit and more fruit per tree led to theincrease in the forecast. California’s tangerine forecast is 2.30 million boxes (86,000 tons), 53 percent larger than last year’sfreeze damaged crop. The crop is maturing well and harvesting should begin later in October. Arizona’s tangerine forecast is700,000 boxes (26,000 tons), down 26 percent from a year ago but up 17 percent from the 1997-98 crop.


K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 1999-00 is 70,000 boxes (3,150 tons), 10,000 boxes fewer than lastseason but 30,000 boxes more than the record low use in the 1997-98 season.

Florida citrus: Rainfall during the month of September was mostly above normal. Many of Florida's citrus producingcounties reported surplus moisture with some standing water. Hurricane Floyd, tropical depression Harvey, and several heavydownpours accounted for most of the precipitation. The rains helped produce an abundance of new growth on all ages oftrees. However, due to excessive moisture, there is an increase in fruit splitting in some groves. New crop fruit is makinggood progress considering the varying bloom from last spring. Maturity is lagging in most crops. There are a few fresh fruitpacking houses shipping early bloom white and colored grapefruit, Navels, Fallglo hybrids, and some Ambersweet oranges. Caretakers have been very active mowing, chopping, and discing cover crops. Growers in most areas have completed theirfall fertilizing. Spraying for fresh crops continues. Pushing and burning of dead trees has been reported in most of the largergroves.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is underway on early oranges and grapefruit. Early quality is excellent. The water supply is betterthan last year. Beneficial rain has also fallen across the Rio Grande Valley.

California Citrus: The new crop navel oranges are maturing well. Harvest is expected to begin by mid-October in KernCounty. Picking of Valencia oranges was active in southern California and good quality was reported. Lemon harvestcontinued in the south coast area. In the central valley, quality is fair with slight decay but quality is excellent in the desertarea. Grapefruit picking was active. The tangerine harvest should begin by mid-October. The crop is maturing well.

California Fruits and Nuts: Crop harvesting dominated grower activities in September. Picking grapes for fresh usecontinued. Major varieties that were picked included Red Globe, Flame Seedless, Ruby Seedless, Crimson Seedless, andThompson Seedless. For raisins, one fourth of the crop is on open trays, one half rolled, and one fourth picked up. Therewere a few scattered showers the third week of September, but the grapes suffered no damage. Wine grape harvest was alsoactive. Stone fruit harvest was winding down by late September. Bartlett pear harvest was completed in early September, butAsian and other pear varieties continue to be picked. Apple harvest was active with Granny Smith the primary variety pickedin September. Almond, pistachio, and walnut harvests were active throughout the month. Fall strawberries were picked inthe San Joaquin Valley.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1999 apple crop stands at 10.6 billion pounds, up fractionally from the August 1 forecastbut down 7 percent from last year’s production. Reduced prospects in most of the Western States more than offset projectedincreases in the Central and Eastern States when compared to last year.

The Eastern States expect to produce 2.75 billion pounds, up slightly from the August 1 forecast and 18 percent above a yearago. The New York production forecast was increased 20 million pounds from August because the drought conditionsreduced disease and insect problems and the rain from Hurricane Floyd helped size up later varieties. West Virginia alsoforecasts an increase from August of 8 percent due to excellent growing conditions in September. The Virginia forecast wasunchanged from August with some varieties hurt by dry conditions and other varieties helped by the late rains. NorthCarolina and Pennsylvania are forecasting decreases in production of 10 and 2 percent, respectively, from the August 1forecast. Both states expect poor fruit sizing due to the drought and some drop due to high winds from Hurricane Floyd.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.53 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the August 1 forecast and 16 percentabove last year. Michigan forecast was up 50 million pounds from the August forecast due to excellent growing conditions inSeptember.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 6.34 billion pounds, unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 18 percentbelow 1998. The decline in production in the Western States from 1998 is due to a cool wet spring which reduced fruitcounts. Washington’s apple forecast was unchanged from August and growers report conditions have been good for fruitdevelopment.

Pecans: The first forecast for 1999 pecan production is 324 million pounds, compared to last year’s 146 million. Pecans areknown for their alternate bearing pattern as well as being subject to weather conditions. Improved varieties are expected to


account for 237 million pounds of the total, more than twice as large as 1998's 112 million. Native and seedling varieties areprojected to make up the difference of 86.7 million pounds.

The Georgia forecast, at 100 million pounds, is two and one-half times the size of the 1998 crop but the same as the 1997crop. The crop has been limited by lack of rain in non-irrigated orchards, disease, and reduction of growing area. Trees havebeen removed or are not being maintained due to low prices.

The Texas forecast is for 90.0 million pounds, three times the size of last year’s crop. Harvest has begun in the southern partof the State. Prospects in some areas have declined due to dry conditions. New Mexico production is projected to reach 50.0million pounds. The crop has been in good to excellent condition all season.

Arizona, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Florida, and California expect larger crops for1999. South Carolina expects the same size crop as 1998 while North Carolina is projecting a drop in production due tohurricane damage.

Hazelnuts: The October 1 hazelnut production forecast for Oregon and Washington remains at 38,000 tons for 1999. Thiswould be almost two and one-half times the size of last year’s crop but 19 percent less than the 1997 record production. Oregon is expected to account for 37,700 tons and Washington the remaining 300 tons.

Harvest has not yet started. The crop is 7 to 10 days later in maturing with many nuts still in the trees. Some shrivel ofkernels has been reported. Brown stain is not a significant problem this year.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.64 million pounds for September, 4 percent higher than lastmonth and 46 percent higher than September 1998. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,265 acres, 7 percent lowerthan August and 13 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,590 acres, was 21 percent lower than Augustand 31 percent lower than last September.

September weather conditions were a mix of sunshine, showers, and periods of gusty winds over major papaya producingorchards. An increased presence of the Rainbow variety, which is resistant to the Papaya Ringspot virus, has been noticed inthe marketplace as more orchards come into active harvest.


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 4 togather information on expected yields as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans, and cotton wereconducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selectedplots were revisited to make current counts. The counts within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of thatcrop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast thenumber of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop aprojected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each monthuntil crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, anotherplot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yields. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the seasonprogresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonablenessand consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progresscompared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situationto the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the publishedOctober 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each monththroughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, abalance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions arethen made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised anytime a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the lastestimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," astatistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the October 1production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentagedeviations for the 1979-1998 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean SquareError." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the finalend-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recentyears.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This meansthat chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 9.47 billion bushels will not be above or below the finalestimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately 360 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidencelevel) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 620 million bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast andthe final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates during thelast 20 years have averaged 201 million bushels, ranging from 4 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1forecast has been below the final estimate 12 times and above 8 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecastthis year is likely to understate or overstate final production.


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root MeanSquare Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecastand Final Estimate

Percent90

PercentConfidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest BelowFinal

AboveFinal

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn For GrainSorghum for GrainRiceSoybeans for BeansCotton 1Dry Edible Beans

BuBuCwtBuBalesCwt

3.85.93.13.24.23.6

6.610.15.35.67.26.2

201254

525200.6

4102

310.0

62410513

1191,424

2.6

1210109

1315

810101175

1 Quantity is in thousands of bales.


Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact foradditional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops SectionBrad Parks, Head (202) 720-3843Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688Lance Honig - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops SectionDean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488Howard Hill - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms (202) 690-0270Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10, 1999.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, nationalorigin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply toall programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print,audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th andIndependence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunityprovider and employer.

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INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS HomePage at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and thenSearch, by Title or Subject.

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USDA to Hold Public Forum

October 18, 1999

Holiday Inn Mart Plaza

Chicago, Illinois

The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open

forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide updates on

pending changes in the USDA statistical and information programs,

and to seek comments and input from data users. Other agencies to be

represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the

Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the

World Agricultural Outlook Board.

For registration details, see the NASS home page at

http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel (NASS) at

(202) 720-3896 or at [email protected]

Crop Production - Cornell University

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