Pakistan is attracting a great deal of academic and analytical interest. That is not surprising. Some have called it the most dangerous place on earth. The titles of a number of recent books on Pakistan throw light on the various aspects of a state and society in deep trouble. Anatole Lieven, in Pakistan: a hard country (2011), looks at the social and political structures of a country that, even six-and-a-half decades after achieving independence, is still engaged in the process of creating one nation out of many different people. The ‘hard’ in the book’s title has several meanings. To begin with, the country is not easy to understand. It is full of contradictions: modernisation versus extreme conservatism; asceticism versus love for the good things of life; a tradition of philanthropy versus little regard for the sufferings of the less advantaged; isolationism versus a deep desire to work with the world, in particular the West.

The ‘hard’ also refers to the fact that though torn by numerous conflicts that divide its people, the country keeps muddling through. It is a hard country to put down. What gives it resilience is the set of local loyalties that bind the citizens to the members of the political establishment that, in turn, meet the people’s basic needs and aspirations.

Maleeha Lodhi’s Pakistan beyond the crisis state (2011) is a rare book in the sense that its contributing authors are positive about the country’s future. They believe that the contemporary security challenges and long-term demographic pressures and energy shortages can be overcome if the country’s political establishment can muster the political will to undergo wide-ranging institutional and structural economic reforms. The authors look at what might emerge in the country once the difficulties it faces are overcome. At the end of a long tunnel through which the country is now passing, they see it emerging not very different from a number of other Asian states that have already produced high rates of sustainable GDP growth. They argue that Pakistan is capable of transitioning itself into a stable modern Islamic state, though bold reforms are necessary. The country can be reeled back from the brink of crisis.According to Ahmed Rashid, the country is already on the brink. His latest book, Pakistan on the brink: the future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West (2012), adopts a tone even more somber than his earlier ones. His reading of the Pakistani situation is different from that of Lieven and those of the contributors to Lodhi’s volume. The former sees some resilience in the structure of the Pakistani society, while the latter believe that actions by the ruling establishment can not only save the situation from further deterioration, they can also move the country toward a better future. Rashid, however, is considerably less optimistic. He lays the blame equally on those who have ruled in the past and those who are ruling right now. “They take no responsibility for providing services to the public, while indulging in large-scale corruption. They allow an unprecedented economic meltdown to become worse by declining to carry out reforms or listening to international advice.”Some of the analytical interest in Pakistan looks at the impact it is likely to have on the world if the crises it faces are not managed. According to Zahid Hussain’s The scorpion’s tail: the relentless rise of Islamic militancy and how it threatens America (2010), Pakistan carries a lot of poison stored in its body.

Provoked, it will sting. Having delivered the poison it carries it may die, as scorpions are said to do once they have attacked, but its sting could prove to be fatal for its victim. Stephen Cohen’s The Future of Pakistan (2011), (which he has edited) does not believe, at least according to the volume’s editor, that the country has much of a future. But, in line with Zahid Hussain, the editor of this rather depressing volume suggests that this highly troubled South Asian nation will go a long way toward determining what the world looks ten years from now.  They advise the world to watch Pakistan closely and prepare for the worst.To this list of recently publishedbooks we should add the World Bank’s World Development Report, 2010 which comes with the subtitle, Conflict, Security and Development . While not entirely focused on the situation in Pakistan, It sees the country belonging to the category of what it calls “fragile states”. The Bank’s report has one powerful message: that there is enough evidence from around the globe to suggest that the fragility of the states it examines need not result in their failure. They can recover but will need to be kept on life support for years to come.

There is one thing common to all these analyses. They focus on many crises Pakistan currently faces. It is a perfect storm through which the country will have to navigate. Whether it can go through without capsizing will depend on how the Pakistani establishment is able to steer the state towards the safety of a shore. What will help those in command is to develop a better appreciation of the nature of the many crises they must deal with. They should also have some idea about the way the country dealt with crises in the past.

Ever since the energy crisis hit the country, the whole nation is looking for an answer to one question – will it ever end? This is just one simple question which many governments have failed to address. The former Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government gave false hopes to the people and as evident, even after the end of their five-year tenure, there is no improvement in the energy sector and the people are left suffering from 10 to 14 hours of load shedding. 

Since the formation of PML-N government with their aggressive energy policy cum metro bus approach, the question arises again whether their energy policies will help curtail the energy crisis till 2017 or at least reduce the number of load shedding hours.

Here is an analysis of the energy policy of Pakistan the government has released in October 2013. As per section 7 (1) of the National Power Policy which defines the supply strategy, the government has planned a number of power projects which are expected to be completed during their five-year term. The following projects have being initiated by government expected to be completed by 2017-18:

This means that if everything goes as planned, the government will increase the generation capacity by 5094 megawatt (MW) till the end of their five-year term. At present, we have an installed capacity of 22,797 MW and the average demand is around 17,000 MW while the short fall fluctuates between 4000 to 5000 MW.

The point of contention is whether the predicted figure of 5094 MW will be enough for curtailing the energy crisis in the country. A load forecast report published by National Transmission Dispatch Authority (NTDA) every year states that by 2017-18 the electricity demand in the country will go up to 35,000 MW.

Now, for instance, if we add 5094 MW into the national grid till 2017 and considering that the government brings installed capacity (22,797 MW) online by retiring the circular debt and reducing the line losses by 9%, which means adding 27,891 MW under ‘ideal circumstances’ by end of 2017 even then if the demand side is considered, we will still be facing a short fall of 7,109 MW (35,000 – 27,891) by the end of 2017.

The National Energy Policy of 2013 reflects on the government’s attitude in resolving the energy crisis of the country. The government needs to seriously revise their energy policy keeping in view load forecast, otherwise the conditions will be worse than ever; the nation will probably experience load shedding of 15 to 20 hours a day and many remote areas will be left in darkness.

Almost 65% of Pakistan’s electricity production is based on thermal fuel sources such as Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) and High Speed Diesel (HSD) which are highly expensive and non-renewable sources of generation. Dependence on such fuels increases the cost of generation. On the contrary, it has a negative

impact on the environment due to excessive carbon oxide emissions which result in climatic changes. Beside this, we are facing an acute shortage of gas as well. If the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline had worked out, it would have been contributing substantially to resolving the energy crisis. But unfortunately, due to foreign pressure, the project eventually ended up in the loss of billions of rupees.

At present, to overcome the energy crisis and to meet future energy challenges, Pakistan needs to build micro-hydro projects. They are cheaper and one of the most reliable forms of renewable energy source.. We need to put our focus on energy conservation by minimising energy usage through developing effective energy management plans and ensuring its implementation in corporate, industrial and housing sectors. The government should set energy conservation standards for large, medium and small scale industries and encourage the industrial sector to reduce their energy consumption by benchmarking their energy usage and energy saving drives.

Moreover, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) should be provided subsidy and tax rebates so that they can enter into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with industrial owners and sell electricity on cheaper rates to industries which will eventually help catering the demand of industrial consumers and decrease their reliability on the national grid.

Since solar technologies are becoming prominent all over the world due to massive decrease in cost per watt from $7 per watt to $1 per watt, the concept of Net Metering should be introduced to encourage domestic and commercial consumers to setup their own small scale grid connected Photovoltaic (PV) solar plants. This step will not only help boosting the PV solar market in Pakistan but will also result in adding surplus units to the national grid, favouring both the user and utility service providers.

Pakistan has abundant resources of shale oil and gas which needs to be explored and can be used effectively as alternative fuel for electricity generation. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US agency working on energy statistics and analysis has estimated recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) and more than nine billion oil barrels within Pakistan. Thus overcoming the energy crisis in the five-year term for any government will not be a problem if the existing resources are utilised effectively.

If we really want to resolve the energy crisis in our country, our policy should focus on demand based energy conservation and load forecasting of the upcoming years, and an effective implementation plan. Otherwise, we will end up building more circular debt, hence leading to prolonged periods of dark ages.