COUNTRY BRIEF: VENEZUELA

THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY?

VENEZUELA: PROFILE, 2010

Population (millions) 29GNP (U.S. billions) 394GNP/capita ($ U.S.) 11,630Poverty rate (%) 27.8Life expectancy (years) 74

WHY VENEZUELA?

An apparently stable two-party democracy Rómulo Betancourt and Generation of 1928 Pact of Punto Fijo (1958)

No military threatAwash in petroleum (“Venezuela Saudita”)

OPEC (1960) PdVSA

Positive international profile Socialist International Diplomacy in Central America/1980s

SEEDS OF RESENTMENT

Socioeconomic inequalityReliance on state patronage

Petroleum as “devil’s excrement”

Concentration of power and wealthRural-to-urban migrationPartidocracia:

Absence of clear programs Closed-list slates Ageing leadership

POLITICAL DECAY

Carlos Andrés Pérez (CAP) Neoliberal reforms and caracazo Attempted coups 1992 Impeachment 1993

Voter disenchantment Turnout: 96% (1973) to 60% (1990s) AD + COPEI vote share: 90% (1970s-80s) to 45% (1993) to 11%

(1998) Rafael Caldera wins as independent in 1993

The Hugo Chávez Story

1989: Caracazo1992: Failed military coup (amnesty 1994)1998: Wins presidential election1999: Installs new constitution2002: Survives attempted coup2004: Attains support in referendum2006: Wins second presidential term2007: Declines renewal of RCTV license2007: Constitutional referendum fails2008: Oil climbs to >$100 per barrel2008: Referendum succeeds2012: Campaign for re-election; cancer treatment2013: Dies

THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION

Domestic agenda: Strengthening state Redistributing wealth Monopolizing power

Global agenda: Opposing U.S. hegemony (especially under GWB) Building continental solidarity Becoming leader of developing world Consolidating oil-producing alliances

INTERNAL WEAKNESSES

Judiciary, rule of law and “due process”Absence of representative institutions—e.g., courts,

legislature, unionsConcentration of presidential powerChávez’s charismaEconomic inefficiencies

RECENT ISSUES

Leadership: Small circle of advisers Accusations of corruption Nicolás Maduro as successor

Economic performance: Rationing of water and electricity Inefficiencies

Foreign policy: Threats of war with Colombia Rise of Lula (and Dilma) and Brazil

Curtailing opposition: Redistricting for elections of National Assembly Shutdown of RCTV International

WHY ELSEWHERE?

Juxtaposition of inequality and wealthOrganizational basis for mass mobilizationTiming (why ca. 2005?):

Changing approach to electoral politics (rejection of revolutionary option) Constraints and moderation resulting from “pacts”

International incentives: Respect for democracy Neoliberal economics and regional integration “… the same factors that prevent the left from pursuing more

radical economic policies are also responsible for the ability of the left to remain in power without provoking antisystemic behavior on the part of opposing political forces.”

AND THE FUTURE…?

“… the left is back, and it will remain competitive in much of Latin America well into the future”

Threats and challenges: Corruption scandals Concerns with public safety Break with policy moderation Politicization of military

“The future of the left in Latin America will largely depend on its ability to strike a balance between the pragmatic need for moderation and the moral imperative to pursue strategies for poverty reduction, redistribution, and development.”

N

__%__ __(millions)__

1980 40.5 136

1990 48.3 200

2002 44.0 221

2010 32.1 180

UPDATE: POVERTY LEVELS

CHANGES IN INEQUALITY

1980-2000 = rising increasing lower-higher skilled gap uneven effects of international trade absence of public policies

2000-2006 = declining (slightly) reduced lower-higher skilled gap (due to education) government programs (including remittances) 2007-09 unclear impact of global crash still high by world standards

QUESTIONS

1. Do these developments mean that radical policies are unnecessary?2. Or might they provide more opportunity for radical policy (e.g., land reform)?3. Does moderation mean survival of the “left”—or the extinction of the left?4. What impact might come from political change in Cuba—or Venezuela?