Criminal Geographical Profiling
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Transcript of Criminal Geographical Profiling
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Analysing the offence locations and residential base
of serial arsonists in New Zealand
MICHAEL J. EDWARDS & RANDOLPH C. GRACE
Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Abstract
The purpose of the present paper was to test the applicability of the Canter and Larkin (1993) circle theory of environmentalrange for offending by serial arsonists in New Zealand. Police files for 45 serial arsonists convicted between 1988 and 2003
were obtained, and maps were produced for each offender indicating arson sites as well as the home address at the time ofoffending. Criminal range circles produced according to the Canter and Larkin method encompassed all offences in 84% ofcases, consistent with prior research. Offenders were classified as marauders or commuters depending on whether the homebase was contained within the criminal range circle. Contrary to previous research, a predominant marauder pattern was notfound; the present sample was equally divided between marauders and commuters. Regressions of distance between homebase and furthest offence on the distance between the two furthest offences yielded a slope of 0.93, indicating that formarauder offenders, the home base tended to be situated eccentrically near the circumference of the criminal range circle.No demographic or offence-related variables were found that reliably differentiated between marauders and commuters.Overall, these results suggest that the criminal range circle may provide only limited information for predicting the homebase of serial arsonists in New Zealand.
Psychological profiling is an investigative strategy
used by law enforcement authorities that attempts togenerate a detailed description of an unknown
offender (Bartol & Bartol, 1994; Egger, 1999). From
a practical standpoint, one of the most important
items to help identify an offender is their place of
residence. For serial offenders, the locations of
crimes can provide useful clues regarding the
offenders residence. As a result, geographical
profiling (i.e., analysis of the spatial distribution of
crime sites) has become a focus of research in
forensic psychology (Rossmo, 1997). However,
Australasian research on geographical profiling has
been limited, and there have been no studies to date
conducted within New Zealand.One of the most important assumptions in
geographical profiling is that the selection of offence
sites is related to the residential address or home base
of the offender. Brantingham and Brantingham
(1981) suggested that the everyday behaviour of
offenders (and law-abiding citizens) defined an
activity space. Because individuals return to their
home base or domicile after moving through their
activity space, it is reasonable to expect that mentalrepresentations (cognitive maps) of significant
environmental features would be determined to a
large extent by the location of their home. Thus,
serial offending may reveal a domocentric pattern
with respect to the offenders residential base.
An early pioneering study was conducted by White
(1932, cited in Pyle, 1974), who examined 481 cases
of crime against people and property in Indianapolis.
White analysed distances from the offenders resi-
dence to their offence locations. The study had two
important findings. First, that crimes against people
were committed extremely close to the offenders
home (mean distance of 0.84 miles [1.35 km]); andsecond, that crimes against property were committed
at more considerable distances from the offenders
residence (mean distance of 1.72 miles [2.77 km]).
White suggested that property offenders were more
likely to move out of their neighbourhoods to
commit their crimes, in contrast to those offending
against persons. Whites results were consistent with
Correspondence: R. C. Grace, Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand.
E-mail: [email protected]
Australian Psychologist, November 2006; 41(3): 219 226
ISSN 0005-0067 print/ISSN 1742-9544 online The Australian Psychological Society Ltd
Published by Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/00050060600637626
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a later study by Amir (1971), who found that crime
locations of serial rapists in Philadelphia tended to
radiate outward from a fixed point.
Canter and Larkin (1993) proposed an influential
model that is relevant for geographical profiling: the
circle theory of environmental range. They distin-
guished between the criminal range, which is a
region that includes all offence sites of the offender,and the home range, which, similar to the
Brantingham and Brantingham (1981) activity space,
is an area familiar to the offender in which they
operate in all noncriminal activities. Canter and
Larkin assumed that both the criminal range and
home range could be adequately described as circles.
Although there is a variety of ways in which the
criminal range could be specified, Canter and Larkin
suggested a simple procedure: The criminal range
was the circle whose diameter was a line drawn
between the two offence sites furthest apart. They
further proposed two possible models of the spatial
distribution of offending: the commuter and mar-
auder models, which differ in terms of whether or not
the home base is located within the criminal range.
Note that in terms of distinguishing between the
commuter and marauder models the home range
circle does not need to be specified, and Canter and
Larkin did not propose a method for doing so.
As shown in Figure 1, the commuter model
describes the geographical distribution of crime sites
by an offender who travels away from their home
base into another area to commit their offences.
Thus, there is no overlap between the location of the
criminal range and the offenders home base. Notethat this hypothesis does not imply that the criminal
range is unfamiliar to the offender, but rather that it
is an appreciable distance from the area in which he
[sic] habitually operates as a non-offender (Canter
& Larkin, 1993, p. 65).
The second model of the circle theory proposed by
Canter and Larkin (1993) is the marauder model.
According to this model, the offender moves out
from his or her home base to commit crimes and
then returns once the offence is completed, as shown
in Figure 2. The offence sites tend to be distributed
systematically around the home base, and there is
significant overlap between the home range and
criminal range. Thus, the marauder model implies a
relationship between the offence locations and theoffenders home, and suggests that the geographical
distribution of crimes may provide information about
the home base.
Canter and Larkin (1993) provided support for
their theory based on a study of 45 serial rapists in
London, who had committed an average of 5.6
offences each. They found that for 91% of the
offenders, all the crime sites were contained within
the criminal range circle constructed as described
above. This suggests that serial rapists may operate in
a limited geographic area, in accord with the circle
theory of environmental range. They also found that
39 (87%) of these offenders lived within the
proposed circle, consistent with the marauder model.
Canter and Larkin (1993) formulated an addi-
tional extension of the circle theory: the home range
hypothesis. They proposed that if criminals are
offending within a circular criminal range, and that
their home base is within this proposed area, it might
be possible to make some further generalisations
about the relative location of their home base within
the criminal range. Thus, the home-range hypothesis
applies only to those offenders whose criminal
behaviour is consistent with the marauder model.
The procedure developed for the home rangehypothesis concerns the relationships between two
variables: the distance between the two furthest
Figure 1. The commuter model of spatial behaviour (Adapted
from Canter & Larkin, 1993).
Figure 2. The marauder model of spatial behaviour (Adapted from
Canter & Larkin, 1993).
220 M. J. Edwards & R. C. Grace
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offence sites (X) and the distance between the
furthest offence site and the offenders home base
(Y). If the home base is situated at the centre of the
criminal range, then the distance from the home base
to the furthest offence location would be half of the
maximum distance of those two furthest offences.
Thus, for a sample of marauder offenders, a
regression of maximum distance between offencesites (X) on a maximum distance from the offenders
home (Y) will have a slope between 0.50 and 1.00. A
slope near 0.50 would imply that the home base is
typically situated in the center of the circle, whereas a
slope close to 1.0 would imply that the home base is
eccentrically placed near the circumference of the
proposed circle. Canter and Larkin (1993) found
that the distance between the two furthest locations
and maximum distance from the home base to an
offence site produced a strong positive correlation,
r0.93, p50.001. The regression equation was
y0.84x 0.61, suggesting that the home base was
eccentrically placed near the circumference and
unlikely to be close to the centre. Moreover, Canter
and Larkin noted that the average minimum distance
travelled per offender was 1.53 miles (2.46 km),
which is greater than the constant term in the
regression (0.61 miles; 0.98 km). This suggests that
offenders may have a buffer zone or a minimum
distance that they are willing to travel to commit an
offence. Overall, Canter and Larkins work is
important because it suggests that serial offending
for a presumably impulsive crime such as rape may
be described in terms of systematic geographic
relationships, and that the majority of offenders areadequately characterised by the marauder model.
A limited number of follow-up studies have found
additional support for the circle theory of environ-
mental range with other types of offenders.
Lundrigan and Canter (2001) analysed the body
disposal sites selected by 126 U.S. and 29 British
serial killers convicted since 1960. They found that
the offenders lived within the criminal range circle in
89% and 86% of the American and British cases,
respectively. Kocsis and Irwin (1997) studied serial
rapists, arsonists, and burglars in Australia (N24,
22, and 27, respectively). Most offenders in each
group lived in city or metropolitan areas. They foundthat the criminal range circle encompassed all
offending for 79%, 82%, and 80% of each sample,
respectively. The home base was located inside the
criminal range for 71%, 82%, and 48% of cases,
indicating that the marauder model described the
majority of serial rapists and arsonists. Burglars,
however, were equally likely to be marauders or
commuters. This suggests that geographical pattern-
ing might not be the same for all types of offenders,
and so the utility of the circle theory may be limited.
Because this result was based on a relatively small
sample size, Kocsis, Cooksey, Irwin, and Allen
(2002) examined the offences committed by a larger
sample of burglars (N58) in four rural Australian
towns. Similar to the Kocsis and Irwin (1997)
results, only 50% of offence distributions were
consistent with the marauder model. They also
examined a number of potential demographic
correlates (e.g., gender, ethnicity), but found thatnone was reliably associated with marauder versus
commuter offence patterns.
Overall, prior research suggests that the circle
theory of environmental range and the marauder
model in particular may apply to different types of
serial crime, including rape, arson, and murder.
Burglary appears to be different, perhaps because it is
a crime for which the motivation is generally
instrumental (Douglas, Burgess, Burgess, & Ressler,
1992). Nevertheless, the number of studies examin-
ing the predictions of the Canter and Larkin (1993)
model is still relatively small and so its generality may
be limited. Thus, the present study examined the
geographical patterning of fires set by serial arsonists
in New Zealand. This country likely represents a
different profile in terms of environmental and
geographic factors that impinge on offending beha-
viour compared to prior research, which has studied
offenders in primarily urban (Canter & Larkin, 1993;
Kocsis & Irwin, 1997) or rural (Kocsis et al., 2002)
areas. Parks and nature reserves are relatively
common within even urban environments in New
Zealand, offering many potential targets for arso-
nists. Moreover, the present sample was nationwide
and thus more heterogeneous in terms of a mixtureof urban and rural environments. Finally, in addition
to testing the predictions of the circle theory of
environmental range and the marauder model, we
were also interested to determine whether there were
any reliable correlates with marauder versus com-
muter offending patterns.
Method
Data sample
Official records of all arsonists convicted between
January 1988 and June 2003 were obtained from theNew Zealand Police and Fire Service. We selected
the 45 most recent serial arson offenders for
inclusion in the study. Participants were required to
be 14 years or older at the time of their first arson
offence. In addition, each offender must have
committed a minimum of three arson offences, and
had no regular prior contact with the targets before
committing the offence. The offenders had to reside
at a fixed home base for at least a minimum of two
arson offences. Eight offenders who were identified
as having no fixed home base were excluded from the
Serial arsonists 221
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study. After the maps had been constructed, we
discovered that one offender had been acting as a
hired torch for another person who had selected
the targets. This offender was excluded from the
study, leaving a final sample size of 44.
All participants were required to have committed
their multiple arson offences within the specified
international criteria that define serial offences(Douglas et al., 1992). That is, the offender must
have committed at least three arsons, successive
offences had to have been committed on separate
days (24-hr time frame), and no more than 52 weeks
apart. The first wave of serial offences at their first
home base was used for the study. If an offender
committed multiple offences before and after 2 years
in prison, then the first phase of serial offences was
used for that offender. Serial offending was deter-
mined by the offence dates and times as identified on
offenders records. If the offender had committed
spree (i.e., multiple fires, different locations, within a
24-hr time frame) or mass (i.e., multiple fires,
same location, within a 24-hr time frame) offences
on a particular day, the first offence was identi-
fied and used for the study, with the remaining
offences excluded from the study. The majority
of the offenders in this sample (72%) were serial-
only offenders. The offenders address at the time
of the arsons was recorded, as well as each offence
site.
Once the sample had been identified, contact was
made with various police stations in order to access
file information for the offenders. The police files
supplied information such as the gender, ethnicity,age, police districts where the serial arsons had been
committed, arson charges, sentences imposed, occu-
pation, previous criminal convictions, marital status,
accomplices involved, total number of arsons, other
offences, and the type of arsons committed.
When the home base and all offence locations had
been identified by street address for the sample, the
New Zealand Fire Services computerised geo-
graphic information system was used to construct
the maps. For each offender, home base and offence
sites were located in terms of gridpoint coordinates.
Once the point coordinates were encoded, straight-
line distances from the home base to each offencewere computed and later converted into travelling
kilometres.
Procedure
For each offender, a map was printed on an A3-sized
sheet, with home base and offence site locations
marked. In some cases (such as walkways in wildlife
reserves) the site locations were plotted at the
midpoint of the target pathway or street. The
criminal range was then determined according to
the Canter and Larkin (1993) method by measuring
the distance in millimetres between the two furthest
offence sites using a standard ruler. A circle was
drawn using this distance as the diameter. Next, we
assessed how many offence sites for each offender
were contained within the proposed criminal range
circle, and whether the home base was located within
the circle. Cases where the home base or offence sitesfell on the circumference of the criminal range were
counted as being within the circle. If the home base
fell within the circle the offender was classified as
a marauder; otherwise they were designated a
commuter.
The Canter and Larkin (1993) home range
hypothesis was tested using the group of offenders
classified as marauders. This required obtaining the
distance between the two furthest offence sites (X)
and the distance between the home base and the
offence site furthest from the home base (Y) for each
marauder. Distances were measured as straight lines
in millimetres and converted to kilometres. The
home base to furthest offence site distances were
then regressed on the distances between the two
furthest offence sites.
All statistical tests used the .05 significance level.
Results
Of the 44 arsonists in the sample, 39 (89%) were
male and five (11%) were female. Thirty-eight (86%)
were Caucasian ethnicity and six (14%) were Maori.
The average age at the time of apprehension was 25
years (range: 14 52 years; SD9.10). The 44arsonists committed a cumulative total of 214 arson
offences, with the mean arson series analysed
comprising 4.86 offences (range: 3 14; SD2.91).
Offences were committed in police districts across
New Zealand. Twelve arsonists committed their
offences in Wellington, 10 in Christchurch, five in
Central (Taumarunui, New Plymouth, Palmerston
North), three in North Shore (Waitakere), Auckland
City, Waikato, Eastern (Hastings, Gisborne), two
in Counties Manukau, and one each in Northern
(Whangarei), Bay of Plenty, Tasman (Nelson,
Blenheim), and Southern (Dunedin, Invercargill).
One offender committed arsons in the police districtsof both Auckland City and Waikato. The district
with the most offenders was Wellington (n12).
First, we tested the circle theory of environmental
range by determining the number of offenders for
which all offence sites were contained in the criminal
range. The criminal range encompassed all offence
sites in 37 of 44 cases. This percentage (84%) is
similar to that obtained in previous studies and
provides additional evidence that the Canter and
Larkin (1993) assumption that criminal range can be
described in terms of a circle is valid.
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Next we determined the number of cases for which
the home base fell within the criminal range. Visual
inspection of the maps indicated that the offenders
home base fell within the criminal range in 22 out of
44 cases (50%). This percentage is smaller than
those previously reported by Canter and Larkin
(1993) and Kocsis and Irwin (1997), and indicates
that offenders choice of arson locations were equallylikely to be described in terms of the marauder and
the commuter models.
The Canter and Larkin (1993) home range
hypothesis was tested using results from those
offenders who were classified as marauders. The
first prediction of the home range hypothesis is that
the distance between the offenders home base and
the furthest offence (Y) has a strong positive
correlation with the distance between the two
furthest offences (X). Figure 3 shows a scatterplot
of the distances between the home base and
the furthest offence, and the distance between
the two furthest offences. The correlation was
r0.99, p5 .001, consistent with the home range
hypothesis.
The second prediction was that the regression
equation for X and Y will have a slope between 0.50
and 1.00. A slope near 0.50 indicates that the home
base tends to lie near the centre of the criminal
range, whereas slopes near 1.0 mean that the home
base tends to be close to the circumference. The
regression equation was Y0.35 0.93X. This
indicates that the home range generally lies within
the criminal range circle, but suggests that it is not
close to the centre but tends to be eccentricallyplaced near the circumference of the circle, similar to
the Canter and Larkin (1993) results.
Visual inspection of Figure 3 indicates that there
are three outliers that might have an undue influence
on the regression parameters. Thus, we repeated the
analysis with these points removed. The resulting
regression equation was Y0.040.79 X. Although
there was some decrease in the slope, it still indicates
that the home base tended to be nearer the
circumference than the centre of the circle.We also examined whether there was evidence for
a safety area or buffer zone around the home base.
Existence of a safety area would be suggested by a
constant term in the regression that is positive but
less than the average minimum distance of offence
sites from the home base. The average minimum
distance of offences from the home base for these
offenders was 0.51 km. The constant terms of
0.35 km and 0.04 km in the regressions reported
above are less than the average minimum offence
distance. This is evidence for a minimum distance
that an arsonist is willing to travel to commit their
offences from their home base. These results are
consistent with the Brantingham and Brantingham
(1981) proposed buffer zone around the marauding
offenders residential base.
Examination of New Zealand Police records
established that the offenders in the study did have
a home base at the time of their offences, and in
every serial episode except one (an offender who
committed arsons in two police districts) their home
address was in the same police district as their
offence locations. Using straight-line distances it was
found that 82% of the offenders set fires within 5 km
of their home address, and 68.5% of offences(pooled across offenders) occurred within 5 km of
the home. The mean travelling distances from the
Figure 3. Scatterplot of the relationship
between distance of the two furthest
offence sites and distance between the
offenders home and furthest offence site.
The line is the best-fitting regression
equation, Y0.35 0.93X.
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home base to the offence sites was 6.63 km, with a
standard deviation of 10.71 km. Across the sample,
the minimum distance travelled was 0.00 km and the
maximum was 66.01 km.
We investigated whether there were any demo-
graphic or offence-related variables that might be
correlated with the commuter versus marauder
offending pattern. However, the two offender groupsdid not differ significantly on any of the variables. For
marauders and commuters, respectively, the average
age (in years) was 26.32 and 23.68, t(42)0.96, n.s.;
the average sentence imposed (months of imprison-
ment) was 20.23 and 20.00, t(42)0.03, n.s.; the
average number of arsons committed in the serial
episode was 5.36 and 4.36, t(42) 1.14, n.s.; and the
average number of total convictions in their criminal
history (i.e., including crimes other than arson) was
25.95 and 43.91, t(42) 1.15, n.s. Marauders and
commuters were equally likely to be male (91% vs.
86%, respectively, w20.23, n.s.), to be Caucasian
rather than Maori ethnicity (82% vs. 91%, w20.77,
n.s.), to be single rather than married or in a de facto
relationship (91% vs. 77%, w20.89, n.s.), to have
committed their offences alone rather than with an
accomplice (41% vs. 59%, w21.45, n.s.), and to
have set fires to vegetation and bush rather than to
man-made structures and objects (e.g., schools,
houses, vacant buildings, rubbish bins, etc; 36% vs.
32%, w20.10, n.s.).
Finally, we examined whether the population of
the community in which the offender lived, differed
for marauder- versus commuter-type offenders. The
home bases represented a wider range of urban andrural locations than previous studies, and it is
possible that the failure to find a predominant
marauder pattern might depend on this variation.
Population data were obtained from the 2001 census
(Statistics New Zealand, 2001). However, the
correlation between marauder versus commuter
and population was not significant, Spearmans
r0.21, n.s. Thus, we could find no demographic
or offence-related variable that was correlated with
the marauder versus commuter pattern.
Discussion
The present study tested whether the circle theory of
environmental range proposed by Canter and Larkin
(1993) was applicable to serial arsonists in New
Zealand. In particular, we were interested to
determine whether the marauder model, according
to which offenders move away from a fixed home
base to commit their crimes, adequately charac-
terised the majority of crime sites of arsonists, as it
has for every type of serial offender except burglars in
prior studies (Canter & Larkin, 1993; Kocsis &
Irwin, 1997; Kocsis et al., 2002; Lundrigan &
Canter, 2001). We found that circles with a diameter
determined by a straight line between the two
furthest offence sites contained all offences in 84%
of cases. This is comparable to the percentages
reported previously (91% for rapists, Canter &
Larkin, 1993; 79%, 82%, and 70% for rapists,
arsonists, and burglars, Kocsis & Irwin, 1997; and
71% for burglars, Kocsis et al., 2002). Thus, ourdata provide further support for the generality of the
circle theory and its assumption that serial offenders
tend to commit crimes within a well-defined
geographic area.
Offenders were classified as marauders or com-
muters depending on whether the home base fell
within the criminal circle. Contrary to previous
research (Kocsis & Irwin, 1997), offenders were
equally likely to fit the marauder and the commuter
patterns. This result represents the first failure to find
a dominant marauder pattern with serial offenders
other than burglars. It suggests that the utility of the
Canter and Larkin (1993) circle theory and mar-
auder model for geographical profiling may be
limited. In our study, knowing the criminal range
provided no additional information in terms of
predicting the offenders home base.
Canter and Larkin (1993) further specified a home
range hypothesis for those offenders whose crime
sites were consistent with the marauder model. Their
approach involves regressing the distance between
the home base and the furthest offence on the
distance between the two furthest offences. The
slope is interpreted as where the home base is
typically situated relative to the circle, with valuesnear 0.50 indicating a home base near the centre and
values approaching 1.0 suggesting that the home
base is eccentrically placed near the circumference.
Our slope was 0.93, which suggests that the home
base was usually near the circumference. This value
is higher than that obtained in previous studies (0.84
for Canter & Larkin, 1993; 0.77, 0.60, and 0.65 by
Kocsis & Irwin for rapists, arsonists, and burglars,
respectively; and 0.85 by Kocsis et al., 2002),
although when three potential outliers were removed
the slope decreased to 0.79. Whether or not these
outliers are included, the results suggest that for
those offenders consistent with the marauder pat-tern, the criminal range circle provides relatively little
information in terms of predicting the location of the
home base. Given that our sample was equally
divided between marauders and commuters to begin
with, the predictive power of the Canter and Larkin
(1993) model for the present data is clearly limited.
One difference between the current study and
prior research is that our sample was obtained across
a wider geographical range (from Whangarei in the
far north of New Zealand to Invercargill in the deep
south) and there was greater variability in terms of
224 M. J. Edwards & R. C. Grace
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offenders residing in urban versus rural areas. Thus,
one possible reason for our failure to find a
consistent geographical pattern in offence site loca-
tions was the hetereogeneity of the New Zealand
environment. From the perspective of environmental
psychology (Stokols, 1995), one would expect that
increased variability across a sample in terms of
population density and features of the natural andman-made landscape would increase the variability
of behaviour.
Presumably there are some factors that influence
whether a serial offenders choice of crime locations
is consistent with a marauder or commuter pattern.
Yet we could find no demographic or offence-related
variable that reliably differentiated between marau-
ders and commuters in our study. However, it is
possible that the failure to find any significant
correlates of geographical patterning may have been
due to a lack of statistical power.
Brantingham and Brantingham (1981) proposed
the existence of a safety zone around the offenders
home base; that is, a minimum distance that he or
she was willing to travel before committing an
offence. Similar to previous studies, we found that
the average minimum distance travelled by the
marauder-type offenders was larger than the inter-
cept in the regression analysis to test the home-
range hypothesis. This suggests that arsonists prefer
to move away from their home base before setting a
fire.
Although we found evidence for a safety zone,
previous research on criminal mobility has shown
that criminals do not travel very far (e.g., just a fewkilometres) from their home base to commit their
offences. A study of arsonists in England by Fritzon
(2001) found that the mean distance travelled from
home to an offence site was 2.06 km. We found that
the average distance travelled was 6.63 km, suggest-
ing that arsonists in New Zealand travelled relatively
longer distances when offending. However, 68.5% of
all the offences occurred within 5 km of the
offenders home base. Thus, the majority of fires
were still started near the offenders home base.
One limitation of the study should be acknowl-
edged. The practice in New Zealand for arson files
held by police is that they are destroyed after 5 yearsif the damage to property or target were less then
$20,000. However, for arsons in which the targeted
property was valued at more than $20,000, files are
stored in archives. Thus, small-time arsonists could
have been underrepresented in this study, because
the available police files would have dated back to
only 1999. Thus our results may be applicable only
to arsonists who commit relatively serious offences.
The Canter and Larkin (1993) circle theory is
based on the two furthest offence sites, which are
used to develop the criminal range of a serial
offender. The effectiveness of the circle theory to
establish the offence region might be improved if
other pertinent features are taken into account.
Features such as topographical and geographical
characteristics could be beneficial when constructing
the criminal range. For example, urban structures,
arterial roads, highways, zoning, land use and rapid
transit stations, bus stops, physical and psychologicalboundaries, and natural barriers such as coastlines
may all be useful when determining the offence
region of the serial arsonist.
Overall, our results suggest that the applicability of
the Canter and Larkin circle theory of environmental
range to offending by serial arsonists in New Zealand
may be limited. Although the criminal range circle
encompassed all offences in the large majority of
cases, the circle provided little information in terms
of predicting the offenders home base. Our sample
was equally divided between marauder and commu-
ter patterns. Of course, no single profiling tool such
as the circle theory will prove decisive in all
investigations. For a successful profiling strategy we
must also use other tools such as pattern analysis of
temporal and target selection, crime scene analysis,
and method of operation. Despite our failure to find
evidence that serial arsonists in New Zealand could
be described as predominantly marauders or com-
muters, the circle theory remains a useful framework
for spatial analysis of offending patterns and addi-
tional research should improve its utility for
investigators in Australasia. For example, future
studies could explore potential correlates of spatial
patterning in serial arsonists, including whetherfactors such as expressive and instrumental motiva-
tions might play a role in determining choice of
offence locations and travelling distances to offend
(Fritzon, 2001).
Acknowledgements
We thank Dave Haslett and Mark Chubb for their
help with this study.
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