COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing
Transcript of COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing
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Science based forecasts for the short- and long-termCOVID-19 Vaccine Briefing
29th June 2021Prepared on behalf of The WTO
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About Airfinity
Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working for some of the world’s largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, Airfinity has established itself as an authoritative provider of predictive insights and accurate, independent information.
We have built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform.
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Vaccine production has scaled up quicklyObserved vaccine deliveries to date
Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021 3
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Vaccine production now greater than 3.3 billion, showing current growth rate of more than a billion doses per monthGlobal cumulative vaccine production over the last month
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314 million doses produced in the last week
Over 1 billion doses have been produced in the last month
Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021
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Vaccine production could exceed 11 billion in 2021, as more vaccines come through the pipelineVaccine production forecast split by candidate
Forecasted on 28/06/2021
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289,973,000246,462,000
263,724,000
161,746,000
5,824,622,000
2,856,484,000
2,137,408,000
30/09/2021
2,179,275,000
3,481,228,000
959,204,000
667,270,000
30/11/2021 31/12/2021
1,576,923,000
10,035,069,000
8,481,562,000
7,063,151,000
31/07/2021
4,621,217,000
11,856,354,000
31/08/2021 31/10/202130/06/2021
1,886,530,000
517,885,000
31/05/2021
CanSino
Sinovac
Pfizer/BioNTech
Bharat
Sinopharm
AstraZeneca
Moderna
J&J
Novavax
Sputnik V
Other
Other vaccines include: (full list in appendix)
COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center)
FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells )
INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma)LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus)
MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax)NasoVAX (Altimmune)
QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems)S-268019 (UMN Pharma)
SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax)UB-612 (Covaxx)
ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei)Vaccine (Medicago/GSK)
Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK)EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)
VLA2001 (Dynavax/Valneva)ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila)
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Map of agreed production sites for COVID vaccines. Bubble sizes indicate volume
Global drug substance production sites for vaccines
The map shows production sites where there is known quantities of drug substance. If fill/finish is at the same site as drug substance production, they are included here
83 sites producing vaccine drug substance
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Map of agreed production sites (including fill & finish) for COVID vaccines colour coded by in-house or contracted facilities
Globally, there are many more CDMOs than in-house production facilities for COVID vaccines
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Forecasted supply of vaccines split by contract or own sites
More production forecasted to come from own sites compared to contract production
Forecasted on 28/06/2021
54,492,574 110,416,457219,447,233
391,194,209460,631,227 697,933,503
1,034,705,6071,415,164,045 3,239,394,113
636,004,197 940,343,411
Dec-21Jul-21Mar-21
4,015,154,466
7,961,929,710
3,141,211,2382,533,993,397
Oct-21Feb-21
1,923,458,538
Aug-21
3,894,424,290
Jan-21
4,828,786,031
May-21Apr-21
1,272,076,3502,553,611,5162,057,006,409
Sep-21 Nov-21
1,641,649,045
6,785,817,381
5,770,960,906
Jun-21
Contract productionProduction from own sites
% production at own sites 89% 86% 83% 78% 75% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67%
% contract production 11% 14% 17% 22% 25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33%
For facilities where known
The USA headquarters many companies that produce subcomponents
These are preliminary numbers and Airfinity is conducting ongoing research.
Equipment:Different equipment are required for vaccine production, including those required in manufacturing and storage: E.g. bioreactors and fridges/freezers.
Chemicals:To produce vaccines, various chemicals are required. These include various buffers throughout the process, and other chemicals such as lipids which are important for the delivery of mRNA vaccines.
Consumables:In addition to large laboratory equipment required to produce vaccines, various items are required for the manufacturing, storage and administering of vaccines. E.g. glass vials, syringes, needles.
Process:Vaccines need to be packaged correctly for distribution. For mRNA vaccines, assembly of the mRNA into lipid nanoparticles is essential. Finally, all vaccines need to be filled into glass vials for distribution.
Some key subcomponents and materials for vaccine supply chains:
39.1%
21.7%
8.7%
4.3%
8.7%
8.7%
JapanItaly
4.3%
Switzerland
GermanyNetherlands
UK
Taiwan
4.3%
USA
Bioreactor suppliers (HQ)
12.5%
12.5%
37.5%
25.0%
12.5%
Germany
Canada
UK
USA
Switzerland
Lipid suppliers (HQ)
28.6%
28.6%
14.3%
14.3%
14.3%
India
Italy
Germany
Japan
USA
Glass Vials Suppliers (HQ) Syringes and needles suppliers (HQ)
11.1%
11.1%
33.3%11.1%
22.2%
11.1%
UK
Japan
Germany
South Korea
USA
China
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Comparison of Airfinity forecasts (made in early February) vs observed production up until the end of June
Airfinity forecasts have been realistic to observed production
Airfinity forecast generated in February 2021 10
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Contents
Macro Overview: Key changes this week 1
Production forecast overview
Appendix
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Full list of vaccines included in supply and production models
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Supply Production
CVnCoV (Curevac) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax) CVnCoV (Curevac) AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes)
Ad26COVS1 (J&J) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute) Ad26COVS1 (J&J)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells )
mRNA-1273 (Moderna) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei)AZD1222 (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm)
AZD1222 (University of Oxford/AstraZeneca) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax)
BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center) BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute)
NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)
Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm)
SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) UB-612 (Covaxx) SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax)CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center)
Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino) Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma)
CoronaVac (Sinovac)QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems) CoronaVac (Sinovac) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax)
IBIO-200 (iBio) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV) IBIO-200 (iBio) UB-612 (Covaxx)
LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino)
hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest)mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel Institute for Biological Research) hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest)
QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems)
NasoVAX (Altimmune) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) NasoVAX (Altimmune) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV)
AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila)GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) S-268019 (UMN Pharma)
mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel Institute for Biological Research)
ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)
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MORE INFORMATION
Rasmus Bech Hansen, Co-founder and CEO
Mitesh Chainani, Enterprise Account Director
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Disclaimer and Copyright Notice
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Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working with some of the world’s largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, it has established itself as an authoritative provider of new predictive insights and accurate independent information.
Airfinity has built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform.
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“Airfinity has been instrumental in our country’s COVID response”
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