CPT Micah Baker Mr. John Agoglia CPT Rob Snyder CW3 Chad Machiela

LESS WITH LESS IN VSOUNCLASSIFIED // FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO

To familiarize attendees with the need to determine sources of instability within a village and apply economic development activities that are relevant to local communities and enduring in nature.

CPT Micah BakerMr. John AgogliaCPT Rob SnyderCW3 Chad Machiela

PURPOSE



Terminal Learning ObjectivesTLO #1: Attendees familiar with how CERP and local SOF

economic development activities were not conducive to long term stability.

TLO #2: Attendees familiar with the lessons learned from past CERP and economic development and familiar with the recommended principles of CERP and economic development within VSO, while conducting VSO in transition and beyond.

TLO #3: Attendees familiar with how the District Stability Framework (DSF) can assist SOF in determining Sources of Instability (SOIs), create tactical design to address the SOI’s, used for coordinating civilian development support.



Terminal Learning ObjectivesTLO #4: Attendees familiar with how to leverage DSF training in

PMT.TLO #5: Attendees familiar with how to use Micro-Grants in

support of VSO economic development. TLO #6: Attendees familiar with a Micro-Grant vignette that

demonstrates how micro-grants can be applied within VSO.TLO #7: Attendees familiar with how NPS Core Lab Methodology

can assist in mapping key human terrain and achieving key stability effects.



Development as a Source of InstabilityAmerican counterinsurgency efforts have been based on three

basic principles since the 1960’s – clear, hold, and build.

In the build phase, Americans tend to do what they have always done best: build huge infrastructure projects.- Some success, but overall failure.

The faulty application of development, expectation management, and project management fuels instability.- Wrong solution to the right problem.



Wrong solutions to the correct problems:Misunderstood and unused technology.Paying for projects that communities were traditionally

responsible for.Wasting resources on large projects with little to no payoff.Pushing for projects not needed.Lack of oversight for projects.

Development as a Source of Instability



Correct solutions to the correct problems:Proposals and procedures are mutually consistent.Must have thorough knowledge of community values.Consider the whole community.Stated in terms understandable to community.Community must be active partner.Project should begin with community resources.Earn the respect of the community.Don’t be indispensable in the process.Coordination is essential when multiple agencies involved.

- Ward Goodenough, Cooperation in Change, 1963

Development to Address Instability

CTC-A

Why a District Stability Framework ?

• There is no standard assessment & planning process across stabilization actors

• Isolated planning results in COIN actors focusing on core competencies not stability

• There is no standardized method for monitoring impact of activities towards stability goals

• Sources of stability are not reinforced• Sources of instability are often not targeted • The local population is often not the focal point

CTC-A

COIN as a Stability Operation

• As a counterinsurgent, what is your plan to defeat:– Tribal violence– Sectarian violence– Criminal violence

• These are symptoms of instability, not insurgency

CTC-A

Sources of Instability

Sources of instability are local factors that:1. Decrease support for GIRoA2. Increase support for Anti-Government Elements (AGEs)3. Disrupt the normal functioning of society

CTC-A

A joint civil-military process developed by USAID-OTI (Office of Transition Initiatives) and the COIN Training Center-Afghanistan.

Provides the common inter-agency program management framework, language, method and tools that enables unity of effort and coordination.

Is optimized for tactical commanders and planners, field grade military officers and senior enlisted personnel, agency field program officers and GIRoA officials who plan, design and implement activities at district level.

District Stability Framework

CTC-A

Introduction to the District Stability Framework (DSF)

Situational Awareness

Analysis

Design

Monitoring & Evaluation

CTC-A

ASCOPE/PMESII

Cultural Matrix

Local Perceptions

Factors Matrix

SOI Analysis

Tactical Stability

Matrix –Pt1

Tactical Stability

Matrix –Pt2

Activity Design

W’sheet

M &E Matrix

Stability Indicators

DSF Roadmap

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ANALYSIS DESIGN MONITORING &

EVALUATION

Sync Matrix

CTC-A

Situational AwarenessFour Filters

1) Operating Environment ASCOPE/PMESII

2) Cultural Environment Cultural Matrix

3) Local Perceptions Perception Data

4) Stability/Instability Dynamics Factors Matrix

CTC-A

Analysis

1) Identify SOIs SOI Analysis Matrix

2) Identify Causes Tactical Stability Matrix

3) Develop Objective Tactical Stability Matrix

4) Determine Impact Indicators and Data Sources Tactical Stability Matrix

CTC-A

Causes

• To identify systemic causes, ask yourself: What circumstances led to community perceptions? What circumstances allow the SOI to continue? What conditions prevent the SOI from being addressed?

CTC-A

Design

1) Design Activities Tactical Stability Matrix & Activity Design Worksheet

2) Identify Output Indicators and Data Sources Tactical Stability Matrix

3) Synchronize Activities Synchronization Matrix

CTC-A

Monitoring & Evaluation

1) Monitor and Evaluate Output M&E Matrix

2) Monitor and Evaluate Impact Against the Objective and

Systemic CausesM&E Matrix

3) Monitor and Evaluate Overall Stability Stability Indicators

CTC-A

Impact vs. OutputImpactHow will I know if the proper change in the environment has been achieved?

OutputHow can I confirm that the proposed activity is progressing or completed?

Increased presence of police in a village Number of police trained

Increased public use of the road Number of road miles improved

Increased production of licit crops Number of crop substitution shuras held

Increased number of girls being educated Number of schools built for girls

CTC-A

Overall Stability Indicators

1. District Government Recognition

2. Civilian Security3. Bazaar Activity4. ANSF Presence5. Freedom of Movement6. Perception of Governance7. Perception of Security

CTC-A

Questions/Contact

John AgogliaE-mail– [email protected]

Cell PH# 703-314-3683Office PH# 703-504-2117

mailto:[email protected]



UTILIZE LOCAL WORKERS FACILITATE A SHURA

ASK AFGHANS WHAT THEY NEED DON’T FORCE PROJECTS



Development Lessons LearnedLearn and understand how the village solves problems.

Utilize projects to gain trust and demonstrate commitment to the Village.

Understand the human terrain.

Make sure all tribes in a village are receiving a benefit from projects (or be intentional if you choose to exclude a tribe).



Development Lessons LearnedClearly identify desired second and third order effects of all

projects.

All projects identified, nominated, planned, resourced, supervised, and executed by locals under the supervision of locals.

Long term sustainability.

Help facilitate Afghan solutions.



Development Lessons LearnedMake sure you plan for economic development and understand

the numerous resources available to help facilitate development.

Be creative in helping to build human capital in your area.

Regularly assess your development activities and adjust as required to maximize your desired effects.



QUESTIONS?CPT Rob Snyder

[email protected]




CERP Micro-Grants InSupport of VSO



Micro-Grant Process:Step-by-Step (1 of 2)

• Identify village business owner/service provider.

• Complete application (MAAWS-A, pg. 153). Pay attention to detail to reduce delays in legal review and funding.

• Submit to SOTF S9 to process for legal review, Commander’s application approval, PR&C submission, entry into CIDNE, and Commander’s approval for ADR.

• SOTF S9 forwards complete and approved packets to CJSOTF-A J9 CERP Accountant for QA and funding.



Micro-Grant Process:Step-by-Step (2 of 2)

• Once funding is obligated, SOTF S9 provides team with funded PR&C. The team takes the PR&C and the approved application to the Disbursing Office to receive funds.

• Utilize SOTF S9 or a trusted agent to purchase goods with Micro-Grant funds if possible. Handing over cash should generally not be the first course of action.

• Supervise business or service to ensure intent is being met. Update CIDNE accordingly.

• Clear funds like all other CERP or Bulk Fund draws.



Micro-Grant Vignette: South

A SOF Team utilized the services of a local diesel mechanic to repair a well pump at the embed site. They learned that he had owned a shop, but INS had destroyed it and stolen his tools and equipment. The mechanic was a supporter of VSO and GIRoA. The team suggested he ask the DG for assistance in re-building his mechanic shop. After the District Development Shura vouched for his character, a Micro-Grant Application was completed and submitted to the SOTF. After approval, a trusted agent was sent to the city to procure a list of tools and equipment for the shop in accordance with the amount of the grant. As a condition of receiving the grant, the mechanic had to prepare the shop and ensure it was secure before he could receive the goods. Once up and running, the mechanic was able to provide a community service and earn a living for his family.



Micro-Grant Vignette: Southeast

A SOF Team damaged a man’s shop during a clearing operation. During discussions with the owner and village elders regarding compensation, the team determined this could be used as an opportunity to build relations in an area planned for VSO expansion. The team determined that helping the man repair his shop and re-stock it with merchandise was the preferred COA for two reasons. First, paying the owner cash for battle damage did not guarantee he would resume business in the community, thereby damaging the local economy. Second, working through the Micro-Grant process allowed the team to develop a positive relationship with village leadership and residents, who later stated that they would support VSO and ALP.



Farmers’ CooperativeMicro-Grants

SOTF-WBala Baluk, Pusht-e Rod, Khake

Safed Districts



CERP Micro-Grants DefinedThe Micro-Grant program expands the flexibility of CERP and

authorizes commanders to provide cash, equipment, tools, or other material support to small businesses lacking available credit or financial resources.

- MAAWS-A, Chapter 9, Micro-Grants

Why? It’s all targetingYou can’t hit what you can’t see



Afghanistan’s wheat price crisis represents a strategic opportunity for CFSOCC-A to make Village Stability Operations (VSO) more relevant to its target population. Unless rural Afghans are provided an alternative, the wheat crisis will force many families into deep debt bondage to powerbrokers and narco-traffickers who often demand poppy cultivation as a condition of lending.

CFSOCC-A J2 Production Wheat Price Rise Presents VSO Opportunity

With the lack of water for our fields, our crops did not produce much. But now is the time to begin cultivating our fields and we are lacking supply of seeds that we were promised to plant in our fields. The government keeps talking about producing food supplies in our fields but without the seeds to plant, we have nothing.

Atmospheric Report 17OCT11

Sources of Instability



As an additional argument to encourage development of community-based seed production cooperatives, CAT 652 conducted a KLE with the emerging leadership of Sar Puzeh Village, to discuss the Wheat Seed Distribution Program. Despite earlier projections that the program would increase Sar Puzeh support for GoA and Afghan-run programs, the program is currently angering residents due to its susceptibility to corruption. A large group of seed recipients, from both of the major sub-tribes in Sar Puzeh, stated that they were unable to get seeds because a district government leader named Haji Bazid is controlling the allocation of seeds, distributing only to members of a corrupt patronage network.

VSCC-W SITREP 30OCT11

GOA wheat seed distribution program decreases perception of effective governance:• Encourages dependence upon government handouts rather than self-supporting

communities• Seeds generally go to landowners living in cities, rather than to farmers sharecropping

in the villages, resulting in seeds sold in the bazaar for profit• PGOV,DGOV,PCOP,DCOP and other officials find it difficult to refuse the temptation to

direct distribution to friends and other selected community members rather than those most in need. The Taliban then point to this graft as typical for the Afghan Government

• Areas do not receive enough seeds to satisfy all requirements• Transportation costs overwhelm poorer provincial offices, lessening available seeds



DesignCooperation in Change, An Anthropological

Approach to Community DevelopmentWant assessmentNeed assessment

Felt needObserved need*

Why? It’s all targeting.



DSF Design 1) Design Activities Tactical Stability Matrix & Activity

Design Worksheet

2) Identify Output Indicators and Data Sources Tactical Stability Matrix

3) Synchronize Activities Synchronization Matrix



The National Grange of the Patrons of Husbandry• Formed in the 1860s as an educational and social organization• Transformed into a political organization as the voting power

increased enough to apply pressure to force governmental assistance

• Cooperative purchasing lowered prices for equipment• Educational component increased efficiency• Cooperative storage held crops viable longer for optimum

sale prices• Pooling of savings protected members from mercenary

lenders



SOTF-W elements provided fertilizer, training, and high-resistance wheat seed to farmers selected by the Khake Safed, Bala Baluk, and Pusht-e Rod Farmers’ Cooperatives for establishment of seed production farms. These farmers agreed to each set aside one jerib of land for seed production rather than wheat cultivation, and to sell those seeds to their fellow cooperative members at discounted prices

KEY ELEMENTS:•Farmers were selected by their peers and fellow members of their cooperatives, to increase normative pressure to participate in accordance with the agreements•Participation was made formally normative. Selected farmers participated in public shuras and attended training as prerequisites to grant issue•Participating farmers agreed to be overseen by the district DAIL, to prevent default and to tie community efforts to district governance•Materials were purchased by the DAIL, assisted by ISAF advisors to ensure fair prices. Farmers were issued necessary seeds and fertilizer, not cash, to prevent graft•Training and issue were public events to ensure transparency and increase normative pressure to produce the seeds as agreed upon rather than default•Farmers submitted “applications” which provided initial social mapping of networks directly influenced through the program.•Sustainment training is provided via MISO radio broadcasts



INPUTS:

SeedMetric Ton $720.00DAP Fertilizer50 Kilo Bag $68.00Urea Fertilizer50 Kilo Bag $55.00Seed cleaning & InoculantsTon $80.00Seed quality wheatKilo $0.53

$4,900 per district

OUTPUTS:

•Cohesive subgroups of farmers beholden to their communities, resistant to both Taliban and corrupt government officials through their self-sufficiency and bloc influence

•Communities with access to wheat seed produced by their selected peers, free from negative influence of current GOA program

•Sociocultural maps of pro-GOA community members, identified networks to leverage in support of local governance

•Increased perception of effective district governance, as DAIL’s act as honest brokers to monitor performance

•Vehicle for additional agricultural training

•Radio broadcasts providing sustainment training benefit all community members and further advertise program (building legitimacy and increasing normative pressure to perform)



Farmers' Cooperative Microgrant Application First Name: Application

Date:

Middle Name: Gender:

Last Name: Date of Birth:

Maiden/Tribal Name: Place of Birth:

Nickname/Alias: Ethnicity:

Nationality: Hair Color:

Passport #: Eye Color:

Passport Country: Height (cm):

Passport Issue Date: Weight (kg):

Passport Exp Date: Scars/

Disfigurements:

Marital Status: Tattoos:

Spouse's Tribe: Cell Phone:

Taskera #: Email Address:

VEHICLES

Make Model Year Color Plate #

N/A

WEAPONS

Type Total Serial Purchase Date Current Location of Weapon

ACTIVE FARMING LIST (RELATIVES)List relatives that will assist you in developing this seed production farm

Full Name Father's Name Village Occupation Cellphone

ACTIVE FARMING LIST (FRIENDS & NEIGHBORS)List friends or neighbors (not related to you) that will assist you in developing this farm


CUSTOMER LIST (BUSINESS)Who will be the primary customer base for your seed production farm?




Members of the Farah Farmers’ Cooperatives Selected to Receive Micro-

Grants

Tribal Ties of Members of the Farah Farmers’ Cooperatives Selected to

Receive Micro-Grants

Potential bridges between groups



Community Network Directly Influenced by the Farah Farmers’ Cooperative

Microgrants

SNA assists the commander by rapidly identifying high value influence nodes to maximize effective

employment of resources, in this case taking advantage of the heavy Nurzai demographic,

targeting members with multiple solidarity influence (secondary association through marriage, business,

and governance)



Correct solutions to the correct problems:Proposals and procedures are mutually consistent.Must have thorough knowledge of community values.Consider the whole community.Stated in terms understandable to community.Community must be active partner.Project should begin with community resources.Earn the respect of the community.Don’t be indispensable in the process.Coordination is essential when multiple agencies involved.

- Ward Goodenough, Cooperation and Change, 1963

Development to Address Instability



Further [email protected]

Naval Postgraduate School, Common Operating Research Environment (CORE) Laboratory, Enabler Expo

Cooperation in Change: An Anthropological Approach to Community Development. Ward Goodenough. Russell Sage Foundation, 1963.

Software:ORA, CASOS, Dr. Kathleen Carley (free download)UCINET, Harvard Analytics (shareware)Pajek, (free download)




www.stabilityinstitute.com

Contact information:[email protected](910) 396-1664

http://www.stabilityinstitute.com/


CPT Micah Baker Mr. John Agoglia CPT Rob Snyder CW3 Chad Machiela

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Transcript of CPT Micah Baker Mr. John Agoglia CPT Rob Snyder CW3 Chad Machiela