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Course of Action Analysis (MDMP)

13 Feb 08

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)

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Agenda

•Understand how to wargame Courses of Action (COAs) and prepare for the COA comparison and selection

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Steps in the process

MissionAnalysis

COA Dev

COA AnalysisCOA Comparison

Orders Development

Receipt of Mission

Higher Commander’s Warning Order, Operation

Plan or Order

Commander’s Operation

Plan or Order

2

1

3

45

6COA Approval

7

You are here

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COA Analysis

•Commander’s•Designated COAs for wargaming•Wargaming guidance•Evaluation criteria

•Synch matrix•Updated Facts & assumptions

•Wargamed COAs•Updated Synch Matrix•List of critical events and decision points•Branches & Sequels identified•Updated Information Requirements

•Gather the tools•Refine staff estimates and estimates of supportability•Prepare COA wargame brief•Refine OPE products•List all friendly forces•List assumptions•List known critical events & decision points•Determine evaluation criteria•Select wargame method•Select method to record & display results•Conduct COA wargame

Inputs Process Outputs

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What is wargaming?

•A simulation of the COA to gain understanding of friendly and enemy COAs or environment•Helps determine advantages and disadvantages of each COA•Helps to synchronize actions in time and space in each COA•Identifies refinements to each COA•Identifies branch plans for each COA

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The Process

•Organize the team•Prepare products for the wargame•Establish ground rules•Establish priorities for wargame•Conduct wargame using a consistent method and enemy COA or environment•Record results

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Consistency

•Wargame each COA against the same enemy COA or environmental situation•Use the same wargaming technique with each COA•Use the same facilitator to wargame each COA

This allows you to compare results under the same conditions

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COA Sketch and Narrative

•Each COA should have:– “cartoon” sketch of the planned actions– narrative describing the operation in chronological order

Type of operation Main and supporting efforts Scheme of Maneuver Priority of Fire or Support (if applicable) Reserve Can describe in terms of deep, close, and rear or decisive, shaping, and supporting

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Example #3

CTF conducts peace enforcement operations in support of the Boise Accords along the Tierra Del Oro (TDO)-Sonora border. Phase I CTF moves into AO and establishes bases in TDO to support Phase II. Phase II CTF establishes no-fly zone and zone of separation along the the border area. Phase III CTF conducts transition to UN PKF. Phase IV CTF redeploys through established bases in TDO.

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Methods

•Box•Avenue in Depth•Belt•List of Critical Events

3

2

1

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Techniques

•Action / Reaction / Counter Action•Synchronization Matrix

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Temporary solution becomes permanent

Action/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTIONREACTION/CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION

Replace wreckedBridge withMilitary bridge

-Identify broken infrastructure to Min. of Trans. -Follow up before dismantling military bridge

Provide Aid to IDPs

Additional people move to IDP locations seeking food

-Limit camp size-Build camps near known population centers-Explain short duration of camps to IDPs

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Simplified Sync Matrix

ACTOR

MINT

MND

MEF

MFAIC

EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT

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Smarter not Harder

•The “facilitator” is the referee – mind the clock. Allocate time for each critical event and stick to your schedule!!•RECORD, RECORD, RECORD•Identify problems, fix them later•Come prepared–Worksheets pre filled out – as much as possible–“Draft” Synch matrix

•Did you adhere to higher commander’s intent?•Know that the Wargame will modify your COA!!! Embrace the changes.

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DiscussionDiscussion

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Wargaming Guidance

•Test the COA with 60,000 IDPs at Kampong Thom and 40,000 IDPs at Prey Veng.•Use conditions worse than the 2000 flood levels as the threat environment.•Use List of Critical Events as the method

–COA 1 – Events are: RGC response to Kampong Thom (Main Effort), RGC response to Prey Veng, Arrival of ASEAN/MPAT support to Sihanoukville and Phnom Penh.

–COA 2 – Events are: RGC response to Prey Veng (Main Effort), RGC response to Kampong Thom, Arrival of ASEAN/MPAT support to Phnom Penh.