COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico...COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update A NMDOH,...

1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org

COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update

A NMDOH, Presbyterian, LANL, and SNL PartnershipMay 12, 2020


Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by NM county

NM: 196.9 NM: 241.2


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.10.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

1167.0

65.9175.3

34.886.1

231.4

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

860.5

62.1

153.2

28.063.1

183.2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

May 4, 2020 May 11, 2020


Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population by age group

411.

9

19.7 89

.0

7.7

20.5

1249

.0

70.1 18

7.5

35.7 11

8.8

1558

.7

78.5 18

4.0

40.7 12

5.5

1506

.1

80.0 19

2.1

47.6

58.5

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest

Case

s pe

r 100

,000

Pop

ulat

ion

New Mexico Health Region

Age 0-14

Age 15-44

Age 45-64

Age 65 and Over

Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.11.2020 at 8:38 AM, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.


Projected doubling time

Metro, 7.7

Northeast, 10.5

Northwest, 5.9

Southeast, 11.3

Southwest, 9.7

New Mexico, 6.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

4/11

/202

0

4/12

/202

0

4/13

/202

0

4/14

/202

0

4/15

/202

0

4/16

/202

0

4/17

/202

0

4/18

/202

0

4/19

/202

0

4/20

/202

0

4/21

/202

0

4/22

/202

0

4/23

/202

0

4/24

/202

0

4/25

/202

0

4/26

/202

0

4/27

/202

0

4/28

/202

0

4/29

/202

0

4/30

/202

0

5/1/

2020

5/2/

2020

5/3/

2020

5/4/

2020

5/5/

2020

5/6/

2020

Num

ber o

f Day

s fo

r Cas

e Co

unt t

o D

oubl

e

Projected Doubling Time Based on Date of Test Specimen Collection and Cumulative Average Rate of Increase.Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.


Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population

159.5

9.217.0

4.411.8

29.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico

Hosp

italiz

atio

ns p

er 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n


Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.11.2020 at 8:38 AM, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.


COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalized cases by county per 100,000 population

Note: 2 cases excluded due to missing county information

NM-EDSS on 5/8/2020 at 8:23 AM


COVID-19 age-specific hospitalization rates per 100,000 population

Source: NM Indicator-Based Information System (IBIS) was used for 2018 population estimates for each age group



COVID-19 age-adjusted hospitalization rate by race/ethnicity per 100,000 population

Note:17 hospitalized cases excluded due to missing race information1 hospitalized case was excluded because it was “Other Race” and there is no population estimate for “Other Race” in NM-IBIS

Race/ethnicity Age-adjusted rate per 100,000 population

American Indian or Alaska Native 213.8

Asian 5.4

Black or African American 29.1

Hispanic or Latino 10.2

White 7.1



COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use


Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population

Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 5.10.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.

22.6

0.0

3.2

0.5 1.2

7.1

0

5

10

15

20

25


Dea

ths

per 1

00,0

00 P

opul

atio

n (a

ge-a

djus

ted)



Number of COVID-19 crude mortality rate by age group

2.716.0

36.3

147.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

<65 65-74 75-84 85+

# D

eath

s pe

r 100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

Age group (years)


Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death

Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 5.10.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.

4.5

0.5

4.4

2.9

1.9

4.1

0

1

2

3

4

5


Perc

enta

ge o

f Cas

es R

esul

ting

in D

eath



COVID-19 Case-fatality rates (CFR) by age group

1.2%

8.4%

17.0%

28.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<65 65-74 75-84 85+

Perc

enta

ge


COVID-19 Case-fatality rates (CFR) by race/ethnicity

3.4%

2.1%

1.4%

3.0%

8.4%

1.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

AIAN Asian/NHOPI Black/AfAm Hispanic White Other/Unknown

Perc

enta

ge


Key points• Prevalence rates have increased across all regions since last week

• Closely monitor the SW region in the coming weeks

• Regionally, NW’s prevalence rates are the highest followed by Metro and SW• With exception of NW region, the prevalence rates are similar from 15-44+ age groups, but the 15-44

age group may need to be further sub-grouped

• Shortest doubling times reflect high prevalence rates in the NW and Metro regions and longest doubling times are in the SE and NE regions

• Hospitalization rate is highest in NW region• Counties in the NW region have the highest number of hospitalized cases per 100,000 population• Hospitalized case rates >50 per 100,000 in age groups >55 years old• AI/AN have highest rate of hospitalized cases followed by Black or African American and Hispanic or

Latino• Ventilator use rate has been steady at ~25% of hospitalized cases since mid-April

• Mortality rate is highest in NW region• Overall, age group 85+ is highest

• Case fatality rate (CFR)• NW and Metro regions have the highest and similar CFRs • Highest in age group 85+• Highest in White race/ethnicity group followed by AI/AN


COVID-19 in New Mexico: modeling update

As of May 5 and May 12, 2020Epidemiology & Response Division

Improvements in the reduction of COVID has plateaued

Updated calculation in R_effective pushed back to retrospective graphing

• Statewide R_effective improvements have now plateaued.

• Additional actions will be necessary to reduce transmission of COVID-19.

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 12, 2020.

Simulating reductions in social distancing

Scenario 2• Social distancing begins May 20th causing NM

to lose 20% of the improvements gained since April 1st in control over COVID

• Relaxation stays for 60 days then we reinstitute current social distancing

• NOTE: the 20% loss is an illustration, actual changes will be measured to understand effect

Scenario 1• No relaxation in social distancing• Current R_effective remain constant with no

further improvements

Implications • Peak in simultaneous patients in ICUs increases by

50% and duration of surge more than doubles• This estimate is illustrative only. We will observe

any actual changes in the effective rate of to determine impact changing social distancing policies and practices.

Continue Current Social Distancing Reduction In Social Distancing

Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services - May 12, 2020.

Regional Transmission above target

Northeast R_effective1.05

Central R_effective1.09

Southeast R_effective 1.12

SouthwestR_effective 1.33

NorthwestR_effective 1.20 Low Level Endemic

1-1.1

Approaching Low Level Endemic1.11-1.15

Requiring further mitigation >1.15

Key

COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico...COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic Update A NMDOH,...

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