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Transcript of Country Hedging
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Harvestland1/13/2012
Compiled by: Kurt Legred
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Reuters Weekly CRB Index
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Monthly Continuous Commodity Index
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Baltic Dry Freight Index - weekly
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Weekly Dry Ships Stock
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Weekly U.S. Dollar Index
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Monthly U.S. Dollar Index
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
World Shipping Lanes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Supply and Demand
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Planted Acres 80.2 77.4 79.6 75.8 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.6 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9
Harvested Acres 72.6 70.5 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0
Yield 134.4 133.8 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 151.1 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2
Sept 1 Stocks 1,308 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,303 1,624 1,672 1,708 1,128
Production 9,759 9,431 9,915 9,507 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,074 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358
Imports 19 15 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 18 14 10 28 15
Total Supply 11,086 11,233 11,640 11,416 10,577 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,395 13,730 14,774 14,183 13,501
Ethanol 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,000
Domestic Usage 7,318 7,577 7,805 7,931 7,898 8,335 8,848 9,122 9,086 10,336 10,199 11,079 11,220 11,0105
Exports 1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889 1,592 1,897 1,814 2,147 2,125 2,435 1,859 1,987 1,835 1,650
Total Usage 9,301 9,514 9,746 9,820 9,490 10,232 10,662 11,269 11,211 12,771 12,058 13,066 13,055 12,655
Carry-Out 1,785 1,719 1,894 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,968 1,303 1,624 1,672 1,708 1,128 846
Stocks/Use 19.2% 18.1% 19.4% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.7% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 6.7%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Corn Supply/DemandJan 12 USDA Jan 12 USDA Jan. 1 CHI est.
2010/11 2011/12 2011/12Planted Acres 88.2 91.9 91.9Harvested Acres 81.4 84.0 83.9Yield 152.8 147.2 146.3
Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128 1,128Production 12,447 12,358 12,277Imports 28 15 18
Total Supply 14,182 13,501 13,423
Feed/Residual 4,792 4,600 4,680F/S/I 6,428 6,405 6,419Domestic Use 11,220 11,005 11,099Ethanol for fuel 5,021 5,000 5,035Exports 1,835 1,650 1,627
Total Usage 13,054 12,655 12,726
Ending Stocks 1,128 846 697Stocks/Use Ratio 8.6% 6.7% 5.5%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn planted acres by county
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Planted Acres
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201170.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
80.981.8
78.3
93.6
86.0 86.4
88.2
91.9
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Harvested Acres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201140
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
72.670.5
72.468.8 69.3 70.9
73.6 75.1
70.6
86.5
78.6 79.581.4
Mil
lio
n A
cres
84.0
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Yield Change: November to Final
Last year’s October yield cut was the 2nd largest on record.
0.8%1.2%
0.1%
-0.4%
2.8%
-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%
1.7%
-2.3%
0.1%
-0.2%
0.5%0.2%
1.1%
-0.5%-0.6%
0.1%
1.3%
-0.7%
0.1%
-0.3%
-1.4%-1.5%
0.1%
1.1%
-1.0%
0.3%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Yield
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
134.4 133.8136.9 138.2
129.3
142.2
160.4
148.0149.1
151.1153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
Bu
shel
s p
er A
cre
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Production
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
9,7599,431
9,9159,507
8,967
10,089
11,807
11,11410,535
13,074
12,092
13,092
12,447 12.348
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Exports
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
1,9831,937 1,941
1,889
1,592
1,8971,814
2,147 2,125
2,435
1,859
1,987
1,835
1,650
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Domestic Use
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
7,318 7,577 7,805 7,931 7,8988,335
8,848 9,122 9,086
10,336 10,199
11,079 11,220 11,005
1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889 1,592 1,897 1,814 2,147 2,125 2,4351,859 1,987 1,835 1,650
Domestic Use
Exports
Mill
ion
Bu
sh
els
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn Ground for Ethanol
02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
9961167
1323
1603
2117
3026
3677
4568
5021 5000
Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Feed and Residual 1.390bb less than 2007
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
5,4725,664
5,838 5,8775,558
5,798
6,162 6,141
5,600
5,999
5,246 5,140
4,7924,600
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Feed vs FSI
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
5,472 5,664 5,838 5,8775,558
5,7986,162 6,141
5,6005,999
5,24
6
5,140
4,7924,600
1,846 1,913 1,967 2,0542,340
2,5372,686
2,981
3,486
4,337
4,953
5,939
6,428 6,410
Feed F/S/I
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Corn F,S, I
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1,846 1,913 1,967 2,0542,340
2,537 2,6862,981
3,486
4,337
4,953
5,939
6,430 6,405
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Ending Stocks
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,7851,719
1,894
1,596
1,087
958
2,114
1,968
1,303
1,624 1,672 1,708
1,128
848
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Stocks/Use ratio1995 was at 4.98%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
19.2%18.1%
19.4%
16.3%
11.5%
9.4%
19.8%
17.5%
11.6%12.7%
13.9%13.1%
8.6%
6.7%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Carryout vs Average Farm Price
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
1,7851,719
1,894
1,596
1,087
958
2,114
1,968
1,303
1,624 1,672 1,708
1,128
8431.94 1.93 1.83 1.93
2.32 2.422.06 1.98
3.04
4.20 4.06
3.55
5.18
6.70
Carry-Out Avg. Farm Price
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
World Corn Prod and Ending Stocks
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
605.31 606.72 588.26599.349999999999600.99 623
712.270000000001696.859999999998711.05
792.44 798.82 819.61 828.69868.06
121.93171.5 153.91 129.75 122.25 130.51
103.61 125.11 108.74 129.86 149.07 144.05 129.04 121.57
Production
End. Stox
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
29.9%28.6%
31.8%
25.4%
28.6%
24.8%
29.6%29.0%
32.9%32.0%
28.7%
24.2%
20.2%
16.2%
19.1%17.7%
15.1%17.0%
18.8%17.5%
15.2%14.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio
World production higher on the U.S. production increase. Foreign production down slightly. Argentina down 3 mmt, and Ukraine up 1.5. World import demand raised. Chinese imports were raised 1 mmt to 4 mmt. The stocks-to-use ratio went from 14.6% last month to 14.8% this month.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
China Corn Production and Imports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
104.3
133.0 128.0
106.0 114.0 121.3 115.8
130.3 139.4
151.6 152.3
165.9 164.0 177.3
191.75
0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.05 1.3 0.98 4.0
Year
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Argentina Corn Prod and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
19.4
13.5
17.2 15.4 14.7 15.5 15.0
20.5
15.8
22.5 22.0
15.5
23.3 22.5
26.0
11.7
7.9
12.0 9.7
10.8 11.2 10.9
14.6
9.5
15.3 14.8
10.3
16.5 15.0
18.5
Year
Mil
lio
n
To
nn
es
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Brazil Corn Production and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
30.1 32.4 31.6
41.5
35.5
47.6
42.8
35.0
41.7
51.0
58.6
51.0
56.1 57.5 61.0
0.0 0.0 0.4
6.5
1.9 5.2 4.1
0.7 4.5
10.8 7.8 7.1
11.6 9.0 8.5
Year
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Mexico Production and Imports
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
22.05
19.50
22.35 23.60
24.23
20.37 21.13
20.50
5.95 6.79
8.94 9.56
7.76 8.30 8.00
9.80
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
South Korea Production and Imports
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
8.63 8.49 8.74
9.31
7.19
8.46 8.11 8.00
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Japan Imports
04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-1215.00
15.20
15.40
15.60
15.80
16.00
16.20
16.40
16.60
16.80
16.49
16.62 16.71
16.61 16.53
15.98
15.66
16.10
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
200
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
mill
ion
bush
els
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
U.S. Corn Export Commitments
Export commitments are 6.6% behind last year.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-$0.20
-$0.10
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
Gross Ethanol Margins per GallonEastern Corn Belt
Monthly averages:
September $.25
October $.41
November $.51
December $.01
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Weekly production jumped up this past week.39.65
31.00
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00
41.00
mill
ion
gallo
ns/d
ayWeekly Ethanol Production
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
9961,168
1,3231,603
2,119
3,049
3,709
4,568
5,021 5,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
20
02
/03
20
03
/4
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
millio
n b
us
he
ls
corn marketing year
corn needed to meet renewable biofuel portion of RFS
corn for ethanol
Corn Used for Ethanol
The USDA is estimating corn use for ethanol will decline this marketing year despite an increase in usage during the first quarter.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Year-on-Year Change in Monthly Ethanol ProductionUSDA Mktg. Yr. Change in Corn Usage
% Change: Ethanol Production
Ethanol production for December looks like it will be up about 5% from last December.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-$1.00
-$0.80
-$0.60
-$0.40
-$0.20
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
Ethanol-RBOB Gasoline
Ethanol premium to gasoline
Ethanol discount to gasoline
Ethanol blending margins are strong following the loss of the tax credit.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
mill
ion
gallo
nsU.S. Monthly Ethanol Exports
November data will be published on January 13.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Monthly DDG Exports
DDG export in October were off 22% from the previous Oct.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
tmt
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Non-Comm.
Index
Net Fund Positions-CBOT CornCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Non-Comm. Corn Net Position-AnnualCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-800,000
-700,000
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007
2008
2009
2010
Commercial Corn Net Position-Annual CIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
March 2012 CME Corn Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
July 2012 CME Corn Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
December 2012 CME Corn Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
CME Continuous Monthly Corn Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybean Supply/DemandJan. 12 USDA Jan. 12 USDA Jan. 1 CHI est.
2010/11 2011/12 2011/12Planted Acres 77.4 75.0 75.0Harvested Acres 76.6 73.6 73.7Yield 43.5 41.5 41.5
Beginning Stocks 151 215 215Production 3,329 3,056 3,057Imports 14 15 13
Total Supply 3,495 3,285 3,285
Crush 1,648 1,615 1,635Exports 1,501 1,275 1,274Seed 87 88 88Residual 43 32 27
Total Usage 3,280 3,010 3,024
Ending Stocks 215 275 260Stocks/Use Ratio 6.6% 9.1% 8.6%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Soybeans Planted by County
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Soybean Supply and Demand
94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01--02 02--03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
Planted Acres 61.7 62.6 64.2 70 72 73.7 74.3 74.1 73.9 73.4 75.2 72 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75
Harvested Acres 60.8 61.5 63.3 69.1 70.4 72.4 72.4 73 72.5 72.5 74 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.7
Yield 41.4 35.3 37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 39.6 38 33.9 42.2 43 42.7 41.7 39.7 44 43.5 41.5
Sept 1 Stocks 209 335 183 132 200 348 290 248 208 178 112 256 449 573 206 138 151 215
Production 2,729 2,174 2,380 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,758 2,891 2,756 2,454 3,124 3,063 3,188 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,056
Imports 5 4 9 5 4 4 4 2 5 6 6 3 9 10 12 15 14 15
Total Supply 2,943 2,513 2,572 2,826 2,945 3,006 3,052 3,141 2,969 2,638 3,242 3,322 3,646 3,260 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,286
Crush 1,403 1,370 1,434 1,595 1,592 1,579 1,641 1,700 1,615 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,806 1,801 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,615
Exports 861 847 885 898 851 973 1,000 1,063 1,045 885 1,103 947 1,118 1,161 1,283 1,501 1,501 1,275
Seed/Feed 88 91 92 93 93 90 91 89 89 92 88 93 78 93 90 90 87 88
Residual 37 18 29 35 57 74 73 82 41 19 99 95 71 -1 12 18 44 32
Total Usage 2,389 2,326 2,440 2,621 2,593 2,716 2,805 2,934 2,790 2,526 2,986 2,874 3,073 3,054 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,011
Carry-Out 554 187 132 205 352 290 247 207 179 112 256 448 573 206 138 151 215 275
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybean Production
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1,861
2,099
1,9431,938
1,549
1,9241,9261,987
2,190
1,870
2,515
2,174
2,380
2,6892,7412,654
2,7582,891
2,756
2,454
3,1243,0633,188
2,676
2,967
3,3593,329
3,056
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybean Yield
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201125
30
35
40
45
28.1
34.133.3
33.9
27.0
32.334.1
34.3
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9 38.9
36.6
38.139.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.0 42.7
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
41.5
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Soybean Yield Change: November to Final
4th biggest percentage decline in 2011, and the biggest since 1995.
-1.4%
-0.3%
-1.5%
-0.6%
1.5%
-1.5%
1.2%
2.1%
0.8%
-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%
-0.8%-0.8%
0.8%
-0.3%
0.3%0.5%
1.3%
0.3%
-0.9%
0.9%
-0.2%
1.0%0.8%
1.6%
-0.9%
0.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
mill
ion
bush
els
2007/08 2008/092009/10 2010/112011/12
U.S. Bean Export Commitments
Export commitments are 31% behind last year.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Soybean-Exports vs Domestic Use
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
847 885 898 851973 1,000
1,063 1,045
885
1,103
947
1,118 1,1611,283
1,501 1,501
1,275
1,4791,555
1,723 1,742 1,7431,805
1,8711,745
1,641
1,883 1,927 1,9551,893
1,7641,860
1,779 1,735
Exports
Domestic Use
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Crush
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1,3701,434
1,595 1,592 1,5791,641
1,7001,615
1,530
1,6961,739
1,806 1,801
1,6621,752
1,648 1,615
Year
Mill
ion
bu
sh
els
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
187
132
205
352
290247
207179
112
256
448
573
206
138 151
215275
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybeans Stocks/Use Ratio
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
8%
5%
8%
14%
11%
9%
7%6%
4%
9%
16%
19%
7%
5% 4%
7% 6%
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Soybeans-Carryout vs Average farm Price19
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00Carryoutave farm price
year
mil
lio
n b
ush
els
pri
ce
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
15.6%
22.7%
20.3%20.7%20.0%
21.0%20.8%
18.1%18.9%
15.8%
19.0%
14.4%
11.9%
19.0%18.4%
19.0%19.6%19.3%
22.4%
20.0%
23.7%24.7%
27.5%
22.4%
19.3%
25.0%
27.3%
24.5%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
World Soybean Stocks-to-Use Ratio
World stocks decline slightly following smaller production estimates. Stocks-to-use ratio went from 24.8% to 24.5%.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
World Beans Prod. and Ending Stocks
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
158.02 159.81 159.88175.1
184.87197.31
186.75
215.72 220.54237.54
221.21211.96
260.85 264.18 257.00
21.64 26.66 27.02 30.9 32.14 39.72 35.6648.36 53.35
62.6952.89
42.5859.41
68.37 63.43
Production
End. Stox
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
s
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Brazil Soy Production and exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
32.50 31.3034.20
39.0043.50
52.50 51.00 53.00
57.00 59.0061.00 57.80
69.00
75.50 74.0
8.80 8.90 9.3012.30
15.0020.40 19.80 20.14
25.9123.49 25.36
29.99 28.58 29.55
39.00
Year
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Argentina Soy Production and exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
18.70 20.00 20.20
27.80 30.00
35.5033.00
39.00 40.50
48.8046.20
32.00
54.50
49.0050.50
3.20 3.20 3.505.50 6.00
8.706.70
9.577.25
9.5613.84
5.59
13.099.21 9.8
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
China Bean Production and Imports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
14.73 15.15 14.29 15.40 15.41 16.5115.39
17.40 16.35 15.9714.00 15.54 14.98 15.10 13.50
2.94 3.86
10.1113.25
10.39
21.4216.93
25.80 28.3228.73
37.8241.10
50.34
52.34 56.50
Year
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
mm
tMonthly Chinese Soybean Imports
Imports for the first three months of the marketing year (Oct.-Dec.)are 2% ahead of the first three months of 2010/11.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
March 2012 Soybean Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
November 2012 CME Soybean Futures
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Export Commitments: % of Final
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%2011/12
2003-2011 average
Average based on final FAS totals; 2011/12 based on January WASDE estimate
Commitments are in-line with the new USDA estimate of 1,275 mb.
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and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
mm
tMonthly Chinese Soybean Imports
Imports for the first three months of the marketing year (Oct.-Dec.)are 2% ahead of the first three months of 2010/11.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1702008
2009
2010
2011
NOPA Crush
Adjusted since April 2011 for membership change
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
CME Nearby Soybean Crush
Monthly averages:
August $.33
September $.34
October $.40
November $48
December $.47
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
New-Crop Soybean/Corn Ratio
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
October November December January February March
2011
2012
2007-2011 avg
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
mill
ion
acre
sCRP Enrollment
National CRP enrollment will decline about 1.6 million acres for 2012
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
2012 CRP Enrollment ChangeTop 10 Changes by State as of November Update
-400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0
MONTANA
NORTH DAKOTA
KANSAS
TEXAS
MINNESOTA
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA
COLORADO
ALABAMA
thousand acres
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000Non-Comm.
Index
Net Fund Positions-CME SoybeansCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Non-Comm. Soybeans Net Position-AnnualCIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Commercial Soybean Net Position-Annual CIT Report - Futures and Options Combined
-350,000
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0Ja
n
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
May
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
Oct
Nov
Nov
Dec
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
<$9.80
$9.80-$11.13
$11.13-$12.51
$12.51-$13.84
>$13.84
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
prob
abili
ty
3 Month Price ForecastApril2012 Average Nearby CME Soybean Price
Key assumptions:• The majority of any benefit to
production losses this season in South America would occur next fall.
• Bean/corn ratio <2
Central forecast:$11.82
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness
and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. Country Hedging, Inc. bases its
recommendations solely on the judgment of Country Hedging, Inc. personnel.
Upcoming or just past USDA reports – 2012
• Jan 12 --- Crop Production, Annual Crop Production Summary, Winter Wheat seeding, Dec 1 Grain stocks
• Feb 9 --- Crop Production• March 9 --- Crop Production• March 30 --- Prospective 2012 Planting, March 1 Grain Stocks• April 10 --- Crop Production