Crete, September 2013 GOSEM SS Prof . Panebianco Stefania University of Catania
description
Transcript of Crete, September 2013 GOSEM SS Prof . Panebianco Stefania University of Catania
Crete, September 2013
GOSEM SS Prof. Panebianco Stefania
University of Catania
The Arab Spring: between tradition and technologySidi Bouzid (Tunisia) , 17 December 2010 upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Siria, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Mauritania.
What is new compared to previous popular mobilization in Arab Countries? There is no ideological nor religious inspiration; Large use of media (esp. cable TV) and technology (mobile
phones, web, blogs); Active involvement of middle classes and educated people.
Protest tools: twitter, facebook, Al Jazeera, Al Arabja …..
Democracy and the Mediterranean: still an ‘Arab exceptionalism’?
The debate of the last decades raised the following questions: Are MENA countries ‘unfit’ to experience democratic change?
Is there anything inherently undemocratic about Islam?The literature: <<the ME had remained untouched by the third wave of
democratization>> (Huntington, 1991); There is an Arab democratic gap (Lewitsky and Way, 2002; Diamond,
2010); Despite the liberalization processes which had occurred in the early
1990s, an authoritarian turn had established liberalized autocracies (O’Donnell & Schmitter, 1986; Brumberg, 2002);
… where does the Arab Spring fit in the debate?
The Arab Spring and democracyCompatibility or compliance to a Western model?
- Democracy as (Western) values
- Democracy as procedures
Can we talk about a
“Muslim Democracy”? Olivier Roy: Secularism, Islam and
the West
The origins of a ‘Muslim Democracy’
Early1990s
Military withdraw from power (es.Turkey)
Development of middle classes and private economic
actors
Establishment of multi-party systems
and electoral competition
A wave of ‘Muslim Democracy’?Popular requests during the Arab Spring
Popular request for
regime change
Support to liberal
practices
Freedoms and human dignity as universal values
Public opinion surveys in Arab Mediterranean countries
‘Westernization’ Democratization
They do NOT want
They DO want
Defining Democracy
Democracy
Norms to provide
legitimacy to political regimes
‘people’s power’
Europe/North
America
Rule of law
Common sense Word’s
definition
Historical origins
Key concept
Rule of law
Rule of law
Free and correct
elections
Respect of fundament
al freedoms
Government accountability
Legal opposition
Towards a widespread democratization process in the Mediterranean?
YES NO
Different indicators need to be identified
Persistence of authoritarian regimes: no contagion effect
Reversed processes (Islamist regimes)
POPULAR PROTESTS
Coetzee: criticism to the
democratic peace theory: the structure
matters
The minimum requirements for democracy (Dahl 1980)
universal suffrage; free, competitive, recurrent and correct
elections; more than one political party; alternative information sources.
Democracy as a process: Liberalization with or without democratization
Liberalization: process of partial opening of authoritarian institutions; generally it starts with the granting of individual freedoms and rights (e.g. reduction of censorship, increased autonomy of socio-economic groups, opposition is tolerated).
Democratization: process of creation and stabilization of democratic institutions which leads to the end of the authoritarian regime. It includes liberalization and moves further to rant political competition and government’s accountability as a result of free and competitive elections.
Hybrid regimes: between authoritarianism and democracy
HYBRID REGIMES
TRADITIONAL REGIMES
AUTHORITARIANISM LIBERAL DEMOCRACY
Possible Outcomes of the Arab Spring
Democratic change
No political change
Authoritarian turn
Persistent instability
Freedom in the World 2012
25
POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SINCE SPRING 2011
2013: Civil Liberties/Political Rights
Status 2011: Civil Liberties-Political Rights
Status Change
ALGERIA 5,5 (5/6) NF 5,5 (5/6) NF -
EGYPT 5,0 (5/5) PF 5,5 (5/6) NF ISRAEL 1,5 (2/1) F 1,5 (2/1) F -
JORDAN 5,5 (n.a.) NF 5,5 (5/6) NF -*
LEBANON 4,5 (n.a.) PF 4,0 (3/5) PF LIBYA 4,5 (5/4) PF 7 (7/7) NF MOROCCO 4,5 (n.a.) PF 4,5 (4/5) PF -
SYRIA 7,0 (n.a.) NF 6,5 (6/7) NF -
TUNISIA 3,5 (4/3) PF 6 (5/7) PF Source: Freedom House, Country Reports 2013-2011
* Partly free from 2004 to 2009
26
The ‘drivers’ to democracy
Local actors (political élites, civil society, Islamist parties)
International actors as ‘facilitators’ or ‘anchors’ (EU, US, IOs, NGOs)
Actors of political change New/old political élites Military Civil society (e.g. political parties including
Islamist parties) International community: US, EU, regional
powers, international organizations, NGOs)
Teti: A CDA of PfDSP