Critical Assessment of available Radar Precipitation Estimation techniques and Development of...
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Critical Assessment of available Radar Precipitation Estimation techniques and Development of Innovative approaches for Environmental Management
Starting Point
PADRE
DARTH
May 1998 - Meeting at Teolo
June 1999 - RANSHA
Feb 2000 - RAINFLOOD
Feb 2001 - CARPE DIEM
Jan 1st 2002
Once upon a time …..Once upon a time …..
What is CARPE DIEM ?
It is a shared-cost project co-founded by the Research DG of the European
Commission within the RTD activities of a generic nature of the Environment and Sustainable Development sub-program
(5th Framework Programme)
Duration: 36 months Status: started Period : 01/2002 - 12/2004
General OverviewGeneral Overview
7 European Countries (I,D,UK,FIN,S,IRL,ES) 9 Partners
• 2 National Weather Services (SMHI, FMI)• 1 Regional Weather Service (ARPA-SMR)• 3 Universities (U.Essex, U.Barcelona, NUID)• 2 Research Institutes (DLR, ISAO-CNR)• 1 Research private company (PROGEA)
• One sub-contractor (SMC)
Total Budget 2,501,444 € EU-Founded 1,659,747 € Total work-load 476 man-months ( 395 + 81)
General OverviewGeneral Overview
The ConsortiumThe ConsortiumGeneral OverviewGeneral Overview
Problem to be solvedProblem to be solved
Flooding is a major world-wide problem which seems to have increased in severity within the last decade.
The crucial role-played by rainfall accumulation, that is the main forcing variable of surface hydrological processes, need to be better examined to understand the flood forecasting uncertainty linked with the present state of the art rainfall estimation and forecasting techniques.
The accuracy of extreme precipitation forecasts and consequent floods forecasts is of extreme importance in preventing loss of life, health and psychological damage and infrastructure and property loss or damage.
Extreme rainfall events are also important in the generation of landslides and benefits in terms of risk assessment will follow from the increased understanding of the generating mechanisms and spatial distribution of heavy rainfalls.
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
CARPE DIEM aims to improve the quality of flood forecasting for small and medium size catchments developing an innovative methodology to exploit radar data (Doppler moment, reflectivity and polarisation information) in order to enhance rainfall estimation and prediction.
SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVESSCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES
The processing of the retrieved atmospheric parameters so that they can be ported into NWP algorithms. The information injected into the NWP will be processed be to be compatible with the atmospheric state.Improve the techniques for assimilation of radar data in NWP models, with emphasis on the forecasting of flooding events and on nowcasting.Improve the quality of radar products using NWP results.Improve the quality of radar rain retrieving techniques.Establish quality control procedure for filtering raw data.Improve the quality of the rainfall field inputs to hydrological models.Assess the sensitivity of hydrological models to input data.Improve the useful lead-time and reliability of forecasted floods.
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
GENERAL POSITIVE FALLOUTGENERAL POSITIVE FALLOUT
Generate synergy between radar-meteorologists, numerical modelling groups and hydrologists, as well as river basin managers and flood control/disaster relief personnel.
Improve the transnational collaboration and the complementary skills of the participants.
Involve a panel of pan-European End-Users in the definition of project outcomes.
Involve a panel of pan-European End-Users in the validation of project outcomes.
The essential contribution coming from the End-Users panel ensure that the CARPE DIEM results will be directly put into action with immediate benefits at local/national and European scale. Direct advantages are foreseen in flood management.
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
ARPA SMR Italy
Servizio ProtezioneCivile
Regione Emilia-Romagna
PC-RERFlood
Management
SMHI SwedenÅngermanälvens
Vattenregleringsföretag
EnergyHydropower
industry
FMI Finland Kemijoki Oy KEJOHydropower
Industry
FMI FinlandFinnish National Road
AdministrationNRA Transport
Univ.Barcelona
SpainServei de Meteorologia
de CatalunyaSMC Weather Forecast
Univ.Barcelona
SpainClavegueram deBarcelona, S.A.
CLABSASewage
management
NUID IrelandEnvironmental
Protection AgencyEPA River Management
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
Expected impacts: CARPE DIEM’s main goal is to improve the overall quality of flood and flash-flood forecasting. The improvements in severe storm precipitation deposit both estimated and forecasted, are of primary importance, also, for users community beyond that the “flood users”. Ancillary advantages are also expected in other fields.
A better identification of the rain phase, as well as a better snow forecast, is important in all Northern European countries for snow clearance procedure.Better precipitation phase identification is also crucial for forecasting winter floods, which have been severe in Central Europe during the 90s. In heavy winter precipitation the areal distribution of phase determines whether preventive actions should be started against accumulated snow.An improved estimation of rain deposit in urban catchment has a direct feedback into the sewage management.A better understanding of how the Doppler radar data could be used in operational suite of NWP models. In this context weather radar can be used in a secondary role to fill gaps in a network of wind profilers and autosondes. The software tools developed to identify ANAPROP could be easily adapted and adopted for exploitation by a wide range of end users, particularly weather bureaux employing radar to quality-control radar dataThe involvement of members of CARPE DIEM in the HIRLAM team and the COSMO consortium ensures that the assimilation systems developed to ingest radar data are, in future, used in the operational suite of these advanced models.
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
RELATED PROJECTS
COST-717 – Use of radar observation in hydrological and NWP models.
International HIRLAM-5
COSMO – Consortium for Small scale Modelling.
The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX)
Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP)
A RE A 1S cien tif ic R apporteu rD ata A ss im ilation &N W P im provem en ts
A RE A 2S cien tif ic R apporteu r
Im proving radar derived param eter
A RE A 3S cien tif ic R apporteu r
F lood forecasting
W P 11E nd-U sers 's level of service requ irem en ts
W P 12P roject resu lts dissem ination
W P 1C oordinator
P roject M anagem en t
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
TSC End-UserPanel
W P 2Extraction of in form ationfrom Dop p ler w in d s
W P 3Data Assim ilation
W P 4Assessm en t of NW P m od el u n certain ityin clu d in g m od els errors
W P 5Assessm et ofim p rovem en ts in NW P
AREA 1Scien tific Rap p orteu rData Assim ilation &NW P im p rovem en ts
W P 6An om alou s p rop ag ation
W P 7Ad van ced su rface rad ar-b asedrain fall estim ate ap p lyin g NW P m od el d ata
W P 8Use of p olarim etric rad ar d atafor im p rove th e rad ar rain estim ate
AREA 2Scien tific Rap p orteu r
Im p rovin g rad ar d erived p aram eter
W P 9Assessm en t of th e b ias in th e d ifferen t sou rcesof areal p recip itation estim ates
W P 10In corp oratin g g au g es an d rad ar rain fallin NW P for im p rovin g flood forecastin gin u rb an an d ru ral catch m en ts
AREA 3Scien tific Rap p orteu r
F lood forecastin g
W P 11En d -Users's level of service req u irem en ts
W P 12Project resu lts d issem in ation
W P 1Coord in ator
P roject Man ag em en t
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
Technical Steering Committee
Dr. Pier Paolo Alberoni Project Co-ordinatior
Dr. Nils Gustafsson Scientific rapporteurs of Area 1 “Data assimilation and NWPimprovements”
Dr. Madhu Chandra Scientific rapporteurs of Area 2 “Use of NWP results toimprove radar products”
Prof. Ezio Todini Scientific rapporteurs of Area 3 “Flood forecasting”
Dr. Andrea Rossa External Member. MeteoSwiss. Chairman of COST 717
Prof. Paolo Burlando External Member. Professor of Hydrology and Waterresources Management at the Swiss Federal Institute ofTechnology (ETH)
Prof. Dusan Zrnic External Member. NSSL-NOAA
Technical Steering CommitteTechnical Steering Committe
Provide advice, criticism and guidance to the Co-ordinator and project participants in order to ensure a more efficient execution of the proposed tasks and WP.
Provide requirements and feedbacks for the correct development of products following specific users’ needs.
Evaluate contributions from all partners and decide on their quality.
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
WORK PACKAGE COORDINATINGPARTNER
COORDINATINGSCIENTIST
1 Project management ARPA SMR Dr Pier Paolo Alberoni
2 Extraction of information fromDoppler winds
UESSEX Prof. Anthony Holt
3 Data assimilation SMHI Dr. Nils Gustaffson
4 Assessment of NWP modeluncertainty including modes errors
PROGEA Prof. Ezio Todini
5 Assessment of improvements inNWP
ARPA SMR Dr. Pier Paolo Alberoni
6 Anomalous propagation UESSEX Dr. David Bebbington
7 Advanced surface radard-basedrainfall estimate
FMI Dr. Jarmo Koistinen
8 Use of polarimetric radar data forimprove the radar bias estimate
DLR Dr. Madhu Chandra
9 Assessment of the bias in thedifferent sources of arealprecipitation
SMHI Dr. Barbro Johansson
10 Incorporating gauges and radarrainfall estimates in NWP forimproving flood forecasts in urbanand rural catchments
CWRR Dr. Michael Bruen
11 End-users level of servicerequirements
CWRR Dr. Michael B ruen
12 Project results dissemination UBARCELONA Dr. Bernat Codina
WP 1
WP 2
WP 3
WP 4
WP 5
Data Assimilation
WP 6
WP 7
WP 8
Improving radar derivedparameter
WP 9
WP 10
Flood Forecasting
Research Area
Co-ordination Area
Dissemination Area
WP 11 WP 12 Req
uir
emen
ts
Fee
db
ack Results
End- users Area
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
Months
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
WP
#WP 1
WP 2
WP 3WP 4
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6Milestones M0
WP 5
WP 6WP 7
WP 8
WP 9WP 10
WP 11WP 12
ReportsMeetings
Workshops
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
We are here
WORK to do
MILESTONECode Time Name Features
M0 0 Start of the project Start of activities 1st TSC meeting
M1 +6 Set-up of basic communicationfacility
Basic end-Users requirements Web site established Critical review of polarisation
techniques
M2 +12 Set-up of assimilation schemes Assessment of radar uncertainty Pre-processing of radar data Definition of multiple Doppler
analysis Definition of hydrometeor phases
based on NWP
M3 +18 Mid-term Implementation of the observationoperator for 4DVAR.
Assessment of errors in the input ofhydrological models
1st workshop, End-Users panelmeeting
2nd TSC meeting End-users Assessment document
M4 +24 Assessment of interaction of NWPand radar data
First results of assimilation Overhanging precipitation
correction First results on flood forecasting
improvements
M5 +30 Assessment of improvement inflood forecasting
Sensitivity studies Impact of Doppler wind on the
4DVAR Test of VSRF system
M6 +36 End of the project Validation of improvements in floodforecasting
Vertical reflectivity profile correction Test of “real-time” model for
ANAPROP modelling 2nd workshop, End-Users panel
meeting End-users Assessment document 3rd TSC meeting
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
project project deliverablesdeliverables
Great total : 41
First Year: 6+5W.P. Deliverable Deliverable title Deliverydate
Nature Disseminationlevel
1 1.1 Set-up of Technical Steering Committee 2 RE PU
1 1.2 Report of the kick-off Meeting 2 RE PU
1 1.3 1st TSC report 2 RE PU
8 8.1 Critical review of present state of the art multi-polarisation rainfall estimation techniques
4 RE PU
11 11.1 Basic End-Users requirements 6 RE PU
12 12.1 web site 6 O PU
2 2.1 Super-observation dataset 12 DA PU
2 2.2 Maps of the partner 1 region detailing those areasaccessible to dual-Doppler analyses, and any
accessible to three Doppler radars.
12 SI PU
5 5.1 Analysis of severe weather situations 12,24 DA PU
5 5.2 Set-up of VSRF procedure 12 O RE
8 8.2 Climatology of variations in Z-R at different spatialand temporal scales of model input obtained by DP
method
12 RE PU
Structure & workplanStructure & workplan
MUSICMUSICEURAINSAT
Dissemination plan
• End-UsersEnd-Users
• Web siteWeb site
• Conferences Conferences
• Mid-term Workshop (SMHI)Mid-term Workshop (SMHI)
• Final Workshop (ARPA)Final Workshop (ARPA)
• Scientific PapersScientific Papers