CRISIL Research Ier Report Bhartiya International 2013 Q2FY14

8/13/2019 CRISIL Research Ier Report Bhartiya International 2013 Q2FY14

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CRISILIERIndependentEquityResearch

Enhancing investment decisions

Bhartiya InternationalLtd

Q2FY14 Results Update


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Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making processAnalysis

of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISILFundamental Grade Assessment

CRISILValuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (


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Bhartiya International LtdHealthy bookings; PE investors exit is a monitorable

Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)

Industry Textiles, Apparels and Luxury Goods

December 02, 2013

Fair Value 285

CMP 185

1

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

Bhartiya International Ltds (Bhartiyas) Q2FY14 standalone (fashion business) revenues

exceeded but earnings were below CRISIL Researchs expectations due to lower margin.The real estate development business through its associate company (40% share)Bhartiya

Urban Infrastructure & Land Development Company Pvt. Ltd (BUILDCO) has reported

bookings of 2.4 mn sq ft as of Q2FY14 (90% of the launched area). Construction of the

residential project is also progressing well. The management is still evaluating different

options for the PE investors exit; this is a key monitorable. We maintain the fundamental

grade of 3/5.

Fashion business earnings below expectations due to lower-than-expected margin

Revenues grew by 46.3% y-o-y and 55.6% q-o-q to 1,056 mndriven by strong growth

in both the business segments - leather products (~90% contribution to total revenues)

and textile apparels.

EBITDA margin declined by 200 bps y-o-y to 8.1% as margins in the leather accessories

and textile businesses were under pressure.

Despite strong growth in revenues, PAT recorded a lower growth of 19.8% y-o-y (46mn) due to lower margin.

Working capital cycle has been stable at 163 days as of September 2013.

Real estate projecthealthy bookings in Q2FY14, construction progressing wellBookings during Q2FY14 were healthy at 0.4 mn sq ft; cumulatively 2.4 mn sq ft of the project

has been booked (90% of the launched area). Construction of the project is progressing well;

as of Q2FY14, it spent 3,250 mn (excluding land cost), funded through debt and customer

advances of 2,701 mn. The company plans to launch 0.5 mn sq ft of residential projects in

two-three months. Given such a large project is a first for the company, execution is a

monitorable.

Exit of the PE investor is a monitorableIn FY08, the PE investor had invested 1,500 mn in BUILDCO for a 26% stake . As

highlighted earlier, BUILDCO bought back 3.4% equity for 500 mn in Q1FY14; the next

significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14

update, the management is still evaluating options they might bring in a new investor or

promoter entities may provide an exit. In the eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO

(unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of 22.7%; this could impact our valuation

adversely. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised.

Fair value retained at 285per share

Factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the accessories and textile businesses, we have

lowered margin estimates for FY14 and FY15. Accordingly, earnings estimates are lowered.

We continue to use the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method to value Bhartiya but have retained

fair value of 285 per share as more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate

business, which is unchanged.

KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED)

(mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EOperating income 1,952 2,507 3,039 3,918 4,616

EBITDA 186 270 273 369 443

Adj net income 68 118 104 147 183

Adj EPS () 7.1 11.3 9.4 12.8 16.0

EPS growth (%) 33.7 58.5 (16.6) 36.1 24.6

Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.7

RoCE (%) 9.4 12.3 10.6 12.6 13.9

RoE (%) 6.0 9.4 7.5 9.7 10.9

PE (x) 7.3 4.6 19.6 14.4 11.6

P/BV (x) 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.4 10.8 8.6 7.4

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 6218/20898

NSE/BSE ticker BIL

Face value ( per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 11.1

Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 2,049/33

Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn) 2,966/48

52-week range ()/(H/L) 245/113

Beta 1.3

Free float (%) 54.0%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 25,684

Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 4.9

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

Bhartiya -2% 16% -16% 10%

CNX 500 0% 13% 3% 3%

ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Ravi Dodhia [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

FundamentalGrade

Poor

Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Strong

Downs

ide

Stron

g

Upsid

e

45.5% 45.5% 45.5% 46%

0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0%

54.2% 54.5% 54.5% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep -13

Pro mo ter FII Oth ers
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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2

Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)

( mn) Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q2FY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY14 H1FY13 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 1,056 679 722 55.6 46.3 1,734 1,150 50.8Raw materials cost 704 365 458 93.0 53.7 1,068 693 54.1

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 66.7% 53.7% 63.4% 1292bps 322bps 61.6% 60.3% 131bps

Employees cost 40 36 29 9.8 40.5 77 53 43.4

Other expenses 226 227 162 (0.2) 39.4 453 290 56.4

EBITDA 86 51 73 68.8 17.3 136 114 19.9

EBITDA margin 8.1% 7.5% 10.1% 64bps -200bps 7.9% 9.9% -203bps

Depreciation 6 6 5 2.4 27.3 13 10 30.6

EBIT 79 45 68 78.0 16.6 124 104 18.9

Interest and finance charges 26 21 21 22.9 23.8 48 40 20.6

Operating PBT 53 23 47 129.0 13.3 76 65 17.8

Other Income 7 5 6 43.8 24.1 12 11 13.6

PBT 60 28 53 113.7 14.5 89 76 17.2Tax 14 7 14 100.0 - 21 20 5.0

PAT 46 21 39 118.2 19.8 68 56 21.6

Adj PAT 46 21 39 118.2 19.8 68 56 21.6

Adj PAT margin 4.4% 3.1% 5.4% 126bps -97bps 3.9% 4.8% -93bps

No. of equity shares (mn) 11.1 11.1 11.1 - - 11.1 11.1 -

Adj EPS () 4.2 1.9 3.5 118.2 19.8 6.1 5.0 21.6

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Revenues recorded strong growth; margin under pressure PAT recorded lower growth due to decline in margin

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

657 397 429 722 733 590 679 1,056

7.3%6.7%

9.5% 10.1%

7.7%

5.6%

7.5%8.1%

0%

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12%

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Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

Q1FY14

Q2FY14

( mn)

Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)

18 6 17 39 21 6 21 46

2.7%

1.4%

3.9%

5.4%

2.9%

1.0%

3.1%

4.4%

-2%

-1%

0%

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Q2FY13

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Q1FY14

Q2FY14

( mn)

PAT PAT Margin (RHS)


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Bhartiya International Ltd

3

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars Unit

FY14E FY15E

Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues ( mn) 3,918 3,918 0.0% 4,616 4,616 0.0%

EBITDA ( mn) 390 369 -5.5% 468 443 -5.4%

EBITDA margin % 10.0% 9.4% -55bps 10.1% 9.6% -55bps

PAT ( mn) 159 147 -7.3% 197 183 -6.7%

PAT margin % 4.1% 3.8% -30bps 4.3% 4.0% -28bps

EPS () 13.9 12.8 -7.3% 17.1 16.0 -6.7%

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item FY14E FY15E

Revenues No change

EBITDA margins Lowered factoring in lower-than-expected margins in the leather accessories and textile businesses

PAT Lowered in line with revision in margin estimates

0

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Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Bhartiya


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4

Valuation Grade: 5/5

We have lowered earnings estimates by 7.3% for FY14 and 6.7% for FY15 factoring in lower-

than-expected margins in the leather accessories and textiles businesses. We continue to use

the SOTP method to value Bhartiya but have retained our fair value of 285 per share as

more than 70% of the valuation is derived from the real estate business, which is unchanged.

At the current market price of 185, the valuation grade is 5/5.

The fashion business value is retained at 79 per share based on the DCF method. We

continue to value the SEZ business at 10 per share at investment value. The real estate

business value is retained at 196 per share based on the net asset value (NAV) approach.

The management was earlier planning to provide an exit to the PE investor through a

buyback. Owing to imposition of new tax on unlisted entities for such buybacks, the

management has shelved its buyback plans. According to the management, the next

significant tranche to the PE investor is due in March 2014. As highlighted in our Q1FY14

update, the management is still evaluating different options they might bring in a new

investor or promoter entities may provide an exit; this remains a key monitorable. In the

eventuality of buyback of shares, BUILDCO (unlisted) will be subject to distribution tax of

22.7%. We will revisit our fair value once the exit plan of the PE investor is finalised.

Businesses Fair value (per share) Valuation method

Fashion 79 DCF

SEZ 10 Investment valueReal estate 196 NAV

Total fair value 285

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

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()

Bhartiya 3x 6x

9x 12x 15x

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500

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( mn)

EV 2x 4x 6x 8x


7/12

Bhartiya International Ltd

5

P/Epremium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on Bhartiya International Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

11-Oct-2012 Initiating Coverage 3/5 147 5/5 65

09-Nov-2012 Q2FY13 Result update 3/5 180 5/5 133

12-Feb-2013 Q3FY13 Result update 3/5 247 5/5 170

15-May-2013 Event Update 3/5 285 4/5 234

19-Jun-2013 Q4FY13 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 209

23-Sep-2013 Q1FY14 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 180

02-Dec-2013 Q2FY14 Result Update 3/5 285 5/5 185

-80%

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Premium/Discount to CNX 500

Median premium/discount to CNX 500

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1820

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(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


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6

Annexure: Financials (Consolidated)

Note: BUILDCO is not consolidated as it is an associate company

Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet

( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E ( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EOperating income 1,952 2,507 3,039 3,918 4,616 Liabilities

EBITDA 186 270 273 369 443 Equity share capital 95 105 111 115 115

EBITDA margin 9.5% 10.8% 9.0% 9.4% 9.6% Reserves 1,099 1,224 1,328 1,486 1,651

Depreciation 28 30 32 40 43 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 158 240 241 328 399 Net worth 1,194 1,329 1,438 1,601 1,766

Interest 82 103 119 135 150 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 76 137 123 193 250 Other debt 627 767 1,038 1,138 1,238

Other income 22 23 22 25 22 Total debt 627 767 1,038 1,138 1,238

Exceptional inc/(exp) (4) (3) (3) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 13 17 23 28 33

PBT 94 157 141 218 272 Total liabilities 1,835 2,113 2,499 2,766 3,037

Tax provision 30 41 40 71 88 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 455 478 647 657 685

PAT (Reported) 64 115 101 147 183 Capital WIP 28 91 2 72 50

Less: Exceptionals (4) (3) (3) - - Total fixed assets 483 569 649 729 735

Adjusted PAT 68 118 104 147 183 Investments 389 411 412 412 412

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 777 949 1,081 1,342 1,581

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Sundry debtors 137 251 381 486 573

Growth Loans and advances 218 198 221 293 345

Operating income (%) (5.7) 28.4 21.2 28.9 17.8 Cash & bank balance 96 83 121 78 79

EBITDA (%) 4.2 45.2 1.2 34.9 20.1 Marketable securities 38 33 27 27 27

Adj PAT (%) 46.0 75.3 (11.8) 41.1 24.6 Total current assets 1,267 1,515 1,831 2,226 2,605

Adj EPS (%) 33.7 58.5 (16.6) 36.1 24.6 Total current liabilities 310 388 403 610 726

Net current assets 956 1,126 1,428 1,616 1,880

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 6 7 9 9 9

EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 10.8 9.0 9.4 9.6 Total assets 1,835 2,113 2,499 2,766 3,037

Adj PAT Margin (%) 3.5 4.7 3.4 3.8 4.0

RoE (%) 6.0 9.4 7.5 9.7 10.9 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 9.4 12.3 10.6 12.6 13.9 ( mn ) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

RoIC (%) 14.5 16.6 13.8 14.7 14.9 Pre-tax prof it 98 160 144 218 272

Total tax paid (25) (38) (34) (66) (83)

Valuations Depreciation 28 30 32 40 43

Price-earnings (x) 7.3 4.6 19.6 14.4 11.6 Working capital changes (275) (188) (270) (231) (262)

Price-book (x) 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Net cash from operations (175) (37) (128) (39) (30)

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.4 10.8 8.6 7.4 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (87) (116) (115) (120) (50)

Div idend payout ratio (%) 14.8 9.6 11.5 8.5 8.5 Investments and others 22 (17) 5 - -

Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 Net cash from investments (65) (133) (110) (120) (50)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 34 50 36 30 -

Inventory days 177 169 154 151 150 Debt raised/(repaid) 162 140 271 100 100

Creditors days 52 54 46 53 53 Dividend (incl. tax) (11) (13) (14) (15) (18)

Debtor days 28 39 49 50 49 Others (incl extraordinaries) 29 (20) (17) - -

Working capital days 167 159 165 155 151 Net cash from financing 215 156 276 115 82

Gross asset turnover (x) 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.9 Change in cash position (25) (13) 38 (43) 2

Net asset turnover (x) 5.0 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.9 Closing cash 96 83 121 78 79

Sales/operating as sets (x ) 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.7 6.3

Current ratio (x) 4.1 3.9 4.5 3.7 3.6

Debt-equity (x) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 ( mn ) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14

Net debt/equity (x) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Net Sales 429 722 733 590 679 1,056

Interest coverage 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.7 Change (q-o-q) 8% 68% 2% -19% 15% 56%

EBITDA 41 73 56 33 51 86Per share Change (q-o-q) 53% 79% -23% -42% 54% 69%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA margin 10% 10% 8% 6% 7% 8%

Adj EPS () 7.1 11.3 9.4 12.8 16.0 PAT 17 39 21 6 21 46

CEPS 10.1 14.2 12.3 16.4 19.8 Adj PAT 17 39 21 6 21 46

Book value 126.1 127.0 130.0 139.6 154.0 Change (q-o-q) 198% 129% -45% -71% 247% 118%

Dividend () 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 Adj PAT margin 4% 5% 3% 1% 3% 4%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 9.5 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.5 Adj EPS 1.6 3.5 1.9 0.6 1.9 4.2

Quarterly financials (standalone)


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This page is intent ional ly lef t blank


10/12


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CRISIL Research Ier Report Bhartiya International 2013 Q2FY14

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Transcript of CRISIL Research Ier Report Bhartiya International 2013 Q2FY14