COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico...1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 •...
Transcript of COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico...1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 •...
![Page 1: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico...1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org New Mexico has the 33 rd](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062604/5fc19d468c120020342f1329/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateAugust 11, 2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 33rd highest prevalence in the United States
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.9.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
31.4
7.1
9.5
20.0
12.013.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35The NW Region 7-day rate includes the recent outbreak in Cibola County Correctional Center.
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 3
7.34.8 5.6
19.4
11.1
8.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 9*
*Excludes cases in state and federal corrections and detention centers
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has decreased to 0.7.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 10, 2020.
0.7
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – August 11, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.7↓
MetroR_effective 0.6↓
Southeast R_effective 1.0 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 0.8 ↑
NorthwestR_effective 0.2 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 10, 2020.
As of August 3, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.7 [0.3, 1.2]
Metro 0.6 [0.0, 1.4]
Northeast 0.7 [0.0, 2.6]
Northwest 0.2 [0.0, 0.9]
Southeast 1.0 [0.2, 1.9]
Southwest 0.8 [0.0, 1.7]
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
All regions have a relative growth rate less than 0.
↑ Increasing counts
↓ Decreasing case counts
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 10, 2020.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 11, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 11, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 11, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 11, 2020 Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.11.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 11, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Currently the highest percentage of cases are between 25-34 years old (~19%).
Note: Excludes out-of-state cases and cases in state and federal corrections and detention centers
As of August 10, 2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
American Indian/Alaska Native have the highest case rates across all ages compared to other race/ethnicity groups.
Excluding AI/AN, Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino groups are also disproportionately affected across most age groups.
Note: Excludes out-of-state cases and cases in state and federal corrections and detention centers
As of August 10, 2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of August 7, 2020
Hospitalizations have been steadily declining since mid-July. As of 8/10, 21% of patients are on ventilators.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The 45-59 and 60+ year old age groups make up the highest percentages of new hospital admissions each week.
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
As of August 7, 2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New hospital admissions of patients who are Hispanic or Latino, or White are continuing to increase each week. Admissions of AI/AN patients have been steadily decreasing.
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Spike in deaths from 7/19 to 8/1, but decreased last week.
2
9
19
33
43
67 66
60
45 46
3533
31
2023 23
26
44 44
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Reporting through 8/9/2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The trend of increasing mortality with age remains unchanged.
0.0 0.5 7.0 13.1 23.639.6
60.4
140.5
440.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
<18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Dea
ths
per 1
00,0
00 p
opul
atio
nCOVID-19 Mortality Rate by Age Group,
New Mexico
Reporting through 8/9/2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Highest percentage of deaths in the 65+ age groups is observed across all race and ethnicity groups. In AI/AN, Black or African American, and Hispanic or Latino groups, 17-33% of deaths were 45-64 years old.
13%5%
33%
17%21%
9%
20%
33%24%
13%
35%
100%
50% 51%
78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AIAN(n=380)
Asian/NHOPI(n=2)
Black/AfAm(n=6)
Hispanic(n=132)
White(n=165)
Perc
ent o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Race/Ethnicity and Age Group, New Mexico
75+
65-74
45-64
18-44
Reporting through 8/9/2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Minimal changes in case fatality rates by region since last week.
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 8/9. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsCDC age group categories differ from those previously reported, so the age-adjusted rates for NM are not comparable to previously produced rates.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 8.9.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.3%
1.7%
3.5%
1.0%
2.5%
4.2%
3.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
NW NE Metro SE SW NM U.S.
Perc
enta
ge
COVID-19 Age-Adjusted* Case Fatality Rate by Region, New Mexico
Reporting through 8/9/2020; *Adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the increase in daily case counts continues to decline.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of increase in July, hospitalizations are decreasing.
• Deaths: After two large spikes recently, deaths decreased last week.
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico residents has been stable, but this varies by region.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 1.2 days.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 8.31020
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.7
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.0
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.18% ICU 0.12%Vent Rate 55% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.0%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days