![OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE … · 2019. 9. 23. · 1 [Billing Code 3290-F9] OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE Notice of Product Exclusions: China’s](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/60062597ac7dc93d2f6cce76/office-of-the-united-states-trade-representative-2019-9-23-1-billing-code.jpg)
cottonworks...Tariff Timeline August 2017 U.S. Trade Representative launches an investigation March...
38
Transcript of cottonworks...Tariff Timeline August 2017 U.S. Trade Representative launches an investigation March...
cottonworks.com
@cotton_works
With hundreds of easily searchable resources, we’re your go-to textile tool for discovering what’s possible with cotton.
Type your questions in the Q&A window at any time during the webinar.
Find the presentation slides and other resources at cottonworks.com at the conclusion of the webinar.
! Please turn off your pop-up blocker to participate in this webinar.
WebinarSupport
U.S. & China& the Trade Dispute
Biggest importer/exporter of cotton fiber
Biggest importer/exporter of apparel
World’s biggest two economies
Webinar Outline
Tariff timeline
Tariff lists
Changes in apparel sourcing under tariffs
Tariff TimelineProduct-specific disputesSolar panels, washing machines, steel & aluminum, and autos
Sources: USTR, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Tariff Timeline
August 2017U.S. Trade Representative launches an investigation
March 2018U.S. Trade Representative releases findings indicating that China is conducting unfair trade practices
Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 Grants the president the right to respond to unfair trade practices
July 2018U.S. made threat to hit all imports from China with tariff increases, meaning retailers had more than a year to shift production before increases were implemented
Sources: USTR, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Tariff TimelineList 1$34 billion
25 ppt tariffincrease
ImplementedJuly 2018
List 1 List 1List 2$16 billion
25 ppt tariffincrease
ImplementedAugust 2018
List 3$200 billion
10 ppt tariffincrease
ImplementedSept. 2018
Tariffs roseto 25 ppt inMay 2019
List 4a$112 billion
15 ppt tariff increase
ImplementedSept. 2019
Covers mostapparel imports
List 4b$160 billion
15 ppt tariff increase
Scheduled forDec. 2019, but not implemented
China hits U.S. cotton with 25 ppt tariffincrease
Sources: USTR, Peterson Institute for International Economics Note: ppt = percentage points
List 1 List 1
China hits US cotton with 25 ppt tariffincrease
Tariff TimelineRapprochementBoth sides move away from escalation in early fallPlanned tariff increases on List 4b abandoned
Phase One DealTariff increases on List 4a halved effective Feb. 14
List 4a$112 billion
15 ppt tariff increase
ImplementedSept. 2019
Covers mostapparel Imports
Tariff increase cut to 7.5%
List 4b$160 billion
15 ppt tariff increase
Scheduled forDec. 2019, but not implemented
Sources: USTR, Peterson Institute for International Economics Note: ppt = percentage points
List 1 List 1
China hits US cotton with 25 ppt tariffincrease
Tariff Lists – HS CodesHarmonized System (HS) arose from a need to standardize trade reporting
Participating countries report trade flows using the same HS codes to six digit precision
Additional digits mean additional precision
List 1
China hits US cotton with 25 ppt tariffincrease
Tariff Lists – HS CodesTwo digit categories
are known as chapters
Knit Apparel61
Woven Apparel62 Other Made-Ups
63Women’s & Girls’
Suits, Jackets, Dresses & Bottoms6204
Women’s & Girls’ Bottoms6204.62
W&G Cotton Bottoms6204.62.80
Women’s Blue Denim Jeans6204.62.80.11
Harmonized System (HS) arose from a need to standardize trade reporting
Participating countries report trade flows using the same HS codes to six digit precision
Additional digits mean additional precision
U.S. classification extends to ten digits
Source: US ITC
Tariff Lists – HS CodesHarmonized System (HS) arose from a need to standardize trade reporting
Participating countries report trade flows using the same HS codes to six digit precision
Additional digits mean additional precision
U.S. classification extends to ten digits
U.S. tariff lists built from eight digit codes
Source: USTR
Tariff Lists – HS CodesExample of Tariff Increase
6204.62.80W&G Cotton Bottoms
16.6% pre-increasetariff
= 31.6% tariff on Chinese-made
W&G Jeans
+ 15 ppt increase
Harmonized System (HS) arose from a need to standardize trade reporting
Participating countries report trade flows using the same HS codes to six digit precision
Additional digits mean additional precision
U.S. classification extends to ten digits
U.S. tariff lists built from eight digit codes
Source: US ITC
U.S. Apparel Imports from China
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6all fibers
cotton-dominant
Source: OTEXA, seasonally-adjusted
volume in billion square-meter equivalents
tariffs on apparel start
U.S. Apparel Imports from China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%all fiberscotton-dominant
Source: OTEXA, seasonally-adjusted
volume in billion square-meter equivalents China’s share of U.S. apparel imports
tariffs on apparel start
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6all fibers
cotton-dominant
tariffs on apparel start
U.S. Apparel Imports from China
Source: OTEXA, seasonally-adjusted
Change in Apparel Imports from China (year-over-year Sept.-Dec.)
All Fibers Cotton-Dominant
-22% -28%
China’s share of U.S. apparel imports…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%all fiberscotton-dominant
tariffs on apparel start
U.S. Apparel Imports from China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%China Vietnam
Bangladesh ASEAN
Source: OTEXA, seasonally-adjusted
share of U.S. cotton-dominant apparel importsChange in Apparel Imports from China (year-over-year Sept.-Dec.)
All Fibers Cotton-Dominant
-22% -28%
ASEAN
Vietnam
Bangladesh
U.S. Apparel Imports from China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%China Vietnam
Bangladesh ASEAN
Source: OTEXA, seasonally-adjusted
share of U.S. cotton-dominant apparel importsChange in Apparel Imports from China (year-over-year Sept.-Dec.)
All Fibers Cotton-Dominant
-22% -28%
ASEAN
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Change in Apparel Imports from the world (year-over-year Sept.-Dec.)
All Fibers Cotton-Dominant
-10% -9%Not much change with tariff threats, sharp change with implementation
U.S. Jean Imports
26%
23%13%
7%
7%
25%
Source: OTEXA
China
Women’s & Men’s Jean Imports2018
MexicoBangladesh
Pakistan
Vietnam
Rest of World
U.S. Jean Imports
26%
23%13%
7%
7%
25%
Source: OTEXA
China
Women’s & Men’s Jean Imports2018
MexicoBangladesh
Pakistan
Vietnam
Rest of World
China
-42%
Change in Adult Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-13%
Mexico
-26%Bang.
+7%Pakistan
-2%Vietnam
+27%ROW
+2%
U.S. Jean Imports
20%
17%
16%11%
9%
27%
Source: OTEXA
China
Women’s & Men’s Jean Imports2019 Sept.-Dec.
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Vietnam
Rest of World
China
-42%
Change in Adult Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-13%
Mexico
-26%Bang.
+7%Pakistan
-2%Vietnam
+27%ROW
+2%
Women’s Jean Imports
40%
12%10%
8%
4%
26%China
Women’s Jean Imports2018
Mexico
Pakistan
Rest of World
Source: OTEXABangladesh
Vietnam
China
-41%
Change in Women’s Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-13%
Mexico
-31%Bang.
+13%Pakistan
+15%Vietnam
+28%ROW
-9%40%
12%10%
8%
4%
26%China
Women’s Jean Imports2018
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Vietnam
Rest of World
Source: OTEXA
Women’s Jean Imports
China
-41%
Change in Women’s Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-13%
Mexico
-31%Bang.
+13%Pakistan
+15%Vietnam
+28%ROW
-9%27%
18%
17%
10%
3%
26% China
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan Vietnam
Rest of World
Women’s Jean Imports2019 Sept.-Dec.
Source: OTEXA
Women’s Jean Imports
Men’s Jean Imports
41%
13%13%
6%3%
23%
China
Men’s Jean Imports2018
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan
VietnamRest of World
Source: OTEXA
41%
13%13%
6%3%
23%
China
Men’s Jean Imports2018
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan
VietnamRest of World
China
-46%
Change in Men’s Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-14%
Mexico
-25%Bang.
+2%Pakistan
-16%Vietnam
+23%ROW
+13%
Source: OTEXA
Men’s Jean Imports
35%
16%8%8%
4%
29%
China
Men’s Jean Imports2019 Sept.-Dec.
Mexico
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Vietnam
Rest of World
China
-46%
Change in Men’s Jean Imports year-over-year Sept.-Dec.
World
-14%
Mexico
-25%Bang.
+2%Pakistan
-16%Vietnam
+23%ROW
+13%
Source: OTEXA
Men’s Jean Imports
Source: OTEXA
Cotton-Dom. ProductChina Share
2018Year-over-Year Sept-Dec
China WorldKnit Shirts M&B 9% -20% +6%
W&G 20% -26% -11%
Source: OTEXA
Cotton-Dom. ProductChina Share
2018Year-over-Year Sept-Dec
China WorldKnit Shirts M&B 9% -20% +6%
W&G 20% -26% -11%
Woven Shirts M&B 19% -38% -14%
W&G 32% -29% -11%
Source: OTEXA
Cotton-Dom. ProductChina Share
2018Year-over-Year Sept-Dec
China WorldKnit Shirts M&B 9% -20% +6%
W&G 20% -26% -11%
Woven Shirts M&B 19% -38% -14%
W&G 32% -29% -11%
Non-Denim Bottoms M&B 20% -25% -8%
W&G 37% -33% -15%
Source: OTEXA, *non-suit-type coats
Cotton-Dom. ProductChina Share
2018Year-over-Year Sept-Dec
China WorldKnit Shirts M&B 9% -20% +6%
W&G 20% -26% -11%
Woven Shirts M&B 19% -38% -14%
W&G 32% -29% -11%
Non-Denim Bottoms M&B 20% -25% -8%
W&G 37% -33% -15%
Coats M&B* 42% -38% -11%
W&G 51% -34% -20%
Source: OTEXA, *non-suit-type coats
Cotton-Dom. ProductChina Share
2018Year-over-Year Sept-Dec
China WorldKnit Shirts M&B 9% -20% +6%
W&G 20% -26% -11%
Woven Shirts M&B 19% -38% -14%
W&G 32% -29% -11%
Non-Denim Bottoms M&B 20% -25% -8%
W&G 37% -33% -15%
Coats M&B* 42% -38% -11%
W&G 51% -34% -20%
Dresses W&G 39% -6% -1%
Summary & Implications
Shipments from China have gone down, but so have imports overall
Decrease in apparel demand has consequences upstream in supply chains
When extended across industries, macroeconomic effect is evident
Phase One helpful, but no clear path for a return back to pre-tariff world
NEW: Tariff E-bookCustoms and International Trade Strategy:Classification & Tariff Engineering
Volume I
Submit all final questions now using the Q&A box on your screen.
Please take our brief survey on today’s presentation prior to exiting the webinar.
![OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE … · 1 [Billing Code 3290-F9] OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE [Docket Number USTR-2019-0004] Request for Comments](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/5f4994cb47e1b148053c20a5/office-of-the-united-states-trade-representative-1-billing-code-3290-f9-office.jpg)
![OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE Large … · 1 [Billing Code 3290-F0] OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE Docket No. USTR-2019-0003 Notice of Modification](https://static.fdocuments.us/doc/165x107/6006318e57efca2c15229c6f/office-of-the-united-states-trade-representative-large-1-billing-code-3290-f0.jpg)
