Crisis Management Crisis Management and Preventionand Prevention

(Management of Human-made Crises,(Management of Human-made Crises,behaviour of National States and IOs)behaviour of National States and IOs)

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

19 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0019 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00

Summary:Summary:

Human-made disastersHuman-made disasters How National States manage crisesHow National States manage crises How International Organizations manage How International Organizations manage

crisescrises

Crises caused by Crises caused by Human-made DisastersHuman-made Disasters

Case Studies:Case Studies:

Great Smog, 1952Great Smog, 1952 Banqiao Dam, 1975Banqiao Dam, 1975 Bhopal, 1984Bhopal, 1984 Chernobyl, 1986Chernobyl, 1986 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill, 1989Exxon Valdez Oil Spill, 1989 Kuwait Oil Spill, 1991Kuwait Oil Spill, 1991 Gulf of Mexico, 2010Gulf of Mexico, 2010

19521952

1952, historical framework:1952, historical framework:

7 years after the end of WWII,7 years after the end of WWII, EDC Treaty signed (it will last 2 years)EDC Treaty signed (it will last 2 years) 25 January: USSR vetoes admission of Italy to UN,25 January: USSR vetoes admission of Italy to UN, 18 February: Greece, Turkey in NATO,18 February: Greece, Turkey in NATO, 26 February, Churchill: “UK has the Bomb!”26 February, Churchill: “UK has the Bomb!” Economic crisis in UK because of the war,Economic crisis in UK because of the war, UK: High quality coal: exported,UK: High quality coal: exported, UK: Low quality coal (high % of sulphur): for UK: Low quality coal (high % of sulphur): for

domestic usedomestic use

Great Smog, London, Great Smog, London, 5-9 December 19525-9 December 1952

Trafalgar Square

Great Smog, London, Great Smog, London, 5-9 December 19525-9 December 1952

Environmental catastrophe caused by cold Environmental catastrophe caused by cold temperatures and abuse of (poisonous) coal temperatures and abuse of (poisonous) coal

12.000 dead, 10.000 sick12.000 dead, 10.000 sick City traffic: impossible, cinemas, theaters City traffic: impossible, cinemas, theaters

closed (screen: not visible!)closed (screen: not visible!)

Considerations/Lessons learnedConsiderations/Lessons learned

Coexistence of Nuclear Power and economic Coexistence of Nuclear Power and economic crisis (Marshall Plan?),crisis (Marshall Plan?),

Marshall PlanMarshall Plan

United KingdomUnited Kingdom3.190 M$3.190 M$ FranceFrance 2.714 2.714 ItalyItaly 1.5091.509 GermanyGermany 1.3911.391 NetherlandsNetherlands 1.0831.083 GreeceGreece 707707

………………..

Considerations/Lessons learnedConsiderations/Lessons learned

Coexistence of Nuclear Power and economic Coexistence of Nuclear Power and economic crisis (Marshall Plan?),crisis (Marshall Plan?),

Government’ cynicism (coal policy),Government’ cynicism (coal policy), Energy: alternative sources not yet availableEnergy: alternative sources not yet available

ENERGYRESOURCES

heavenly

hellish

coal

oil

gas

solar

eolic

maritime

ENERGYRESOURCES

heavenly

hellish

coal

oil

gas

solar

eolic

maritime

open

free

forever

healty

hidden

expensive

limited

dangerous

19751975

1975 historical framework1975 historical framework

Khmer Rouge take the power in Cambodia,Khmer Rouge take the power in Cambodia, Civil war begins in Lebanon,Civil war begins in Lebanon, USA defeated in Vietnam, Saigon renamed Ho-Chi-USA defeated in Vietnam, Saigon renamed Ho-Chi-

Minh City,Minh City, Suez Canal re-opened after 8 years,Suez Canal re-opened after 8 years, Andrei Sacharov Peace Nobelprize,Andrei Sacharov Peace Nobelprize, Spain: Francisco Franco dies, Juan Carlos becomes Spain: Francisco Franco dies, Juan Carlos becomes

King,King, Angola, Mozambique independent.Angola, Mozambique independent.

Banqiao Dam, China, 1975Banqiao Dam, China, 1975

60 dams built in the Fifties in Henan province for 60 dams built in the Fifties in Henan province for hydroelectric energy purposes,hydroelectric energy purposes,

Banqiao Dam: 118 m high, basin: 492 million m3Banqiao Dam: 118 m high, basin: 492 million m3 1975: the dam collapsed / intentionally destroyed,1975: the dam collapsed / intentionally destroyed, Death tall: unknown up to 1991, then declassified: Death tall: unknown up to 1991, then declassified:

171.000,171.000, 16 billion tons water, wave 10 km wide and 7 m high, 16 billion tons water, wave 10 km wide and 7 m high,

speed 50 km/h (like a tsunami),speed 50 km/h (like a tsunami), 6 million houses destroyed,6 million houses destroyed, 11 million displaced people,11 million displaced people, After 10 days, millions surviving on small islands, After 10 days, millions surviving on small islands,

depending on airdrops of fooddepending on airdrops of food

peculiarities:peculiarities:

Destruction of dams: casual/intentional,Destruction of dams: casual/intentional, First ever air battle between PLA Air Force and 60 First ever air battle between PLA Air Force and 60

dams, some of them destroyed by air-surface dams, some of them destroyed by air-surface missiles,missiles,

Meteorological reason: exceptional event, clash Meteorological reason: exceptional event, clash between a typhoon and a front of cold air, 1.060 mm between a typhoon and a front of cold air, 1.060 mm rain in 1 day (average: 800 mm in 1 year)rain in 1 day (average: 800 mm in 1 year)

Technical reason: too small number of sluice-gates Technical reason: too small number of sluice-gates (less than 50% of the need),(less than 50% of the need),

Lessons learned:Lessons learned:

Don’t force the Nature (unpredictable)Don’t force the Nature (unpredictable) Also the Air Force can be usefulAlso the Air Force can be useful

19841984

1984, historical framework.1984, historical framework.

February: Yuri Andropov dies,February: Yuri Andropov dies, Konstantin Chernenko new SG of CP, USSR,Konstantin Chernenko new SG of CP, USSR, July: Los Angeles Olimpic Games,July: Los Angeles Olimpic Games, October: Indira Gandhi killed,October: Indira Gandhi killed,

Union Carbide, producing pesticides,Union Carbide, producing pesticides, Structure in the middle of the town, activated Structure in the middle of the town, activated

in 1980,in 1980, Crisis in 1982, closure in Oct 1984, Crisis in 1982, closure in Oct 1984,

deactivation of security, 60 tons abandoned deactivation of security, 60 tons abandoned underground without refrigeration,underground without refrigeration,

Dec 1984, Toxic cloud: 40 tons,Dec 1984, Toxic cloud: 40 tons, Victims: 4.000 – 15.000,Victims: 4.000 – 15.000, 145 legal actions vs Union Carbide, trials 145 legal actions vs Union Carbide, trials

ended in 2011, without consequences (the only ended in 2011, without consequences (the only accused is hiding from justice)accused is hiding from justice)

Considerations/Lessons learned:Considerations/Lessons learned:

Doubts about morality of “delocalization”Doubts about morality of “delocalization” Companies never pay (they have huge Companies never pay (they have huge

financial capabilities and the best lawyers, financial capabilities and the best lawyers, victims don’t)victims don’t)

19861986

1986, historical framework1986, historical framework

1 January: Spain, Portugal in the EEC,1 January: Spain, Portugal in the EEC, 16 March: referendum in Switzerland (no to 16 March: referendum in Switzerland (no to

UN)UN) 15 April: 2 SCUD missiles from Libia to 15 April: 2 SCUD missiles from Libia to

LampedusaLampedusa 28 July, Gorbaciov: partial withdrawal from 28 July, Gorbaciov: partial withdrawal from

AfghanistanAfghanistan 21 August: toxic cloud from a volcanic lake in 21 August: toxic cloud from a volcanic lake in

Camerun (1.500 victims)Camerun (1.500 victims)

Chernobyl, 26 April 1986Chernobyl, 26 April 1986

Chernobyl, 1986Chernobyl, 1986-a “security test without security” generates high power, high temperature and a catastrofic explosion,

- radioactive cloud over Europe,- evacuation of 336.000 people,- radioactivity: 1 billion times higher than normal,- first technicians on the spot equipped with surgical masks (!),

- Soviet Government: initially silent, later: “Niet problema!”

- official report: 65 victims immediately, plus additional 4.000 in an 80 year timeframe,- report by Greenpeace: 6 million victims in 70 years

The Chernobyl’s heritage:The Chernobyl’s heritage:

After 1986: still on duty because of need of After 1986: still on duty because of need of energyenergy

Reactor n. 4: closed by a “sarcophagus” Reactor n. 4: closed by a “sarcophagus” (duration: 30 years, then 1 billion € for a new one),(duration: 30 years, then 1 billion € for a new one),

Reactor n. 2: damaged by a fire in 1991,Reactor n. 2: damaged by a fire in 1991, Reactor n. 1: deactivated in 1996,Reactor n. 1: deactivated in 1996, Reactor n. 3: “I’ll close it!” (L. Kuchma, 2000)Reactor n. 3: “I’ll close it!” (L. Kuchma, 2000)

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned:

In case of “niet problema”, keep worrying,In case of “niet problema”, keep worrying, Human mistake (avoidable),Human mistake (avoidable), Adoption of new generations of nuclear plants,Adoption of new generations of nuclear plants, Management of nuclear wastes (today: 1 Management of nuclear wastes (today: 1

m3/year, recyclable)m3/year, recyclable)

19891989

1989, historical framework1989, historical framework 7 January: Emperor Hiroito dies in Japan,7 January: Emperor Hiroito dies in Japan, 15 January: Prague, 20th Jan Palach, police arrests 15 January: Prague, 20th Jan Palach, police arrests

hundreds (included V. Havel),hundreds (included V. Havel), 14 February: Iran, fatwa vs. S. Rushdie,14 February: Iran, fatwa vs. S. Rushdie, 4 June: Beijing, slaughter of students in Tienanmen 4 June: Beijing, slaughter of students in Tienanmen

Square,Square, August: Poland, Solidarnosc rules the govt,August: Poland, Solidarnosc rules the govt, 9 November: Berlin wall falls,9 November: Berlin wall falls, 17 November: Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia,17 November: Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia, December. Romania: N. Ceausescu killed, December. Romania: N. Ceausescu killed,

Czechoslowakia: V. Havel President.Czechoslowakia: V. Havel President.

Considerations/Lessons learnedConsiderations/Lessons learned

The trial ended in 2009, 20 years afterThe trial ended in 2009, 20 years after Last 25 years: Exxon became world leaderLast 25 years: Exxon became world leader Oil companies never payOil companies never pay

19911991

Historical framework:

-first call by a GSM cellphone,-9 January: Soviet troops occupy Vilnius trying to stop the independence of Lithuania,-11 January: US Congress authorizes President Bush to attack Iraq,-Gulf war, Iraq launches 45 SCUD missiles on Israel,-1 February: South Africa, end of apartheid,-9 April: Georgia declares the independence,-21 May: India, Rajiv Gandhi killed,-25 June: Croatia, Slovenia independent,-6 August: www,-19 August: coup in USSR, solved by Eltsin,-26 December: URSS disbanded

Kuwait Oil Spill, 1991Kuwait Oil Spill, 1991

730 oil wells in flames, 100 damaged by Iraqi army730 oil wells in flames, 100 damaged by Iraqi army Damaged pipelines throwing oil into the GulfDamaged pipelines throwing oil into the Gulf Attempts of putting out fire last 8 monthsAttempts of putting out fire last 8 months 6 million barrels/day destroyed6 million barrels/day destroyed 10.000 tons black smog in the atmosphere10.000 tons black smog in the atmosphere Crops damaged 2.000 km far from Shatt El-ArabCrops damaged 2.000 km far from Shatt El-Arab Himalaya: black snow, melting of snow doubled, Himalaya: black snow, melting of snow doubled,

pollution of riverspollution of rivers

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned:

Need of developing Need of developing in advancein advance technologies technologies for similar accidents (in 2010 BP was for similar accidents (in 2010 BP was improvising)improvising)

Gulf of Mexico, 2010Gulf of Mexico, 2010

Andrews Air Base, Maryland, 31 March 2010Obama orders an increase in oil offshore extraction

Gulf of Mexico, 2010Gulf of Mexico, 2010

20 April 2010: “Deepwater Horizon” disaster

Offshore Oil ExtractionsOffshore Oil Extractions

1947: first platform off Louisiana, company 1947: first platform off Louisiana, company Kerr-McGee (5 m),Kerr-McGee (5 m),

…… …… …… 1994: “Auger” (900 m),1994: “Auger” (900 m), 1996: “Mars” (950 m),1996: “Mars” (950 m), 1999: “Ursa” (1.000 m),1999: “Ursa” (1.000 m),

Offshore Oil Extractions:Offshore Oil Extractions:a dangerous escalationa dangerous escalation

2000: “Hoover Diana” (1.500 m),2000: “Hoover Diana” (1.500 m), 2002: “Horn Mountain” (1.600 m),2002: “Horn Mountain” (1.600 m), 2004: “Devil’s Tower” (1.700 m),2004: “Devil’s Tower” (1.700 m), 2005: “Constitution” (1.500 m, 13.000 tons, 600 2005: “Constitution” (1.500 m, 13.000 tons, 600

M$, 300 km SW from New Orleans),M$, 300 km SW from New Orleans), 2007: “Atlantis” (BP, 58.700 tons, 2.150 m),2007: “Atlantis” (BP, 58.700 tons, 2.150 m), 2007: “Independence Hub” (2.400 m),2007: “Independence Hub” (2.400 m), 2008: Shell “Perdido Star” (towed from Finland 2008: Shell “Perdido Star” (towed from Finland

to the Gulf of Mexico, Tour Eiffel-like, 2.400 m),to the Gulf of Mexico, Tour Eiffel-like, 2.400 m),

““Deepwater Horizon”Deepwater Horizon”

““old” structure (1998, on the basis of old” structure (1998, on the basis of “Deepwater Nautilus”, an obsolete platform)“Deepwater Nautilus”, an obsolete platform)

2001: given to Company Transocean,2001: given to Company Transocean, BP Security Plan (52 pages), examined by BP Security Plan (52 pages), examined by

FMMS, Federal Mineral Management Service: FMMS, Federal Mineral Management Service: “…an oil spill is highly improbable… “…an oil spill is highly improbable… In that case, thanks to our capabilities, we In that case, thanks to our capabilities, we don’t foresee any negative environmental don’t foresee any negative environmental impact”impact”

Lessons Learned:Lessons Learned: Don’t believe to “security plans”,Don’t believe to “security plans”, Guilty never pay (examples: Vajont, Bhopal, Guilty never pay (examples: Vajont, Bhopal,

Exxon Valdez,…)Exxon Valdez,…) Need of developing Need of developing in advancein advance technologies for technologies for

similar accidents (in 2010 BP was improvising),similar accidents (in 2010 BP was improvising), Oil companies recover after few months,Oil companies recover after few months, Environment recovers after decades/centuries,Environment recovers after decades/centuries, Privilege renewable sources of energyPrivilege renewable sources of energy

National National States States and and

International International OrganizationsOrganizations

Role of military units in CMRole of military units in CM Yesterday: fightingYesterday: fighting Today: fighting, re-building, stabilizingToday: fighting, re-building, stabilizing

What military units do:-humanitarian corridors (5 corridors in Mozambique, Bosnia: from Ploce to Mostar-Sarajevo, 2 LOCs for Kosovo,…)

-protected areas (bad UN experience)Bosnia: Srebrenica and Zepa, July 1995Croatia: UNPA North & South, August 1995

-mine clearing100 millions, 300 types. Each month: 800 dead, 1.200 wounded. Statistics: military reasons at the 11th place (1st: collecting woods, 2nd: pasturing cattle, 3rd: collecting water, 4th: playing,…)

-inventing peace (distributing toys, medicines, building roads, bridges, learning local language, impartiality with ethnic groups,…)

Military units:

-always ready -immediately deployable -always linked (communications) -self protected -standard procedures-what to do in particular? NOTHING!

National StatesNational States

Recent crises:-Chernobyl 1986,-Kursk submarine 2000,-Dubrovka theater 2002,-Beslan school 2004,-war with Georgia 2008

Procedures: sometimes affected by Czarist and Soviet heritage (keeping the secret, lack of transparency, brutality, low respect for human life,…)

NATO-Russia Council?

NATO – RUSSIA COUNCIL

-fight against terrorism; -fight against terrorism; --crisis management;crisis management; -cooperation against the proliferation of WMDs; -cooperation against the proliferation of WMDs; -armaments control and CBMs; -armaments control and CBMs; -defense against theater missiles; -defense against theater missiles; -search and rescue at sea; -search and rescue at sea; -cooperation among military and Defense sector reform; -cooperation among military and Defense sector reform; -civil emergencies; -civil emergencies; -civil and military control of the air space; -civil and military control of the air space; -scientific cooperation; -scientific cooperation;

……any other useful matter of reciprocal interestany other useful matter of reciprocal interest

National StatesNational StatesRecent crises:

-Vietnam war (1964-1975),-1st (2nd?) Gulf war (1990-1991),-Exxon Valdez, 1998,-Twin Towers, 11 September 2001,-GWOT, war in Afghanistan, 2001-2014,-2nd (3rd?) Gulf war, 2003-2010,-Katrina hurricane, 2005,-Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, 2010

Doctrines and tools:National Defense Security (4 Services), Homeland Security (National Guard)

National StatesNational StatesRecent crises:

-since 1948 permanently at war,-war with Hezbollah (Lebanon) 2006,-war with Hamas (Gaza) 2009,-Freedom Flotilla (2010)

Crisis Management:-based on an excellent intelligence-enforced with strong decisionism-no multilaterality-multi-bilateralism

International OrganizationsInternational Organizations

UNUN EUEU NATONATO OSCEOSCE SCOSCO

United NationsUnited Nations

www.un.org

United NationsUnited Nations

Doctrine:Doctrine: UN Charter (Chapters VI, VII)UN Charter (Chapters VI, VII)

Decisional body:Decisional body: Security Council (veto power by 5 perm Members)Security Council (veto power by 5 perm Members)

Enforcement:Enforcement: TCN, Troop Contributing NationsTCN, Troop Contributing Nations SHIRBRIG, Stand-by High Readiness Brigade (now SHIRBRIG, Stand-by High Readiness Brigade (now

disbanded)disbanded)

UN OperationsUN Operations ……………… UNMOGIPUNMOGIP India/PakistanIndia/Pakistan UNTSOUNTSO Israel/PalestineIsrael/Palestine UNIFILUNIFIL LebanonLebanon ONUMOZONUMOZ MozambiqueMozambique UNOSOMUNOSOM SomaliaSomalia ONUCONUC CongoCongo UNMIBHUNMIBH Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-Herzegovina UNMIKUNMIK KosovoKosovo UNAMAUNAMA AfghanistanAfghanistan ………………

UNMEE

How much do UN Operations cost?How much do UN Operations cost?

Examples:Examples: 1993: 3,6 B$ (Former Yugoslavia, Somalia),1993: 3,6 B$ (Former Yugoslavia, Somalia), 1998: 1 B$,1998: 1 B$, 2001: 3 B$,2001: 3 B$, 2004: 2,3 B$2004: 2,3 B$ 2006: 5 B$2006: 5 B$

Average: 3 B$ (payed by member States)Average: 3 B$ (payed by member States) Soldiers: payed by Govts, Govts payed by UN (1.000 Soldiers: payed by Govts, Govts payed by UN (1.000

USD/month)USD/month)

Consequence:Consequence:

List of 10 major TCNList of 10 major TCN PakistanPakistan 10.66110.661 BangladeshBangladesh 10.48210.482 IndiaIndia 8.7118.711 NigeriaNigeria 5.8465.846 EgyptEgypt 5.4815.481 NepalNepal 4.7314.731 JordanJordan 3.8553.855 RwandaRwanda 3.7213.721 GhanaGhana 3.2403.240 UruguayUruguay 2.4612.461

a collateral problem:a collateral problem:

UN SC REFORMUN SC REFORM

European UnionEuropean Union

www.europa.eu

DECISIONMAKINGPROCESS:VARIABLEGEOMETRY

European UnionEuropean Union

Doctrine:Doctrine: European TreatiesEuropean Treaties Solana PaperSolana Paper

Decisional body:Decisional body: European CouncilEuropean Council

Enforcement:Enforcement: 5 HQ, 15 Battle Groups5 HQ, 15 Battle Groups

OPERATIONS:OPERATIONS:20032003::- EUPM, Bosnia-Herzegovina- EUPM, Bosnia-Herzegovina- “Concordia”, Macedonia- “Concordia”, Macedonia- “Proxima” Macedonia- “Proxima” Macedonia- “Artemis”, Congo- “Artemis”, Congo- Euromarfor (GWOT Indian Ocean)- Euromarfor (GWOT Indian Ocean)

20042004::- substitution of NATO in Bosnia-Herzegovina (“Althea”)- substitution of NATO in Bosnia-Herzegovina (“Althea”)- EUSEC, Congo- EUSEC, Congo- EUJUST “Themis”, Georgia- EUJUST “Themis”, Georgia

OPERATIONS:OPERATIONS:20052005::- EUPOL KINSHASA, Congo- EUPOL KINSHASA, Congo- AMIS EU Supporting Group, Darfur – Sudan- AMIS EU Supporting Group, Darfur – Sudan- EUJUST “Lex”, Iraq- EUJUST “Lex”, Iraq- Aceh Monitoring Mission, Indonesia- Aceh Monitoring Mission, Indonesia- EU Border Assistance Management, RAFAH, Palestina- EU Border Assistance Management, RAFAH, Palestina- EU BAM, Ucraina-Moldova- EU BAM, Ucraina-Moldova

20062006::- EUCOPPS, Palestina- EUCOPPS, Palestina- EUFOR DR Congo- EUFOR DR Congo

OPERATIONS:OPERATIONS:

20072007:: - EUPOL, Afghanistan- EUPOL, Afghanistan- Chad- Chad

20082008:: - Georgia- Georgia- RD Congo - RD Congo

2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014….2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014…. ??? ???

problemproblem: “deployability”(2 million soldiers, but…)

EU, European UnionEU, European Union

Never done ESDP missions: Never done ESDP missions: NEONEO

(Non-combatant Evacuation Operations)(Non-combatant Evacuation Operations)

Foreseen by Petersberg TasksForeseen by Petersberg Tasks

(1996, former WEU)(1996, former WEU)

EASIEST PETERSBERG TASK: “NEO”

BEIRUT 2006: WHAT NEO?

DURAND DE LA PENNE, SAN GIORGIO, ALISEO, 2xC130,…

IERA PETRA, JEAN DE VIENNE, MISTRAL,…

ILLUSTRIOUS, BULWARK, GLOUCESTER + 4 HELOS,…

1 MIL. AIRCRAFT AT DAMASCO, ROAD,…

ROAD LEBANON - SYRIA

PSARA, THEMISTOCLIS, SALAMIS, KANARIS, RODOS, IKARIA, HIOS+ 6 HELICOPTERS,…

?(only “preemptive evacuation”)

Lebanon 2006: a lost opportunityHaiti 2010: the same

NATONATO

www.nato.int

DECISION MAKINGPROCESS:CONSENSUS

NATONATO

Doctrine:Doctrine: Washington Treaty (Art. 5)Washington Treaty (Art. 5) NATO Strategic Concept (last: Dec 2010)NATO Strategic Concept (last: Dec 2010)

Decisional body:Decisional body: NAC, North Atlantic CouncilNAC, North Atlantic Council

Enforcement:Enforcement: SHAPE, Regional Commands, troops provided by SHAPE, Regional Commands, troops provided by

Member CountriesMember Countries NRFNRF

NATONATO

EADRCC, Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response EADRCC, Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center (est. 1998)Coordination Center (est. 1998)

www.nato.int/eadrcc/

Last requests for assistance:Last requests for assistance:

6 June 2010: floods in Hungary,6 June 2010: floods in Hungary, 21 May 2010: floods in southern Poland,21 May 2010: floods in southern Poland, 21 May: earthquake, heavy rainfalls in 21 May: earthquake, heavy rainfalls in

Tajikistan,Tajikistan, 7 January 2010: floods in Albania,7 January 2010: floods in Albania, Spring 2014: floods in Croatia, Bosnia-H, Spring 2014: floods in Croatia, Bosnia-H,

SerbiaSerbia

Consequence management exercises:Consequence management exercises:

11-17 September 2010, Armenia

Scenario: earthquake of 7,3 Richter scale

NATO Response ForceNATO Response Forcehttp://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htmhttp://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm

Launched at Prague Summit, 2002Proposed by Mr. Rumsfeld21.000 troops from Army, Navy, Air ForceAim: oblige European Allies to do moreEmployed twice: Pakistan earthquake, Katrina

NATONATO

PRTs, Provincial Reconstruction TeamsPRTs, Provincial Reconstruction Teams

PRTs: space for improvementPRTs: space for improvement

National lead: wrong,National lead: wrong, PRTs should be MN, at UN/NATO level, PRTs should be MN, at UN/NATO level,

established since peacetime, ready to be established since peacetime, ready to be completed/deployed,completed/deployed,

Turkey: civilian PRT, excellent exampleTurkey: civilian PRT, excellent example

OSCEOSCE

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the primary instrument for early warning, Europe is the primary instrument for early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management conflict prevention, crisis management ......

www.osce.org

Politico-military dimension:Politico-military dimension: Arms controlArms control Border managementBorder management Combating terrorismCombating terrorism Conflict preventionConflict prevention Military reformMilitary reform policingpolicing DECISION MAKING PROCESS:

CONSENSUS, -1, -2

Basic OSCE Documents:Basic OSCE Documents:

The Helsinki Chart (1975)The Helsinki Chart (1975) The OSCE Concept of Comprehensive and The OSCE Concept of Comprehensive and

Co-operative SecurityCo-operative Security Compendium of OSCE Mechanisms and Compendium of OSCE Mechanisms and

ProceduresProcedures Summary of OSCE Mechanisms and Summary of OSCE Mechanisms and

ProceduresProcedures

SCO, Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationSCO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization

www.sectsco.org

SCO Summits:SCO Summits: 1996:1996: ShanghaiShanghai 1997:1997: MoscowMoscow 1998:1998: AlmatyAlmaty 1999:1999: BishkekBishkek

2000:2000: DushanbeDushanbe 2001:2001: ShanghaiShanghai 2002:2002: St. PetersburgSt. Petersburg 2003:2003: BishkekBishkek 2004:2004: TashkentTashkent 2005:2005: AstanaAstana 2006:2006: ShanghaiShanghai 2007:2007: BishkekBishkek 2008:2008: DushanbeDushanbe 2009:2009: EkaterinburgEkaterinburg 2010: 2010: TashkentTashkent 2011: 2011: AstanaAstana 2012:2012: BeijingBeijing 2013: 2013: Bishkek Bishkek 2014: 2014:

SCOSCO

RATS, Regional Anti-Terrorism RATS, Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (Tashkent)Structure (Tashkent)

Annual exercisesAnnual exercises

SCO Military Exercises:SCO Military Exercises: 2002: 2002: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2003:2003: CooperationCooperation 2004:2004: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2005:2005: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2006:2006: Vostok AntiterrorVostok Antiterror 2007:2007: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2008:2008: Volgograd AntiterrorVolgograd Antiterror 2009:2009: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2010:2010: Peace MissionPeace Mission 2011:2011: Peace MissionPeace Mission

Conclusion:Conclusion:

Decreasing importance of National States,Decreasing importance of National States, Increasing importance of International Increasing importance of International

OrganizationsOrganizations

Future: division of labour:Future: division of labour:States will manage Emergencies,States will manage Emergencies,

I.O.s will manage CrisesI.O.s will manage Crises

Conclusion:Conclusion:

Decreasing importance of National States,Decreasing importance of National States, Increasing importance of International Increasing importance of International

OrganizationsOrganizations

Future: division of labour:Future: division of labour:States will manage Emergencies,States will manage Emergencies,

I.O.s will manage CrisesI.O.s will manage Crises

IOs don’t “invent” casus belli!

Suggestion for a Thesis:Suggestion for a Thesis:

Crises determined by oil spill: comparing Crises determined by oil spill: comparing different cases (Kuwait, Alaska, Gulf of different cases (Kuwait, Alaska, Gulf of Mexico…)Mexico…)

NATO-Russia Council, a tool of crisis NATO-Russia Council, a tool of crisis ManagementManagement

Crisis Management Crisis Management and Preventionand Prevention

(Management of Human-made Crises,(Management of Human-made Crises,behaviour of National States and IOs)behaviour of National States and IOs)

Giovanni MarizzaGiovanni Marizzagianni.marizza@yahoo.itgianni.marizza@yahoo.it

19 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.0019 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00