Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will...

40
Critical Thinking Tools California Department of Human Resources Statewide Training www.calhr.ca.gov WORKSHOP PRESENTED BY The Los Rios Community College District’s Government Training Center Bruce Winner 916.563.3232 [email protected]

Transcript of Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will...

Page 1: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

California Department of Human Resources Statewide Training

www.calhr.ca.gov

WORKSHOP PRESENTED BY

The Los Rios Community College District’s Government Training Center

Bruce Winner916.563.3232

[email protected]

Page 2: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Table of Contents

Section 1: Overview 2

Section 2: Thinking Map 7

Section 3: Grid Analysis 20

Section 4: Force Field Analysis 24

Section 5: Root Cause Analysis 25

Section 6: Lateral Thinking 28

Action Plan 30

Appendix 31

Page 3: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

2

Section 1: Overview

Outcome Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better decisions.

Objectives Provide practical tools involved in critical thinking and Completed Staff

work. Analyze and evaluate the validity of arguments. Use critical thinking skills to analyze various situations. Use tools to overcome unconscious bias in decision making.

Critical Thinking Briefing The topic of Critical Thinking is more than a passing trend. It is one more way to gain a competitive advantage in career and professional development. Critical Thinking is independent thinking, which includes: Defending a position based on one’s own abilities and beliefs. Making a choice regardless of what others want you to do. Deciding without bias.

Critical Thinking is not: Unreflective thinking – the kind of thinking which occurs when someone

jumps to a conclusion, or accepts some evidence, claim or decision at face value, without really thinking about it.

Page 4: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

3

Critical thinking is a very broad topic that includes many other subjects/disciplines: Logic - Deductive and inductive reasoning Problem solving Research - Finding and validating resources Analysis and evaluation Decision making

Critical Thinking Skills In this course, we will consider five tools: Thinking Map – An approach to critical thinking, especially suited for

evaluating the validity of reasoning in documents. Grid Analysis – An approach to decision making, especially suited for

complex decisions that involve many alternatives and factors. Force Field Analysis – An approach to understanding factors that could

disrupt or ruin implementation of a decision. Fishbone Analysis – An approach to problem solving that goes beyond

symptoms and addresses the real cause of a problem. MindTrap – An approach to lateral thinking that encourages team

members to get out of their rut and think creatively.

Socratic Method

Assessment

Questioning

Decision Making

Intuition

Observation

Fact vs.

Opinion

o Analysis & Evaluation o Reasoning o Decision making

Logic

Analysis

Evaluation

Reasoning

Page 5: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

4

Fast or Slow Thinking? Thinking, Fast and Slow is a best-selling 2011 book by Daniel Kahneman. The book's central thesis is a contrast between two modes of thought: "System 1" and "System 2."

• System 1: Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, subconscious, bias

• System 2: Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious Kahneman covers a number of experiments that highlight the differences between these two thought systems and how they arrive at different results even with the same inputs. Terms and concepts include coherence, attention, laziness, association, jumping to conclusions, and how one forms judgments. The System 1 vs. System 2 debate dives into the reasoning or lack thereof for human decision making.

Exercise – Fast or Slow? Objective: Determine if fast decisions are better

than slow ones. Process: See the PowerPoint slide.

What’s the point? Our first “intuitive” answers are often wrong. We shouldn’t count on intuition when confronted with problems that need logic, thought, and reflection. Instead, critical thinking tools will help us to make better and less biased decisions.

Page 6: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

5

Fallacies A fallacy is an incorrect pattern of reasoning.

Finding a fallacy in your own or someone else’s reasoning does not mean that the conclusion is necessarily false. It only means that the conclusion has not been properly supported.

Fallacies can be committed through any of our communication methods. There are many such patterns of erroneous reasoning, and names have been applied. We will review the most common ones.

1. “Argumentum ad hominen”Attacking the person instead of attacking the argument. Example: John’sobjection to capital punishment carries no weight because he is a felon.

2. Appeal to AuthorityBased on the idea that something should be believed because of the source(e.g., celebrity sponsorships).

3. Appeal to EmotionBased on the idea people will act on emotions rather than logic. The issue isoversimplified.

4. Begging the QuestionThe conclusion might be implied, or already assumed in the premise.

5. Straw ManThis fallacy occurs when we misrepresent an opponent’s position to make iteasier to attack, by distorting his views to extremes.

6. Slippery Slope (if This, then This is sure to follow)This fallacy assumes that if you take the first step, you’re bound to followthrough.

7. Hasty GeneralizationsMaking a claim based on insufficient evidence (e.g., “Teenagers are poordrivers. Two of mine had accidents in the first month”).

8. Two Wrongs Make a RightUsing something else that’s wrong in order to justify your own wrong-doings.

Source: www.fallacyfiles.org

Page 7: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

6

The Main Communication Method of Critical Thinking: The Argument Evaluating arguments is a major element of critical thinking and argumentation is the main communication method. Keep in mind that “argument” does not refer to fighting. It is simply a series of statements used to persuade another of your claim and conclusion. Let’s take a closer look at arguments.

For an argument to even be considered, it must contain three basic elements: A disputable claim Logical reasons A necessary conclusion

Example of a claim? The 49ers is the NFL team in Santa Clara.

What about this next one? The 49ers is the best football team in the NFL.

When arguing, it’s important to remember the following guidelines: Be respectful

• Don’t raise your voice or attack the person verbally• Don’t use condescending facial expressions or tone

Stay away from certain words and phrases

Let’s consider the first tool that will help us analyze and evaluate arguments.

Page 8: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

7

Section 2: Thinking Map The first tool we will use in this course is referred to as a Thinking Map, which is a list of “key questions you should ask when weighing up an argument.” (Fisher, 56)

‘Thinking Map’

Alec Fisher, author of this Thinking Map, goes on to explain, “You will see that the questions are divided into two sets, the first called Analysis and the second called Evaluation. You cannot respond reasonably to an issue or statement unless you first understand it, so the ‘analysis’ questions guide you in understanding what is being said and argued. The ‘evaluation’ questions guide you in deciding whether you should be persuaded by the statement/position or not.” (Fisher, 56-57)

SKILLFUL ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF ARGUMENTS

(WHAT PEOPLE SAY OR WRITE) Analysis (Understanding) 1. What are the main positions, recommendations, or conclusions (may be

stated or unstated)? 2. What are the reasons (data, evidence)? 3. What is assumed? 4. What needs to be clarified (terms, claims or arguments)?

Evaluation (Deciding) 5. Are the reasons acceptable? 6. Does the reasoning support the conclusions? 7. What is your overall evaluation (in the light of steps 1 through 6)?

Thinking Map

Page 9: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

8

Analysis Step 1 – Conclusion: “What are the main positions, recommendations, or conclusions?” Although the process is presented sequentially, the order in which you proceed won’t matter with one exception: always start with step one. As Stephen Covey would say, “Begin with the end in mind.” It will help to organize your thinking about a piece of reasoning when you know where the author or speaker is going. Before we evaluate someone’s reasoning we must first find it. In general, those who create policy, give presentations, write articles or position statements are trying to change your perception or belief. For you to form a reasonable response to their persuasive effort, you must first identify the issue as well as the thesis or conclusion. There are several clues to help you identify the conclusion. (Browne and Keeley 19) Clue #1 – Look in likely locations Conclusions tend to hang out in certain places. If you don’t have a template, the first two places to look are at the beginning and at the end. This technique is especially helpful with longer documents or speeches. Clue #2 – Ask what the issue is Because a conclusion is usually a response to an issue, understanding the issue will help you find the conclusion or understand the essence of the document. To find the issue:

1. Look at the title. 2. Read the opening paragraph. 3. If the first two don’t reveal the issue, you may need to skim several

paragraphs early in the document. Clue #3 – Look for indicator words The conclusion will frequently be preceded by indicator words that announce a conclusion is coming. Here’s a sampling:

o consequently o suggests that o proves that o it follows that o o o o o o

Page 10: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

9

Exercise – Find the issue and the conclusion in the following paragraph by marking “I” and “C” respectively.

Should the public be shown actual courtroom trials on television? It seems as though the system can easily be corrupted by having cameras in the courtroom. Victims are hesitant enough when testifying in front of a small crowd, but their knowledge that every word is being sent to countless homes would increase the likelihood that they would simply refuse to testify. There is little or no assumed innocence for the accused when their trial is put on television. People do not watch court television because they are concerned about our country’s ability to effectively carry out the proceedings of the judicial system; instead they are looking for the drama in the witness testimony: entertainment. Thus, leave the cameras out of the courtrooms, and let the public view sitcom drama based off of the legal system.

Page 11: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

10

Analysis Step 2 – Reasons: “What are the reasons (data, evidence)?” When speakers or writers have conclusions they want you to accept, they must present reasons to persuade you that they are correct and to show you why. You cannot determine the worth of a conclusion until you identify the reasons. (Browne and Keeley, 26)

What is missing from the following claims? Twentieth century presidents were figureheads. Calvin and Hobbes deserved to be on Mt. Rushmore. Dark chocolate is good for you.

Clue #1 – Look for indicator words As was the case with conclusions, there are certain words that indicate that a reason will probably follow.

o first o becauseo o o o o o

Clue #2 – Ask why If clue #1 doesn’t work, ask “why” between sentences in a paragraph. This will help you see reasons hiding in the text.

Public schools should install metal detectors for safety. Teachers were surveyed for their opinions about metal detectors at every public school. Many indicated that they never know what to expect from their students and thought that metal detectors would be a safe solution to unexpected circumstances. Fifty-seven percent of teachers agreed that metal detectors would help the school become a safer environment.

Page 12: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

11

Longer and More Complicated Documents In especially complicated arguments, it is frequently difficult to keep the structure straight in your mind as you attempt to evaluate what you have read. To help, consider these tips.

Exercise – Note where the conclusion is located in the following document.

Should adults eat more chocolate? The following reasons should at least get us to consider the inviting prospect.

According to The Cochrane Library, real chocolate isn't junk food. There's chocolate and then there's chocolate. The former is a brown bar of sugary candy, the latter an antioxidant powerhouse. To ensure you're getting chocolate's healthy perks, look for dark chocolates with high cocoa content. The more cocoa, the better. While there's debate about what exactly constitutes "dark chocolate," try to find bars with at least 70% cocoa.

Shop carefully, though. it's easy to pick the wrong bar. A 2012 Australian review pointed out that flavanol content can vary depending on the manufacturing process, as well as the ripeness and variety of the parent cocoa beans. "A 70% cocoa containing chocolate bar from one company therefore might not contain the same amount of flavanols and flavanol composition as a 70% chocolate bar from another company," the authors said.

It’s no surprise, then, that chocolate is associated with lower blood pressure. Interest in the effect of cocoa on blood pressure began when it was discovered that the Kuna Indians, who live on a small island in Central America, seemed to maintain a low hypertension rate and low blood pressure, a 2012 review said. Their secret seemed to be the three to four cups of cocoa drinks they had every day. Many studies have since linked the consumption of flavanols to lower blood pressure. In a review of 20 such studies, nine established a link between lower

Also, count the number of major reasons you find (i.e., don’t count all the sub-points or supporting points) and be prepared to share your number.

Page 13: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

12

blood pressure and flavanol consumption. (Each of those studies lasted about two weeks; longer-duration studies did not show the same link for reasons that are still unclear.)

When all 20 trials were analyzed, the authors found that flavanol-rich chocolate was associated with a small but significant reduction of 2 mm to 3 mm Hg in blood pressure. "Even small reductions in blood pressure substantially reduce cardiovascular risk," the authors of the review said. Still, more studies are needed to investigate the long-term effects of flavanols on blood pressure.

The benefits don’t stop with lower blood pressure; consider the evidence that chocolate can help reduce iron deficiency. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, iron deficiency is the leading national nutritional deficiency. While we wouldn't recommend that you use any sugar-sweetened food as your primary source of nutrients, dark chocolate is a surprisingly rich source of iron. One hundred grams of cooked spinach has 3.5 mg of iron. One hundred grams of dark chocolate made of 70-85% cocoa solids has more than three times that amount.

It is still unclear whether we enjoy chocolate for its sweetness, its fattiness, its carbohydrates, its "optimal mouth feel," or its psychoactive ingredients, according to a review published in October 2013. Regardless, out of the eight studies included in the mood review, five showed that cocoa either eased bad moods or made good moods even better.

In a study released in May 2013, researchers gave 72 participants either a dark chocolate mix containing varying levels of polyphenols (antioxidants normally found in cocoa) or a placebo. They found that those taking a daily dose of the brew containing 500 mg of polyphenols (your average 40 g bar of dark chocolate has 400 mg to 800 mg of polyphenols, according to a Nestle study) showed improvements in self-reported calmness and contentedness after 30 days of drinking the brew.

Consequently, I’ll be eating more dark chocolate. The health benefits, both mental and physical, are compelling.

Page 14: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

13

Analysis Step 3 – Assumptions: “What is assumed?” When people make arguments orally or verbally, they leave much unsaid or implicitly assumed. For example:

Imagine a skater sitting at the edge of a frozen lake putting on her skates, when someone yells, “The ice is thawing and another skater had to be rescued when she fell through the ice, so it’s not a good idea to skate there right now.” (Fisher, 47)

People can solve their own unemployment problem by searching for a job or by willingness to work for less. Therefore, the unemployed could solve their problem. (Fisher, 49)

Exercise – Identify the assumptions in the following paragraph. Everyone should consider playing poker to win money. It has gained great popularity. You can see people play on television daily, and there are many opportunities to play against real people online. This trend is an exciting opportunity for people everywhere to try and win money. Poker is simple to learn after one understands the rules and concepts behind the game. It is a game that people of all ages and experience can play!

Some assumptions come from unconscious bias, which refers to a predisposition outside of our control. It is a bias that happens automatically and is triggered by making quick judgments and assessments of people and situations. It is influenced by our background, cultural environment, and personal experiences. There are scores of biases, far too many for our purpose here, but following are five common ones that affect objective critical thinking.

• The Status Quo Bias This is a belief or preference to keep things the way they are, even if a change would provide better options. It’s almost as if people convince

Page 15: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

14

themselves (in spite of all evidence to the contrary), that any issue or problem will simply work itself out. It can result in putting things off or failing to make a time sensitive decision, because it is simply easier to live with the status quo.

• Confirmation Bias

This bias leads people to gather only information that is “self-serving” or that supports firmly held beliefs. It can influence how we interpret the information we gather and even how we recall this evidence. It leads us to interpret situations in a biased manner and remember things in a way that distorts reality or reinforces those firmly held attitudes or beliefs.

• Narrow-framing Bias

A narrow-framing bias convinces the individual that a problem has only one solution. This limits the individuals search for more evidence or more pertinent information that could likely be used build alternative solutions.

• Short-term Emotional Bias

This bias gets in the way of a rational examination of the risks, the rewards, the costs, or a thorough examination of the long-term results of a decision. Our short-term emotion is interested in the here and now or what we strongly feel should happen.

• Overconfidence Bias

This is a well-known bias that results in overestimating our ability to do something, misjudging the odds that a solution will be effective, or miscalculating the reaction of others. The overconfidence bias often occurs after we make an initial decision. We tend to fall in love with our choices; the familiarity convinces us that we have probably made the right decision.

How can one overcome the power of these biases? You’ve taken one step already: recognizing that bias exists and increasing your understanding of it. Step two involves the use of critical thinking tools, which reduces bias through structured and systematic processes.

Page 16: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

15

Bias/Assumption Example

___ Status quo a. Ed believes so firmly that The Lost Ark is a myth that he only examines information supporting his belief. When Ed goes to the web to search for evidence about The Ark of Israel, his Google search terms are apt to be, “Why is the lost ark of Indiana Jones a myth?"

___ Confirmation b. This bias convinces us we have more accurate or more complete information than we actually do. This can be especially true for successful professionals. Their previous successes get in the way of actively and skeptically examining new evidence.

___ Narrow-framing c. Many times we react in the moment or without reflection, even to relatively important events or potential decisions. Strong emotions such as anger or fear of embarrassment outweigh rational reactions.

___ Short-term Emotional

d. A statement of resolve has no alternative. It is a statement such as, “I guess I have to drink tonight, since everyone else is”.

___ Overconfidence e. You are faced with a choice to invest in one of seven funds for an IRA (a tax-free retirement fund). You know this would benefit you at work and in your future. You know you could afford the modest monthly investment, but you put off the decision because you just can’t seem to find the time to make a choice among the funds or complete the paperwork.

Exercise – Individually, match the examples with the bias types. Then, as a team, compare answers and discuss how critical thinking tools reduce bias.

Page 17: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

16

Analysis Step 4 – Clarification: “What needs to be clarified (terms, claims or arguments)? In the process of critical thinking there is often a need for clarification. Terms may be used or claims may be made in which the meaning may not be clear. For example:

Imagine you are a juror in a criminal case and you are instructed to decide whether the case has been “proved beyond a shadow of a doubt.” Are you clear on what exactly this phrase means? If not, are you a juror who uses critical thinking?

Following are suggestions that will help avoid the pit of ambiguity: Review the document for abstract words or phrases.

• The more general a word or phrase, the more likely it will be ambiguous. • Examples: equality, responsibility, organic, natural resource, violent,

adverse conditions, extreme, valuable. Consider this advertisement:

“DeepDoze Sleep Aid: Works great in just 30 minutes”

Transition to Evaluation Looking at the Thinking Map, we see clear delineation between the last four steps (Analysis) and the next three (Evaluation). We have analyzed arguments in order to understand and make logical sense of them. Now, we turn our efforts toward evaluating arguments in order to decide whether we should be persuaded by them.

Page 18: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

17

Evaluation Step 5 – Acceptable: “Are the reasons acceptable (including explicit reasons, unstated assumptions, and credibility of a source)?” Once you are reasonably clear on what a speaker or writer is saying (i.e., what his/her reasons and conclusions are), then you are able to evaluate the reasoning. The first evaluation question enables you to judge whether reasons (explicit and implicit) are acceptable to you. Acceptability of reasons There are several questions you should ask that provide vital clues before accepting a reason. Think of two or three more besides the four below.

1. How certain is it claimed to be? 2. Is it widely known or believed? 3. Does it require expertise or research to decide? 4. Is it from a credible source? 5. 6. 7.

Exercise – Read the paragraph below and answer the question at the end.

You are considering buying a second-hand car, but since you know very little about cars, you have employed an expert mechanic (who has no other connection with the present owners) to check the vehicle over. He tells you that the car is in good condition and that it would be a good buy. Should you believe him; why or why not?

Page 19: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

18

Evaluation Step 6 – Support: “Does the reasoning support the conclusion(s)?” The focus here is on how we go about establishing whether the conclusions are good ones. There are several processes we could use, depending on the situation or context. In a courtroom, I would use “proved beyond a reasonable doubt.” In a laboratory or any other context in which I must be absolutely certain, I

would use “deductive validity.” In most work-related contexts, I would use “balance of probabilities.”

The following process (i.e., Balance of Probabilities) can be used in most work-related situations in which you need to establish whether the reasoning supports the conclusion.

1. Consider reasonable conclusions/alternatives 2. Find evidence for and against each alternative 3. Decide which alternative fits best with everything we know

These three steps can be done simply by completing the following template:

Alternate 1: Reasons for:

Reasons against:

Alternate 2: Reasons for:

Reasons against:

Page 20: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

19

Exercise – Write a Balance of Probabilities (step 6) for the following situation, using the template on the previous page.

Your department provides three levels of service to its internal customers, depending on the results of an annual online survey that employees are asked to complete. Typically, they are allowed a full 30 days to complete the survey in May. In 2019, circumstances required that you offer a shorter survey completion period of three weeks. The change was publicized widely by your department. The Monday following the deadline, the survey team received numerous calls from employees who had missed the deadline. The reasons varied in the level of seriousness, but they all requested an exception to the survey deadline. Employees claimed they have good reasons, including:

The system was busy Seriously ill Away on sabbatical Didn’t see publicized notice Death in the family Expired login Unclear survey questions Needed more time

Approaching the Director’s Office (DO) of your department for an exception is not a trivial matter. The DO allows the survey team, within reason, to accept changes the day after the survey deadline, but it is case by case. Exceptions cost your department time and money, and they increase the risk of favoritism charges against the survey team. A systems problem (error or busy) and death in the family are legitimate reasons for honoring an exception request and have been allowed in the past; they are the only reasons “outside of an employee’s control.” The other reasons are not allowed as exceptions.

Evaluation Step 7 – Evaluation: “What is your overall evaluation (in light of steps 1 through 6)?”

Page 21: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

20

Section 3: Grid Analysis Grid Analysis (GA) is a useful technique for making a decision, especially when you have a several alternatives and many factors to take into account. Any of the scenarios in the Appendix would work with a Grid Analysis because of the multiple options and factors for making a decision. How to use Grid Analysis

1. The first step is to list your options and then the factors that are important for making the decision. On the GA worksheet, enter the options as row labels, and factors as the column headings.

Factors: Price Station Access Emissions Distance Total

Weights:

E - Volt

H - Camry

2. Work out the relative importance of the factors in your decision on a scale

of 1 (little importance) to 5 (extremely important). Enter these as numbers in the “Weights” row. We will use these to weight your preferences by the importance of the factor.

Factors: Price Station Access Emissions Distance Total

Weights: 5 4 3 3

E - Volt

H - Camry

Page 22: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

21

3. Work your way across the table, scoring each option for each of theimportant factors in your decision. Score each option from 0 (poor) to 3(very good). Note that you do not have to have a different score for eachoption. If all of options are poor for a factor in your decision, then alloptions would score 0.

Factors: Price Station Access Emissions Distance Total

Weights: 5 4 3 3

E - Volt 1 1 3 2

H - Camry 2 3 1 3

4. Now multiply each of your scores by the values for your relativeimportance. This will give them the correct overall weight in your decision.

Factors: Price Station Access Emissions Distance Total

Weights: 5 4 3 3

E - Volt 1=5 1=4 3=9 2=6

H - Camry 2=10 3=12 1=3 3=9

5. Finally add up these weighted scores for your options. The option thatscores the highest is the option of choice.

Factors: Price Station Access Emissions Distance Total

Weights: 5 4 3 3

E - Volt 1=5 1=4 3=9 2=6 24

H - Camry 2=10 3=12 1=3 3=9 34

Page 23: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

22

Grid Analysis Exercise

1. You will be assigned to a Breakout Room. 2. Work together with your teammates to complete the grid below for a

decision that someone on your team needs to make. Perhaps someone is thinking of:

a. Where to vacation – consider at least four vacation spots and at least four factors.

b. Where to live – consider at least four locations in the Sacramento area and at least four factors.

c. Where to go to college – consider at least four colleges and at least four factors.

3. When finished with the grid, select a spokesperson to share the results with the class.

Factors �

Weights � Total

Page 24: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

23

Grid Analysis Scenario and Exercise

Recognizing employee contributions by showing appreciation is more important than ever before. How should our organization recognize employees and their work?

Annually, our organization has held a support staff recognition day to recognize all support/clerical staff. This day takes a lot of planning, costs a lot, and recognizes only one group of employees. Analysts and managers are not acknowledged. Does this need to be changed? Some other options to consider:

� Include other employees besides support/clerical staff in the annualrecognition day

� Stop the annual recognition day altogether

� Replace formal recognition programs with informal/spontaneous recognition inthe form of:

� Verbal praise (in private, in a team meeting, etc.)

� Say, "Thank you!" (verbally, cards, emails)

Exercise Instructions

1. You will be assigned to a Breakout Room.2. Work together with your teammates to complete the grid below for a

decision about the best way to recognize employees.3. When finished with the grid, be prepared to share the results with the class.

Factors � Morale Cost Time # of ppl Fair?

Weights � Total

Status

quo

Include others

Stop it

altogether

Replacew/ informal

Page 25: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

24

Section 4: Force Field Analysis Sometimes a change is planned without considering consequences. Use this tool to provide a framework for implementing change. By listing forces that can help and hinder the implementation of solutions or improvements, problems might be avoided, and success will be more likely.

1. Identify a topic, situation, or project. 2. State the goal of this topic, situation, or project. 3. Draw the following diagram on flipchart paper:

Goal Statement: Forces that help us

Forces that hinder us

4. After the flipchart is full of help and hinder items, prioritize the hinder items to determine which ones are priorities for immediately addressing the situation.

5. Address the priority barriers.

Page 26: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

25

Section 5: Root Cause Analysis To effectively solve a problem, you need to understand its cause or causes. Suppose your favorite plant is dying. You probably can’t make it green again until you understand what made it turn brown. Is it too dry? Could there be multiple causes? Seeking out potential causes of a problem will increase your chances of finding a permanent solution. The Five Whys This is another technique used to explore the cause-and-effect relationship underlying a problem. You can use the Five Whys in troubleshooting, quality improvement, and problem solving. It is best for simple or moderately difficult problems. For more complex or critical problems, use a method such as the Fishbone Diagram (previous page).

Problem: Your client is refusing to pay for the leaflets you printed for them. 1. Why? The delivery was late, so the leaflets couldn't be used. 2. Why? The job took longer than we anticipated. 3. Why? We ran out of printer ink. 4. Why? The ink was all used up on a big, last-minute order. 5. Why? We didn't have enough in stock, and we couldn't order it in quickly

enough. Countermeasure: We need to find a supplier who can deliver ink on very short notice.

Page 27: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

26

Fishbone Diagram Use this graphical tool to explore cause-and-effect relationships. It visually displays the causes of a condition or issue. Next steps toward a solution can be developed from the results.

1. Write the effect or outcome on the right side of the diagram. (See diagram below.)

2. Write the four major categories on the left side of the diagram. Categories can be equipment, policies/procedures, information, people, perceptions, environment, or any others that are appropriate for the topic.

3. Brainstorm a list of potential causes and write them on the lines of the diagram (e.g., Problems with computers).

4. Discuss which cause may be the most likely.

Page 28: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

27

Exercise: Digging Deep Complete a Fishbone Diagram to find the root cause of the following situation. • Problem: Our team has just received the lowest customer satisfaction rating in

five years (a 3 out of 5). Before we work on solutions, let’s find the most likely cause.

EFFECT CAUSE

______________

______________

_____________

______________

______________

______________

_________________

_________________

Page 29: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

28

Section 6: Lateral Thinking People tend to see only a limited view of a subject or a problem, which may lead to poor solutions or results. Edward De Bono has written several books around his concept of “lateral thinking,” which promotes a bigger and more unbiased view of different perspectives. One way to promote lateral thinking is by using MindTrap: a game in which everyone is required to think about a situation or issue and discuss it from several viewpoints. This method could help remedy the following situations: Ego-centric polar positions Nobody likes the two proposed options and are unwilling to make a

commitment to either Poor assumptions or unconscious bias, especially Narrow-framing Bias

Benefits of Lateral Thinking: Focus and improve the thinking process Encourage creative thinking Improve problem solving and speed up decision making Minimize confrontational debate Minimize or eliminate unconscious bias in decision making

The Process 1. During a meeting, when things get heated or the team is stuck, deal out the

deck of cards to anyone who doesn’t mind reading. 2. Take turns reading the cards and proposing answers/solutions to the

situations/riddles. Make sure everyone has an opportunity to speak/propose an answer.

3. Read the answer on the other side of the card, recognizing anyone who got the correct answer, and more importantly, the one who came up with the most creative answer.

4. Play for 10 minutes, and then revisit the issue or decision the team is trying to make. Usually the team has a breakthrough.

Page 30: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

29

MindTrap Activity

Activity Steps 1. Read the first slide, which is a situation with a question. 2. Take turns proposing answers/solutions to the situation. Make sure everyone has an opportunity to speak/propose an answer.

3. When everyone has spoken, advance the slide to read the answer. 4. Recognize anyone who got the correct answer, and more importantly, the one

who came up with the most creative answer. 5. Play for 10 minutes or until you run out of cards. 6. Discuss the scenario below and be prepared to share your two top ideas

beyond “serve beer and wine” and “do not serve beer and wine.” Choose a spokesperson to share your creative solutions.

Scenario The Internal Affairs Department is planning a fall barbecue at the park next to the County Library. The barbecue is for employees and their respective spouses, children, etc. This is the first time that Internal Affairs has included all its employees in a social event and their hope is that the event will become a fall tradition. The planning committee wants to serve beer and wine at the Saturday barbecue. The current organizational culture is one that discourages the service of alcohol at social events attended by underage employees in a continuing effort to discourage their alcohol use/abuse. It is anticipated that 75% of those in attendance will be over 21. Some planning committee members feel that serving alcohol will encourage people to relax; they want it to be a real social event. However, the six-member planning committee is divided evenly (three and three) and stuck on whether beer and wine should be served or not.

Page 31: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

30

Action Plan Describe at least two ways you will use the skills you gained in this course. Action

Date

References 1. Critical Thinking – An Introduction by Alec Fisher 2. Asking the Right Questions by Neil Browne and Stuart Keeley 3. Lateral Thinking by Edward de Bono 4. http://www.mindtools.com/pages/main/newMN_TED.htm 5. Critical Thinking Skills Success by Lauren Starkey

Page 32: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

31

Appendix

Organizations understand that good decision-making is vital to improving performance and achieving superior results. A recent Harvard Business Review (HBR) issue devoted most of an entire publication to problem-solving and how to create a culture that promotes making better decisions. A quote from HBR summed up their thoughts on the importance of decision-making, “Ultimately, an organization’s value is just the sum of the decisions it makes and executes." The State of California’s Human Resource division, CALHR, recently chose ten competencies or essential skills they felt every employee, at every level of California government service, should possess. One of these attributes was “an analysis or solution mindset”. This competency (as well as the other nine) came from a rigorous examination of workforce needs by The New World of Work’s 21st Century Skills Study. This paper outlines how to develop this vital competency (an analysis and solution mindset).

• Have you been recognized in the workplace for your ability to quickly size up a problem, gather useful information, and generate reliable decisions?

• Do you have a sense of what interferes with one’s ability to solve problems? • Is your ability to solve problems and make good decisions improving?

The know-how to be an effective decision maker is beyond no one’s reach. There is solid empirical evidence that these are the hurdles to making consistent and successful decisions. For anyone serious about improving their decision-making skills, they should focus on overcoming these three obstacles.

Page 33: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

32

The Three Hurdles

1) Unconscious bias (experts in the behavioral sciences says this is the biggest hurdle)

Unconscious bias, irrational thoughts, and false assumptions (all names for similar experiences) keep us from making good decisions. This has been scientifically proven and validated over the last 30 years and forms the basis of modern behavioral economics (the science of how people make decisions).

2) No structured approach to solving problems and making decisions

Most people lack a routine approach to solving complex problems or making critical decisions. This results in wasted time, false starts, delayed decision-making and often leads us to avoiding the issue altogether.

3) Insufficient tools to use in the problem-solving and decision-making process When you lack the tools to solve problems, it is like moving a large pile of earth without a wheel-barrow or shovel. You will probably figure out a way to move the dirt, but you will spend more time doing it and waste a lot of energy in the process. A lack of problem-solving tools is similar. This lack of tools results in failing to define problems, gathering the wrong information, poorly analyzing the information we do gather, and ultimately results in poor choices or decisions.

Clearing the Hurdles to Make Better Decisions The key to clearing the three hurdles and becoming a better problem solver and decision maker is recognizing the three hurdles and finding a consistent and proven means to overcome these obstacles. Hurdle #1 - Letting unconscious bias get in the way The Solution = Recognize Bias and Learn How to Overcome It Behavioral science offers concrete suggestions for recognizing the most important biases and how to overcome them. This paper introduces you to unconscious bias, shows how it interferes with decision-making, and illustrates how this knowledge (and solutions #2 and #3) can make you a better problem solver. Hurdle #2 - Lacking a structured approach to solving problems The Solution = Learn a Model and Use it Consistently Problem solvers need a model to follow. Organizations should teach and encourage a generally accepted model. If your organization doesn’t have an accepted problem-solving methodology, you will find one in this paper. This is a method similar to one used in thousands of modern organizations, and the first of two of the most effective ways to overcome unconscious bias. Hurdle #3 - Lacking the tools The Solution = Find some Tools, Learn to Use Them, and Practice Them Often There are scores of effective tools for overcoming bias and successfully performing every step of any problem-solving model. None of the tools are closely held secrets. The tools are widely available. You simply need to learn a few of the tools and then apply them at the proper time in the decision-making process.

Page 34: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

33

Unconscious Bias (Hidden Bias, Irrationality, or False Assumptions) Unconscious bias happens outside of our control. Bias is evident when we make quick judgments or assessments without the benefit of slow deliberation or rational critical thinking. It happens automatically; it is influenced by our background, cultural environment, and personal experiences. However, a quiet revolution has taken place over the last 30 years and resulted in the behavioral sciences recognizing that unconscious bias is the biggest obstacle in the path of those who want to make reasoned and appropriate decisions. This is real science, not a fad or a trend. Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for his contribution to founding the field of behavioral economics. Behavioral science explains the role of bias in our thinking and how it contributes to irrational decision-making. There are scores of biases, far too many for this short paper, but we will explore a few of the most important ones. In this section you will come to see the importance of bias and how it affects our decision-making. In the next two sections (models and tools) we will tackle the issue of overcoming bias. The status quo or “laziness or paralysis” bias A belief or preference to keep things the way they are, even if a change would provide better options. It is almost as if the individual convinces themselves (in spite of all evidence to the contrary), that any issue or problem will simply work itself out. It can result in putting things off or failing to make a time sensitive decision, because it is simply easier to live with the status quo. Example – You are faced with a choice to invest in one of seven funds for an IRA (a tax free retirement fund). You know this would benefit you at work and in your future. You know the money would not be taxed now or even until your retirement. You may even have the knowledge that your employer would match the funds, which would double your investment! You know you could afford the modest monthly investment, but you put off the decision because you just can’t seem to find the time to make a choice amongst the funds or complete the paperwork. You accept the status quo (doing nothing), in spite of the knowledge that a picking a fund is the rational choice. Confirmation bias This bias leads individuals to gather only information that is “self-serving” or that supports firmly held beliefs. It can influence how we interpret the information we gather and even how we recall this evidence. It leads us to interpret situations in a biased manner and remember things in a way that distorts reality or reinforces those firmly held attitudes or beliefs. Example – Ed believes so firmly that man-made climate change is a myth, that he only examines information supporting this belief. When Ed goes to the web to search for evidence about climate change, his Google search terms are apt to be, “Why is man-made climate change a myth?" When Ed is confronted with any conflicting evidence, he dismisses this information out of hand. Even his recall comes to support his beliefs; he can remember nothing that disproves his firmly held conviction that widely accepted climate science must be wrong.

Page 35: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

34

Narrow Framing Bias A narrow-framing bias convinces the individual that a problem has only one solution. This limits the individuals search for more evidence or more pertinent information that could likely be used build alternative solutions. Example - Baruch Fischhoff, a researcher from Carnegie Mellon University, has studied teenagers and decision-making. He found that 65% of all teenage decisions were either “statements of resolve” or a choice between only two alternatives. A statement of resolve has no alternative. It is a statement such as, “I guess I have to drink tonight, since everyone else is”. In the remainder of teenage decisions, their choice was yes or no or a similar binary choice. Their choice was often framed in the following way, “Do I dump my boyfriend or stay with him?”, or “Should I start vaping or not?” If this seems surprising, then compare it with a 1993 Ohio State study of 168 relatively high-level corporate decisions. The study found that only 29% of these decisions involved more than one alternative. These organizations were no better decision makers than teenagers! Short-Term Emotional Bias This bias gets in the way of a rational examination of the risks, the rewards, the costs, or a thorough examination of the long-term results of a decision. Our short-term emotion is interested in the here and now or what we strongly feel should happen. Example - Many times we react in the moment or without reflection, even to relatively important events or potential decisions. Strong emotions such as anger or fear of embarrassment outweigh what should be deliberate or rational reactions, and result in an outburst that we realize is inappropriate and often immediately regret. Our short-term emotions are counterproductive to deliberate and sound decision-making in the workplace. Overconfidence Bias This is a well-known bias that results in overestimating our ability to do something, misjudging the odds that a solution will be effective, or miscalculating the reaction of others. The overconfidence bias often occurs after we make an initial decision. We tend to fall in love with our choices; the familiarity convinces us that we have probably made the right decision. Example - As we engage in problem-solving and decision-making, we gather more and more information. Some of this information will be helpful, but other information will prove to be useless or lead us in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, the overconfidence bias convinces us we have more accurate or more complete information that we actually do. This can be especially true for successful professionals. Their previous successes get in the way of actively and skeptically examining new evidence. They rely too much on the overblown estimates of their perceptions (based on past experience) and not enough on digging for the actual facts of a situation. The biases above are just a few of the several dozen recognized unconscious biases that interfere with good decision-making. Though many biases have been identified, you will boost your problem-solving skills if you appreciate the negative power of even a few of the most common biases. By recognizing these biases and building a system to overcome them (the problem-solving model and critical thinking tools that follow) you will have taken the first step to becoming a superior decision-maker. How can one overcome the power of these biases? You’ve taken one step already, by recognizing that bias exists and increasing your understanding of it. The next two steps complete the process. Step two in the path to better decision-making is learning a problem-solving model and using it consistently.

Page 36: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

35

A Five-Step Problem Solving Model for Overcoming Unconscious Bias There are many problem-solving and decision-making models. Some are very simple. They run the gamut from trial and error and asking an expert, to the less-than-dependable flip of a coin. More reliable processes are logical, multi-step methods that have evolved over time to gain widespread workplace acceptance. The following model is a standard five-step approach that is used by thousands of businesses and governmental organizations around the world. It differs very little from the seven-step method preferred by California State Government, the Completed Staff Work Process. We are using this simpler five-step method in order to clearly and more easily show the interaction of bias, a problem-solving model, and the associated critical thinking tools.

The Five Steps

1) Define the problem or get to the root cause of an issue You define the problem:

a) To gain clarity about the problem, the issue, or the cause and b) So you solve the right problem

This is one of the most important steps in the process. Not only does it provide a start, a first step toward resolution, but it forces you to stop and focus on the real issue (the root cause of the problem). 2) Gather information relevant to the problem or issue Gathering information is vital. Full information adds the context or insight to the problem, such as who are the stakeholders, what is the history, who is involved, and more.

3) Generate alternative solutions to the identified problem Just as there is no one perfect food, there is never a single solution to any problem. There may be a superior solution, but you will have a greater chance of identifying that solution after you have seen or generated many solutions from the information you gathered.

4) Decide on the best alternative or solution to the problem With multiple solutions and information in front of us, it is now time to critically examine the evidence and alternative solutions and choose the most viable answer (the superior solution).

5) Implement the solution, evaluate the results, and determine your next steps Finally, it is time to implement our solution and seriously evaluate whether the solution yielded the results you sought, if the costs of the solution were justified, and if should your continue on this course or reexamine the problem and move in another direction. At any of the steps in the process, or more likely every step, unconscious bias can get in the way of good problem-solving. This finding is the essence of years of scientific findings from the behavioral sciences. These findings show that we are not entirely rational as we examine an issue, gather information, or make decisions. This is the reason we need to consider our unconscious bias(es) at every step in the problem-solving process. The table on the next page illustrates which biases interfere with our decision-making. The table shows what happens at each of the five steps in the problem-solving process. It illustrates (at each of the steps 1-5) how using a model is a way to overcome bias. As you read through the table on the next page, consider what would happen if we didn’t use a model. We would be a victim of our random biases. We might never even start the process, because the status quo or laziness bias is always on hand to delay us or even convince up not to begin the procedure at all.

Page 37: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

36

How Using a Model Serves to Overcome Unconscious Bias

Step 1 ) Define the problem (root cause) of an issue Allows us to overcome the status quo bias. How? See the explanation to the right.

Status quo or “laziness” bias The status quo bias keeps us from doing anything. This bias can paralyze us. If we don’t know how to start, it is often easiest to do nothing. Simply identifying and taking this first step (defining the problem) gives us a starting point. It shows us there is a right way to start a problem-solving process. It clearly says how not to start the process. i.e. Never start by generating solutions before defining the problem.

Step 2 ) Gather relevant information Allows us to overcome the confirmation bias. How? See the explanation to the right.

Confirmation bias The confirmation bias can lead to gathering only information that is “self-serving” or information that reinforces our previously held beliefs. Now that we know this is an issue, we can force ourselves to gather more than our “gut” or intuition tells us is necessary. Is that all? No. Taking this step will help, but on the next page we will see a tool that will offer even more aid.

Step 3) Generate multiple alternative solutions This step allows us to overcome the narrow-framing bias See the explanation to the right.

The narrow-framing bias This bias tells us that we only need to examine a maximum of two alternatives. It keeps us from seeking other potentially superior solutions. Even if we are convinced that we have the only options, this step tells us to keep going or generate more possible solutions. It forces us to keep looking, dig deeper, or overcome our natural bias or inclination to narrow-frame.

Step 4) Examine the alternative solutions and choose the superior one This is the step says step back, ignore first impulses, and rationally examine the alternatives. See the explanation to the right.

Short-term Emotion This bias gets in the way of a rational examination of the risks, rewards, costs, or a thorough examination of the long-term results of a decision. Our short-term emotion is interested in the here and now. Short-term emotions like anger, annoyance, fear, guilt, or shame tell us the choice is obvious. It tells us to “pull the trigger” on the option that feels the best now. If we recognize the influence of short-term emotion, we can slow our reaction and create the space to make a better decision.

Step 5) Implement the solution, evaluate the results, and determine your next steps See the explanation to the right.

Overconfidence bias The overconfidence bias often occurs after we make a decision. We tend to fall in love with our choice. Our familiarity convinces us that we probably made the correct judgement. When we recognize this bias, we place more emphasis on statistics and real evidence, and not on our first impression that our decision is correct, simply due to our over-abundance of confidence.

Now we add the last step in the process, how to use the critical thinking tools, and tie it all together.

• On page six you will see a chart that adds tools to the mix (the right hand column of the table). • On page seven you will find an all-in-one summary document. This chart collates all the information

from the previous six pages together in a one-page review document (and all-in-one summary diagram) that we’ve included for you to print and use as a reference tool.

Page 38: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

37

Critical Thinking Tools The Issue The Critical Thinking Tools

Step 1 Define the problem

then find a specific tool

to overcome

Status Quo Bias

Getting started is important, but getting started by doing the right thing is even more critical. If we expose the root cause, all our subsequent work will be focused where it has the most effect. That is where the five whys tool is so effective. The five whys – The five whys is a tool that directs you to ask the why question five times (less or more as needed) in order to get to the root cause of the issue. Example – We think Purchase Orders (POs) take too long to process. 1) Why does it take 18 days to process a P.O.? Answer – It goes to 6 people. 2) Why does it go to 6 people? Answer – They all have to sign off on the order? 3) Why do they all have to sign off? Answer – That’s how we’ve always done it? 4) Why is that? Answer – There was some dishonest PO behavior in the past. And now we have the root cause. This is about preventing theft. If we can find a way to keep the system honest with fewer signatures, then we have a solution.

Step 2 Gather relevant

information

then find a tool to to overcome

Confirmation Bias

Ask probing and disconfirming questions Questions are a powerful tool for the problem solver. Questions such as:

• Who is involved? Are you sure there are no other stakeholders? • What is the history? Could this issue be associated with other processes? • Are there best practices we should look at? • Has anyone else faced this problem at our organization? • Are you sure there is nothing else related to the issue? And so on.

Step 3 Generate multiple alternate solutions

then find a tool to

overcome

Narrow-Framing Bias

Move from this OR that, to this AND that This is a simple technique but don’t dismiss it because it seems unsophisticated. The narrow-framing bias is a powerful one. When you find yourself asking, “Should I do this OR that?” stop yourself. Make the mental switch to this AND that. Never stop at a single option, but generate as many as you can that seem even remotely feasible. You can always delete an option, but the exercise of generating many options may open new and useful avenues of thought to follow.

Step 4 - Examine the alternative solutions

and choose the superior one

then find a tool to

overcome

Short-Term Emotion

Consider – is this loss aversion? Fear of loss is one of our stronger emotions and is considered a powerful bias as well. The behavioral science literature says that the power of a loss is felt four times as much as that of a similar gain. So how can we use this to our benefit? Examine all the alternatives, not only in terms of what can be gained, but also considering what could be lost. (Note: This is often called “opportunity cost”) Is the potential loss that may be incurred by a solution keeping you from choosing it? Have you considered the potential loss of every alternative with the same rigor as you examined their potential gains?

Step 5 - Implement, evaluate, and

implement next steps

then find a tool to overcome

Overconfidence Bias

Examine the evidence. Look at the proof or the results. In other words, don’t fall in love with your solution simply because you created it. This is the time to consider the facts in a completely dispassionate manner. If you didn’t achieve the results you wanted, perhaps it is time to reconsider an alternate solution. This last step in the process should be an experiment. If the results are positive, you repeat or scale up the solution. If the results are negative, you pivot, change directions, or try an alternative solution.

Page 39: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools

38

All-in-One Summary Diagram (bias, a model, and tools)

Steps 1-5 Unconscious Biases Critical Thinking Tools Step 1 Define the problem

Status Quo Bias This bias keeps us from doing anything. It can paralyze us or make us seem lazy, when we can’t decide what to do.

The Five Whys – Ask why five times to get to the root cause of the problem. Other tools include: The fishbone diagram, the drill-down technique, and many others*

Step 2 Gather relevant information

Confirmation Bias The confirmation bias can lead to our gathering only information that is “self-serving” or information that reinforces our previously held beliefs.

Ask probing and disconfirming questions Questions are a powerful tool for the problem solver. Other tools include: Observation, interviews, surveys, focus groups, web searches, and many others*

Step 3 Generate multiple alternate solutions

Narrow-framing Bias This bias tells us we only need to examine a maximum of two alternatives. It keeps us from seeking potentially superior solutions.

Move from this OR that, to this AND that When you find yourself asking, “Should I do this OR that,” stop yourself. Make the mental switch to this AND that. Never stop at a single option, but generate as many as you can that seem even remotely feasible. Other tools include: Brainstorming, Mind-mapping and many others*

Step 4 Examine the alternative solutions and choose the superior one

Short-term Emotion Bias This bias gets in the way of a rational examination of the risks or costs of the long-term results of a decision. Our short-term emotion is interested in the here and now.

Consider – is this loss aversion? Fear of loss is one of our stronger emotions and is considered a powerful bias as well. Examine all the alternatives, not only in terms of what can be gained, but also considering what could be lost. Other tools include: The ABC method of self-management, getting an observer’s perspective, and many others*

Step 5 Implement the solution, evaluate results, determine next steps

Overconfidence Bias The overconfidence bias often occurs after we make a decision. We tend to fall in love with our choice.

Examine the evidence. Look at the proof or the results. In other words, don’t fall in love with your solution simply because you created it. This is the time to consider all the facts. Other tools include: Conduct a pre-mortem, Set a tripwire (from “Decisive”, Chip and Dan Heath), and many others*

* Information about these other tools can be found in some of the excellent courses and books cited on the resources and references page (page 8). See also bottom of page 8 (More Information about Critical Thinking Tools)

Page 40: Critical Thinking Tools...Critical Thinking Tools 2 Section 1: Overview . Outcome. Participants will increase their ability to think critically in problematic situations and make better

Critical Thinking Tools