COVID-19 Daily Monitoring - Enfermedades Raras
23
Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 20 March 2020 COVID-19 Daily Monitoring Tracking the high frequency data, activity and government measures Highlights Government measures: Local government offered supportive measures regarding employment and consumption. 1) Shanghai rolled out a subsidy plan for companies that were heavily impacted by COVID-19: (i) companies operating during Chinese New Year for virus containment purposes could be subsidized by Rmb1,500/person; (ii) companies in the lodging, catering, entertainment, travel and transportation sectors could receive a subsidy of Rmb800/person; the upper limit per company is Rmb5mn. 2) Jiangxi province introduced measures to boost consumption, which highlighted to (i) distribute travel coupons in the province, (ii) pilot a 2.5-day flexible weekend program starting in 2Q20; the reduced working hours could be replenished by extending other working days; and (iii) offer half-price tickets for 4A&5A-level tourist attractions every Friday afternoon. 3) Jilin lowered the emergency level from Level 2 to Level 3. Activity tracking: March activity has seen broad improvements across most domestic activity indicators, but the high-frequency shipping indicators showed signs of external weakness. 1) MIIT reported that, by March 17, the work resumption rate for SMEs had reached 60%. 2) Housing transaction areas rose 4.6% d/d on March 19, which is 35% below the historical average (Mar 18: 45%). 3) Coal consumption levels moved down by 0.8% d/d on Mar 20, with the gap in daily coal consumption of six major power generators at roughly ~19.8% below the historical average (Mar 19: 18.7%). 4) On the transportation side, the traffic delay index of top-tier cities normalized to historical levels, except in Wuhan (Figures 27-30). Meanwhile, national passenger flow by various transportation methods remained subdued on March 18, which is 63.2% lower than last year (March 17: 63.7%) (Figure 22). 5) Copper prices fell 3.6% on Mar 17 after the 6.6% decline on the previous day. 6) On the consumption side, average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles gradually improved, with the gap to long average at 60% on Mar 15, compared to 70% one week earlier (Figure 31). Also, on Mar 15, knitted fabric sales in China Textile City (the largest fabric trading hub in Asia) came in at 77% below the long-term average (Mar 14: 69%) (Figure 33). 7) The latest data in the J.P. Morgan Big Data Shipping Index (BIDSI) shows a 32.9% d/d increase in imports (-30% on Mar 18), while exports also jumped 23% d/d (-16.5%d/d on Mar 18). Market movement: The CSI 300 index rose 1.8% d/d on March 20; real estate (+3.2%) and consumer staples (+2.7%) outperformed, whereas IT (+0.2%) and telecom (+0.6%) lagged. For offshore equities, Hang Seng Index was up 5% d/d. Stock-wise, SOHO China (+21%) and Kunlun Energy (+17.5%) were best performing MSCI China H-share constituents, while Cosco Shipping Energy (-4%) and SSY Group (-2.8%) underperformed the most. Table 1: COVID-19 worldwide confirmed infected toll World China Japan Korea Singapore US UK Italy France Spain Germany Switzerland Rest of EU Iran Rest of world Latest today 244,601 80,967 924 8,652 345 13,680 2,716 41,035 10,886 17,963 15,320 4,075 13,948 18,407 15,683 18-Mar 191,339 80,928 829 8,413 266 3,536 1,954 31,506 7,652 11,178 7,156 2,650 10,066 16,169 9,036 17-Mar 179,144 80,894 829 8,320 243 3,503 1,547 27,980 6,573 9,191 6,012 2,200 8,397 14,991 8,464 16-Mar 167,541 80,881 814 8,236 243 1,678 1,395 24,747 5,380 7,753 4,838 2,200 7,448 14,991 6,937 15-Mar 153,517 80,860 780 8,162 212 1,678 1,144 21,157 4,469 5,753 3,795 1,359 5,812 12,729 5,607 14-Mar 142,528 80,844 716 8,086 200 1,678 802 17,660 3,640 4,231 3,062 1,125 4,559 11,364 4,561 13-Mar 132,768 80,824 675 7,979 187 1,264 594 15,113 2,860 2,965 2,369 858 3,295 10,075 3,710 12-Mar 125,056 80,813 620 7,869 178 987 460 12,462 2,269 2,140 1,567 645 2,767 9,000 3,279 11-Mar 118,340 80,793 568 7,755 166 696 373 10,149 1,774 1,639 1,296 491 1,841 8,042 2,757 10-Mar 113,722 80,778 514 7,513 160 472 323 9,172 1,402 1,024 1,139 332 1,348 7,161 2,384 9-Mar 109,588 80,754 488 7,382 150 213 277 7,375 1,116 589 1,112 332 1,094 6,566 2,140 8-Mar 105,624 80,735 455 7,134 138 213 210 5,883 706 430 795 264 877 5,823 1,961 7-Mar 101,968 80,695 408 6,767 130 213 167 4,636 613 374 639 209 609 4,747 1,761 6-Mar 98,290 80,651 349 6,284 117 148 118 3,858 420 257 534 86 368 3,513 1,587 Source: WHO, NHC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected].
Transcript of COVID-19 Daily Monitoring - Enfermedades Raras
Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research
20 March 2020
COVID-19 Daily Monitoring
Tracking the high frequency data, activity and government measures
Highlights
Government measures: Local government offered supportive measures regarding employment and consumption. 1)Shanghai rolled out a subsidy plan for companies that were heavily impacted by COVID-19: (i) companies operatingduring Chinese New Year for virus containment purposes could be subsidized by Rmb1,500/person; (ii) companies in thelodging, catering, entertainment, travel and transportation sectors could receive a subsidy of Rmb800/person; the upper limit per company is Rmb5mn. 2) Jiangxi province introduced measures to boost consumption, which highlighted to (i) distribute travel coupons in the province, (ii) pilot a 2.5-day flexible weekend program starting in 2Q20; the reduced working hours could be replenished by extending other working days; and (iii) offer half-price tickets for 4A&5A-level tourist attractions every Friday afternoon. 3) Jilin lowered the emergency level from Level 2 to Level 3.
Activity tracking: March activity has seen broad improvements across most domestic activity indicators, but the high-frequency shipping indicators showed signs of external weakness. 1) MIIT reported that, by March 17, the work resumption rate for SMEs had reached 60%. 2) Housing transaction areas rose 4.6% d/d on March 19, which is 35% below the historical average (Mar 18: 45%). 3) Coal consumption levels moved down by 0.8% d/d on Mar 20, with the gap in daily coal consumption of six major power generators at roughly ~19.8% below the historical average (Mar 19: 18.7%). 4) On the transportation side, the traffic delay index of top-tier cities normalized to historical levels, except in Wuhan (Figures 27-30). Meanwhile, national passenger flow by various transportation methods remained subdued on March 18, which is 63.2% lower than last year (March 17: 63.7%) (Figure 22). 5) Copper prices fell 3.6% on Mar 17 after the 6.6% decline on the previous day. 6) On the consumption side, average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles gradually improved, with the gap to long average at 60% on Mar 15, compared to 70% one week earlier (Figure 31). Also, on Mar 15, knitted fabric sales in China Textile City (the largest fabric trading hub in Asia) came in at 77% below the long-term average (Mar 14: 69%) (Figure 33). 7) The latest data in the J.P. Morgan Big Data Shipping Index (BIDSI) shows a 32.9% d/d increase in imports (-30% on Mar 18), while exports also jumped 23% d/d (-16.5%d/d on Mar 18).
Market movement: The CSI 300 index rose 1.8% d/d on March 20; real estate (+3.2%) and consumer staples (+2.7%)outperformed, whereas IT (+0.2%) and telecom (+0.6%) lagged. For offshore equities, Hang Seng Index was up 5%d/d. Stock-wise, SOHO China (+21%) and Kunlun Energy (+17.5%) were best performing MSCI China H-share constituents, while Cosco Shipping Energy (-4%) and SSY Group (-2.8%) underperformed the most.
Table 1: COVID-19 worldwide confirmed infected toll
World China Japan Korea Singapore US UK Italy France Spain Germany Switzerland Rest of EU
Iran Rest of world
Latest today
244,601 80,967 924 8,652 345 13,680 2,716 41,035 10,886 17,963 15,320 4,075 13,948 18,407 15,683
18-Mar 191,339 80,928 829 8,413 266 3,536 1,954 31,506 7,652 11,178 7,156 2,650 10,066 16,169 9,036
17-Mar 179,144 80,894 829 8,320 243 3,503 1,547 27,980 6,573 9,191 6,012 2,200 8,397 14,991 8,464
16-Mar 167,541 80,881 814 8,236 243 1,678 1,395 24,747 5,380 7,753 4,838 2,200 7,448 14,991 6,937
15-Mar 153,517 80,860 780 8,162 212 1,678 1,144 21,157 4,469 5,753 3,795 1,359 5,812 12,729 5,607
14-Mar 142,528 80,844 716 8,086 200 1,678 802 17,660 3,640 4,231 3,062 1,125 4,559 11,364 4,561
13-Mar 132,768 80,824 675 7,979 187 1,264 594 15,113 2,860 2,965 2,369 858 3,295 10,075 3,710
12-Mar 125,056 80,813 620 7,869 178 987 460 12,462 2,269 2,140 1,567 645 2,767 9,000 3,279
11-Mar 118,340 80,793 568 7,755 166 696 373 10,149 1,774 1,639 1,296 491 1,841 8,042 2,757
10-Mar 113,722 80,778 514 7,513 160 472 323 9,172 1,402 1,024 1,139 332 1,348 7,161 2,384
9-Mar 109,588 80,754 488 7,382 150 213 277 7,375 1,116 589 1,112 332 1,094 6,566 2,140
8-Mar 105,624 80,735 455 7,134 138 213 210 5,883 706 430 795 264 877 5,823 1,961
7-Mar 101,968 80,695 408 6,767 130 213 167 4,636 613 374 639 209 609 4,747 1,761
6-Mar 98,290 80,651 349 6,284 117 148 118 3,858 420 257 534 86 368 3,513 1,587
Source: WHO, NHC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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COVID-19 update
As of March 19, the total number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in China was 80,967, up 0.05% d/d (Mar 18: +0.04%). Total new confirmed cases were 39 (including 0 from Hubei and 39 from the rest of China and all were imported cases). Of note, active confirmed cases of China continued to trend down, with cases of Mar 19 at 6,763 (-9% d/d). In contrast, overseas active cases saw notable upturns and came in at 140,258 on Mar 19, up 19% d/d (Figure 4-6). For comprehensive coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak, please refer to MW Kim: “China COVID-19 outbreak: Daily data update” (link).
Figure 1: Number of newly confirmed and suspected
Source: NHC, J.P. Morgan. Note: region refers to mainland China.
Figure 2: Number of total confirmed and suspected
Source: NHC, J.P. Morgan. Note: region refers to mainland China.
Figure 3: Active cases in China and Hubei
Source: NHC, J.P. Morgan. Note: Active confirmed = total confirmed- total deceased – total
cured; China refers to Greater China.
Figure 4: Active cases in China ex. Hubei and Global ex. China
Source: NHC, J.P. Morgan. Note: Active confirmed = total confirmed- total deceased – total
cured; China refers to Greater China.
Figure 5: Active cases global ex. China
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan. Note: Active confirmed = total confirmed- total deceased – total
cured; China refers to Greater China.
Figure 6: Newly confirmed cases global ex. China
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan
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High frequency data tracking activity
Daily coal consumption at six major power generatorsFigure 7: Daily coal consumption
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 8: Daily coal consumption during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Real estate transactionsFigure 9: Housing transactions by sqm for 30 major cities
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan
Figure 10: Housing available for sales of top 10 cities
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
J.P. Morgan Big Data Shipping Index (BIDSI)Figure 11: China BIDSI inbound inc. domestic flows
Source: J.P. Morgan, MariTrace.
Figure 12: China BIDSI outbound inc. domestic flows
Source: J.P. Morgan, MariTrace.
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Daily 1mma'0000 tons
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Index, previous year=100
Day (T= LNY day)
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Inbound - million metric tons per day, centered on Lunar New Year
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Avg 2017-20192020
Outbound - million metric tons per day, centered on Lunar New Year
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Base metal pricesFigure 13: Copper prices and NBS PMI
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. NBS PMI at 35.7 for February 2020.
Figure 14: Copper daily prices
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 15: Aluminum prices and NBS PMI
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. NBS PMI at 35.7 for February 2020.
Figure 16: Aluminum daily prices
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 17: Zinc prices and NBS PMI
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. NBS PMI at 35.7 for February 2020.
Figure 18: Zinc daily prices
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.
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%oya Index
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NBS PMI
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USD/Tonne
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Zhejiang work resumption electricity index (last observation on Feb 25)Figure 19: Work resumption electricity index of Zhejiang province
Source: Zhejiang Electricity Ltd, J.P. Morgan. Note: Index = 0.5 x electricity consumption
resumption ratio (by usage) + 0.5 x factory work resumption ratio (by number).
Figure 20: Work resumption electricity index of Zhejiang’s industries
Source: Zhejiang electricity Ltd, J.P. Morgan. Note: Index = 0.5 x electricity consumption
resumption ratio (by usage) + 0.5 x factory work resumption ratio (by number).
Chinese New Year travel growth-LNY travel period Figure 21: LNY travel comparison (ended on Feb 18)
Source: MOT, J.P. Morgan. Note: LNY traffic starts from T-15 to T+25. T is LNY day.
Figure 22: National daily tourism traffic by various transportation
Source: MOT, J.P. Morgan.
Baidu transport dataFigure 23: Highway traffic jam
Source: Baidu, J.P. Morgan. Note: yoy comparison based on daily peak level of national
highway traffic jam. Last observation on March 12, 2020.
Figure 24: Transportation hub passenger flow (index)
Source: Baidu, J.P. Morgan. Transportation hub include airports and major train stations. Last
observation on March 12, 2020.
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Traffic delay index (Actual travel time divided by estimated travel time with no traffic)Figure 25: Wuhan traffic delay index
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 26: Wuhan traffic delay index during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 27: Guangzhou traffic delay index during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 28: Beijing traffic delay index during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 29: Shenzhen traffic delay index during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 30: Shanghai traffic delay index during LNY
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
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(x)
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11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
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2020 Historical average (2016-2019)(x)
Day (T=LNY Day)
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Consumption sales monitor for auto and fabricFigure 31: Daily average retail sales of passenger vehicles
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 32: Daily average retail sales of passenger vehicles
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 33: Knitted fabric sales in China Textile City
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan. Note: China Textile City is the largest fabric trading hub in Asia.
Figure 34: Cotton fabric sales in China Textile City
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan. Note: China Textile City is the largest fabric trading hub in Asia.
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China Textile City: cotton fabric sales (10DMA)
LT average
mn meters
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Air Quality index: Top industrial citiesFigure 35: China Air Quality Index: Top 10 industrial cities
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan. Simple average of top 10 cities include Shenzhen, Shanghai,
Suzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Wuxi and Ningbo.
Figure 36: China Air Quality Index: Shanghai
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 37: China Air Quality Index: Shenzhen
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 38: China Air Quality Index: Suzhou
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 39: China Air Quality Index: Tianjin
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 40: China Air Quality Index: Chongqing
Source: Haver, J.P. Morgan.
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Market indicators
Figure 41: Cumulative net liquidity injection/withdrawal since LNY
Source: PBOC, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Figure 42: Cumulative gross liquidity injection since LNY
Source: PBOC, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Figure 43: Key market interest rates
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan
Figure 44: Key policy rates in China
Source: CEIC
Figure 45: USD/CNY exchange rate
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Figure 46: CNY CFETS index
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
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Figure 47: Equity market performance - YTD
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 48: Stock connect cumulative net flows - YTD
Source: Wind, J.P. Morgan
Figure 49: MSCI China sector performance since February 2020
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Figure 50: CSI300 sector performance since February 2020
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Since February 3, 2020.
Figure 51: Hong Kong turnover (5d moving average)
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
Figure 52: SHCOMP and SZCOMP turnover (5d moving average)
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan
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Government measuresTable 2: Epidemic prevention and control measures
Epidemic prevention and control measures Govt level Source
20-Mar Jilin lowered the emergency level from level 2 to level 3 Local link
19-Mar Henan lowered the emergency level from level 1 to level 2 Local link
15-Mar Anhui lowered the emergency level from level 2 to Level 3 Local link
12-Mar Jiangxi lowered the emergency to level 2 for all regions Local link
10-Mar Hunan and Chongqing lowered the emergency level from Level 1 to Level 2 Local link
09-Mar Shanxi lowered the emergency level from Level 2 to Level 3 Local link
09-Mar Guangdong government introduced new rule to ban the consumption of wild animal. The eaters could be fined by 10k yuan. Local link
08-Mar Shandong lowered the emergency level, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most severe) to twenty-three.
Local link
06-Mar Tibet lowered the emergency level, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most severe) to twenty-two. Local link
04-Mar Heilongjiang lowered the emergency level, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most severe) to twenty-one.
Local link
01-Mar Ningxia and Zhejiang provinces lowered the emergency level, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most severe) to twenty.
Local link
01-Mar Ministry of Transportation announced cease the online ride-hailing vehicles to leave Wuhan or Hubei. Local link
28-Feb Shaanxi has lowered the emergency level, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most sever) to eighteen.
Local link
27-Feb Jilin, Hainan and Fujian have lowered their emergency levels, bringing the total provinces with emergency levels below 1 (the most sever) to seventeen
Local link
26-Feb Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Qinghai have lowered their emergency levels Local link
25-Feb Jiangxi has lowered its emergency level to level 2 for 24 regions and to level 3 for 16 regions Local link
25-Feb For regions outside Hubei and Beijing, NDRC guided to assign risk level (high/mid/low) to each country. Low risk regions are permitted to fully resume production and remove traffic restriction.
Central link
25-Feb NHC said to maintain the most stringent COVID-19 prevention measures for Hubei. Local link
24-Feb NHC said provincial governments could lower the emergency level based on respective condition. Six provinces lowered the emergency level: Gansu/Liaoning/Guizhou/Yunan from Level 1 to 3 and Guangdong/Shanxi from Level 1 to 2.
Central link
24-Feb Wuhan loosened the city-wide lockdown. For those who are stranded or seeking treatment elsewhere, Wuhan now is allowing qualified personnel to leave the city.
Local link
22-Feb Wuhan government announced that cured patients should take another 14-day quarantine before full release. Local link
19-Feb Shenzhen’s Nanshan district said qualified companies (except cinema, KTV, bars, etc.) can resume work without government approvals
Local link
19-Feb Wuhan tightened the supermarket control and only allowed the purchase conducted by institutions (community, company). Local link
18-Feb Ministry of Civil Affairs and National Health Commission said to provide subsidy for volunteers who are working in COVID-19prevention regions.
Central link
17-Feb The Standing Committee of National People’s Congress will meet on Feb24 to discuss the delay of annual NPC meeting, which previously scheduled to commence on Mar 5.
Central link
16-Feb Beijing’s Dongcheng district announced to implement the lockdown management for residential community areas. Local link
14-Feb Tianjin city issued new laws on forbidding the wild animal consumption. Local link
13-Feb Hubei’s Huanggang city will put all residential communities and areas on lockdown as the city upgraded COVID-19 prevention and control measures. Local
link
12-Feb Hubei will extend shutdowns in the region and not resume work before Feb. 21. School re-openings have also been postponed, but did not specify a date Local
link
11-FebGuangzhou and Shenzhen announced that local government could temporarily expropriate private facilities (houses, venues, vehicles, etc.) for COVID-19 prevention, if necessarily.
Local link
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Epidemic prevention and control measures Govt level Source11-Feb National Health Commission stated that companies who encounter infected employees may not need to shut down operation, as
long as the infected cases are discovered at early stage, investigation is well conducted and no other infected cases occurred. Central link
11-Feb Shenzhen, now considered a potential new infection hot spot, banned home sales in every possible form for as long as city authorities have the alert level set at the highest response. Zhengzhou, a metropolis on the Yellow River in central Henan province, has restricted all property construction until mid-March.
Local link
9-Feb State Council sent a central government team to Huanggang, Hubei, to ensure hospital admission for all confirmed cases and isolation of suspected cases
Central link
6-Feb Several cities (Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc.) tightened the entry/exit permits for residence community. In particular, residents need valid pass certificate for enter/exit, along with temperature measuring.
local link
6-Feb The State Council meeting stressed further measures in epidemic prevention and control and production resumption. Multipronged measures will be taken to increase berths, medical staff members and other healthcare forces in Wuhan specifically. Enterprises are encouraged to innovate the way they operate and reduce staff flows. In addition, schools of all kinds are allowed to postpone the spring semester or stagger dates to start school.
Central link
5-Feb State Council Standing Committee meeting focused on epidemic control and supportive macro policies. Priority support to Hubei; local government should ensure essential necessities for consumption; Smooth transportation management.
Central -
2-Feb 22 provinces (jointly accounting for 77% of GDP) announced delay of factory reopen no earlier than February 9. Local link30-Jan World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. International link27-Jan (i) State Council announced extension of Lunar New Year holiday by two days to February 2nd; (ii) Cities in Guangdong,
Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai announced that schools and factories will reopen no earlier than February 9Central, Local
26-Jan Wuhan city ban non-essential vehicles in the center; (ii) Beijing stops all inter-provincial shuttle buses Local25-Jan (i) CPC Politburo held a meeting on containing the risk of COVID-19 outbreak, a leading team was established. Premier Li was
appointed as the head of the leading team. (ii) Hubei province changed Level-2 to Level-1 Responsive Mechanism; (iii) China suspended all overseas and domestic group tours
Central, Local
24-Jan Lockdown was expanded to other 12 cities in Hubei province. 23-Jan (i) Wuhan announced lockdown of the city: (i) restricted travel and suspend public transportation services; (ii) Ban large
gatherings and limit public activities, (iii) require people in public places to wear medical masks. (ii) Zhejiang and Fujianprovinces first initiated Level-1 Responsive Mechanism (highest level).
Local
20-Jan Human-to-human spread officially publicly confirmed. President Xi called for all-out prevention and control measures in response to COVID-19 outbreak. State Council Standing Committee meeting laid out key prevention and control measures.
Central link
8-Dec First case of COVID-19 identified. Local
Source: Various newswire, J.P. Morgan.
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Table 3: Economic supportive measures
Economic supportive measures in response to COVID-19 outlook Government level Source
19-Mar
Jiangxi province introduced measures to boost consumption, which highlighted to (i) distribute travel coupons in the province, (ii) pilot a 2.5-day flexible weekend program starting from 2Q20. The reduced working hours could be replenished by extending other working days, and (iii) offer half-price tickets for 4A&5A-level tourist attractions on every Friday afternoon. Local link
19-Mar
Shanghai rolled out subsidy plan for company that were heavily impacted by COVID-19: (i) companies operated during LNY for virus containment purpose could be subsidized by 1500 yuan/person, (ii) companies under lodging, catering, entertainment, travel and transportation sectors could receive subsidy of 800 yuan/person. Upper limit per company is 5mn yuan. Local link
19-MarWuhan deputy governor of the Hubei province stated that Wuhan’s first –category enterprise can continue to resume production, while other firms should not resume until March 20 at midnight. Local link
19-Mar
MIIT issued the plan for Digital Empowerment of SMEs, with 13 key tasks and 4 measures targeted to emphasize the use of information technology to strengthen epidemic prevention and control, and encourage enterprises to resume production and operation; accelerate the development of new models such as online office and online education; and improve Cloud services to promote the digital development of industrial sectors. Central link
19-MarHubei province decided to adjust the minimum capital ratio of infrastructure projects from 20% to 15% to aid underdeveloped projects in highways, railways, urban construction, social livelihood, etc. To alleviate financing pressures, Hubei Province has set up a special fund amounting to 200 billion yuan. Local link
19-MarMinistry of Human Resources and Social Security announced that from March 20 to June 30 (a total of 100 days), it will push online job hunting platforms to send out more than 10mn of job positions and organize large-scale online recruitment activities to stabilize employment and help work resumption. Central link
18-Mar MIIT introduced four measures to help auto companies to accelerate work resumption, such as operation streamlining, relaxation on R&D testing, etc. Besides, MOFCOM said central government is mulling measures to further support auto, home furniture and home appliance consumption
Central link
17-Mar NDRC announced to slash retail prices for gasoline and diesel by 1,015 yuan and 975 yuan per tonne, respectively. The cut will send the oil product prices to the floor level ($40 per barrel) set by regulator. Of note, this is the largest price cut since 2013.
Central link
17-Mar China will raise export rebate rates for 1,464 types of products, starting from March 20. The rebate rate for 1,084 products including ceramic sanitary ware will be increased to 13%, and the rest 380 goods including plant growth regulators will be increased to 9%.
Central link
17-Mar NDRC commented the macro condition and highlighted work arrangements for the next stage. Key takeaways: (i) China economy will normalize in second quarter, (ii) central government will increase the quota of special bond issuance and accelerate the development of 5G network and data center
Central link
17-Mar Shanghai city rolled out 11 measures targeting foreign trade, in an effort to support enterprises’ work resumption (e.g. portoperation, transportations) and financing. In particular, the coverage of insurance policy financing will be expanded to enterprises with annual exports revenue below $30mn, from the previous $5mn.
Central link
16-Mar NDRC revised the “Central Pricing Catalog (2015 edition)” by trimming 30% of pricing items that were regulated by central government. The amendments were highlighted to: (i) delete regulated pricing items that have been liberalized since 2015; (ii) reinforce the market-driven tariff reform in electricity and gas sectors, etc.; (iii) re-organize the pricing department based on pricing reform mechanism.
Central link
16-Mar PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan MLF operation on March 16, while keeping 1 year MLF rate unchanged at 3.15%. Central link15-Mar CBIRC reported that banking system has provided over 1.4 trillion yuan so far to combat the COVID-19. Central link14-Mar Nanjing city will issue ~318 million yuan consumer coupons to promote the consumption recovery. Local link14-Mar CSRC announced to cancel the foreign ownership ceiling for domestic securities firms on April 1, eight months ahead of
original schedule. Central link
13-Mar To support SMEs, PBOC announced to implement targeted RRR cut for inclusive finance, effective on March 16. In particular, PBOC will trim 0.5-1% targeted RRR for qualified banks and additional 1% for qualified joint-stock banks. The move is expected to inject 550bn yuan long-term liquidity.
Central link
13-Mar NDRC outlined 19 measures to foster domestic consumption sector, which highlighted to (i) encourage areas that have restricted car purchase to increase the car plate quota as appropriate, (ii) expand the imports and lower the import tax for consumer staples, and (iii) build up more duty-free shops.
Central link
12-Mar The PBOC and State Administration of Foreign Exchange revised up the macro-prudent adjustment parameter, a multiple that decides the upper limit of outstanding cross-border financing an institution can have, from 1 to 1.25. The move is expected to help SMEs to raise funds through multiple channels and ease the financial strain.
Central link
12-Mar To help restore foreign trade, MOFCOM said to further improve export tax rebate policies, increase foreign trade loans and encourage insurance companies to offer short-term export credit insurance services while lowering the premium rates
Central link
12-Mar To boost auto sales, CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) suggested to (i) sustain the NEV subsidy policy, (ii) enhance NEV infra construction, (iii) loosen the NEV purchase and car plate quota for restricted cities, and (iv) lower purchase tax for small emission vehicles (<1.6L)
Central link
11-Mar NDRC has provided guidance and streamlining processes on facilitating work resumption for foreign companies. In addition, the State Council is considering shortening the negative list for foreign investment to expand domestic access for foreign capital.
Central link
11-Mar State Council emphasized targeted RRR cuts to support SME. In addition, it announced measures to support foreign companies/investments.
Central link
11-Mar Hubei government announced work resumption schedules. For Wuhan city, virus-prevention and important civil related industries (e.g. transportation, consumer staples, farming and corporates with significant supply chain impact, etc) are approved to resume work, while the rest can start from Mar 21.
Local link
11-Mar Shenzhen government approved first-class quality developers to unfreeze capital from bank, with value no more than 20% of presale project revenue.
Local link
10-Mar Henan province approved to raise the leverage for micro loan companies that are related to virus-prevention and work resumption. State-owned micro finance companies should lower annualized lending rate by 5-10%.
Local link
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Economic supportive measures in response to COVID-19 outlook Government level Source10- Mar China Custom said to further trim the fees, such as delayed declaration fee and overdue fine. Central link10-Mar The Poverty Alleviation and Development Office said to (i) provide one-off subsidy and loan interest reduction for
corporates that are supportive to regional poverty alleviation (e.g. job creation), and (ii) allow low income households to delay the interest payment by maximum 6 months.
Central linklink
09-Mar Civil Aviation Administration of China introduced supportive measures, which highlighted to: (i) cut airport landing fee by 10%, etc; (ii) complete RMB 100bn fixed assets investment in 2020.
Central link
09-Mar Shanghai Film Group rolled out RMB 1bn fund to help disrupted cinemas in Yangtze River Delta. Local link07-Mar Two provinces released real estate policy adjustments: (i) Shandong government lowered the construction
requirement for presales permit approvals. (ii) In contrast, Hainan province announced to limit local residents to 3 home purchases in Hainan. Also, the housing presales will be restricted in order to improve quality control. Lastly, the government also introduced piloting program for public housing.
Local Linklink
07-Mar Heilongjiang province set up a “SMEs stability fund” valued at RMB 10bn. Local link06-Mar CSRC announced to lower securities firms’ contribution ratio on investor protection funds to ease the operating impact
from COVID-19. The investor protection fund collection in 2019 was RMB2.26bn and CSRC expects the collection to drop by 45% in 2020, translating to ~RMB1bn in cost savings for the industry.
Central link
06-Mar Liaoning province announced to waive of social security collection for SMEs from Feb to Jun. Local link05-Mar Hunan government disclosed 105 important investment projects with total valued at 1 trillion yuan, which included the
revamp of Changsha airport and 12 highway projects.Local link
05-Mar Guangdong government rolled out 1,230 important investment projects with total valued at 5.9 trillion yuan. For 2020, the investment plan is estimated at 700bn yuan.
Local link
05-Mar State Council unveiled a guidance on deepening the reform of the country’s medical insurance system, which highlighted to build up special medical insurance payment policies to ensure that medical institutions can provide treatments before charging fee, amidst epidemic outbreak. The goal of the reform is to set up a medical security system that could provide basic medical service nationwide.
Central link
05-Mar Beijing announced to cut the company medical insurance collection by 50%, effective till Jun 30. Local link05-Mar China State Railway Group announced to lower logistic miscellaneous fee by 50%, which valued at 380mn yuan,
effective till Jun 30.Central link
04-Mar President Xi held the State Council Standing Committee meeting, which highlighted to: (i) leverage on the power and creativity of entrepreneurs; (ii) enhance the investment and accelerate the construction of 5G network and data center (first mention).
Central link
03-Mar Changzhou city announced 8 real estate measures, including the delays of developers’ tax declaration and land purchase payments, as well as the relaxed criteria of presale housing projects.
Local link
03-Mar In order to ensure the local civil expense payments (e.g. salary), State Council said to (i) raise the provincial reserve fund by 5%, which amounts to ~110bn yuan and all will be allocated to county-level governments; (ii) accelerate the transfer payment to support local government.
Central link
03-Mar State Council rolled out measures to support transportation and express: (i) avoid the inappropriate approvals on work resumption; (ii) enhance tax/fee reduction. From Mar 1 to Jun 30, the port construction fee will be exempted and fees such as ‘harbor dues on cargo’ will be cut by 20%. Some airport service fee will be lowered as well. (iii) encourage insurance/taxi companies to cut/waive relevant fees for transport units.
Central link
03-Mar State Taxation Administration announced to delay the tax declaration date of March from Mar 16 to Mar 23. Central link03-Mar Guangzhou government introduced car purchase subsidy plan, effective from Mar to Dec 2020. In particular, for
individual consumer, the government will subside 10k yuan per NEV and 3K yuan per vehicle that meet “National VI” emission standard.
Local link
02-Mar China Auto Dealer Chamber of Commerce proposed five supporting measures to the central government for auto consumption. Key takeaways: (i) accelerate OEM’s rebate payment to dealers, (ii) delay the implementation of “National VI” emission standard, (iii) lower second-hand cars’ transaction tax.
Local link
01-Mar NDRC announced to transform the enterprise bond issuance to a registration-based system from an approval-based one, effective on March 1. Key takeaways: (i) loosened the financial criteria, such as the removal of “new issuance amount cannot exceed 40% of NAV”; (ii) streamlined the approval process. NDRC will no longer participate the project review/approval.
Central link
01-Mar Year to date, seven provinces disclosed infra investment plans, with total amount valued at 25trillion yuan and targeted investment amount for 2020 at 3.5tn yuan.
Local link
01-Mar MOT said to support taxi companies by lowering fee and providing subsidy. Central link28-Feb Chinese Academy of Social Sciences commented on real estate industry amidst COVID-19 impact. Key takeaways:
(i) provide adequate supports to developers facing financial difficulties, based on the rule of “housing is for living, not for speculation”; (ii) ease the mortgage repayment pressure for low income households; (iii) strictly control the leverage level of house purchase and other stimulus measures.
Central link
28-Feb Aimed to ease the employment pressure, Ministry of Education planned to increase the enrollment of master’s degree students in China by 189,000 this year. Meanwhile, the bachelor degree program will try to admit an additional 322,000 junior college students. The incremental master degrees mainly target at healthcare, integrated circuit and AI, etc.
Central link
28-Feb Shenzhen city offered 10% discount of water fee for industrial and commercial service companies. Local link27-Feb PBOC planned to lower the targeted RRR for qualified financial institutions, in order to support inclusive finance.
PBOC also reported that financial institutions have well leveraged the 300bn yuan targeted refinancing quota, as actual financing cost for virus prevention corporates now stands at 1.28% by average, lower than the 1.60% guided by State Council.
Central link
27-Feb MOFCOM introduced 4 insurance measures for small-mid export companies: (i) expand the short-term insurance policy’s coverage; (ii) create a fast track for claim settlement; (iii) lower/ delay fee payment; (iv) raise the scale of policy financing.
Central link
26-Feb China Zheshang bank guided to lower the housing down payment from 30% to 20%, for first home buyers in non-HPR (home purchase restriction) cities. Beside, Dongguan city loosened housing policy by extending longest loan period of provident fund loans to 30 years from 20 years, and raising the maximum loanable amount.
Local link
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Economic supportive measures in response to COVID-19 outlook Government level Source26-Feb In order to ease SMEs liquidity pressure, PBOC raised the ‘COVID-19 prevention’ refinancing quota by 500bn yuan, in
addition to the current 300bn yuan. Meantime, refinancing rates for agriculture and SMEs are lowered by 25bps to 2.5%. Industry wise, refinancing quota will be mainly used for farming, livestock, exports, travel/leisure and transportation, etc.
Central link
26-Feb Shanghai will provide subsidy for cinemas and movie distribution companies Local link26-Feb Shandong announced to allocate 12.7bn yuan to support transportation projects, including 3.6bn for railway, 9.1bn for
roads.Local link
24-Feb MIIT reported 30% resumption rate for SMEs and highlighted 5 measures to help SMEs: (i) accelerate the synchronized resumption schedules for supply chain; (ii) ensure the implementation of supporting measures; (iii) enhance the cooperation between different departments, especially on raw materials, medicals and logistics; (iv) optimize the leading role of central SOEs; (v) guide and help SMEs’ COVID-19 prevention during the work resumption.
Central link
24-Feb NDRC officials highlighted that: (1) 2020 economic and social targets could still be achieved. (2) Central government will continue to roll out fiscal support, including targeted fee/tax cuts for SMEs, more subsidies on less developed regions, and higher special bond issuance quota.
Central link
24-Feb PBOC officials commented on the next phase monetary policy and pledged to: (1) accelerate the implementation of 300bn yuan refinancing loans, (2) adjust targeted RRR cuts for inclusive finance, (3) support manufacturing, exports, and hog supply chain via 3 policy banks.
Central link
24-Feb MOF said the central and regional governments have planned 99.5bn yuan for COVID-19 prevention fund. Central link24-Feb China State Grid and China Southern Power Grid announced the waiver of electricity fees valued at 48.9bn and
10.6bn yuan, respectively. Central/local link
22-Feb Anhui province rolled out 17 measures to support agricultural companies, including work resumption acceleration and credit support.
Local link
21-Feb President Xi held the TP meeting for city-above leaders and highlighted the latest policy stance. In particular, fiscal policy should be “more proactive” and monetary policy should be “more flexible”. The meeting also emphasized efforts to shore up demand by accelerating the implementation of new projects and supporting the new economy, such as healthcare, 5G and industrial internet.
Central link
21-Feb CAAM (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) have submitted the application, seeking to delay the implementation of vehicle emission standards VI, due to the COVID-19 shock.
Central link
21-Feb Henan province rolled out 18 measures to support real estate industry, including temporal credit expansion, and fee collection delay/cut, etc.
Local link
21-Feb State Taxation Administration officially announced to temporarily waive the social security collection (pension, unemployment, and employment injury) for companies, based on regions’ financial condition. In particular, SMEs and big corporates could be waived by no more than 5 and 3 months, respectively.
Central link
21-Feb MOFCOM announced to further trim down the negative list, broaden the access of foreign capital, and accelerate the market-driven reform for experimental free trade zones.
Central link
20-Feb Guangdong rolled out the 2nd version of employment supporting measures, including the extended cut of social security fee till 30 April 2021.
Local link
20-Feb Hebei province set up a fund valued at 50bn yuan, in order to support work resumption, COVID-19 prevention and infra construction, etc.
Local link
20-Feb Guangdong CBIRC relaxed the non-performing loan recognition. SMEs collateral loans with 90-day interest delay payment are not required to be booked as NPL.
Local link
20-Feb Ministry of Housing and urban-rural development announced that companies could apply to delay the housing provident fund contribution till June 30.
Central link
20-Feb Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security announced to raise the adjustment portion of central pension fund to 4% from 3.5%. The adjustment portion was designed to balance the pension expense among provinces and aimed to allocate more to less developed regions.
Central link
20-Feb PBOC cut 10bps for 1 year LPR to 4.05% and cut 5bps for 5 year LPR to 4.75%. Central link20-Feb National Health Security Admission said the 50% wavier of corporates’ medical insurance contribution (no longer than
5 months) could save 150bn yuan for corporates by total.Central link
19-Feb PBOC said the central bank has largely collected the liquidity injected post LNY and current liquidity status remains adequate.
Central link
19-Feb ICBC raised the credit loan limit to 100mn yuan and offered lending rate discounts for epidemic prevention SMEs and Hubei SMEs.
Central link
19-Feb Beijing Custom announced 24 measures to support work resumption, mainly focusing on faster clearing, tax/fee collection delay and digitalizing paper work.
Local link
19-Feb Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security announced to loosen the criteria for SMEs to collect theunemployment insurance premium. Up to date, government has returned 3.4bn yuan unemployment premium to 110k companies.
Central link
18-Feb MOFCOM announced measures to support work resumption for global trade, foreign companies and e-commerce, which suggested to streamline business approval process and accelerate the usage of subsidy fund.
Central link
18-Feb State Council standing committee meeting emphasized: (i) taking measure to ensure spring agriculture production and support livestock and poultry production; (ii) waiver of pension/unemployment/work injury insurance contribution for all enterprises in Hubei and all SMEs outside Hubei between February and June, and halved for large enterprises outside Hubei; (iii) delay of housing fund payment before late-June.
Central link
18-Feb Shandong province announced to delay medical insurance fee collections (6 months max) for SMEs that are facing operation difficulty.
Local link
18-Feb NDRC urged local governments to ensure the fertilizer supply during spring farming, especially to provide sufficient credit supports for fertilizer producers.
Central link
18-Feb SASAC made a speech and highlighted: (i) up till Feb 17, ~20,000 production-type SOEs reached over 80% work resumption rate, among which oil, telecom, electricity and transportation sectors reach over 95%; (ii) yearly production/operation targets and reform tasks will remain intact; (iii) central SOEs will maintain the infra supply
Central link
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Economic supportive measures in response to COVID-19 outlook Government level Source(electricity, gas, etc.) even if users delay the fee payment.
18-Feb Jiangsu rolled out 8 measures to ensure employment stability and work resumption Local link18-Feb MOF said to remove the counter tariff on certain US imports, starting from Mar 2. This is in addition to reciprocal
Phase 1 tariff reduction, aiming to support increasing purchase of US products.Central link
17-Feb The Ministry of Finance chief Liu Kun made a speech regarding latest fiscal policy stance. Key points: fiscal policy should focus on structural adjustment, increasing spending and tax cuts in priority areas but cut general expense, meantime be wary of local government fiscal problem.
Central link
17-Feb PBOC injected RMB200bn liquidity via MLF with interest rate lowered by 10bp and issued another RMB100bn in reverse repos on Feb 17. Nonetheless, given RMB1 trillion in reverse repo maturities, net liquidity was still negative on the day.
Central link
16-Feb Guangdong province and Ningbo city announced measures to support factory reopening. Local linklink
16-Feb Guangxi province announced the reopening schedule for service enterprises above designated size, 50% by end-Feb and 100% by end-Mar
Local link
16-Feb Ministry of Transportation announced the highway fees will be waived from Feb 17 Central link14-Feb Hunan province’s Hengyang city rolled out 17 measures to support real estate, including fee/tax reduction and
expansion on qualified graduate buyers for housing subsidy. Local link
14-Feb CSRC loosened the refinancing rules to help listed companies on work resumption and working capital. The major revisions include: (i) the removal of profitability requirement for private placements on ChiNext (a start-up board). (ii) Issuing price discount for private placements is now raised to 20% (previously: 10%). (iii) Lockup periods of private placement were shortened to 18 and 6 months, from previous 36 and 12 months (18m for major shareholders and strategic investors, 6m for other investors).
Central link
14-Feb CBIRC announced to raise the tolerance of non-performing loan and allow certain delay of loan repayment. Central link14-Feb Up till Feb 13, central and local governments have allocated 80.55bn fiscal fund for COVID-19 prevention, actual
expense reached 41bn yuan.Central link
13-Feb Wuxi city rolled out 17 supportive measures for real estate. Key measures include: (i) real estate companies (developers, constructors, housing agents, etc.) can delay tax payment. (ii) Developers can apply for housing presales once complete the 25% of planned project investment.
Local link
13-Feb Communist party leaders of the Hubei province and Wuhan were replaced. Previous Shanghai mayor Ying Yong will take over as party secretary of Hubei, while Wang Zhonglin takes over in Wuhan.
Local link
13-Feb Ministry of Transportation and National Health Commission announced to streamline the vehicle pass certificate, especially vehicles for emergency purposes. Regulators also stated to loosen the 14 days quarantine policy for drivers/operators who are supplying the infected regions.
Central link
13-Feb State Council highlighted that local government should take the stability of food staples supply as an important political mission, in order to ensure the orderly operation of supply chain. Supportive measures covered food staples’ production, logistics, trading, work resumption, and credit supports, etc.
Central link
12-Feb Shenzhen government eased the repayment policy of housing provident funds loan for COVID-19 related individuals (front line workers and patients)
Local link
12-Feb Shanghai, Xi’an and Zhejiang announced to extend payment schedule for land acquisitions and extend project completion dates.
Local LinkLinkLink
12-Feb Premier Li held the politburo and State Council meeting, which highlighted the “six stability” (employment, financial markets, trade, foreign and domestic investments and outlook) implementation and local measures to help private sectors, in particular SMEs.
Central link
12-Feb Up till Feb12, there are at least 25 provinces/cities rolled out ~90 measures to support SMEs. Most frequently mentioned measures include credit injection, lower financing costs, interest subsidy, tax payment delay, rent/tax deduction and extra subsidy for employment stability.
Local
12-Feb Shanghai announced to allocate 1bn yuan credit loan to support companies that are facing liquidity issue. Local link12-Feb For hog production companies, Ministry of Agricultural announced to support by increasing the funding/interest
subsidies.Central link
11-Feb State Council announced to increase front loaded local government bond quota by 858bn yuan, with 558bn allocated to general bonds and 290bn yuan to special bond. In addition to the pre-approved special bond quota of 1 trillion yuan, the latest front loaded bond quota reached 1.848 trillion yuan.
Central link
11-Feb Shanghai government announced to waive the rents of Feb and Mar for private SMEs that are leasing SOE’s real estate property.
Local link
11-Feb CBIRC Shanghai strengthens its support for banks to ensure regulatory policies. Key measures include: Lower funding cost for SMEs by 50bps; loosen the 60/90 days non-performing loan recognition for companies that lost revenue during COVID-19, grant loan extension (not exceeding 1 year) to companies that fail to repay the loans before June 30,2020, and increase the line of credit for qualified SMEs with no additional information/credit enhancement measures needed.
Local link
10-Feb According to survey, Shanghai government said ~70% of manufacturing companies and ~80% of IT/software companies resumed operation. Also, Shanghai coordinated 598 companies to return to work.
Local link
10-Feb (i) President Xi emphasized to adopt policy to minimize the COVID-19 impact on the economy and attempt to achieve key policy targets for 2020; (ii) Zhejiang government issued guidelines to control epidemic contagion and to ensure stability for corporate, for local economy and for local development. Zhejiang announced local fiscal and financial supportive measures for epidemic prevention related corporates, reduce corporate burden (tax, fee, electricity/water/gas cost, transportation and rental cost); rescue measures for distressed firms (fiscal and financial measures); gradual factory reopen by region/industry/timing; (iii) Up till Feb 08, China government has allocated 72bn yuan for epidemic prevention fund (central government: 17bn yuan). Actual expense reached 32bn.
Central and local link
10-Feb Most of provinces will partially grant the unemployment insurance expense / social security contribution for the companies (mainly SMEs), who did not or slightly lay off their employees during the COVID-19 period.
Local link
9-Feb MIIT rolled out 20 measures to support SMEs, including support for factory reopen, delay in fee collection (electricity, Central link
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Economic supportive measures in response to COVID-19 outlook Government level Sourcewater, gas), rent deduction, tax deduction/delay, delay/refund in social security contribution, and strengthened financing support. For SMEs involved epidemic prevention, government will provide targeted interest/fiscal subsidy.
8-Feb NDRC encouraged to issue aggregate SMEs bond products to support SMEs’ liquidity and will allow the issuers to use no more than 40% of bond issuance to supplement operating liquidity. NDRC also encouraged to issue bond for COVID-19 prevention related projects, with less requirement on project return.
Central link
7-Feb NDRC and MIIT will maintain a list of important epidemic prevention corporate entities. PBOC will provide 300bn yuan re-lending facility (at 250bp below LPR, 1-year maturity) to encourage banks to lend to these corporate entities, with lending rate capped at 100bps below most recent LPR. In addition, government will provide 50% interest subsidy to ensure actual corporate interest rate is below 1.6%. Loan term is 1 year.
Central link
7-Feb China Development bank issued the first “COVID-19 bond” to support COVID-19 prevention, totaling 13.5 billion yuan at 1.65% interest rate. This product is open to retail investors.
Central link
5-Feb State Council Standing Committee meeting focused on epidemic control and supportive macro policies. Favorable policies include VAT deduction in epidemic prevention related business activities; waiver of Aviation Development Fund; support for medicine and vaccine R&D; favorable loans to epidemic prevention related SMEs with fiscal subsidy, with actual loan rate capped at 1.6%.
Central link
1-Feb PBOC, MOF and CBIRC and SAFE have co-jointly introduced 30 measures to ensure reasonable, aiming to provide sufficient liquidity, strengthen support for enterprises in the medical and pharmaceutical industry, better meet people's normal financial needs, and sustain economic growth amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
Central link
Source: Various newswire, J.P. Morgan.
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Table 4: China’s public health emergency level by province
Level I Level II Level III Level IV
No. of consecutive days of no new confirmed
casesCumulative new confirmed
cases (rolling 4 weeks)Share of GDP
%
Guangdong 23-Jan 24-Feb 59 10.9
Jiangsu 24-Jan 25-Feb 30 0 10.2
Shandong 24-Jan 8-Mar 14 7.3
Zhejiang 23-Jan 2-Mar 19 6.4
Henan 25-Jan 19-Mar 8 6 5.5
Hubei 24-Jan 2 4712 4.6
Sichuan 24-Jan 26-Feb 16 4.7
Fujian 24-Jan 27-Feb 27-Feb 6 4.2
Hunan 23-Jan 10-Mar 20 7 4.0
Shanghai 24-Jan 37 3.9
Anhui 24-Jan 25-Feb 15-Mar 21 2 3.7
Beijing 24-Jan 85 3.6
Hebei 24-Jan 21 10 3.6
Shaanxi 25-Jan 28-Feb 3 1 2.6
Liaoning 25-Jan 22-Feb 5 2.6
Jiangxi 24-Jan 12-Mar 21 1 2.5
Yunnan 24-Jan 24-Feb 3 2 2.3
Chongqing 24-Jan 10-Mar 24 9 2.2
Guangxi 24-Jan 24-Feb 8 2.2
Inner Mongolia 25-Jan 26-Feb 30 0 1.8
Shanxi 25-Jan 24-Feb 9-Mar 24 1 1.7
Guizhou 24-Jan 24-Feb 32 0 1.7
Heilongjiang 25-Jan 4-Mar 5 1.4
Tianjin 24-Jan 6 1.5
Xinjiang 25-Jan 26-Feb 8-Mar 31 0 1.4
Jilin 25-Jan 26-Feb 20-Mar 25 2 1.2
Gansu 25-Jan 21-Feb 45 0.9
Hainan 25-Jan 26-Feb 29 0 0.5
Ningxia 25-Jan 28-Feb 16 4 0.4
Qinghai 25-Jan 26-Feb 9-Mar 43 0 0.3
Tibet 29-Jan 6-Mar 50 0 0.2
Source: NHC, J.P. Morgan. Note: China’s public health emergency levels range from 1 to 4, with level 1 as the highest. GDP data as of 2018. Fujian revised down 22 regions from level 1 to level 2
and 66 regions from level 1 to level 3 on Feb 27.
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China equity strategy
Haibin Zhu AC
(852) 2800-7039
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong
Marvin M Chen
(852) 2800-7692
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong
Joanne Cheung
(852) 2800-8596
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Tim Huang
(852) 2800-8624
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Greater China Economic Research
Grace Ng
(852) 2800-7002
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong
Anita Xu
(852) 2800-2163
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong
Global Emerging Markets Research
Anthony Wong
(44-20) 7742-0985
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 02, 2020
Overweight(buy)
Neutral(hold)
Underweight(sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 45% 41% 15%IB clients* 51% 47% 39%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage 43% 42% 14%IB clients* 75% 64% 56%
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Valuation & Methodology: For J.P. Morgan's Emerging Markets Sovereign Credit Strategy, we assign a rating to each sovereign issuer (Overweight, Marketweight or Underweight) based on our view of whether the combination of the issuer’s fundamentals, market technicals, and the relative value of its securities will cause it to outperform, perform in line with, or underperform the credit returns of the EMBIGD index over the next three months. Our view of an issuer’s fundamentals includes our opinion of whether the issuer is becoming more or less able to service its debt obligations when they become due and payable, as well as whether its willingness to service debt obligations is increasing or decreasing.
J.P. Morgan Sovereign Research Ratings Distribution, as of January 2, 2020
Overweight Marketweight Underweight Global Sovereign Research Universe 16% 65% 18%
IB clients* 56% 50% 70%
*Percentage of subject issuers within each of the "buy, "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.The Sovereign Research Rating Distribution is at the issuer level. Issuers with an NR or an NC designation are not included in the table above. This information is current as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter.
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"Other Disclosures" last revised March 08, 2020.
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Completed 20 Mar 2020 07:32 PM HKT Disseminated 20 Mar 2020 07:34 PM HKTThis document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected].
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