Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference March 19-21, 2012 · 2012. 3. 19. · (USD/BOE) 489 250...

Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference

Credit Suisse Asian Investment ConferenceConference

March 19-21, 2012Conference

March 19-21, 2012

ContentsOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 OutlookOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Overview

Performance & Roadmap

Investment

2012 Outlook2012 Outlook

1

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Dec 2011 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supplyOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

I t (80%) D ti

SupplySupply ProductionProduction SalesSales

Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 54 KBDImport (80%)

Crude/ Condensate Refined

Domestic848 KBD

Condensate794 KBD Products

919 KBD*Total Refining Capacity in Thailand:

1,099 KBD

Indigenous (20%)

787 KBD (**)Crude/ Condensate 175 KBD PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD Refined

Export207 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

Other Refineries : 194 KBD(ESSO, RPC)

Products189 KBD

Source: PTIT

Crude Export 32 KBD221 KBD

Sou ceRemark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 822 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 97 KBD

(**) Not included InventoryKBD = Thousand Barrels per day

2

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2011Main driver of the Thai economyOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

SupplySupply ProductionProduction SalesSales


Indigenous (78%)3,253 MMSCFD

Petrochemical

Ethane/ Propane/LPG/NGL

Total 4,167 MMSCFD

Feedstock (14%)

IndustryH h ld

2,469 MMSCFD 867 MMSCFD (21%)Chevron28%Others

40%

HouseholdTransportation

(7%)

LPG/NGL

Methane

6 GSPsTotal Capacity 2,665 MMSCFD

PTTEP 32%

Power (59%)Industry (14%)

Pipeline 784 MMSCFD

Methane 1,602 MMSCFDImport (22%)

922 MMSCFD

LNG10%

Myanmar90%

y ( )NGV (6%)

922 MMSCFD

90%

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

3

Our Major Businesses & Activities


E&PE&P PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production

stre

amst

ream

Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding (%)Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

GasGas

Ups

Ups

edia

teed

iate PTT PLC

• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipelineGasGas

Oil M k tiOil M k tiPTT PLC

Inte

rme

Inte

rme • S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas

• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock

Oil MarketingOil Marketing

Int’l TradingInt’l Trading

eam

eam

• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing

• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products

Dow

nstr

eD

owns

tre

Petrochemical Petrochemical & Refining& Refining

PTTGC 48.92% Petrochemical FlagshipTOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

& Refining& Refining SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex RefineryBCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations

ssN

ew

New

Bu

sine

s sBu

sine

ss

InternationalInternational PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT : Coal, New energy and related businesses

4

PTT AspirationStrategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspirationOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”

E d


Expand resources Maximize value along the chain

Big

BigBalance stakeholder excellenceLong

“Top quartile performance”

Long

StrongDrive functional excellence and synergyShare best practice and

Strong

performance”Dow JonesSustainabilityIndexes

Share best practice and knowledge management

5

PTT Group Strategic DirectionInvestment priorities by geography and value chainOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Internationalization

Non- AsiaEuropeNon- AsiaAfrica Non- AsiaAmericasNon- AsiaMiddle East

Australia, N. Asia and S. AsiaASEAN

Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 OutlookG

as

UpstreamUpstream

UpstreamMidstream

Create P&R flagship and

Expand production to 900 kbd

Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain

Support group inv.

UpstreamP&R

Oil

& G

Retail

T di

Create P&R flagship and internationalize chemical business

Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants

Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions

Top oil and gas player

UpstreamCoal

Adj

acen

t in

dust

ry

Trading

rsif

icat

ion

Grow coal mining to large scale

UpstreamPower Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value chain e pansion oppo t nistic coal

Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions

A i E

nerg

y/ia

ls

Div

e

Alt. energy Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN

chain expansion, opportunistic coal

Plantations Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava Energy

conglomerate

sG

reen

m

ater

i

Infrastructure

Build Green business (ASEAN biohub) Bio-business

pp

Strengthen integrated hub Business

Non-oil RetailExplore opportunities in non-fuel retailO

ther

s teg ated ub(e.g. Gr. Marine) Business

conglomerate

Priority 1 Priority 3Priority 2 based on market attractiveness and potential for PTT Group to be distinctive 6


Overview & Highlight

Performance 2011 & Roadmap

Investment


7

Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)


Product PricesProduct Prices Net Income Net Income ((100100%)%)

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem CoalOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

101.7 102.7

73.8

102.2

61 3

Liquid (USD/BBL) 1,468

Unit: MMUSD

1,380

6%

5.91 6.64 5.52 6.00

55.4 61.3 44.8

55.5

G (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg.(USD/BOE)

489250

96%

Sales VolumeSales Volume Key ActivitiesKey Activities

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

250


265 265251

Unit: KBOED

0.2%

265

5%

QoQ• Sales volume dropped from flood (i.e. Arthit

North, Bongkot, MTJDA B-17, Yadana, Yetagun),

86 78

265 265251Liquid

G

265, g , , , g ),

whilst sales price sharply increased from periodic gas price adjustment

• Net Income increased from FX gain on USD debts against stronger CAD currency

165 187

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

Gas

8

g g y

YoY• Avg. selling price increased by 24%• Success ratio in 2011 was 11:25

Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEPOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Target Sales VolumeTarget Sales Volume Proved ReservesProved Reserves


Unit: KBOEDTotal 969 MMBOETotal 969 MMBOE

Overseas

284

330345

326 324

AustraliaMiddle East & AfricaNorth America7%

16%

44%56%

265South East Asia

Australia

Policy

DomesticThailand

Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.10 > 1

Reserve Life Index (year) 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620152011 CF 2012 2013 2014 2016

9

BKT South,Montara

Zawtika Algeria

Gas Business Performance : Natural GasOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

NG Sales VolumeNG Sales Volume Gas BU EBITDAGas BU EBITDA


2011

20103,802

4,0554,152

4,1484,1454,330

4,249

3,919

Unit: MMSCFD AVG.

4,040

4,161

Unit: MMTHB

62,195

32%

2009

2010

3,280 3,6063,677 3,686

,

3,562

47,212

9,88016,83241%

NG Customer NG Customer ProfileProfile Key ActivitiesKey Activities

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

550237246

Industry (13%)NGV (6%)

3% Unit: MMSCFD

4,0404,249 4,161

3,9198%

QoQ• NG sales volume declined in all customers as a

result of flood except sales volume to GSPs

763 866430 486860

867559 550

IPP (21%)

SPP (12%)

GSP (21%)

Industry (13%)increased due to the resumption of ESP & GSP 6

• Higher average gas cost from price adjustment

YoY

1,070 1,146

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

EGAT (27%)

( )

10

YoY• NG sales volume slightly increased due to gas

leakage and flood

Gas Business Performance: GSPs & NGVOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

GSP GSP -- Reference Product Reference Product PricesPrices NGV EBIT LossNGV EBIT Loss


PP HDPE

Unit : USD/Ton

1,399 1,3291,364

1,6061,423

1,340

1,585

Unit : MMTHB

3 164

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

Naphtha

333 333 333 333

869805 660

8531,222

Domestic LPG -7,323

-3,259-3,164

10 556

3%

GSP Sales VolumeGSP Sales Volume Key ActivitiesKey ActivitiesQ3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

-10,55644%

yy

Propane (9%)

Unit : KTon

542

5,820

36% QoQ• GSPs sales volume increased mainly due to the

resumption of GSP 6 and ESPPropane (9%)

NGL (11%)

Ethane (31%)

6471,798

542

1,5001 381

4,289 YoY• GSP volume increased by 36% from COD of ESP

in July 2010, and GSP 6 in Jan 20119%

LPG (49%)

712

2,833167467154

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

,1,381

11

y ,• NGV price increased by 0.50 Baht/Kg a month

starting from Jan 16, 2012

Gas Business RoadmapOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

6,000

Unit : MMSCFD


4,000GSP

IndustryNGV

21%

13%

7%

6%18%

16%7%

0

2,000 Power- EGAT- IPP- SPP

60%

21%

59%

New Supply

PTTEP (Bongkot

PTTLNG PTTEP(M9)Chevron

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PipelineCapacity

Supply South)

4th Onshore Offshore

Compressor

Chevron(Plathong)

Capacity(MMSCFD) 4,380

GSP

5,580 6,980 6,980Compressor

6,980

GSP#6

6,980

GSPCapacity

(MTA)6.7 6.7 6.7 6.76.7

GSP#6

6.7

12

Oil Business Performance : PTTOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Contribution Margin* Contribution Margin* Oil BU Oil BU -- EBITDAEBITDA


11,973

Unit : MMTHB

0 730.77 0 75

Unit : THB/Liter9%

12,12613,224

Oil

0.72 0.73 0.75 11%

3,236 2,874

291 1,251 2,583

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

Non-OilQ3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

* Exclude non–oil business


Unit : MM Liter 5%QoQ• Sales volume returned to normal in Q4 after more

5 590 5 536

20,762 21,807 FO import in Q3 to compensate gas leakage

YoY• Sales volume increased due to the increase in

2%

5,590 5,536

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 13

domestic demand and fuel oil demand during gas leakage

• PTT stations 1,326 (+6 stations from Q3)• Café Amazon 634 branches (+29 branches)

International Trading Business Performance : PTTOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Contribution MarginContribution Margin Trading BU Trading BU -- EBITDA*EBITDA*


2,188 2,209

Unit : MMTHB

0.04 0.04 0.04

Unit :THB/Liter1%

612283

0.03

54%

283

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011* PTT Only

Sales VolumeSales Volume Key ActivitiesKey ActivitiesUnit : MM Liter

y

QoQ• Lower sales volume from the turnaround of

2%

16 098 13 736

60,256 59,145

15%

Lower sales volume from the turnaround of IRPC

• Contribution margin slightly decreased due to the decrease in condensate margin

16,098 13,736

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 14

YoY• Lower sales volume, specially crude volume,

due to schedule shutdown of affiliate refineries

Refining Business PerformanceOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

GRM/GIMGRM/GIM Net Income (Net Income (100100%)%)


23,414

32,455

Unit : MMTHB 39%

BCP

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

6.875.90

7.379.40

6.08 A/C GRM

A/C GIM

3,935 1,396

65%

IRPCSPRC

TOP

4.66

3.40 3.81

4.53

3.25

3.854.82 Mkt GRM

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Source : PTT, Refining AssociatesNote: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC)

Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC)Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

93% 85% 90% 89% 100%900

1000

Total IntakeTotal Intake Key ActivitiesKey ActivitiesUnit : KBD

AggregatedUtil

QoQ• Market GRM decreased following European debt

0%

50%

400

500

600

700

800 652 686 684704

BCP

SPRC

Util. crisis• For Aromatics, PX spread margin dropped due to the

resumption of PX plants

YoY

IRPC

‐50%

0%

0

100

200

300

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

SPRC

TOP

15

YoY• Market GRM improved from higher demand due to

global economy recovered• Higher stock gain due to crude oil price surged

Refining Business RoadmapOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PTT 49 10% PX & BZ Upgrading HCU Revamp Benzene Power Plant Power Plant


PTT 49.10%

Refining Cap. 275 KbpdPX 489 KTAMX 90 KTA

PX & BZ Upgrading • PX 100 KTA• BZ 100 KTAEthanol UBE400 KLiter/day

HCU RevampPhase I & IIPSA & HVU revamp

Benzene Derivatives• LAB 100 KTA

Power Plant 110 MW

Power Plant 110 MW

BZ 177 KTATol 144 KTA

PTT 38.51%

Refining Cap. 215 KbpdA ti 367 KTA

Propylene Booster • Propylene

100 KTA

ABS/SAN Expansion• ABS/SAN

PP Compound and Specialties100 KTA

Propylene 320 KTA

Aromatic 367 KTAOlefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA

100 KTA • ABS/SAN 61 KTA

100 KTA

PTT 27 22% Solar Power Plant Tail Gas Treating Solar Power Plant ContinuousPTT 27.22%

Bangchak

Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd

Solar Power Plant Ph I38 MW

Solar Power Plant Ph II

Tail Gas Treating Unit

Solar Power Plant Ph III 48 MW

Continuous Catalytic Reforming Unit(CCR) 12 KBD

Cogeneration P Pl tPh II

32 MW

Ethanol UBE400 KLiter/day

Power Plant 15 MW

Palm Plantation 3,300 Rais

Expansion project16

Petrochemical Business PerformanceOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Spread MarginsSpread Margins Net Income (Net Income (100100%)%)


638 647

Unit : MMTHBUnit : USD/Ton

37,086

PTT Phenol

71%

HMC PolymersOthers

21 731

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha

7% 13%

13%

93%

462 429511

443

554

335

PTT Phenol

PTTGC

47%21,731

8,3254,449

7% 13%

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011 Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011


Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011Note : PTTGC- Pro-forma income statement.

89% 88% 90% 86%

Unit : KTon

23%

QoQ• Sales volume and average selling price dropped from

lower demand following China’s tight monetary policyAggregated

Util.

HMC Polymers

1,2641,550 YoY

• Sales volume increased from the commercial operations of

• PTTGC’s Ethane Cracker 1 MTA in Dec 201012%

Q3/11* Q4/11* 2010 2011PTTGC

HMC PolymersPTT Phenol 222 196

17

• PTTGC’s HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 300 KTA in Q1/11• PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11• HMC Polymers’s PP/PDH 300/310 KTA in Q3/10

and Q1/11, respectively* PTTGC sales volume not available due to the merger of PTTCH & PTTAR during the period

Petrochemical Business RoadmapOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


PTT 48.92%

Refining 280 KTAOlefins 2,888 KTAA ti 2 259 KTA

NatureWorks 50%PLA 70 KTA

Aromatics 2,259 KTAPolymers 1,590 KTASpecialty 826 KTA

Perstorp 51%TDI 125 KTAHDI 45 KTA

PTT 40.00%PTT 40.00%

Phenol 200 KTAAcetone 125 KTABPA 150 KTA

Phenol 250 KTAAcetone 154 KTA

PTT 41.44%

PP 750 KTAPropylene 310 KTA

PTT 48 50%PTT 48.50%

AN 200 KTAMMA 70 KTA

PTT 50 00%PTT 50.00%

PBS 20 KTA

18

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.4%)


Average SAR Selling PriceAverage SAR Selling Price Net Income (Net Income (100100%)%)


Unit : MMUSD 116%

100

Unit : USD/Ton

190

94

100

73

93

3773 8897%

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011


Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

yy

Unit : KTon

10 726

QoQ• Started production at Northern Lease, Sebuku• Higher average selling price from higher quality coal

from Northern Lease0.1%

2 494 3,077

10,726

Jembayan

Sebuku10,712

23%

from Northern Lease

YoY• Sales volume maintained at same level as previous

year, despite a collapse of the Kutai Kartenegara

Q3/11 Q4/11 2010 2011

2,494 ,

19

gbridge that obstructed the coal transportation

• Increased in average selling price following global coal price surged

Coal Mining RoadmapOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Target Production VolumeTarget Production Volume Resources & ReservesResources & Reserves


Unit : MMTon

14 0 2%

SebukuReserves 146 MMTon

12.0

14.0

Sebuku

2%

98%

8.59.0

10.7 10.7

98%

Jembayan

JembayanJembayan

Resources 1,505 MMTon

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E 2013 E60%

40%

20

60%

Sebuku

20

PTT Consolidated Performance : 2011Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

78106

4%Others

PTTEP

Dubai (USD/BBL)


Unit : MMTHB 28%

1,898,6822,428,165

16%

6%4%

PTT - Gas

Revenue

2010 2011

74%

PTT - Oil & Trading

Others

Revenue

170,330210,748

24%

56%30%

8%6%PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT GPTTEP

EBITDA

2010 201125%

30%PTT - Gas

Others

EBITDA

83,992 105,296

25%

45%17%

13%‐4%

PTT

PetChem

Refining

Net IncomeNet Income

2010 201129.58 36.91 29%

PetChem

PTTEP21

co eNet Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and SecuredOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Unit: MMTHB Increased assets :• GSP#6 Strong Financial Position


11.2 12.1

• GSP#6• PTTLNG• WIP of 4th pipeline• Platform compression• 40% KKD Oil Sands

ICR

Strong Financial Position

116,132

366 060Other 1,229,109

1,402,41214%

Treasury policy

0.4 0.4 1.4 1.3

2010 2011228,132

265,025 135,801

392 403

300,666

366,060 Liabilities

OtherCurrentAssets

L/TLiabilities

Cash & S/T Invest

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0

2010 2011368,515

419,914 371,029

392,403 Others

Non-currentAssets

(incl. due within 1 yr)

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

496,661 601,341 557,414 643,949

PP&E

TotalEquity

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec10 31 Dec 11

22

Dividend Policy & Historical PaymentsPTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net incomeOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

EPS DPS % Dividend Payout


25% 25%

32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 35.2%

EPS DPS % Dividend Payout

30.5734.14 34.82

29.58

36.9125% 25%PTT’s minimum payout ratioPTT’s minimum payout ratio

22.4018.33

21.06UNIT : Baht / shareUNIT : Baht / share

7.71 8.7513.43

2 50 2 85 4.006.75

9.25 10.50 11.508.00 8.50 10.25

13.00

2.50 2.85

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

23

ContentsOverview & Highlight Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 OutlookOverview & Highlight Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook



Investment


24

PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries)PTT plans to invest ~Bt 358 bn ($12bn) during 2012-2016Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Unit: MMTHBCAPEX B kd 5 Y


R&DJV & Investment in SubsidiariesOil & Trading

CAPEX Breakdown : 5 YearsBy Business Unit

Gas 33%Coal 2%

Power 2% LNG 5%

gGas

85,48491,467

JV & Others 41%

32 383

,81,513

61,148

JV & Investment in Subsidiaries

50%

Oil & Trading 14%R&D 3%

55,49241,279 32,383

26,880 38,384

27,163 31,831 35,812

16,6537,611

23,134

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

25

PTT Group CAPEX 2012 – 2016 ~ THB 900 BN*Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 OutlookOverview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

P&R**R & D

• Biochemical• Specialty

Upstream – E&P41%

Other opportunities

P&R**16%

2%• Thailand 54%• SE Asia 22%• North America 15%• Australasia 5%

• Coal• Palm Oil 41%

GasOil&Trading

opportunities19%

Australasia 5%• ME & Africa 4%• FLNG

• Power

Gas16%

6%

LPG facilities

• Onshore Pipeline• LNG Terminal• NGV Stations

* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives

• NGV Stations• Offshore Spur Lines

26




Investment


27

Economic Outlook : 2012Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2012 Outlook

Positive Negative


• Fed planned to keep interest rate exceptional low until late 2014

• Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz will cause supply disruption and crude oil price surged

Global • US economic data indicates upward momentum

surged

• Greece debt may prolong and tend to be more severe possibly leading to contagion among EU community

fl d i l d i

Thailand

• Post-flood construction lead to increasing in domestic consumption and investment

• Concern on repeating great flood

• Argument on ConstitutionThailand• More stability of the

government

Argument on Constitution amendment

28

Market Outlook


• Global oil demand in 2012 is


Global oil demand in 2012 is forecasted to grow 1.0 MMBPD, reaching 90.0 MMBPD, according to IEA’s report in January 2012.

• Dubai crude oil price in 2012 is expected to be aroundUS$ 100 -110 per barrel.

Supply disruption from Iran’s reaction to the sanction

US economic data indicates upward momentum

An increase in oil supply from the exporting countries

The fragile European economic situation

Source: IEA

29

Source: IEA

Market Outlook


Si GRM i 2012 i ti t d t


• Singapore GRM in 2012 is estimated to be at around US$ 6-7 per barrel

– A result of narrowed refining capacity surplus

– Lower global petroleum products demand caused by economic slowdown.

• Olefins price is on a declining trend• Olefins price is on a declining trend

– Restocking after Chinese new year and annual schedule shutdown

O l d l t h i l d tUSD/Ton USD/Ton

– Oversupply and lower petrochemical products demand caused by economic slowdown

• Aromatics price tends to be improved p p

– PX demand remains strong from the delay of new PX supply

– The start up of new PTA plantsp p

– Lower demand caused by economic slowdown

30Source : DB, KBD, Reuters, FACTS, IEA (Jan’11), Thaioil, OIM and PIM

Thank youThank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIRp // p p , p // /

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such

DisclaimerDisclaimer

information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.

2011 Highlights

EconomyEconomy

• European Financial turmoil leading to credit rating downgrade in Italy, Spain, and other 7 European countries

• Exceptionally low Fed rate at 0 – 0.25%; however, improvement of employment rate and CPIExceptionally low Fed rate at 0 0.25%; however, improvement of employment rate and CPI shown

• Lower Chinese demand from tight monetary policy, however, increasingly gloomy global outlook and slower growth forced China to start easing monetary policy in December

• NESDB estimated that devastating flood led to contracting Thai economy by 9.0% in Q4/2011 and FY 2011 growth only at 0.1%

OperationsOperations

• Flood caused NG sales volume to decrease by 7.7% QoQ, while only 1% effect in oil business

• Yetagun closed to install compressor platform lead to lower NGV supply

• Gradually increasing NGV retail price structure implemented since January 16, 2012

ESP d ti f t h td i Q3/2011

32

• ESP resumed operation from warranty shutdown in Q3/2011

• Improvement of coal sales volume from 2.5 to 3.1 MTon in Q4/2011

PTT Group Performance : 2011

% share

Unit : MMTHB 2010 2011 YoY 2010 2011 YoY

PTT Company Only 54,457 73,434 35% 54,457 73,434 35%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

Less: Dividend Received 18,316 24,275 33% 18,316 24,275 33%

Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting 1,913 n.m. 1,913 n.m.

PTT Net operating Income 36,141 47,246 31% 36,141 47,246 31%

E&P PTTEP 43 774 44 748 2% 65 29% 28 722 30 558 6%E&P - PTTEP 43,774 44,748 2% 65.29% 28,722 30,558 6%

Petro. Business 21,731 37,086 71% 10,158 17,753 75%

- PTTGC* 16,320 30,033 84% 48.92% 7,922 14,465 83%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC 5 411 7 053 30% 40-48% 2 236 3 288 47%/ PTTME/PTTTANK 5,411 7,053 30% 40-48% 2,236 3,288 47%

Refining 23,405 32,455 39% 9,377 13,445 43%

- TOP 8,956 14,853 66% 49.10% 4,201 7,514 79%

- IRPC 6,100 4,107 -33% 38.51% 2,250 1,443 -36%

- SPRC 5,553 7,885 42% 36.00% 2,116 2,960 40%

- BCP 2,796 5,610 101% 27.22% 810 1,528 89%

Others Business 1,335 -2,114 n.m. -406 -4,276 n.m.

Inter - PTTI group-2 923 -6 922 -137% 100% -2 922 -6 922 -137%Inter (PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE -2,923 -6,922 -137% 100% -2,922 -6,922 -137%

Gas & Utilities

-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 3,008 2,927 -3% 20-100% 1,783 933 -48%

Oil & Oth. - PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE//PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo 1,250 1,881 50% 33-100% 733 1,713 134%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 90,245 112,175 24% 47,851 57,480 20%

33

Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates 0 570 n.m. 0 570 n.m.

PTT Conso. Net Income 126,386 159,991 27% 83,992 105,296 25%

*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement

PTT Group Financial Stress Test

RationaleWe are operating under VUCA* circumstancesp g

• European debt crisis• Double dip economy in the U.S• Natural disasters

1 T t th ili d th l f th

Natural disasters

2 Provide transparency and confidence to investors on

1. Test the resilience and manage the solvency of the company

Objectives

2. Provide transparency and confidence to investors on PTT’s health

Scope

* Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity34

7-Step Approach

1 3 52 4

External scenarios

Industry ecosystem

Company risk model

1 3 5

Transmission to industry

linkages

Transmission to company

model

2 4Build stresstesting engine & capability

linkages model

7 6

Build mitigation

plan

Run model and measure

impact

7 6Iterate for

mitigation plansOperate

▪ Monitor & Modify

Th i th h l di i di t– The scenario through leading indicators – Stress scenarios to reflect the new uncertainties and changes

to levels of macro-economic indicators in existing scenarios– Transmission mechanisms to reflect new linkages to industry

and compan

Maintain

and company

35

Stress Scenarios

Europe ▪ Orderly defaults of ▪ Euro zone

Extreme stress

StressImpending crisisSigns of weakness

Business as usual

▪ Recapitalization of bank balance sheets in progressEurope Orderly defaults of

PIIGS▪ Eurozone intact due to

Focus on fiscal transfers as adjustment mechanism

breakdownin progress▪ Manufacturing and service sectors in

contraction zone▪ All countries cost of borrowing

increased▪ Deteriorating financial health of Italy▪ Partial arrangement on Euro zone fiscal mechanism

▪ Trade and FX imbalances: Deterioration of fiscal situation

TodayUS

▪ Debt deleveraging increases pace, reducing capital availability

Partial arrangement on Euro zone fiscal union

▪ Decline in housing prices▪ Inflation falls to lowest

levels since march 2011▪ Retail sales increasing

China

and increasing imbalances

▪ Further downgrade of US

Todayy

▪ Unemployment remains at 8-9%

▪ Consumer spending weakens

▪ Real estate transaction

▪ Retail sales increasing pace

▪ Unemployment improves to 9%

China ▪ Credit crunch from –NPA’s in real estate–Refinancing of past stimulus program

▪ Export decline due to developed world

▪ Social unrest in China due to rural and urban economic divide

Today

volume declined in Oct▪ Trade surplus

increased, but slowdown in exports in October

▪ M1 and M2 growth developed world slowdown

▪ The flood repeats in this year and FDI

Thailand

M1 and M2 growth remained on downward trend

▪ Impact of flood affects GDP growth Thailand

▪ On top of flood, Social and politicalslows down as several

industries move to other ASEAN countries

Today

gin Q1-2 , 2012, no industries relocate

political tensions and rise to civil unrest

36

Mitigation Plan to Ensure Resilience

Range of impact of stress

Stress caseBase case (from business plan 2012)

Actions to take before the stress scenario materializes

Business as usual

Monitor scenario through lead indicators; incorporate into investment approval decisionsAA

Performance decline

No regret operational

Operational mitigation:

Launch opex and capex excellence to achieve top quartile

Build cash buffer e g max debt capacity

b1

b2

B

decline pmitigation Build cash buffer e.g. max debt capacity

Create a pre-emptive and contingency operational plan – Crisis plan for capacity optimization

b2

b3

Financial Health issue

– Optimal hedging strategy

Strategic mitigation: C

B C

Crisis

g g

Prepare for divestments of non strategic assets

Review and prioritize capex

c1c2

Crisis Review the trade off of early major additional debt or equity issuance

c3

37

Subsidiaries ConsolidateS b idi i C lid t Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate

Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 31 December 2011

Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00%PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95%

Associates Equity

Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00%

Joint Ventures ProportionateT Th i M l i (Th il d) C Ltd TTM (T) 50 00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%

Associates EquityPTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.92%PTT Phenol Co Ltd PPCL 40 00%Associates Equity

Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%

Others CostPetroAsia (Huizhou) Co Ltd PA(Huizhou) 25 00%

Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%

Associates EquityThai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00%Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00%PTT Utilit Co Ltd PTTUT 40 00%

PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00%PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00%

Joint Ventures ProportionateHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50%PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00%

PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00%PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76%

Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc BAFS 7 06%

PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00%B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00%Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation Co.,Ltd NNEG 30.00%Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00%

Others CostRatchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Refining Associates EquityThai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10%IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51%Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00%Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00%

Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

International Trading Business Group

OthersOthers Fair ValueSubsidiaries Consolidate

Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Associates Equity

38

Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Associates EquityPTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

PTT Aspiration

To perform listedTo perform listed company role in high returns

HPO(Technologically Advanced Green NOC)

Sustainable Growth Strategy

EconomicTo perform SOE role in public service

To perform energy company role in caring society & environment

CG CSR

StrategySocial Environmental

39

PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy

PTT has the largest market cap on the SETPTT has the largest market cap on the SET Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTTMinistry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT

SET Market Cap = Baht 9.6 trillion

PTTEP 6.4%

PTTGC 3.5%

OthersPTT

Group

Vayupak Fund 15%

Public 34%

PTT 10.9%

TOP 1.6%

IRPC1.0%

BCP &

Others 76.2%

Group 23.8%

Ministry of Finance

51%

Others 0.4%

D t f 9 S t b 2011Data as of 2 March 2012 Data as of 9 September 2011Data as of 2 March 2012

40

Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010 (PTT Only)2010 20112010 2011

Investing2010

-29,1332011

-15,270

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -18,925 -24,842

Operating2010

65,7012011

72,632

Net Income 54,457 73,434

Changes in assets & liabilities 18,636 4,263Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -8,335 -32,910

Dividend/Interest Received 22,123 30,588

Others -23,998 11,894

Income Tax -14,153 -9,655

Non-Cash Adjustment 6,625 4,087

Interest-net 136 503

Free Cash flow

Financing -18,024 -67,380

Repayment Loans -26,250 -32,786Free Cash flow

36,568 57,362 Interest paid -11,932 -12,628

Dividend paid -33,447 -31,722

Received from share issue 3,185 1,698

Adjust effect of FX

-1 47

Received from loans/Bonds 50,420 8,058

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out)

1 47

41

Equivalents

61,311 51,341

Equivalents

42,768 61,311

Cash In/(Out)

18,543 -9,971

41

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2011 & 2010

Investing2010

-123,1262011-160,454

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)

-105,916 -112,525

2 672 77 033

Operating2010155,902

2011177,550

Net Income 83,992 105,296

Changes in assets & liabilities 20,629 -289Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -2,672 -77,033

Dividend/Interest Received 10,623 15,644

Others -25,161 13,460

Changes in assets & liabilities

Income Tax -43,707 -42,074

Non-Cash Adjustment 94,890 113,386

Interest - net 99 1,231

Free Cash flow

Financing 4,901 -45,423

Repayment Loans 51 452 36 284Free Cash flow

32,776 17,096Repayment Loans -51,452 -36,284

Interest paid -14,718 -18,536

Dividend paid -31,755 -41,103

Received from share issue 3,626 1,983, ,

Received from loans/Bonds 99,200 48,517

Adjust effect of FX

Ending Cash & Cash E i l t

Beginning Cash and Cash E i l t C h I /(O t)

-5,909 8,658

42

Equivalents

135,801 116,132

Equivalents

104,033 135,801

Cash In/(Out)

31,768 -19,669

42

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage RiskManaged debt according to financial risk and policy

Debt Portfolio

ConsolidatedConsolidatedPTT OnlyPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB ConsolidatedConsolidatedPTT OnlyPTT OnlyU t

: Cost of debts ~ 4.34 %: % fixed-rate ~ 82 %: Avg. debt life ~ 6.1 years

: Cost of debts ~ 5.04 %: % fixed-rate ~ 90 %: Avg. debt life ~ 7.5 years

343,138 370,262 391,696

g y

84,147114,442

229,606

USD THB,

266,185257,443 (31%)(25%)(41%)

243,153

63,979 68,30872,337(25%) (26%)(30%)

(41%)

193,454 197,877170,816

258,991 255,860

162,090 (75%) (74%)

(69%)(75%)

(70%) (59%)

31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11

Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2011 (THB/USD = 31.8319 THB/JPY = 0.4124 ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax. 43

2011 – Year of Record Profit

Unit : THB Billion

Record Year

• Increasing sales volume 926

1,2141,508

2,0011,586

1,898

2,428

Revenue~USD 80 bn

from ESP, GSP6, Ethane cracker (PTTPE)

• Stock gain as crude oil price surged

386 400 490 645926 USD 80 bn

~USD 60 bn

surged

Effective BCM

Eff ti B i C ti it

~USD 10 bn

Effective Business Continuity Management lead to minimal impact from flood in Q4/2011

Stress Test

Net Income

62 7

85.595.5 97.8

59 5

84.0

105.3

55% Stress Test

Group-wide Stress Test to prepare for future uncertainties21.6 24.5

37.6

62.751.7

59.5

19% 38% 45% 41% 63% 43%45%50%

37% 58%

57%

55%

62%55%

59%

59%

36% PTT

Affiliates

442001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

19%81%

38% 45% 41% 63% 42%43%

41%64% 50%36%

Strong Contributions from All Businesses

Unit : THB Billion+25%

Prices Drivers

17.8Petrochem

84 0

105.3Net Income

+75%

Prices Drivers

• Crude oil 106 $/BBL (+40%)• Accounting GRM 6.08 $/BBL (+26%)• Spread HDPE 443 $/Ton (‐13%)

9.4

13.410.2

PTTEP

84.0 Refinery+43%

Spread HDPE 443 $/Ton (‐13%) • Spread PX 647 $/Ton (+93%)

Volume Drivers

28.7

30.6 PTTEP+7% • Ethane cracker 1 MTA (Q4/10)

• HDPE 300 KTA & LDPE 300 KTA (Q1/11)• Bis‐Phenol‐A 150 KTA(Q2/11)

36.147.8

PTT+32%

• PP/PDH 300/310 KTA (Q3/10, Q1/11)• TDAE 50 KTA (Q1/11)• Oil Sands KKD 15,000 BOED (Q1/11)• Vietnam 16 1 32 000 BOED (Q3/11)

-0.4 -4.3 Others

2010 2011

• Vietnam 16‐1 32,000 BOED (Q3/11)• ESP 0.76 MTA (Q3/10)• GSP 6 1.8 MTA (Q1/11)• LNG Terminal capacity 5 MTA (Q3/11)

45

2010 2011

Dividend 10.25 13.00(THB/Share)

2010-2011 AccoladesPTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local

h h

Asia Talent Management10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011

7th Top Asia Energy Companies of 201035th Top Global Energy Companies of 2010

128th Fortune Global 500 of 2011- 155th in 2010 - 118th in 2009

171th The Biggest Listed Companies in the World 2011-196th in 2010 -244th in 2009

Dow JonesSustainabilityIndex # 17

Best CEO 2010Best CFO 2010

Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards 2010 & 2011

Thai BMA Best Bond Awards 2010

The winners of The Asset’s Platinum Awards in 2011Best CFO 2010

Best Managed Company 2010Best Corporate Governance 2010Best Investor Relations 2010Best Corporate Social

Recognition Awards 2010 & 2011• Asia’s Best CEO• Asia’s Best CFO• Best IR Website/Promotion • Best Environmental

Responsibility

2010• Deal of the Year• Most Creative Issue• Best Investor Relations Issuer

Platinum Awards in 2011

Best Corporate Social Responsibility 2010Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2010

Responsibility • Best Investor Relations• Best Investor Relations

ProfessionalBoard of the year Award 2010/11

SET Awards• Top Corporate Governance Trusted Brand 2011 Best CEO for Energy Sector 2011 Outstanding State Enterprise

Report Award 2010 & 2011• Best Corporate Social

Responsibility Awards 2011

• Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award for Service Station

gy g pAward 2010• Best State Enterprise of the

Year, Best of the Best• Outstanding Leadership• Outstanding Innovation 46

PTT Consolidated Performance : Q4/11

Dubai (USD/BBL)

Unit : MMTHB

107 107

4%

OthersPTTEP

648,365595,366

Unit : MMTHB8%

73%

16%

7%PTT - Gas

Revenue

Q3/11 Q4/11Revenue

73% PTT - Oil & Trading

8%PTT - Oil & Trading

Others

52,866 50,9754%

64%19%

9%

8%

PTT - Gas PTTEPEBITDA

EBITDAQ3/11 Q4/11

Others

Net Income

21,59916,645

23%63%

15%6%

‐29%

PetChem

PTTEPRefiningNet

IncomeNet Income

EPS (THB/Share)Q3/11 Q4/117.57 5.83

46%

PTT47

PTT Group Performance : Q4/11

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q3/11 Q4/11 QoQ 3Q/11 Q4/11 QoQ

PTT Company Only 24 894 9 024 -64% 24 894 9 024 -64%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

PTT Company Only 24,894 9,024 -64% 24,894 9,024 -64%

Less: Dividend Received 13,182 493 -96% 13,182 493 -96%

Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates and other adjusting 5 919 n.m. 5 919 n.m.

PTT Net operating Income 11 707 7 612 -35% 11 707 7 612 -35%PTT Net operating Income 11,707 7,612 -35% 11,707 7,612 -35%

E&P - PTTEP 7,450 15,150 103% 65.29% 5,176 10,433 102%

Petro Business 8,325 4,449 -47% 3,957 2,417 -39%

- PTTGC* 6,095 3,998 -34% 48.92% 3,006 2,083 -31%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTME/PTTTANK 2,230 451 -80% 40-48% 951 334 -65%

Refining Business 3,936 1,395 -65% 1,456 1,052 -28%

- TOP 2,518 1,862 -26% 49.10% 1,220 1,064 -13%

IRPC 177 2 195 38 51% 275 587 113%- IRPC -177 -2,195 n.m. 38.51% -275 -587 113%

- SPRC 991 1,167 18% 36.00% 339 446 32%

- BCP 604 561 -7% 27.22% 172 129 -25%

Others Buiness -106 -4,484 4130% -697 -4,869 n.m.

( G G)Inter - PTTI group(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE -445 -5,861 n.m. 100% -445 -5,861 n.m.

Gas & Utilities

-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 853 169 -80% 20-100% 269 -125 -146%

Oil & Oth. - PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE//PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo -514 1,208 n.m. 33-100% -521 1,117 n.m.

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 19,605 16,510 -16% 9,892 9,033 -9%

PTT Conso. Net Income 31,312 24,122 -23% 21,599 16,645 -23%

48*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement

PTTEP: 2012-2016 CAPEX

Total Expenditures (2012-2016) = US$ 20 Billion**

CAPEX = US$ 12 Billion

5,168

CAPEX = US$ 12 Billion

OPEX = US$ 8 Billion

3 295 3,479

4,129

3,5533,495*1,571

3,295

1,174

1,397

1,473 1,522 1,747

3,5972,732

1,822 1,957 1,8062,321

20142011 2012 2013 2015 2016

* Exclude KKD Oil Sands Acquisition cost of US$ 2.28 Billion** Exclude expenditure for M&A opportunities

49

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long TermNatural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

Gas demand forecast (CAGR during Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 20112011--20302030)): Total ~ : Total ~ 11%%: Power ~ : Power ~ 11%%: GSP ~: GSP ~ 11%%

6,000mmscfd

: GSP ~ : GSP ~ 11%%: Industry ~ : Industry ~ 33%%: NGV: NGV ~ ~ 22%%

NGVNGV 77%%

55,,422422

4,000

5,000

IndustryIndustry

1313%%

1717%%

NGVNGV

66%%

3,000

GSPGSP

2121%%11,,970970

1313%%1818%%

1 000

2,00088%%

1515%%

0

1,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

PowerPower7777%% 6060%% 5858%%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Source : PTT

50

Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand

160,000

180,000KTOE

6%

163,812145,604 2%Nuclear

120,000

140,000

Hydro/Import

17%

6%

15%

Renewable

126,588

106,263

87,651 3% 15%

6%

14%4%13%

1%

60,000

80,000

100,000

14%13%

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

33%

2%

,

38%

14%

13%3%

35%

15%

38%

14%

20,000

40,000

,

38%

33%

Oil 27%32%

38%

29%31%

0

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010/ PTT team analysis 2011 51

Natural Gas Price StructureGas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

CustomersCustomersSales Price StructureSales Price Structure

Gas Pool PriceGas Pool Price Supply MarginsSupply Margins Pipeline TariffsPipeline Tariffs+ +

Power Producers Power Producers 6060%%

EGATEGAT 2727%% 11 7575%%: EGAT : EGAT 2727%%

: IPP : IPP 2121%%

: SPP : SPP 1212%%

Average Purchased Average Purchased Gas PriceGas Price

11..7575%%

11..7575%%

99..3333%%

2121..8 8 Bt/Bt/MMBtuMMBtu

GSP GSP 2121%% Charged at the same price structure of power producersCharged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Ethane Propane LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicalsEthane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas

ki

Capped at 333 USD/ton

Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price

Industry Industry 1313%% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oilCharged at prices comparable to fuel oil

NGV NGV 66%% Capped at Capped at 99..5 5 Baht/Kg*Baht/Kg*

Export Cooking Gas

52* Government will increase NGV retail price Baht 0.50 /kg per month from January 16, 2012 until January 15, 2013

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

Future Growth of PTTPTT International

Coal Pipeline

10 712.0

14.0Unit : MM TonSAR EMG (Egypt)

8.5 9 10.7 10.7• Investing 25% in EMG

• Offshore natural gas pipeline system

from Egypt to Israel2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jembayan Sebuku

• Expansion at Sebuku Northern Leases and Jembayan• Potential development in Brunei & Madagascar

• 2011 Sales volume = 0.69 BCM/y (67 mmscfd) due to interrupted supply

PowerPalm PlantationPTT Green Energy

• Potential development in Brunei & Madagascar projects

2011 Xayaburi Hydro 1,285 MW

2012Onwards

Expanding in neighboring countries

PTT Green Energy

• 225,877 Ha land acquired

• 19,706 Ha plantedo Additional 22 650 Ha has been Onwards countrieso Additional 22,650 Ha has been prepared in 2012.

• 2 CPO Mills : 45 T/Hr & 30 T/Hr operated commercially in Mid 2011p y

53

Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference March 19-21, 2012 · 2012. 3. 19. · (USD/BOE) 489 250...

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Transcript of Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference March 19-21, 2012 · 2012. 3. 19. · (USD/BOE) 489 250...