Jeremy Hill, Director

CEDBR.org

CREATING AN IMPACT

RETHINKING YOUR MODUS OPERANDI

(MODE OF OPERATION)

-Sylvania, GA - The Azalea & Dogwood City Pop 2,956

-Plains, KS – Widest Main Street in the USAPop 1,146

How do you determine value in a declining economy? Is it an endless spiraling tunnel?

Creation of wealth Where does that cash come from?

Shifting landscape by the numbers

Comparative advantage Not just targeting -> resourcing

OVERVIEW

How do you determine value in a declining economy?Is it an endless spiraling tunnel?

DemandClusters

Knowledge base Efficiencies Innovation

Larger private firmsSpill over to small

cities

DO LARGE CITIES SUPPORT SMALL CITIES?

LG City

A

B

C

D

Resources Natural Labor

Cheaper Land Capital Labor

InnovationEfficient Support large cities

DO SMALL CITIES SUPPORT LARGE CITIES?

LG City

A

B

C

D

MOBILITY OF CAPITALFIRMS (CASH & LABOR) MOVE IN AND OUT

• Firms ARE mobile• Economies are complex – intricate/intertangled structures

Creation of wealthWhere does that cash come from?

Core -> DemandDemand from areas

outside your local economy. Maximize Growth/value -

Innovation & Resource exploitation

Multipliers (minus) savings and

leakages

GROWTH/WEALTH CREATION

$1

$.75

$.50

$.25=

$2.50

Commodities Value added agricultureResource fitting

KS MULTIPLIERS

Earnings EmploymentAircraft Manufacturing 2.4 4.7Hospitals 1.7 2.0Bowling Centers 1.7 1.2Cattle Ranching 4.2 2.1

Selected Industry Multipliers by Region – www.CEDBR.org

Shifting landscape by the numbers

Relative Contraction

Mor

e Co

ncen

trate

d

Relative Expansion

Less

Co

ncen

trate

d

Earnings

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Northwest U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 104,786 105,843 1.01% 5.01% -4.01%Farm 14,214 10,433 -26.60% -13.99% -12.61% 7.34 6.51Forestry Fishing 329 316 -3.95% 4.34% -8.29% 0.65 0.62Mining 3,870 8,334 115.35% 68.46% 46.88% 7.58 10.07Utilities 228 243 6.58% -2.53% 9.11% 0.58 0.66Construction 4,027 4,171 3.58% -3.19% 6.76% 0.65 0.72Manufacturing 4,857 3,932 -19.04% -26.72% 7.68% 0.45 0.52Wholesale Trade 4,130 4,016 -2.76% -1.12% -1.64% 1.05 1.07Retail Trade 9,604 10,998 14.51% -3.04% 17.55% 0.83 1.02Transportation 1,289 1,886 46.31% 0.39% 45.93% 0.37 0.56Information 1,119 1,047 -6.43% -17.01% 10.57% 0.44 0.51Finance and Insurance 3,157 4,278 35.51% 20.84% 14.67% 0.64 0.74Real Estate 1,206 1,503 24.63% 35.81% -11.19% 0.34 0.33Professional and Technical 3,173 1,762 -44.47% 15.15% -59.62% 0.49 0.24Management 272 290 6.62% 9.87% -3.25% 0.24 0.24Administrative and Waste 1,535 1,528 -0.46% 3.49% -3.94% 0.25 0.25Education 322 280 -13.04% 29.94% -42.99% 0.17 0.12Health Care 6,848 6,666 -2.66% 23.18% -25.84% 0.71 0.58Arts and Entertainment 648 409 -36.88% 20.75% -57.64% 0.32 0.18Accommodation and Food Service 4,997 4,167 -16.61% 11.08% -27.69% 0.73 0.57Federal Civilian 926 897 -3.13% 5.50% -8.63% 0.54 0.51Military 672 544 -19.05% 1.01% -20.06% 0.51 0.43State and Local 16,922 15,935 -5.83% 7.23% -13.06% 1.46 1.33

Northwest EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

Anything alive and willing

TYPICAL STRATEGY

What are your assets?What are your costs?

CEDBR has a fiscal modelWhat are your needs?

Planning Concentrated/diversified workforce – reduce risk/risk

adverse Labor/output – is there excess labor supply? Natural resource (water, energy, farm…) Capital resources Human capital resources – (technical colleges and

universities)

RETHINKING!!

Relative advantage Relative cost of production

Labor, capital, fuel, and productivity Relative delivered price Expected growth

Declining sector, Long term potential, up and comer-high risk Are you thinking only about your county?

Labor and resources go far beyond geo political boarders

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

JEREMY HILL, DIRECTOR

WWW.CEDBR.ORG

HANDOUT MATERIAL

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Kansas U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 1,770,708 1,820,350 2.80% 5.01% -2.21%Farm 78,134 63,580 -18.63% -13.99% -4.64% 2.39 2.31Forestry Fishing 7,058 8,506 20.52% 4.34% 16.17% 0.82 0.97Mining 19,721 39,779 101.71% 68.46% 33.24% 2.29 2.80Utilities 7,609 8,026 5.48% -2.53% 8.01% 1.15 1.28Construction 93,169 90,016 -3.38% -3.19% -0.20% 0.89 0.90Manufacturing 200,071 172,671 -13.70% -26.72% 13.03% 1.11 1.33Wholesale Trade 65,761 66,160 0.61% -1.12% 1.72% 0.99 1.03Retail Trade 198,827 179,981 -9.48% -3.04% -6.44% 1.02 0.97Transportation 56,436 55,316 -1.98% 0.39% -2.37% 0.96 0.96Information 54,629 38,923 -28.75% -17.01% -11.74% 1.26 1.11Finance and Insurance 76,463 93,097 21.75% 20.84% 0.92% 0.92 0.94Real Estate 45,746 57,280 25.21% 35.81% -10.60% 0.77 0.73Professional and Technical 81,792 94,089 15.03% 15.15% -0.11% 0.74 0.76Management 13,978 14,460 3.45% 9.87% -6.42% 0.73 0.70Administrative and Waste 81,860 91,700 12.02% 3.49% 8.53% 0.80 0.88Education 21,230 25,036 17.93% 29.94% -12.02% 0.66 0.61Health Care 165,770 189,634 14.40% 23.18% -8.79% 1.02 0.96Arts and Entertainment 25,113 27,753 10.51% 20.75% -10.24% 0.74 0.69Accommodation and Food Service 103,190 109,935 6.54% 11.08% -4.55% 0.89 0.87Federal Civilian 25,660 25,938 1.08% 5.50% -4.41% 0.88 0.86Military 28,436 34,418 21.04% 1.01% 20.02% 1.28 1.57State and Local 228,220 240,391 5.33% 7.23% -1.90% 1.16 1.17

EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotientKansas

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Northwest U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 104,786 105,843 1.01% 5.01% -4.01%Farm 14,214 10,433 -26.60% -13.99% -12.61% 7.34 6.51Forestry Fishing 329 316 -3.95% 4.34% -8.29% 0.65 0.62Mining 3,870 8,334 115.35% 68.46% 46.88% 7.58 10.07Utilities 228 243 6.58% -2.53% 9.11% 0.58 0.66Construction 4,027 4,171 3.58% -3.19% 6.76% 0.65 0.72Manufacturing 4,857 3,932 -19.04% -26.72% 7.68% 0.45 0.52Wholesale Trade 4,130 4,016 -2.76% -1.12% -1.64% 1.05 1.07Retail Trade 9,604 10,998 14.51% -3.04% 17.55% 0.83 1.02Transportation 1,289 1,886 46.31% 0.39% 45.93% 0.37 0.56Information 1,119 1,047 -6.43% -17.01% 10.57% 0.44 0.51Finance and Insurance 3,157 4,278 35.51% 20.84% 14.67% 0.64 0.74Real Estate 1,206 1,503 24.63% 35.81% -11.19% 0.34 0.33Professional and Technical 3,173 1,762 -44.47% 15.15% -59.62% 0.49 0.24Management 272 290 6.62% 9.87% -3.25% 0.24 0.24Administrative and Waste 1,535 1,528 -0.46% 3.49% -3.94% 0.25 0.25Education 322 280 -13.04% 29.94% -42.99% 0.17 0.12Health Care 6,848 6,666 -2.66% 23.18% -25.84% 0.71 0.58Arts and Entertainment 648 409 -36.88% 20.75% -57.64% 0.32 0.18Accommodation and Food Service 4,997 4,167 -16.61% 11.08% -27.69% 0.73 0.57Federal Civilian 926 897 -3.13% 5.50% -8.63% 0.54 0.51Military 672 544 -19.05% 1.01% -20.06% 0.51 0.43State and Local 16,922 15,935 -5.83% 7.23% -13.06% 1.46 1.33

Northwest EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Southwest U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 108,813 111,174 2.17% 5.01% -2.84%Farm 12,454 9,714 -22.00% -13.99% -8.01% 6.19 5.77Forestry Fishing 617 728 17.99% 4.34% 13.65% 1.17 1.36Mining 3,049 4,974 63.14% 68.46% -5.33% 5.75 5.72Utilities 346 571 65.03% -2.53% 67.56% 0.85 1.49Construction 4,206 3,727 -11.39% -3.19% -8.20% 0.65 0.61Manufacturing 10,085 11,196 11.02% -26.72% 37.74% 0.91 1.41Wholesale Trade 3,394 3,731 9.93% -1.12% 11.04% 0.83 0.95Retail Trade 11,622 10,755 -7.46% -3.04% -4.42% 0.97 0.95Transportation 2,588 2,524 -2.47% 0.39% -2.86% 0.72 0.72Information 837 733 -12.43% -17.01% 4.58% 0.31 0.34Finance and Insurance 2,865 3,155 10.12% 20.84% -10.71% 0.56 0.52Real Estate 1,630 1,886 15.71% 35.81% -20.11% 0.45 0.39Professional and Technical 2,343 2,165 -7.60% 15.15% -22.74% 0.35 0.29Management 377 184 -51.19% 9.87% -61.06% 0.32 0.15Administrative and Waste 2,337 2,327 -0.43% 3.49% -3.91% 0.37 0.37Education 124 66 -46.77% 29.94% -76.72% 0.06 0.03Health Care 2,174 1,676 -22.91% 23.18% -46.09% 0.22 0.14Arts and Entertainment 737 742 0.68% 20.75% -20.08% 0.35 0.30Accommodation and Food Service 4,745 4,855 2.32% 11.08% -8.77% 0.67 0.63Federal Civilian 909 906 -0.33% 5.50% -5.83% 0.51 0.49Military 813 697 -14.27% 1.01% -15.28% 0.60 0.52State and Local 18,975 20,373 7.37% 7.23% 0.14% 1.57 1.62

Southwest EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 North Central U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 147,482 145,642 -1.25% 5.01% -6.26%Farm 11,853 9,610 -18.92% -13.99% -4.94% 4.35 4.36Forestry Fishing 213 551 158.69% 4.34% 154.34% 0.30 0.79Mining 1,281 2,291 78.84% 68.46% 10.38% 1.78 2.01Utilities 91 68 -25.27% -2.53% -22.74% 0.17 0.14Construction 6,909 6,947 0.55% -3.19% 3.74% 0.79 0.87Manufacturing 18,946 16,443 -13.21% -26.72% 13.51% 1.26 1.58Wholesale Trade 5,757 3,354 -41.74% -1.12% -40.63% 1.04 0.65Retail Trade 17,483 15,548 -11.07% -3.04% -8.03% 1.07 1.05Transportation 1,044 2,219 112.55% 0.39% 112.16% 0.21 0.48Information 1,979 1,604 -18.95% -17.01% -1.94% 0.55 0.57Finance and Insurance 4,908 5,612 14.34% 20.84% -6.49% 0.71 0.71Real Estate 2,536 3,006 18.53% 35.81% -17.28% 0.51 0.48Professional and Technical 4,077 4,592 12.63% 15.15% -2.51% 0.45 0.46Management 1,775 1,472 -17.07% 9.87% -26.94% 1.12 0.90Administrative and Waste 3,853 5,274 36.88% 3.49% 33.39% 0.45 0.63Education 931 1,560 67.56% 29.94% 37.62% 0.35 0.47Health Care 11,115 14,036 26.28% 23.18% 3.10% 0.82 0.89Arts and Entertainment 1,573 1,726 9.73% 20.75% -11.03% 0.56 0.54Accommodation and Food Service 8,111 7,868 -3.00% 11.08% -14.08% 0.84 0.78Federal Civilian 1,193 1,097 -8.05% 5.50% -13.54% 0.49 0.45Military 1,118 978 -12.52% 1.01% -13.54% 0.61 0.56State and Local 19,828 20,961 5.71% 7.23% -1.52% 1.21 1.27

North Central EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 South Central U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 402,639 412,966 2.56% 5.01% -2.45%Farm 8,129 6,786 -16.52% -13.99% -2.53% 1.09 1.09Forestry Fishing 265 355 33.96% 4.34% 29.62% 0.14 0.18Mining 5,497 9,546 73.66% 68.46% 5.19% 2.80 2.96Utilities 656 805 22.71% -2.53% 25.25% 0.44 0.56Construction 21,412 22,282 4.06% -3.19% 7.25% 0.90 0.99Manufacturing 78,411 63,526 -18.98% -26.72% 7.74% 1.91 2.16Wholesale Trade 13,143 13,106 -0.28% -1.12% 0.83% 0.87 0.90Retail Trade 43,587 42,758 -1.90% -3.04% 1.14% 0.98 1.02Transportation 8,248 8,504 3.10% 0.39% 2.71% 0.62 0.65Information 8,157 6,262 -23.23% -17.01% -6.22% 0.83 0.78Finance and Insurance 15,464 15,783 2.06% 20.84% -18.77% 0.81 0.70Real Estate 11,015 13,957 26.71% 35.81% -9.10% 0.82 0.78Professional and Technical 13,787 16,430 19.17% 15.15% 4.02% 0.55 0.58Management 3,594 3,602 0.22% 9.87% -9.65% 0.83 0.77Administrative and Waste 20,770 23,445 12.88% 3.49% 9.39% 0.89 0.99Education 5,690 5,830 2.46% 29.94% -27.48% 0.77 0.63Health Care 38,785 40,629 4.75% 23.18% -18.43% 1.05 0.91Arts and Entertainment 5,860 6,992 19.32% 20.75% -1.44% 0.76 0.77Accommodation and Food Service 23,526 26,254 11.60% 11.08% 0.51% 0.89 0.92Federal Civilian 5,261 6,080 15.57% 5.50% 10.07% 0.79 0.89Military 5,630 5,397 -4.14% 1.01% -5.15% 1.12 1.09State and Local 38,532 41,337 7.28% 7.23% 0.05% 0.86 0.88

South Central EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Northeast U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 341,867 351,803 2.91% 5.01% -2.11%Farm 14,964 12,910 -13.73% -13.99% 0.26% 2.37 2.42Forestry Fishing 137 220 60.58% 4.34% 56.24% 0.08 0.13Mining 416 1,303 213.22% 68.46% 144.76% 0.25 0.47Utilities 0 245 NA NA NA 0.00 0.20Construction 17,685 18,339 3.70% -3.19% 6.88% 0.87 0.95Manufacturing 21,485 20,427 -4.92% -26.72% 21.80% 0.61 0.81Wholesale Trade 6,800 8,007 17.75% -1.12% 18.87% 0.53 0.64Retail Trade 39,395 33,637 -14.62% -3.04% -11.58% 1.04 0.94Transportation 3,634 4,584 26.14% 0.39% 25.75% 0.32 0.41Information 9,266 5,224 -43.62% -17.01% -26.61% 1.11 0.77Finance and Insurance 12,756 14,673 15.03% 20.84% -5.81% 0.79 0.77Real Estate 7,636 9,184 20.27% 35.81% -15.54% 0.67 0.60Professional and Technical 13,387 14,836 10.82% 15.15% -4.32% 0.63 0.62Management 2,015 1,373 -31.86% 9.87% -41.73% 0.55 0.35Administrative and Waste 11,403 12,756 11.87% 3.49% 8.38% 0.57 0.63Education 3,324 3,577 7.61% 29.94% -22.33% 0.53 0.45Health Care 27,128 28,769 6.05% 23.18% -17.13% 0.86 0.76Arts and Entertainment 4,045 4,690 15.95% 20.75% -4.81% 0.62 0.61Accommodation and Food Service 18,012 22,376 24.23% 11.08% 13.14% 0.81 0.92Federal Civilian 6,739 7,975 18.34% 5.50% 12.84% 1.20 1.37Military 12,706 19,234 51.38% 1.01% 50.36% 2.97 4.54State and Local 63,902 64,562 1.03% 7.23% -6.20% 1.69 1.62

Northeast EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Southeast U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 153,222 147,418 -3.79% 5.01% -8.80%Farm 12,769 10,806 -15.37% -13.99% -1.39% 4.51 4.84Forestry Fishing 170 128 -24.71% 4.34% -29.05% 0.23 0.18Mining 1,403 1,654 17.89% 68.46% -50.57% 1.88 1.44Utilities 11 0 -100.00% -2.53% -97.47% 0.02 0.00Construction 7,479 6,662 -10.92% -3.19% -7.74% 0.82 0.83Manufacturing 25,374 18,781 -25.98% -26.72% 0.74% 1.62 1.79Wholesale Trade 3,581 2,599 -27.42% -1.12% -26.31% 0.62 0.50Retail Trade 15,878 13,966 -12.04% -3.04% -9.00% 0.94 0.93Transportation 1,728 2,443 41.38% 0.39% 40.99% 0.34 0.52Information 2,147 1,373 -36.05% -17.01% -19.04% 0.57 0.48Finance and Insurance 3,528 4,109 16.47% 20.84% -4.37% 0.49 0.51Real Estate 2,277 2,442 7.25% 35.81% -28.57% 0.44 0.38Professional and Technical 2,440 2,091 -14.30% 15.15% -29.45% 0.26 0.21Management 233 520 123.18% 9.87% 113.31% 0.14 0.31Administrative and Waste 4,080 4,655 14.09% 3.49% 10.61% 0.46 0.55Education 323 249 -22.91% 29.94% -52.85% 0.12 0.07Health Care 7,248 4,969 -31.44% 23.18% -54.63% 0.51 0.31Arts and Entertainment 1,217 1,432 17.67% 20.75% -3.09% 0.42 0.44Accommodation and Food Service 7,171 8,312 15.91% 11.08% 4.83% 0.72 0.82Federal Civilian 1,138 1,014 -10.90% 5.50% -16.39% 0.45 0.42Military 1,220 1,051 -13.85% 1.01% -14.87% 0.64 0.59State and Local 25,750 26,001 0.97% 7.23% -6.26% 1.52 1.56

Southeast EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization

ChangeRelative to U.S.

2001 2009 Kansas City U.S. 2001-2009 2001 2009Total Employment 511,899 545,504 6.56% 5.01% 1.55%Farm 3,751 3,321 -11.46% -13.99% 2.52% 0.40 0.40Forestry Fishing 241 282 17.01% 4.34% 12.67% 0.10 0.11Mining 1,504 2,728 81.38% 68.46% 12.92% 0.60 0.64Utilities 1,614 1,613 -0.06% -2.53% 2.47% 0.85 0.86Construction 29,531 25,645 -13.16% -3.19% -9.97% 0.97 0.86Manufacturing 36,978 34,217 -7.47% -26.72% 19.26% 0.71 0.88Wholesale Trade 26,145 22,040 -15.70% -1.12% -14.59% 1.36 1.14Retail Trade 52,899 52,034 -1.64% -3.04% 1.40% 0.94 0.94Transportation 22,634 20,741 -8.36% 0.39% -8.75% 1.34 1.20Information 30,535 21,541 -29.45% -17.01% -12.45% 2.44 2.04Finance and Insurance 30,480 40,742 33.67% 20.84% 12.83% 1.26 1.38Real Estate 18,219 23,232 27.52% 35.81% -8.30% 1.06 0.98Professional and Technical 38,616 46,683 20.89% 15.15% 5.74% 1.22 1.26Management 4,161 5,978 43.67% 9.87% 33.80% 0.75 0.97Administrative and Waste 32,894 38,217 16.18% 3.49% 12.70% 1.11 1.23Education 6,051 9,077 50.01% 29.94% 20.06% 0.65 0.74Health Care 39,751 57,074 43.58% 23.18% 20.40% 0.84 0.97Arts and Entertainment 8,860 10,441 17.84% 20.75% -2.91% 0.91 0.87Accommodation and Food Service 29,230 31,302 7.09% 11.08% -4.00% 0.87 0.83Federal Civilian 9,494 7,964 -16.12% 5.50% -21.61% 1.12 0.88Military 6,253 6,456 3.25% 1.01% 2.23% 0.98 0.98State and Local 44,311 51,222 15.60% 7.23% 8.37% 0.78 0.83

Kansas City EmploymentChange

in EmploymentLocationQuotient

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Location quotients greater than or equal to 1.20 indicate specialization