CRI_JBF_082714_62912

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Enhancing investment decisions

JBF Industries Ltd

Q1FY15 Results Update


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis

of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL

Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL

Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

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Last updated: May, 2013

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias

the grading recommendation of the company.

Disclaimer:

This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd.

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JBF Industries Ltd

Improvement in EBITDA margin may be temporary

Fundamental Grade 2/5 (Moderate fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 2/5 (CMP has downside)

Industry Chemicals

1

August 26, 2014

Fair Value ₹119

CMP ₹136

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

JBF Industries Ltd’s (JBF’s) Q1FY15 consolidated earnings were above CRISIL Research’s

expectations. Consolidated revenues remained flat y-o-y at ₹20.9 bn. EBITDA margin

expanded by 236 bps y-o-y to 9.9% driven by improvement in PET and POY spreads. JBF

reported adjusted PAT of ₹279 mn vs loss of ₹411 mn in Q1FY14 driven by higher EBITDA

margin and lower forex loss (₹49 mn in Q1FY15 vs ₹953 mn in Q1FY14). While PET and

POY spreads were healthy in Q1FY15, they have been declining over the past two months

due to an increase in PTA and MEG prices and also incremental supply (PET) in the global

markets. Also, films’ margins have remained subdued. Based on this, we remain cautious on

JBF’s ability to maintain its margins at the current level going forward. Also, increase in

offtake from the new plants – PET chips in Belgium and films in Bahrain – is a key

monitorable given the oversupply. We maintain the fundamental grade of 2/5.

Consolidated revenues remained flat y-o-y

Domestic revenues declined 2% y-o-y to ₹11.7 bn. PET chips sales increased 7% y-o-y to

₹6.1 bn (volumes up 7%, flat realisations). POY sales declined 11% y-o-y to ₹5.4 bn

(volumes down 14%, realisations up 4%). Scarce availability of PTA impacted POY

production and sales. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat y-o-y in FY15.

International revenues increased 2.3% y-o-y to ₹9.8 bn. PET chips sales declined 6% y-o-y

to ₹6.5 bn (volumes up 5%, realisation down 11% due to competitive pressure). Films sales

were up 27% y-o-y to ₹2.9 bn (volumes up 41%, realisations down 10% due to weak demand

and high competition). International sales are expected to post 27% growth in FY15 driven by

increase in sales from new capacities.

EBITDA margin improved by 236 bps y-o-y but may not be sustainable

Consolidated EBITDA margin improved by 236 bps y-o-y to 9.9% thanks to an improvement

in PET and POY spreads y-o-y driven by lower PTA and MEG prices. Domestic EBITDA

margin expanded by 170 bps y-o-y to 9.5% and overseas EBITDA margin was up 320 bps y-

o-y to 10.6%. However, global PTA prices have increased over the past two months. The

Indian government has also levied an anti-dumping duty on PTA imports, making the raw

material costlier by US$50-60 per tonne. As a result, spreads have declined over the past two

months – domestic PET spreads were down 30% in August over Q1FY15 and POY spreads

dipped 8%. We believe that the increase in raw material prices and supply are likely to weigh

on PET spreads for the rest of the year. Also, films spreads have been subdued due to weak

demand and oversupply in the industry. Hence, we forecast EBITDA margin of 8.2% in FY15.

FY15 earnings estimate raised; maintain fair value of ₹119

We have increased FY15 earnings estimate by 30% to factor in better-than-expected EBITDA

margin in Q1FY15. We maintain FY16 estimates and the discounted cash flow (DCF)-based

fair value of ₹119. At the current market price of ₹136, our valuation grade is 2/5.

KEY FORECAST

(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E

Operating income 71,772 74,551 85,677 96,949 109,363

EBITDA 7,141 6,957 7,120 7,989 11,595

Adj net income 1,948 968 237 822 977

Adj EPS (₹) 27.1 13.3 3.6 12.6 15.0

EPS growth (%) (64.2) (50.8) (72.8) 247.3 18.9

Dividend yield (%) 6.0 1.2 1.4 - -

RoCE (%) 13.9 9.2 6.6 5.2 6.6

RoE (%) 12.9 5.7 1.3 4.3 4.9

PE (x) 5.0 7.9 37.5 10.8 9.1

P/BV (x) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 6.6 9.6 11.0 7.8

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

# Based on abridged financials

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX 7905/26443

NSE/BSE ticker JBFIND

Face value (₹ per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 65.3

Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 8,863/147

Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 68,191/1,127

52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 151/64

Beta 1.2

Free float (%) 42.5%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 110,155

Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 15.6

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

JBF -2% 20% 105% 44%

CNX 500 2% 8% 31% 51%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT

Mohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Kamna Motwani [email protected]

Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor

Fundamentals

Excellent

Fundamentals

Str

on

g

Do

wn

sid

e

Str

on

g

Up

sid

e55.9% 57.1% 57.1% 57.5%

11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 11.6%

9.9% 9.5% 6.5% 6.1%

22.9% 22.4% 25.5% 24.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14

Promoter FII DII Others

mailto:[email protected]





2

Q1FY15 results summary (Consolidated)

(₹ mn) Q1FY15 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)

Net sales 20,890 20,948 20,950 (0.3) (0.3)

Raw materials cost 15,584 16,063 16,621 (3.0) (6.2)

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 74.6% 76.7% 79.3% -209bps -473bps

Employees cost 438 413 367 6.1 19.5

Other expenses 2,790 2,493 2,374 11.9 17.5

EBITDA 2,078 1,978 1,590 5.1 30.7

EBITDA margin 9.9% 9.4% 7.6% 51bps 236bps

Depreciation 649 678 540 (4.3) 20.1

EBIT 1,429 1,299 1,049 10.0 36.2

Finance cost (net) 898 921 643 (2.5) 39.7

Exchange difference and derivative (gain)/loss (net) 49 (129) 953 (137.8) (94.9)

Operating PBT 483 508 (546) (4.9) (188.4)

Extraordinary income/(expense) - 188 - - -

Other Income 7 (42) 47 (116.0) (86)

PBT 490 653 (499) (25.1) (198.1)

Tax 211 182 (89) NM (337.8)

PAT 279 472 (411) (40.9) (167.9)

Adj PAT 279 284 (411) (1.9) (167.9)

Adj PAT margin 1.3% 1.4% -2.0% -2bps 329bps

No of equity shares (mn) 65.3 65.3 72.7

(10.2)

Adj EPS (₹) 4.3 4.4 (5.6) (1.9) (175.6)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Geography-wise revenues

Q1FY15 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 q-o-q y-o-y

India 11,661 12,159 11,872 -4.1% -1.8%

International 9,580 9,183 9,365 4.3% 2.3%

Total 21,240 21,342 21,237 -0.5% 0.0%

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

EBITDA margin improved y-o-y due to better PET spreads PAT margin up y-o-y on higher EBITDA, lower forex loss

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

18,1

08

17

,42

2

21

,04

7

20,9

50

22,4

44

21,3

36

20,9

48

20,8

90

9.5%10.2%

7.2%7.6%

9.2%

7.0%

9.4%9.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Q2

FY

13

Q3

FY

13

Q4

FY

13

Q1

FY

14

Q2

FY

14

Q3

FY

14

Q4

FY

14

Q1

FY

15

(₹ mn)

Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)

494 298 5

-411 -39

402

284 279

2.7%

1.7%

0.0%

-2.0%

-0.2%

0.2%

2.3%

1.3%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Q2

FY

13

Q3

FY

13

Q4

FY

13

Q1

FY

14

Q2

FY

14

Q3

FY

14

Q4

FY

14

Q1

FY

15

(₹ mn)

Adj PAT Adj PAT Margin (RHS)

JBF Industries Ltd

3

India: Prices flat y-o-y for both chips and POY Overseas: Films and chips prices under pressure


India – volume trend Overseas – volume trend


Domestic spreads trend Films spreads trend

Spreads = sale price – raw material cost


80 83 89 8594 91 87 87 93 92 96 103 106 102 97

106

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q2

FY

13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3

FY

14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

('000/MT)

India - Chips India - POY

1,4

00

1,5

00

1,6

00

1,5

00

1,5

00

1,6

00

1,2

50

1,3

00

2,3

00

2,2

00

2,3

00

2,3

00

2,4

00

2,2

50

2,2

00

2,1

00

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4

FY

13

Q1

FY

14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

(US$/MT)

UAE - Chips UAE Films

6455

7466 70

6169 71

54 57 5262

52 5258

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

('000 tonnes)

India - Chips India - POY

68 6574

84 83 87 84 89

18 19 20 17 17 18 20 24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Q

2F

Y1

3

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3

FY

14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

('000 tonnes)

UAE - Chips UAE Films

8.2

6.0

6.1

5.7

8.1

7.0

7.4

8.2

21

.4

15

.0

13

.1

17

.7

19

.8

17

.5

18

.2

19

.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q2

FY

13

Q3

FY

13

Q4

FY

13

Q1

FY

14

Q2

FY

14

Q3

FY

14

Q4

FY

14

Q1

FY

15

(₹/kg)

Chips POY

950

750

950 900 850 800 800 800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Q2

FY

13

Q3

FY

13

Q4

FY

13

Q1

FY

14

Q2

FY

14

Q3

FY

14

Q4

FY

14

Q1

FY

15

(US$/tonne)

Films


4

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-11

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

r-12

Ma

y-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Oc

t-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

JBF CNX 500

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

No

v-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Ju

l-10

Oct-

10

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Ju

l-12

Oct-

12

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

('000)(₹ )

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value JBF

JBF Industries Ltd

5

Earnings Estimates Revised Upwards

Particulars Unit

FY15E FY16E

Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (₹ mn) 96,949 96,949 0.0% 109,363 109,363 0.0%

EBITDA (₹ mn) 7,796 7,989 2% 11,595 11,595 0%

EBITDA margin % 8.0 8.2 20bps 10.6 10.6 0bps

PAT (₹ mn) 629 822 30.7% 965 977 1.3%

PAT margin % 0.6 0.8 20bps 0.9 0.9 1bps

EPS ₹ 9.6 12.6 30.7% 14.8 15.0 1.3%

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item FY15E FY16E

Revenues Maintained

EBITDA margins Increased due to better-than-expected EBITDA margin in

Q1FY15 Maintained

PAT margins Increased due to increase in EBITDA margin estimate Maintained


6

Valuation Grade: 2/5

The DCF-based fair value is maintained at ₹119 per share. This fair value implies P/E

multiples of 9.5x FY15E and 8.0x FY16E EPS. At the current market price of ₹136, the

valuation grade is 2/5.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

De

c-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

(₹)

JBF 5x 7x 9x 11x 13x

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-11

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

De

c-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Au

g-1

4

(₹ mn)

EV 3x 4x 5x 6x

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ja

n-1

1

Mar-

11

May

-11

Ju

l-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Dec-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Nov-1

2

Feb-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Jun-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

Premium/Discount to CNX 500

Median premium/discount to CNX 500

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-1

1

Mar-

11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Oc

t-1

1

Dec

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-1

2

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Jun-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Nov

-13

Jan-1

4

Mar-

14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

Maintain fair value of ₹119

JBF Industries Ltd

7

CRISIL IER reports released on JBF Industries Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

26-Nov-09 Initiating coverage 3/5 ₹119 4/5 ₹95

05-Feb-10 Q3FY10 result update 3/5 ₹129 4/5 ₹111

16-Jun-10 Q4FY10 result update 3/5 ₹154 3/5 ₹139

01-Sep-10 Q1FY11 result update 3/5 ₹203 5/5 ₹145

17-Nov-10 Q2FY11 result update 3/5 ₹232 4/5 ₹192

15-Mar-11 Q3FY11 result update 3/5 ₹259 5/5 ₹170

11-Jul-11 Detailed report 3/5 ₹229 5/5 ₹164

09-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 ₹229 5/5 ₹138



08-Jun-12 Q4FY12 result update 3/5 ₹194 5/5 ₹119

10-Jul-12 Detailed Report 3/5 ₹194 5/5 ₹135



20-Mar-13 Detailed report 2/5 ₹168 5/5 ₹102

13-June-13 Q4FY13 result update 2/5 ₹154 5/5 ₹102

17-Sept-13 Q1FY14 result update 2/5 ₹139 5/5 ₹98

12-Dec-13 Q2FY14 result update 2/5 ₹126 5/5 ₹76


08-Jul-14 Detailed report 2/5 ₹119 2/5 ₹145



8

Annexure: Financials (Consolidated)

# Based on abridged financials

Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet

(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E

Operating income 71,772 74,551 85,677 96,949 109,363 Liabilities

EBITDA 7,141 6,957 7,120 7,989 11,595 Equity share capital 720 726 653 653 653

EBITDA margin 10.0% 9.3% 8.3% 8.2% 10.6% Reserves 15,340 16,873 18,045 18,867 19,844

Depreciation 1,784 2,167 2,451 3,162 4,667 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 5,357 4,790 4,669 4,828 6,928 Net worth 16,060 17,600 18,698 19,520 20,497

Interest 4,860 3,874 4,700 4,301 6,118 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 497 916 (31) 527 810 Other debt 28,774 41,936 64,199 83,199 85,799

Other income 1,246 422 410 438 317 Total debt 28,774 41,936 64,199 83,199 85,799

Exceptional inc/(exp)* 281 167 (179) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 1,223 1,581 1,773 1,773 1,773

PBT 2,024 1,505 200 965 1,127 Total liabilities 46,058 61,116 84,670 104,492 108,069

Tax provision (205) 371 143 143 150 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 27,607 32,141 37,939 50,269 84,843

PAT (Reported) 2,229 1,135 57 822 977 Capital WIP 3,814 10,597 29,433 37,024 2,086

Less: Exceptionals 281 167 (179) - - Total fixed assets 31,420 42,737 67,372 87,292 86,928

Adjusted PAT 1,948 968 237 822 977 Investments 1,877 3,762 33 33 33

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 7,918 9,231 10,440 11,953 13,183

FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E Sundry debtors 7,617 10,803 11,507 12,404 13,937

Growth Loans and advances 3,900 5,554 6,558 7,756 8,749

Operating income (%) 11.0 3.9 14.9 13.2 12.8 Cash & bank balance 3,616 3,462 4,870 3,994 4,569

EBITDA (%) (25.8) (2.6) 2.3 12.2 45.1 Marketable securities - - - - -

Adj PAT (%) (64.0) (50.3) (75.5) 247.3 18.9 Total current assets 23,051 29,049 33,375 36,107 40,438

Adj EPS (%) (64.2) (50.8) (72.8) 247.3 18.9 Total current liabilities 11,314 15,537 17,157 19,987 20,377

Net current assets 11,737 13,512 16,217 16,119 20,060

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 1,025 1,105 1,048 1,048 1,048

EBITDA margin (%) 10.0 9.3 8.3 8.2 10.6 Total assets 46,058 61,116 84,670 104,492 108,069

Adj PAT Margin (%) 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.9

RoE (%) 12.9 5.7 1.3 4.3 4.9 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 13.9 9.2 6.6 5.2 6.6 (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E

RoIC (%) 23.7 11.5 8.2 6.3 7.4 Pre-tax profit 1,744 1,338 379 965 1,127

Total tax paid (2) (13) 49 (143) (150)

Valuations Depreciation 1,784 2,167 2,451 3,162 4,667

Price-earnings (x) 5.0 7.9 37.5 10.8 9.1 Working capital changes (2,681) (1,929) (1,296) (778) (3,367)

Price-book (x) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 Net cash from operations 845 1,563 1,583 3,205 2,277

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.9 6.6 9.6 11.0 7.8 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 Capital expenditure (9,523) (13,564) (27,029) (23,081) (4,303)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 26.2 8.4 227.6 - - Investments and others (597) (1,886) 3,730 - -

Dividend yield (%) 6.0 1.2 1.5 - - Net cash from investments (10,121) (15,450) (23,300) (23,081) (4,303)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 36 60 (730) - -

Inventory days 46 52 49 49 49 Debt raised/(repaid) 10,672 13,161 22,263 19,000 2,600

Creditors days 57 80 74 77 71 Dividend (incl. tax) (678) (111) (153) - -

Debtor days 37 50 46 45 45 Others (incl extraordinaries) 511 623 1,745 - (0)

Working capital days 39 46 46 44 50 Net cash from financing 10,541 13,733 23,125 19,000 2,600

Gross asset turnover (x) 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 Change in cash position 1,265 (154) 1,409 (876) 574

Net asset turnover (x) 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 Closing cash 3,616 3,462 4,870 3,994 4,569

Sales/operating assets (x) 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.3

Current ratio (x) 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0

Debt-equity (x) 1.8 2.4 3.4 4.3 4.2 Quarterly financials

Net debt/equity (x) 1.6 2.2 3.2 4.1 4.0 (₹ mn) Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15

EBITDA/Interest (x) 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.9 Net Sales 20,950 22,444 21,336 20,948 20,890

EBIT/Interest (x) 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 Change (q-o-q) 0% 7% -5% -2% 0%

EBITDA 1,590 2,055 1,497 1,978 2,078

Per share Change (q-o-q) 5% 29% -27% 32% 5%

FY12 FY13 FY14# FY15E FY16E EBITDA margin 8% 9% 7% 9% 10%

Adj EPS (₹ ) 27.1 13.3 3.6 12.6 15.0 PAT (411) (39) 35 472 279

CEPS 51.8 43.2 41.1 61.0 86.4 Adj PAT (411) (39) 402 284 279

Book value 223.0 242.3 286.3 298.8 313.8 Change (q-o-q) NM NM NM -29% -2%

Dividend (₹ ) 8.1 1.3 2.0 - - Adj PAT margin -2% 0% 2% 1% 1.3%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 72.0 72.6 65.3 65.3 65.3 Adj EPS (5.7) (0.6) 6.2 4.4 4.3

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