COVID-19 · 2020-07-09 · renting instead of owning, and spending money on experiences versus...

An interactive thought experiment hosted by Paul Belair and Jonathan Slain

C O V I D - 1 9 : H O W D O E S I T C H A N G E B U S I N E S S & L I F E ?

ASSUMPTIONS:

• In December, a vaccine is FDA approved to prevent or minimize the effects of getting COVID-19

• It is the fastest vaccine to market (normally 12 to 18 months)

• Social distancing remains in place until you are vaccinated

• In the USA, 5 million people get the virus and 250,000 people die

• Worldwide, 25 million people get the virus and 2 million die

(As of June 2020, 8.3 million infections and 450 000 deaths worldwide to date)

COVID-19: How Does It Change Business and Life?

J U L Y 2 0 2 0


© Recession.com, LLC

In the USA, 5 million people get the virus and 250,000 people die. Worldwide, 25 million people get the virus and 2 million die.

ASSUMPTION

2

CHAPTERS

1. SOCIAL LIFE

a. Home & Environmentb. Community & Charity

2. BUSINESS LIFE

a. Career & Workb. Finances & Money

3. CREATIVE LIFE

a. Health & Wellness

b. Adventures & Bucket List

4. LOVE LIFEa. Family & Friendsb. Partners & Intimacy

5. PERSONAL LIFE

a. Religion & Spirituality

b. Growth & Learning

INTRODUCTION:

When we look back in 2025, we’re going to want

to name this period of unprecedented social and

economic destruction. We’re thinking it may be called

the COVID Crisis or perhaps the Corona Crash. Will

we unpause the world and everything goes back to

normal? Will the economic and social strain cause the

worst depression in history?

Will the COVID Crisis change how you prioritize the

different facets of your life?

HOME & ENVIRONMENT

COMMUNITY& CHARITY

CAREER & WORK

FINANCES& MONEY

HEALTH & WELLNESS

ADVENTURES& BUCKET LIST

FAMILY & FRIENDS

PARTNERS& INTIMACY

RELIGION & SPIRITUALITY

GROWTH & LEARNING

FIG 1. Temple of Life Model

S O C I A L

B U S I N E S S

C R E A T I V E

L O V E

P E R S O N A L

TEMPLE OF LIFE

Do you go on a cruise anytime soon? � Any interest in going to a conference in Las Vegas? � Want to attend Burning Man or SXSW? � Do you book flights for business/pleasure? Or drive?

Do McMansions make a comeback since time at home has made us keenly aware of the issues with our current homes and the desire to keep our loved ones close?

� Do homes become more secure and self-reliant with elaborate security systems, generators, solar panels, gardens and 3D printers in every household?

� Will the Corona Crisis accelerate Millenial and future generations preference for tiny houses, renting instead of owning, and spending money on experiences versus material goods?


Does life go back to “normal”? � What is the new normal?

Do we vaccinate the elderly or immunocompromised citizens first?

� How long will that take? � After that, how long will it take to vaccinate

the rest of the population?

After living in a socially distanced manner for four to six months, do you buy more things online versus going to the store?

� What impact will that have on small businesses that were devastated by the shelter-in-place rules?

� Do you shop at retail grocery stores or buy everything online?

� Will retail stores (we already have too many) consolidate to be able to survive? How will they evolve to be more experiential and relevant?

� Do you eat in restaurants? � Do you continue to eat at home more or

continue your reunion with brands like Smucker’s and Campbell’s?

� Will you get in a cab or Uber not knowing who was in it before, or if the driver is infected?

Nobody has gotten a haircut in a while, eaten at their favorite restaurant, nor been on vacation. What happens to all the pent-up demand for services?

� Do people go out and get 4 haircuts to make up for the time spent sheltering-in-place? Do you eat out 10 times? Go on 3 vacations to catch up? Or, is all of that pent-up demand, just lost?

Do you go to the movie theater anymore? � DoesNetflixbenefitsinceeveryoneprefers

to binge watch content at home? Or, do they suffer since nobody can afford the Netflix subscription since they’ve been out of work for months?

� How does Hollywood adapt?

1A. SOCIAL LIFE Home & Environment

Does the renewed spirit of working together transcend into the future?

� Do we go right back to our old ways? � Do we hoard our toilet paper or share in new and

unexpected ways?

What are the implications of Coronavirus on the fabric of America?

� Will the U.S.A leave a global leadership vacuum thattheChinesearemorethanhappytofill?

� Does every country look inward and becomes tribal, increasing chances of war?

� Will poor and developing countries, whose healthcare systems are ill-prepared, be particularly hard-hit and create further instability?

� Could society be convinced to allow trace routing for quelling the virus, leading to a quasi surveillance state?

1B. SOCIAL LIFE Community & Charity

3© Recession.com, LLC


Will startups be able to fund their burn rate or will they

be forced to shut down? � Will the U.S.A. bring back manufacturing to its

shores? � How long will unemployment remain in double digits? � How do restaurants survive with half of the tables? � Is the strength of the American Economy, flexible

labor (the gig economy), now our weakness? � Howmanycompaniesfilebankruptcyinthenext12

months? � What percentage of small businesses will decide not

to reopen?

Now that everyone is proficient in Zoom, Microsoft

Teams, Skype, etc., do you still need to have meetings

in the office? � What if virtual reality makes it even more realistic

to meet with colleagues from home?

Now that you’ve become a Jedi Master at conference

calls while homeschooling your kids, answering your

front door for Amazon, and making coffee, do you want

to go back to meetings at the office? � Dowefighttrafficanhoureachway,eachdaytogettotheofficeorjustworkfromhome?

2A. BUSINESS LIFE Career & Work

Now that you’ve become a

JediMaster at conference calls

while homeschooling your

kids, answering your front

door for Amazon, and making

coffee, do you want to go back

to meetings at the office?

4

2B. BUSINESS LIFE Finances & Money

What happens to the economy? � Are there millions of business and personal

bankruptcies? � Will there be runaway inflation when we print trillions

of dollars to support the economy? � Does Bitcoin become the new gold standard? � Does President Trump win re-election in the USA

because people crave stability or lose because he’s blamed for the depths of the crisis?

� Could this have happened at a worse time for Baby Boomers who were seeking to work one or two more years and then retire?

� Is it a coincidence that the airlines need $50 billion in bailouts after spending $45 billion over the past fiveyearsbuyingbacktheirownshares?

� Will the tidal wave of government, corporate, and consumer debt, combined with an aging population bring a deflationary spiral never seen before?

� What happens when many retailers and restaurants stop paying rent? How do landlords pay their debt? What happens when people stop paying their car loans and credit cards? What is the true level of exposure for the economy?

� How much will taxes go up if a new Democratic administration is sworn in?

How does your relationship with money change? � Do people save more for a rainy day because of

the memory of losing 20 - 30% of their retirement in a month?

� Do people spend all their savings because COVID-19 proved that you never know when you’re going to die? Or when the world might end?



Should I workout more to make sure I survive the next pandemic?

� Or, should I not waste time working out because COVID-19 doesn’t care if you are in shape or not?

� Do people still go to the gym? � Is virtual personal training or Peloton going to

become ubiquitous?

Do millenials and future generations have sleep issues later in life due to all the stress of living thru the Corona Crisis?

How do we immunize eight billion people on earth?

3A. CREATIVE LIFE Health & Wellness

Will people prefer to “see” the Great Wall of China in Virtual Reality versus risking travel to Asia?

Will more bucket list items get crossed off in 2020 and 2021 as people make up for lost time?

Will Corona beer rebrand and rename itself?

3B. CREATIVE LIFE Adventures & Bucket List

Do relationships get strained post-Corona because we get conditioned by social distancing?

� Do we embrace friendships and family more because we renew efforts to be together?

� Are we calling our elderly parents more to check in?

� Do we use the crisis as reason to bury the hatchet with old disagremeents?

4A. LOVE LIFE Friends & Family

Is there a Corona Baby Boom? � Not because you drank too many Corona

beers, but because we had a lot of time to pass at home together with our partners?

Or, does domestic abuse skyrocket because we’re trapped in the same house without an outlet for our emotions and frustrations?

Do singles post their instant COVID test results on dating apps to attract mates?

4B. LOVE LIFE Partners & Intimacy



Do people renew their faith because they think God was sending us a message?

Do people lose faith because of all the death and tragedy?

5A. PERSONAL LIFE Religion & Spirituality

Will humans embrace new technologies in an effort to prevent another pandemic?

� For example, could advanced 3D printers be used to print food and clothing so elderly or at-risk humans don’t have to leave home?

� Could autonomous, self-sterilizing cars be used so that germs aren’t spread thru taxis, buses, Uber, etc?

� WillwefocusonthefirsthumanmissionstoMars so we can establish a safehaven from the next virus?

� CanArtificialIntelligenceandmedicalnanobots be harnessed to develop vaccines faster?

� Will 5G Network technology make learning and working from home even easier?

� Will biotech explode as the FDA reduces regulation around new drug exploration?

Do we have a Renaissance because everyone has time to write the book they’ve always wanted to write?

Or, do we pass the time during the crisis self-soothing with wine, Cheetos and video games to forget our troubles?

Have we learned enough to prepare for future waves of Coronavirus?

And, finally, given that Black Swan events, like pandemics, are more likely to occur as the population on earth increases, will the next virus come around faster? Will it be even nastier than COVID-19?

5B. PERSONAL LIFE Growth & Learning

And, finally, given that Black Swan

events, like pandemics, are more

likely to occur as the population

on earth increases, will the next

virus come around faster? Will it

be even nastier than COVID-19?


JONATHAN ASKED

HIS KIDS:

How do you think Coronavirus will change the world?

“People will be scared to leave their houses”

Caroline (9 years old)

“Scientists will figureouthowtocure

the Coronavirus”

Anne Penney (7 years old)


CONCLUSIONS:

Life will be radically different after we beat the Novel Coronavirus. And, we will beat it!

Entrepreneurswillembracethemassiveprospectsthatarecession/depressionbringsandfigureoutways

to create dream outcomes from a really tough situation... In other words, some of us will make lemonade and

others will complain about the lack of opportunity!

Do the activity on the following page to determine your personal Temple of Life.

How will your life be different after COVID-19?

JONATHAN SLAIN The Governor 216.870.4219 [email protected]

PAUL BELAIR The Accelerator [email protected]


What do your kids think?


INSTRUCTIONS: Rank the following from Most Important to least important in your life to compare your

pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 convictions:

Your Thoughts on how the world will be different after COVID-19 (leave your name and country if you like):

SUBMIT TO JONATHAN & PAUL

SUBMITNAME:

COUNTRY:

8

TEMPLE OF LIFEMOST IMPORTANT:

LEAST IMPORTANT:


TEMPLE OF LIFEMOST IMPORTANT:

LEAST IMPORTANT:

COVID-19 · 2020-07-09 · renting instead of owning, and spending money on experiences versus...

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