Country Risk Assessments - June 2015
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COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENTS UPDATE CARTE DES RISQUES DANS LE MONDE JUNE 2015 WORLDWIDE RISK MAP BIG WINNERS: Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda PORTUGAL A4 ALGERIA A4 BARHEIN A4 CHINA A4 VIETNAM B MADAGASCAR C TANZANIA B SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES: is the risk of bad economic weather high? number of exported products > 100 x3 between 2000 and 2013 ETHIOPIA Diversification of the economy through the manufacturing sector UGANDA share of transport and communications services has increased since 2005 and is > 10% of GDP share of financial services has increased since 2005 and is > 5% of GDP share of exports of services has increased since 2000 and is > 40% of GDP KEY FIGURES ALGERIA Public deficit reached 7% of GDP in 2014 and should continue to deteriorate in 2015, due to a combined fall in oil receipts and the level of public spending. PORTUGAL After Portugal’s exit from the bailout plan, the country sees an improvement in its fiscal position and a rebalancing of its external accounts. Growth should reach 1.5 % in 2015 and 2016. On the business side: higher margins, decline in bankruptcies and satisfactory payment experiences. CZECH REPUBLIC The growth of the Czech economy should increase and reach a comfortable level this year and in 2016 (respectively 2.5% and 2.8%). CANADA The oil price drop hampers Canada’s growth: -0.1 % in 1Q 2015. Despite the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, the current account deficit worsened. The extractive industries are in difficulty, and investment will be delayed. The real estate sector appears overvalued. CHINA The level of the private sector debt has been increasing: 207 % of GDP in early 2014 compared to 130% of GDP in 2008 and non-performing loans are on the rise. Solvency of the most fragile players needs to be watched, especially within industries experiencing overcapacities (cement or steel sectors) and real estate market (real estate investment is slowing and property prices are declining). VIETNAM Improvement in the economic performance (6% growth in GDP in 2014) and an acceleration in private consumption, thanks to low inflation. The external risk has reduced the current account surplus and the exchange reserves progress. SOUTH AFRICA A4 CZECH REPUBLIC A3 GABON B AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH 5% since 2008 OIL 11% of GDP in 2013 FUEL 53% of exports COMMODITIES* 80% of exports HIGH DEPENDENCE ON RAW MATERIALS, essentially OIL Find all our publications on www.coface.com Follow us on • A long-term growth: 7% average GDP growth in 2014 • Without being penalised in the short term by the fall in raw materials prices THANKS TO: KENYA Three advantages in the services field E The drop in the price of their exported products is therefore less than that of their imported products 13 COUNTRIES SLIGHTLY AFFECTED BY THE CURRENT DROP IN OIL PRICES * Fuels (essentially oil), minerals, metals, precious stones and food items / agricultural raw materials SOUTH AFRICA The growth slowdown should continue, partly due to shortages in electricity production. The unemployment level, high inflation and public debt are a matter of concern. CANADA A1 CORPORATE DEFAULT PROBABILITY A1 Very low risk A2 Low risk A3 Quite acceptable risk A4 Acceptable risk B Significant risk C High risk D Very high risk Country under positive watch list Country under negative watch list n Upgrade or positive watch n Downgrade or negative watch net exporters of renewable raw materials net importers of non-renewable raw materials BOTH AND
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Every month Coface publish a new update about Worldwide Risks.
Transcript of Country Risk Assessments - June 2015
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENTS UPDATE
C A R T E D E S R I S Q U E S DA N S L E M O N D E
JUNE 2015
WO R L DW I D E R I S K M A P
BIG WINNERS: Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda
PORTUGAL
A4
ALGERIA
A4BARHEIN
A4
CHINA
A4
VIETNAM
BMADAGASCAR
C
TANZANIA
B
SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES: is the risk of bad economic weather high?
number of exported products > 100
x3 between 2000 and 2013
ETHIOPIA
Diversification of the economy through the manufacturing sector
UGANDA
share of transport and communications services has increased since 2005 and is > 10% of GDP
share of financial services has increased since 2005 and is > 5% of GDPshare of exports of services has increased since 2000 and is > 40% of GDP
KEY FIGURES
ALGERIAPublic deficit reached 7% of GDP in 2014 and should continue to deteriorate in 2015, due to a combined fall in oil receipts and the level of public spending.
PORTUGALAfter Portugal’s exit from the bailout plan, the country sees an improvement in its fiscal position and a rebalancing of its external accounts. Growth should reach 1.5 % in 2015 and 2016. On the business side: higher margins, decline in bankruptcies and satisfactory payment experiences.
CZECH REPUBLIC The growth of the Czech economy should increase and reach a comfortable level this year and in 2016 (respectively 2.5% and 2.8%).
CANADAThe oil price drop hampers Canada’s growth: -0.1 % in 1Q 2015. Despite the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, the current account deficit worsened. The extractive industries are in difficulty, and investment will be delayed. The real estate sector appears overvalued.
CHINAThe level of the private sector debt has been increasing: 207 % of GDP in early 2014 compared to 130% of GDP in 2008 and non-performing loans are on the rise. Solvency of the most fragile players needs to be watched, especially within industries experiencing overcapacities (cement or steel sectors) and real estate market (real estate investment is slowing and property prices are declining).
VIETNAMImprovement in the economicperformance (6% growth in GDP in 2014) and an acceleration in private consumption, thanks to low inflation. The external risk has reduced the current account surplus and the exchange reserves progress.
SOUTH AFRICA
A4
CZECH REPUBLIC
A3
GABON
B
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
5% since 2008
OIL
11% of GDP in 2013
FUEL
53% of exports
COMMODITIES*
80% of exports
HIGH DEPENDENCE ON RAW MATERIALS, essentially OIL
Find all our publications on www.coface.com Follow us on
• A long-term growth: 7% average GDP growth in 2014
• Without being penalised in the short term by the fall in raw materials prices
THANKS TO:
KENYA Three advantages in the services field
E The drop in the price of their exported products is therefore less than that of their imported products
13 COUNTRIES SLIGHTLY AFFECTED BY THE CURRENT DROP IN OIL PRICES
* Fuels (essentially oil), minerals, metals, precious stones and food items / agricultural raw materials
SOUTH AFRICAThe growth slowdown should continue, partly due to shortages in electricity production. The unemployment level, high inflation and public debt are a matter of concern.
CANADA
A1
CORPORATE DEFAULT PROBABILITY
A1 Very low riskA2 Low riskA3 Quite acceptable riskA4 Acceptable riskB Significant riskC High riskD Very high risk Country under positive watch list Country under negative watch listn Upgrade or positive watchn Downgrade or negative watch
net exporters of renewable raw materials
net importers of non-renewable raw materials
BOTH
AND
