COVID-19 PUTTING THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE

Arun Chockalingam, MS, PhD, FACC

Professor of Epidemiology, Medicine & Global Health, U of T

Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of NCD (www.ijncd.org)

SVBF, Toronto March 22, 2020

Disclaimer

• None of us in this panel are experts on COVID-19

• We bring to you RELIABLE information

• Fear itself is what we need to Fear during this uncertain time

ThirukkuraL 423

• எப்பபொருள்யொரய்ொரவ்ொய்க் ககட்பினும்அப்பபொருள்பமய்ப்பபொருள்கொண்பதறிவு

• Whatever whoever may say, listen to it, and Wisdom is to comprehend the true meaning of it.

• WHAT WE NEED IS EVIDENCE BASED INFORMATION

Thiruvalluvar: Tamil Poet & Philosopher. Author of ThirukkuraL; 1,330 couplets. Born: 350 AD in Tamilnadu, India

EPIDEMIC

• An epidemic is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time.

• a temporary prevalence of a disease.

• a rapid spread or increase in the occurrence of something.

• For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in excess of 15 cases per 100,000 people for two consecutive weeks is considered an epidemic.

PANDEMIC• A disease epidemic that has spread across a large region, for instance

multiple continents, or worldwide.

WHAT IS NOT PANDEMIC:

• A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic.

• Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu.

PREVIOUS PANDEMICS IN THE HISTORY:

Small pox; Tuberculosis;

Black death (75-200 million deaths; in the 14t century)

Recent Pandemics: HIV/AIDS; Influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu)

…………..and NOW: SARS-CORONA VIRUS 2 (COVID-19)

Images of COVID-19

Who is affected by COVID-19

• Everyone is vulnerable – It has no discrimination between• Young & the old

• Rich & poor

• Races

• Religions

• Regions

• BUT MOST VULNERABLES ARE:• Over the age of 65

• With previous health conditions

Most Affected by country (as of March 21st)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-outbreak/

COVID-19 Prevalence in Canada

https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid+19+deaths+in+canada&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=covid+19+deaths+in+canada&sc=1-25&sk=&cvid=F486E225A094423081D5B6DDA11116C5

COVID-19 BY PROVINCE as of March 22nd

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html

Summary & Conclusions• YES, COVID-19 is real and it attributes to unexpected deaths & disability.

• YES, the best way is to cut the chain of this infectious disease pandemics from spreading.

• BUT, we can do our part by observing the advise given to us by government & international authorities.

• BUT we can come out of this pandemic by avoiding FEAR and PANIC.

• TOGETHER, we can succeed like how we survived the previous pandemics.

• LET us be courageous & resilient

THANK YOU நன்றி MERCI धन्यवाद ਤੁਹਾਡਾ ਧੰਨਵਾਦ ಧನ್ಯವಾದಗಳು ధన్యవాదాలు നന്ദി

COVID-19……Name Origin

COrona Virus Infectious Disease - 2019

Herd Immunity• Herd immunity is a phenomenon that

becomes relevant every flu season. • This phenomenon describes the idea that

when enough people in a given community have immunity to a given virus — whether it be influenza or SARS-CoV-2 — then the rest of the population becomes a lot less susceptible to becoming infected.

• As a consequence of herd immunity, the herd effect is the decrease in infection rate in the part of the community that is not immune to the virus.

• Typically, herd immunity arises when a certain percentage of the population becomes vaccinated and controls the spread of a virus.