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Council of the European Union General Secretariat

READING REFERENCES 2019

Council Library

ESPAS

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

Selected publications

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ABOUT ESPAS

The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) provides a framework for

cooperation and consultation at administrative level, on a voluntary basis, between the

European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, and

the European External Action Service, with the European Investment Bank, the Committee

of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee as observers, to work

together on medium- and long-term trends facing or relating to the European Union.

The objectives of the ESPAS process are to: provide an inter-institutional system for

identifying these trends, and to provide common analyses of probable outcomes on major

issues for policy-makers; promote closer working cooperation between the services of the

various EU institutions and bodies which are devoted to the analysis of these trends;

provide regular input to the EU institutions to nourish strategic thinking, including reaching

out to academics, think tanks and other stake-holders to provide a broad perspective;

develop links with other countries and organisations undertaking global trends work, in

order to benefit from their expertise, as well as providing its own expertise to other

countries seeking to follow strategic trends and changes; and build and maintain an open

website and a ‘global repository’ for all relevant information to facilitate access to citizens,

linking the site to other working websites on long-term trends across the globe.

Please note:

This bibliography is not exhaustive; it provides a selection of resources made by the Council Library. Most of the titles are hyperlinked to Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Library, where you can find additional materials on the subject. Access to some resources might be limited to registered Council Library users or to users in subscribing institutions.

The contents are the sole responsibility of their authors. Resources linked from this bibliography do not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council.

Reuse of the covers is prohibited, they belong to the respective copyrightholders.

Additional resources may be added to this list by request - please contact the Council Library to suggest a title: library@consilium.europa.eu

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Reports

Global trends to 2030 : challenges and choices for

Europe Florence Gaub

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis

System, 2019

Available at Council Library Main Collection (105635) Online access "What role will Europe play in our fast-changing world? How

can the European Union ensure that it does not end up a

middle power, caught between the United States and

China? What will it take for Europe to hold its destiny in its

own hands in 2030? Against this backdrop, the ESPAS

Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe

report is a contribution to support policy- and decision-makers as they navigate the world into

2030."

Trends in artificial intelligence and big data Leopold Schmertzing

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2019

Online access

"This ideas paper looks at the political, economic, social,

geopolitical and technological present and possible future

status of AI and big data to then pose a number of questions

to policy makers. the future analysis is divided into trends,

uncertainties and possible disruptions to anticipate likely,

plausible and possible future events. This analysis is meant

to enrich the interinstitutional debate provided by the

ESPAS network and to improve the resilience of EU's AI

startegies and policies."

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Global trends 2030 : new ways out of poverty and

exclusion Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2019

Online access

"This paper analyses the issues of poverty and exclusion in

the context of the major trends that characterise the present

and will shape the near future. It also explores the

uncertainty that emerging trends may pose for EU societies

in terms of poverty and exclusion, and looks at options and

alternative paths to counteract these two phenomena."

The future of mobility and migration within and

from Sub-Saharan Africa Loren B Landau ; Caroline Wanjiku Kihato

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access "African migration - its drivers, dynamics, and

consequences - increasingly features in global policy

debates. Concerns vary widely, including everything from

economic and human development, human rights, and

human and state security. For OECD countries, particularly

members of the European Union, there are additional

concerns. These include securing labour required to

support an aging European population and expensive social welfare system; upholding

commitments to human dignity; maintaining a positive reputation and influence throughout the

‘global south’; and politically derived imperative to starkly limit spontaneous movements of

Africans across Europe’s external boundaries."

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Global trends to 2030 : shaping the future in a

fast-changing world Ricardo Borges de Castro ; Eamonn Noonan ; Rachel Smit

(eds.)

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access "Global power shifts, pressure on liberal democracies,

challenges to global governance, the transformation of

economic models and of the very fabric of societies, new

uses and misuses of technology, humanity’s growing

ecological footprint: the world may be on the cusp of a new

geopolitical, geo-economic and geotechnological order.

Against this backdrop, how can the European Union ensure that it holds its destiny in its own

hands? What must it do to better prepare and shape the future, tackling emerging challenges and

seizing the opportunities that will arise?"

Global trends to 2030: the future of work and

workplaces Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access

"The future of work is here; in others, it is shrouded in

uncertainty or heralded with great expectations. Throughout

human history, work has changed, as have societies.

Transformations in how and where work is conducted, by

whom it is performed and under what conditions, as well as

how it is remunerated and valued, have come hand in hand

with changes in individual and family life, social cohesion

and wellbeing, and civic and political life. Today, a number

of observed mega-trends are again shifting the tectonics of work: Pervasive digital technology is

opening up boundless new opportunities while at the same time blurring workplace boundaries

and impacting human behaviours and expectations in ways that may still be unknown."

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Global trends to 2030: the future of migration

and integration Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access

"International migration has major implications for societies

and economies. This is true at global level, and, perhaps

even more so, at European level. The special impact on

Europe is partly down to its history. Until just two

generations ago, most European countries recorded much

more emigration than immigration. As a result, there are no

‘classical’ immigration countries on the European

continent, comparable to the US, Canada or Australia. This

partly explains why Europe’s migration policies often lack coherence, selectivity and a focus on

socio-economic outcomes. Since the 1990s temporary or permanent admission granted by EU

Member States is dominated more by rights-based and humanitarian considerations (family

reunion, asylum, humanitarian protection) than by economic interests."

Global Trends to 2030: identities and biases in the

digital age Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access

"Digital technologies have opened up ways of discovering

the world, creating an unprecedented access to knowledge

and information. Social media in particular now allow for

unparalleled connectivity of a truly interactive nature. They

help people stay in touch with friends and family, and find

people who share the same passions, interests or beliefs

across borders, facilitating new groups and communities of

interest to form and grow. There is nevertheless growing concern that digital technologies may be

impacting in unforeseen ways on human behaviour and social interactions."

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The future of international trade and investment Eamonn Noonan

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access

"This paper examines current trends, uncertainties and

wild cards in relation to international trade and investment.

It then considers implications for the European Union.

The European Union’s interest remains clear: a rules-

based order is better than a transactional or winner-takes-

all approach to international trade. But it is wise to plan for

the worst, while hoping for the best. The future of

international trade and investment may lie somewhere

between the extremes of the status quo and a reversion to protectionism. This would involve a

thorough revision and rebalancing of multilateral norms, to take account of major global changes

on many fronts."

The future of warfare Leopold Schmertzing

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2018

Online access

"This ideas paper first highlights the most important

global geopolitical, social, technological, economic and

military trends that are influencing warfare today and are

likely to do so in the future. It then looks at possible key

uncertainties surrounding the future of warfare, and ends

with ten questions for policy-makers"

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Shaping the future of geopolitics

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis

System, 2017

Online access "This publication is a unique collection of over 30 original

short essays by participants in the 2017 ESPAS Annual

Meeting which was convened under the theme of

‘Global Trends to 2030: the Making of a New

Geopolitical Order?’." Forward-looking approaches are

all the more important in a world of ‘Geopolitical

Recession’, where multilateralism and the rules-based

international order are under pressure, and new actors

and technologies have the potential to be real

geostrategic game changers. Against this backdrop, how can Europe ensure that it holds its

future in its own hands? What must it do to better prepare for an uncertain future and tackle new

security challenges?"

Shaping the future : thoughts on the future of

society and governance Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2016

Online access "The publication includes over 40 original short essays

addressing the different themes of the 2016 ESPAS

Annual Meeting titled ‘Global Trends to 2030: Society

and Governance’. The diversity of perspectives will

stimulate readers’ thinking about the ways in which

mega-trends, game-changers and our policy and political

choices intersect and what this may mean for the future."

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Global trends to 2030 : can the EU meet the

challenges ahead?

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System,

2015

Online access "Built on the previous reports drawn up under the ESPAS

project to date, this study seeks to map more

comprehensively the five major trends that are likely to

shape the future and will need to be taken into account

by the Union as it defines coherent strategic options for

the next governance cycle. They include: a richer and

older human race characterised by an expanding global

middle class and greater inequalities; a more vulnerable

process of globalisation; a transformative industrial and

technological revolution; a growing nexus of climate change, energy and the competition for

resources; and a changing power, increased interdependence and fragile multilateralism."

Global trends 2030 : citizens in an interconnected

and polycentric world Álvaro de Vasconcelos

Brussels : European Strategy and Policy Analysis System ,

2011

Online access

"This report contains the findings of the European Strategy

and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) research project. The

report identifies several global trends that will shape the

world in 2030. They include: the empowerment of the

individual, which may contribute to a growing sense of

belonging to a single human community; greater stress on

sustainable development against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity and persistent poverty,

compounded by the consequences of climate change; the emergence of a more polycentric world

characterised by a shift of power away from states, and growing governance gaps as the

mechanisms for inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to global public demands."

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