Could Ahmadinejad End Up Under House Arrest_ - Al-Monitor_ the Pulse of the Middle East

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5/4/13 Could Ahmadinejad End Up Under House Arrest? - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/mahmoud-ahmadinejad-house-arrest-iran.html

About This Article

Summary :

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may become

the first former president under

Ayatollah Khamenei to spend part of

his retirement under house arrest,

writes Meir Javendanfar.

Author: Meir Javedanfar

Posted on : April 30 2013

Categories : Originals Iran

Could Ahmadinejad End Up

Under House Arrest?

By: Meir Javedanfar for Al-Monitor Posted on April 30.

Until recently, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad behaved like a boxer who always knew that in fight

against his rivals, the referee (i.e., the Iranian supreme leader) would back him. And he was right. The referee

who clearly favored him, was willing to overlook many things in his favor. In some cases, he also helped him

overtly and covertly. As Khamenei is Iran's most powerful authority, there was little that Ahmadinejad's rivals

could do. Those days are gone.

Ahmadinejad has six weeks left in office six weeks in the highespolitical office he has ever held and is likely ever to hold in his entire

political life. Whats worse for him, however, is that his rivals know that th

supreme leader will no longer be willing to throw fights his way, so they are

going after him, verbally and politically. Until Ahmadinejad leaves office

the pent up anger felt by his rivals for the last eight years will continue to

manifest itself in blows against him, and things could get much worse afte

he leaves office. At that point, the attacks could become more frequen

and more merciless.

Ahmadinejad has two options: to defend himself now, with all his might, totry to deter his rivals from attacking him after he leaves office or to hold hi

fire until after he steps down. Both options have advantages and

disadvantages.

Going after his rivals while in office might deter them from future attacks, but it could also anger the supreme

leader, as elections are a sensitive time for him. This would translate into even less support from Khamenei once

he leaves office. By holding fire until after his term, Ahmadinejad will have much less power and influence at his

disposal. Lack of action might also be interpreted as a sign of weakness by his rivals. This is, indeed, a dilemma.

For now, Ahmadinejad seems to be taking the option to ward off his rivals. This has included threatening toreveal their corrupt dealings and practices and in one case following through on his threat. The latter took place

in early February, when Ahmadinejad aired tapes showing the brother of his rival Ali Larijani asking for bribes

There were also reports by the Iranian website BAZTAB that Ahmadinejad had taped evidence of cheating

during the 2009 elections (oddly enough in his favor). The article that published this report was soon removed

and Ahmadinejad's office denied the story.

Now Ahmadinejad is taking the battle to the next stage: the elections process. For years, the Interior Ministry

has been in charge of overseeing elections. Although the interior minister is typically considered close to the

supreme leader, the president, nevertheless, has some influence in the all-important ministry.
http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/world/middleeast/as-election-nears-ahmadinejads-critics-pile-on.html?_r=0http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://www.npr.org/2013/02/08/171513436/irans-president-draws-long-simmering-feud-out-into-the-openhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/world/middleeast/as-election-nears-ahmadinejads-critics-pile-on.html?_r=0http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/countries/iranhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.html


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Worried about Ahmadinejad using his influence over the Interior Ministry to promote his right-hand

man, Esfandiyar Rahim Mashaei, the Iranian parliament passed a new law for the supervision of elections, and

the Council of Guardians approved it in January this year. According to the law, in supervising elections, the

Interior Ministry will act as part of an Elections Central Executive Committee, which will include the minister o

intelligence, head of the country's judiciary, and an appointee from the Majles. All the involved institutions are

staunchly pro-Khamenei, and in fact, the intelligence minister and the country's top judge are his appointees

Meanwhile, the interior minister has to nominate 30 religious, political, cultural and society personalities to the

oversight committee of the Council of Guardians so that they can be vetted and seven of them appointed to the

Elections Central Executive Committee.

Ahmadinejad saw the new law as a challenge to him by his rivals. To retaliate, he has held off nominating the 30

people to the Council of Guardians committee, although it was requested that he do so in mid-February. Thi

response has raised the ire of Ahmadinejad's rivals so much so that he is being accused of playing dangerou

games and warned that his behavior is preparing for sedition before the elections.

With six weeks before thepresidential elections, Ahmadinejad seems to be trying to use the electoral process

and his remaining influence over it to show his teeth. By doing so, he is also hoping to send a warning to hisrivals. He also seems to be using his influence as political leverage to improve Meshai's chances of being

approved by the Council of Guardians, should he decide to run.

This is a gamble. Should Ahmadinejad continue to drag his feet, Khamenei could simply appoint seven people

himself. Judging by the reported cheating in the 2009 elections, fairness and procedure are not exactly the

supreme leader's priorities.

If such a scenario were to unfold, Ahmadinejad might feel cornered and even more threatened, thus forcing him

to react. This could include revealing more secrets about regime officials, which would lead to even more

infighting and instability while damaging the legitimacy of the entire regime. If so, soon after the electionsAhmadinejad would find himself pursued and possibly under house arrest. This scenario cannot be dismissed

given the sensitivity Khamenei has recently shown to those seen as destablizing elements. More important, the

supreme leader needs to show that he will not stand by while his government officials spy on each other and use

intelligence material to settle scores.

Regardless of what happens, upon leaving office, Ahmadinejad will join the three-member club of forme

presidents who served under Khamenei and then fell out of his favor. Whether Ahmadinejad will be the firs

member of the club to serve part of his retirement under house arrest depends on him.

Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-IsraeliMiddle East analyst. He teaches contemporary Iranian politics athe Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
http://middleeastanalyst.com/about/http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/iran-elections-state-of-confusion.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l12_ir92_majlis_warning_mozaffar_gov_ahmadinejad.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l12_ir92_majlis_warning_mozaffar_gov_ahmadinejad.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l45_ir92_election_executive_commitee.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l45_ir92_election_executive_commitee.shtmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/ahmadinejad-rahim-meshai-iran-presidential-elections.html


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3 comments

What's thisALSO ONAL-MONITOR: THE PULSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu Will Ignore Arab League Land-

Swap Proposal

8 comments a day ago

stardhead Resolution 242 never said 67 borders

were peace lines my god rewrite his tory and

international law will you read

'Israel Has Nothing to Fear'

17 comments 3 days ago

stardhead That's like saying some of my bestfriends are black. Are there sel f hating black people

who are racist? To me if

Ahmadinejads Office Denies Existence of

Tape Exposing Election Fraud

1 comment 4 days ago

deleydel Our vote was s tolen and now thieves

have got to the game of accusation as to who did the

stealing. It seem s that

Khamenei's Criteria For Next Iranian

President

3 comments 16 days ago

Kaal Khamenei will have to choose wis ely. He

needs to choose a person who is both loyal and

who is genuinely

Leave a message...

BestBest CommunityCommunity ShareShare

BoulderFinFan

These elections are a sham. Khamenei decides who the president will be not the

people. The people that vote don't decide elections. The people that count the votes do

jus tmehla

Wonder how long he'd live if he pushed for a free and open press.

sue grimes

How about the death penalty?

0
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