CRE Conference – Seattle 2010 Conquering the Divide.

CRE Conference – Seattle 2010

Conqueringthe

Divide


PRESENTERS

Ken Riggs, RERC ModeratorDon Guarino, AEGON PanelistMarc Thompson, Bank of the West PanelistJames Curtis, Bristol Group Panelist


Donald Guarino, CREVP of Valuation and ResearchAEGON USA Realty Advisors

City State Reduction # DealsHouston TX -45% 98Dallas TX -52% 59Las Vegas NV -50% 57Phoenix AZ -52% 49Columbus OH -46% 38Orlando FL -49% 36Atlanta GA -51% 27Tallahassee FL -43% 26Memphis TN -52% 25Detroit MI -63% 23Cincinnati OH -43% 22Fort Worth TX -49% 22Cleveland OH -52% 21Mesa AZ -50% 20Tampa FL -56% 20Indianapolis IN -49% 19Brooklyn NY -43% 19Tucson AZ -54% 19Chicago IL -51% 18San Antonio TX -40% 18Irving TX -48% 17Colorado Springs CO -49% 17Richmond VA -47% 16Fort Myers FL -59% 16

Type

Appraisal Reduction

(Trepp)

CPPI Peak to Trough

(MIT/RCA)

Realized Loss(Trepp)

Office 51% -36% -33%Apartment 46% -40% -64%Retail 52% -29% -41%Hotel 58% N/A -62%Industrial 52% -37% -22%

CPPI is a same-property price change index based on data fromReal Capital Analytics, Inc compiled by MIT Center for Real Estate.

Appraisal Reduction and Realized Loss data compiled from Trepp.


CMBS Real Estate Price Declines


Marc Thompson, CRESenior VP and Manager

Bank of the West


Income Property Debt Loss Risk has a 53% Higher Probability of Delinquency than S&L Crises 87 to 97

Prepared by: Marc R. Thompson, CRE, CCIM, FRICS

CRE Conference – Seattle 2010Accum ADLPR (Debt Loss) for Residential Risk

was 42% in 2007 (Highest Since 1930’s)

Prepared by: Marc R. Thompson, CRE, CCIM, FRICS


James Curtis, CREManaging Partner

Bristol Group


Source: Deutsche Bank, Intex, Trepp

CRE Conference – Seattle 2010Cap Rate and Cost of Capital Matrix Bristol Group, Inc.


Conqueringthe

Divide

Questions?

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CRE Conference – Seattle 2010 Conquering the Divide.

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