CRed Carbon Reduction 1 HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director : School of...

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CRedCarbon Reduction

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director:School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

St Matthews Church October 17th 2007

Energy security and climate change: the hard choices facing us.

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvCRed

Recipient of James Watt Medal5th October 2007

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19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

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"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Wholesale Price of Electricity since NETA

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10

20

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bas

eloa

d P

rice

s (£

/MW

h)

first 5 years

last 12 months

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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

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10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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10+ p


2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

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Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p


10+ p


2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Output (MWh)

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Out

put

(MW

h pe

r da

y)

Output 78 000 GWh per annum

Sufficient for 13500 house in Orkney

Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

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Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal

• Performance of an actual solar collector 9th December 2006 – 13th October 2007

• Average gain (over 3 years) is 2.245 kWh per day

• Central Heating Boiler rarely needed for Hot Water from Easter to ~ 1st October

• More Hot Water used – the greater amount of solar energy is gained

• Optimum orientation for solar hot water collectors for most houses is NOT due South

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Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal

• Significant surplus of energy in summer• Explore increasing temperature limit

provided there is an anti-scald device fitted.• Training needed to educate users to get optimum from solar collector in mid- season (setting of Central Heating Hot Water timers)• Energy/Carbon benefits to be gained by providing solar hot water on a multi- house basis.

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Actual Nuclear

Projected Nuclear

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

Renewables

New Nuclear?

New Coal ???

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy SecurityThere is a

looming capacity shortfall

Even with a full deployment of

renewables.

A 10% reduction in demand per

house will see a rise of 7% in total demand

- Increased population decreased

household size

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person

Is this Fair?

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.

Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year

~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

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Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

Micro Wind

Micro CHP

Heat Pumps

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Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

• Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

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House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

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Involve the local Community

Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly

powered by Wind Turbines

Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and

other vehicles.

Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

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The Behavioural Dimension

Electricity Consumption

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7No. people

Ave

rage

kW

h/m

onth

• Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.

• Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.

• Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.

• Education/Awareness is important

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Target Day

Results of the “Big Switch-Off”

With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possibleHow can these be translated into long term savings?

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Personal Attitudes to Energy Use can be significant

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Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

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Lighting

Refrigeration

Entertainment

Miscellaneous

Air/Public Travel

Washing/Drying

Private Car

Heating

Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

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Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can you do collectively as a Church or Community?

Visit the CRed WEB Site

Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future

saving energy

Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness

Promoting appropriate renewable energy

www.cred-uk.org

St Pauls Church, Tuckswood

http://www.cred-uk.org/

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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

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WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

33Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

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Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient

Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)

Oxford English Dictionary

Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind

Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%

Sizewell B achieves 32%

A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best

Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

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Have you got a hot water cylinder to supply hot water?

If there is no cylinder – you will have a combi boiler unless the water is heated by electricity.

You can have both condensing and non condensing boilers (either combi or not)

To work out if you have a condensing boiler – have a look at the exhaust when the boiler is running.

If there are clouds of water vapour coming from it then it is a condensing boiler.

A condensing boiler will be 85 – 92% efficient

A normal boiler will be only 65 – 75% efficient

How can you tell if you have a condensing boiler

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How can you tell if you have cavity walls?

• A solid wall • A cavity wall• With insulation

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