CREATING THE CONTEXT FOR ATTAINABLE HOME BUILDING ...€¦ · Under 1,400 1,400 to 1,799 1,800 to...

CREATING THE CONTEXT

FOR ATTAINABLE HOME

BUILDING: COMMUNITY

DEVELOPER

PERSPECTIVE

2

For-sale For-rent Both for-sale andfor-rent

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New For-Saleproduct orClass Arentals

Resaleproduct orClass Brentals

No product isserving this

market

Other (pleasespecify)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE HOUSING BROADLY; WE ARE FOCUSED ON NEW FOR-SALE

Source: ULI

Defining Attainable Housing Product Type Product Serving Attainable Housing

N =

3

For-sale For-rent Both for-sale andfor-rent

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New For-Saleproduct orClass Arentals

Resaleproduct orClass Brentals

No product isserving this

market


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE HOUSING BROADLY; WE ARE FOCUSED ON NEW FOR-SALE

Source: ULI

Defining Attainable Housing Product Type Product Serving Attainable Housing

N =

4

WHAT’S HAPPENED TO HOUSING?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Median home price

Median household income

Median Home Price and Median Household Income

(1975 = 100)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

New Starts (left axis) %SF (right axis)

Homebuilding – Starts in the United States (,000s)

5

THE PROBLEM IN ONE SLIDE. . .

Note: Prices not adjusted for inflation; Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Under $200,000

$200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

$750,000 and Over

New Home Sales by Price Band Relative to Pre-Recession Levels (2003-2006 Average = 100%, United States)

6

HOUSEHOLD SIZES DECLINE. . . BEDROOM COUNT GROWS

Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCO

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

Household Types

1-2 persons 3 person 4+ persons

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

New Construction By Bedroom Count

1-2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms

7

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SHRINKING FOOTPRINT?

Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCOI

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% o

f Hom

es U

nder 1

,400 S

FD

istr

ibution o

f N

ew

Hom

es b

y S

ize

Under 1,400 1,400 to 1,799 1,800 to 2,399 2,400 to 2,999 3,000 or more Percent of Homes Under 1,400 SF

Average Size of New For-Sale Homes Delivered 1999-2017, United States

8

THE STRANGE DISAPPEARANCE OF MEDIUM DENSITY FOR-SALE

NOTE: Incomes are represented in 2017 dollars; Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCOI

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

197

4

197

7

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

201

0

201

3

201

6

Detached SF Attached % Attached

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

197

4

197

7

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

201

0

201

3

201

6

For-Sale For-Rent % For-Sale

MF Permits as % of Total Permits MF Permits by Intention: For-Rent vs. For-Sale

9

ULI MEMBERS DEFINE ATTAINABLE: 80% - 120% OF AMI

Source: ULI

Housingattainable to60% - 80% of

AMI (Areamedianincome)

Housingattainable to60% - 100%

of AMI

Housingattainable to80% - 120%

of AMI


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Housing providedwithout subsidy tomeet this market

segment

Housing providedwith subsidies

Subsidies have noimpact on thisproduct type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Members Definition -- Income Definition Members Definition Attainable = No Subsidies

N =

10

UNEVEN INCOME GROWTH

Sources: U.S. Census; RCLCO

11

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-100%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

ATTAINABLE HOUSING MARKET SHARE

Source: ULI

What Share of the Total Demand for Housing is in the

“Attainable Band” (80% to 120%)

Share Of Attainable Housing That Member Respondents are

Delivering in the “Attainable Band”

N =

12

CHALLENGES TO DELIVERING ATTAINABLE HOUSING

Source: ULI

1.6 1.671.8

2.08 2.14

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.53 2.6 2.64

33.24

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Challenges To Delivering Attainable Housing

N =

13

SUCCESS FACTORS IN DELIVERING ATTAINABLE HOUSING

Source: ULI

2.26

2.5

2.67

3 3

3.56

BuildingEfficiencies/Design

FinancialIncentives/Subsidies

Other (Please SpecifyBelow)

Local CommunitySupport

Relief from localrequirements

Increased Density

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Factors Contributing to Success in Contributing Attainable Housing

N =

14

ATTAINABLE HOUSING SOLUTIONS: WHO AND HOW

Source: ULI

87.80%82.93% 85.37%

78.05%70.73%

7.32%

First-timehomebuyer

Prospective buyerwith limited down

payment

Families(households with

children)

Singles andCouples

Retirees on FixedIncome


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1.71 1.71 1.71

2.462.85

3.23.38

Limitedcommunityamenities

Less desirablelocation

Lower qualityfinishes

Attached vsdetachedproduct

Smaller lot size Other (PleaseSpecify Below)

Smaller homesize

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Acceptable

Consumer

Solutions

for

Attainable

Housing

Based on

Industry’s

Opinion

Attainable

Housing

Solutions

are for

Everyone,

Not just

Millennials.

N =

15

CONSUMER PREFERENCE FOR LOCATION AND AMENITIES

Source: ULI

0% 5% 10% 15%20% 25% 30%35%

Resort area

Small town

Rural area

City in a mostly residentialneighborhood

City near a mix of offices,apartments, and shops

Suburban area with mostlyresidential uses

Suburban area with a mix ofhouses, shops, and

businesses

$100K+

$50-$100k

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Fitness centers

Gated entry

Trails

Package receiving

Resort pool (lounge)

Art and culture, such as…

Farmers market

Dog park

Sports courts

Pocket Parks

Virtual services, such as…

Lap pool

Children's pool

Maker spaces, providing…

Community garden

Golf

Very important Somewhat important Not important

RCLCO’s National Consumer Preference Survey

N =

16

HOMEBUILDING LANDSCAPE: STRATEGIES AND OBSERVATIONS

What builders are doing (Strategies):

1. Small Homes (Reducing Footage)

2. High Density Detached (Cluster);

3. Missing Middle (Attached);

4. Value Housing (Brand Segment).

What the committed are finding (Results)

1. Similar margins and greater price elasticity

2. Segmentation beyond density, size and price (space choices, finishes, exterior elevations, and

aesthetics)

3. Design within, between and around homes (walkability and gathering spaces)

4. What builders are doing (Strategies):

5. Lifestyle choice messaging: communicating the trade-offs (walkability, low maintenance, financial

flexibility)

6. Attainable orientation as an entitlement strategy: incomes mix easily

17

BUILDER STRATEGIES -- SMALL HOMES

Image source: Community websites

Boulder Creek Neighborhoods

Wee-Cottages; Stapleton, CO

Characteristics

DefinitionLess than 1,400 SF (Tier 1)

Less than 1,800 SF (Tier 2)

Unit Type 1-3 BD, 1-2BA

Unit Size 700 – 1,400 SF

Density 8-20 du/ac

Land PlanAll

Most effective with Density

The Cottage Company

Danielson Grove; Kirkland, WA

New Home Company

Azure at Escencia; Mission Viejo, CA

18

BUILDER STRATEGIES – VALUE HOMES


Fresh Paint by Garman Homes

Briar Chapel; Chapel Hill, NC

Characteristics

Definition Streamlined structural and interior finish options

Unit Type All

Unit Size All

Density All

Landplan All

DR Horton Express

Windermere Townhomes; Shakopee,

MN

LGI

Mirror Lake; Lehigh Acres, FL

19

BUILDER STRATEGIES – MISSING MIDDLE


Holmes Homes

Mews Collection; South Jordan, UT

CHARACTERISTICS

DefinitionDefined by Opticos Architects as typologies

between detached hand mid-rise buildings

Density 12-20 du/ac

Unit Type1-3 BD, 1-2BA

One-Two-three story


Landplan

Options

Duplex to Multi-Plex (Stacked, Side/Side), Row

Townhome,, Bungalow Cluster, Combos

Onyx East

Switchyard at Onyx; Indianapolis, IN

Michael Harris Homes

The Copley at Crown; Gaithersburg,

MD

20

BUILDER STRATEGIES - CLUSTER


Lennar

Olive Grove; Chino, CA

CHARACTERISTICS

Location Suburban, Rural

Unit Type1-3 BD, 1-2BA

Two-story


Lot Dimensions Typical 6-Court Modules: 125’ x 150’

Lot Size 2,500 (50 x 50)

Density 8-20 du/ac

Landplan

Green Court

Motor Court

Alley Load

Lennar

Autumn Field; Chino, CA

Bela Flor Communities

Bella Rosa; Mesa, AZ

21

RANCHO MISSION VIEJO - DENSITY

o 5 Product Types

• Condominiums

• Townhomes

• Duplexes

• High-Density

Detached

o 23.9 Acres

o 535 Units

o 22.38 Averge

Density

o 740 s.f. – 1,760 s.f.

22

RANCHO MISSION VIEJO -ARCHITECTURAL APPROACH

o High-Density

Detached

o 16.4 du/ac

o 876 – 1,195 SF

23

RANCHO MISSION VIEJO - ADSALTERNATIVE DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS

o Modify planning criteria to increase densities

o 2 year process

o Revised ADS include:

• Relaxed parking standards in 55+ neighborhoods

• In MR neighborhoods increase guest parking from 200‘

to 300‘ for 75% of the units

• Planned Concept products (SFD Densities >8 du/ac)

decrease building separations to 6‘ on zero lot line

• Useable private open space for decks, roof decks and

balconies up to 75 S.F.

24

AMENITY SWIPES DATA

AUSTIN LA ORLANDO DC

221 W 6th St

Suite 2030

Austin, TX 78701

11601 Wilshire Blvd

Suite 1650

Los Angeles, CA

90025

964 Lake Baldwin Ln

Suite 100

Orlando, FL 32814

7200 Wisconsin Ave

Suite 1110

Bethesda, MD 20814

Report prepared by:

Adam Ducker

Senior Managing Director

P: (240) 644-0980

E: [email protected]

W: RCLCO.COM

Lorry Lynn

Principal

P: (714) 329-2118

E: [email protected]

W: RCLCO.COM

CREATING THE CONTEXT FOR ATTAINABLE HOME BUILDING ...€¦ · Under 1,400 1,400 to 1,799 1,800 to...

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