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Credit-Linked Notes Nick Johal Thursday 4 th June 2015.
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Transcript of Credit-Linked Notes Nick Johal Thursday 4 th June 2015.
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Credit-Linked Notes
Nick Johal
Thursday 4th June 2015
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Agenda
Investing in Credit for DFMs – issues and challenges
What are the benefits of taking a synthetic credit exposure?
What are the risks?
Questions & Appendix
2
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Investing in Credit – Issues DFMs face
Prospectus Directive
Duration
Liquidity
Supply
Retail Bonds
Absolute Return/Strategic Bond Funds
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Tailwinds for Credit
Demographics
Annuities changes and NISA
Benign inflation environment
Japanification of Europe
Technicals
4
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What are the benefits of taking a synthetic credit exposure?
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Credit Linked Note (CLN)
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A credit linked note (CLN) is a form of funded credit derivative. It is structured as a security with an embedded
credit default swap allowing the issuer to transfer a specific credit risk to credit investors.
Synthetically, the risk profile is similar to being ‘long’ the reference entity.
On the Issue date, the investor buys the CLN at par value. As a note holder, he is entitled to receive the coupons
linked to the credit risk of the underlying.
At maturity;
If no Credit Event has occurred since inception, the Notes are redeemed at par value on the maturity date.
If a Credit Event has occurred since inception, the Notes are redeemed by paying the Recovery Value to
the note holder. The investor bears a loss of {(1-R)*N]. In a worst case scenario, investors could lose their
entire investment.
Various iterations are possible e.g.
Single name CLN – The note is issued with protection sold on one reference entity
Basket CLN – The note is issued with protection sold on a basket of defined reference entities.
First-To-Default baskets
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Credit Linked Note (CLN) – simple cashflows
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Investor Bank CDS Market
Treasury desk
100
CLN
CDS
Spread
100 Funding
Ref Entity
Ref Entity
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Transparent and easy to price
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CLN coupon = CDS spread + Swap rate + funding - cost
*priced 18/11/2014
SKYLN 8y CLN Coll
8y £ Swap rate (IRSB) 2.00
CDS Spread (CDX/CDSW) 1.00
Funding 0.05
Cost -0.10
CLN coupon (%) 2.95
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Liquid, Flexible, Access
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Credit
Duration
Denomination
Coupon Type
Currency
Priced at Par
Positive Basis
Costs vs Funds
Curves
CDS Liquidity
QCB
Economic BenefitFlexibilityAccess
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Supply no longer an issue
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Format Debt Instrument
Currency GBP
Issuer SG Issuer (Secured)
Settlement / Recovery American Cash settlement / Market Recovery**
Collateral Any mixture of Gilts, Investment Grade Bonds or FTSE 100 Stocks*
Payment Frequency Semi-Annual (30/360)
Maturity 10/04/2022 Capital Protection Full capital at risk
*If stocks posted an extra 10% haircut applied **As determined by the ISDA process
Reference Entity Coupon pa S&P Moody's Fitch Reference Entity Coupon pa S&P Moody's Fitch
Pfizer Inc 2.02% AA A1 A+ BHP Billiton Ltd 2.45% A+ A1 A+
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV 2.08% A A2 A Telefonica SA 2.45% BBB Baa2 BBB+
AstraZeneca PLC 2.10% AA- A2 A+ UPM-Kymmene OYJ 2.51% BB+ Ba1 nr
Munich Re 2.10% nr Aa3 AA- SSE PLC 2.52% A- A3 A-
Dixons Retail PLC 2.16% nr nr nr UniCredit SpA 2.60% BBB- Baa2 BBB+
British American Tobacco PLC 2.17% A- A3 A- Severn Trent PLC 2.61% BBB- Baa1 nr
BT Group PLC 2.20% BBB nr BBB Tate & Lyle PLC 2.61% BBB Baa2 nr
Next PLC 2.22% BBB Baa2 nr Rio Tinto PLC 2.62% A- A3 A-
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 2.24% BBB A2 A ITV PLC 2.73% BBB- Baa3 nr
National Grid PLC 2.24% A- Baa1 BBB Marks & Spencer Group PLC 2.77% BBB- nr BBB-
Barclays PLC 2.25% BBB A3 A Firstgroup PLC 2.82% BBB- nr BBB-
HSBC Holdings PLC 2.25% A Aa3 AA- United Utilities Group PLC 2.82% nr nr nr
Rentokil Initial PLC 2.34% BBB nr nr Jaguar Land Rover Automotive 2.88% BB Ba2 BB-
Royal Bank of Scotland Group P 2.34% BBB- Baa2 A British Airways PLC 2.93% BB Ba3 nr
Sky PLC 2.35% BBB Baa2 BBB- Nokia OYJ 2.93% BB Ba2 BB
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 2.35% BBB Baa3 BBB Safeway Inc 2.95% B B2 nr
Legal & General Group PLC 2.36% A A3 A J Sainsbury PLC 3.04% nr nr nr
BP PLC 2.37% A A2 A Peugeot SA 3.20% B+ Ba3 B+
Prudential PLC 2.40% A+ A2 A+ Fiat SpA 3.30% nr nr BB-
Standard Chartered PLC 2.41% A- A2 AA- Tesco PLC 3.34% BB+ Ba1 BBB-
Vodafone Group PLC 2.41% A- Baa1 BBB+ Glencore PLC 3.38% BBB nr nr
Lafarge SA 2.42% BB+ Ba1 BB+ Anglo American PLC 3.47% BBB Baa2 BBB
Enel SpA 2.43% BBB Baa2 BBB+ Rallye SA 4.09% nr nr nr
Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance 2.43% A A2 A- Ladbrokes PLC 4.13% BB Ba2 BB
Renault SA 2.44% BB+ Ba1 BBB- ArcelorMittal 4.25% BB Ba1 BB+
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(CL01) 10y MKS fixed-floating CLN
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Issuer SG Issuer
Currency GBP
Maturity 10y
Issue Price 100%
Coupon s/a
Recovery Market
Settlement American
3.8% pa years 1 & 2
6m£L + 125bps thereafter, paid UTD
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Short Duration European HY
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Itraxx Europe Xover S23
Issuer SG Issuer
Currency GBP
Maturity long 5y
Issue Price 100%
Coupon s/a
Recovery Fixed @ 0%
Coupon = 6m£L+3.8%*n/75
n = number of Ref Entities for which no Credit Event has occurred.
Redemption = Par if no credit events
Redemption = 100%-N/75 where N is the number of Credit Events
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What are the risks?
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Risks & Mitigants
14
MTM/Basis risk
Issuer risk
Liquidity
Transparency
Quanto
Collateral (for secured issues)
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Questions & Appendix
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Credit Derivatives - CDS basics
16
Can be Cash or physically settled. If physically settled, additional complexity of CTD bond.
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CDS – Credit Event
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The Credit Risk of a Reference Entity (corporate or government) can be thought of as the risk that it
will experience a Credit Event over a predefined time horizon.
Definition of a Credit Event
1.Bankruptcy
2.Failure to pay
3.Restructuring (not applicable to US entities)
4.Repudiation & Moratorium (only for Sovereign entities)
The definition of a Credit Event is standardised across all counterparties in the credit market as per
the terms defined by International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)
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Credit Indices
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Offer Liquidity, Tradability and Transparency
Index components are selected by the Index sponsor based on specific criteria: liquidity, trading
volumes, rating, etc. The rolls occur every six months for standardised contracts.
iTraxx Main Europe 125 European IG corporates
iTraxx Xover (Europe) 75 most liquid sub IG European names
CDX North America 125 North American IG corporates
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