Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University · initial estimate reported on November 1,...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Circular Series FOP 11 13 November 2013

India’s Revised Production and Stock Estimates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14

Mill

ion

480

lb B

ales

Changes from September Estimates

Production Ending Stocks

For the past several years, supply estimates for India have been insufficient to meet utilization. Stronger data-based export and consumption information have raised concerns about India’s production and ending stock estimates. Consequently, USDA has been using a residual estimate in its balance sheet beginning in 2006/07 to reflect the difference between reported supply and demand. Recently, the India Cotton Advisory Board provided a higher production estimate for the 2012/13 crop. USDA adopted this revision. USDA also has raised production and ending stock estimates for 2006/07 through 2011/12, eliminating the residual. Details of the changes to the USDA estimates are shown on page three. Note: The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Cotton: World Markets and Trade reports were not published in October 2013 due to a government shutdown.

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

Overview

The global outlook for 2013/14 is mostly unchanged, with ending stocks up slightly. U.S. production, consumption, and ending stocks are raised. The forecast for the average U.S. farm price was lowered to 74 cents.

Prices The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continue to decline on concerns about China’s reserve policy. 2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK Major Exporters:

• Brazil is raised 200,000 bales to 2.8 million on greater exportable supplies.

• Egypt is cut 100,000 bales to 250,000 on revised data from the previous year.

• Greece is up 100,000 bales to 1.1 million on larger exportable supplies.

Major Importers:

• Egypt is down 225,000 bales to 400,000 on an expected drop in consumption.

• Bangladesh is up 100,000 bales to 3.7 million on lower prices.

• Vietnam is up 150,000 bales to 2.7 million on higher than expected use.

Trade Changes 2012/13 Major Exporters:

• India is raised 100,000 bales to 7.7 million on a larger crop.

Major Importers:

• Egypt is lowered 270,000 bales to 230,000 on lower than expected consumption.

• India is down 100,000 bales to 1.2 million on a larger crop.

Questions may be directed to:

James Johnson (202) 690-1546 [email protected]

Bryan Norrington (202) 720-0139 [email protected]

November 2013

mailto:[email protected]

Explanation of Changes to India Cotton Supply and Demand 2006/07 through 2013/14

The November 2013 cotton estimates for India include historical revisions beginning in 2006/07. USDA’s India supply and demand estimates, which are based mostly on official government data sources, have resulted in July 31 stocks which are too low to support documented consumption and exports during the ensuing months prior to the availability of the next harvest. Previously, USDA addressed this problem by showing residuals in order to keep stocks above estimated minimum thresholds. This month’s changes from the September 2013 estimates include adjustments to production, which permit the elimination of the “residual/loss” in all years. The 2013/14 projection of 29.0 million bales is unchanged from USDA’s September estimate and is marginally below the initial estimate reported on November 1, 2013 by India’s Cotton Advisory Board (CAB). For 2012/13, production is raised 2.0 million bales to 28.5 million, which is consistent with the revision reported by the CAB on November 1. For 2011/12, production is now 1.3 million bales above the CAB estimate, which was last revised in January 2013. Production for the 2006-2010 crops, which in September reflected CAB estimates, is raised 3 percent each year.

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14Beginning Stocks 7,839 7,629 6,704 10,644 9,374 11,174 9,444 8,144

Production 21,800 24,000 22,600 23,800 26,400 27,500 26,500 29,000

Imports 465 600 800 480 450 600 1,300 1,500

Total Supply 30,104 32,229 30,104 34,924 36,224 39,274 37,244 38,644

Exports 4,875 7,500 2,360 6,550 5,000 11,080 7,600 7,000

Use 18,100 18,600 17,750 19,750 20,550 19,750 22,500 23,000

Residual/Loss -500 -575 -650 -750 -500 -1,000 -1,000 -750

Ending Stocks 7,629 6,704 10,644 9,374 11,174 9,444 8,144 9,394

Stock to Use % 33.2 25.7 52.9 35.6 43.7 30.6 27.1 31.3

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14

Beginning Stocks 7,839 7,829 7,029 11,019 9,699 11,799 10,569 10,069

Production 22,500 24,700 23,300 24,500 27,200 29,000 28,500 29,000

Imports 465 600 800 480 450 600 1,200 1,500

Total Supply 30,804 33,129 31,129 35,999 37,349 41,399 40,269 40,569

Exports 4,875 7,500 2,360 6,550 5,000 11,080 7,700 7,000

Use 18,100 18,600 17,750 19,750 20,550 19,750 22,500 23,000

Residual/Loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ending Stocks 7,829 7,029 11,019 9,699 11,799 10,569 10,069 10,569

Stock to Use % 34.1 26.9 54.8 36.9 46.2 34.3 33.3 35.2

Change from Sept. 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14

Ending Stocks 200 325 375 325 625 1,125 1,925 1,175

Production 700 700 700 700 800 1500 2000 0

1000 480 lb. Bales 1000 Hectares

India Cotton PS&D, November 2013

India Cotton PS&D, September 2013

November 2013

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg Year Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Australia

3000-30000 2009/10

4000-10030 2010/11

400000040 2011/12

9000-50040 2012/13

900000090 2013/14

Bangladesh

1000000100000 2013/14

Brazil

2000000020000 2012/13

20000020002002000 2013/14

Bulgaria

200002000 2012/13

200000020 2013/14

Burkina

-4000000-4000 2012/13

10000-5000-400 2013/14

Chad

-5000-300-3500 2012/13

0000-200-15-50 2013/14

China

-50000000-50000 2013/14

Egypt

-50-1500-150-70-270000 2012/13

-25-1500-150-100-2250-500 2013/14

France

-200020000 2012/13

-2000000-20 2013/14

Germany

-100010000 2009/10

-2000100-10 2010/11

-2000000-20 2011/12

3000050-20 2012/13

300000030 2013/14

November 2013

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Greece

00001000100015 2013/14

India

20050050000070000 2006/07

3255755750007002000 2007/08

3756506500007003250 2008/09

3257507500007003750 2009/10

6255005000008003250 2010/11

1,1251,0001,0000001,5006250 2011/12

1,9251,0001,0000100-1002,0001,125200 2012/13

1,17575075000001,925-300 2013/14

Italy

-400040000 2012/13

-4000000-40 2013/14

Kazakhstan

-15000-250-400-6 2013/14

Mauritius

200002000 2012/13

200000020 2013/14

Paraguay

1000-10000 2010/11

2000-10010 2011/12

-1300000-152-15 2012/13

-44000-140-45-13-30 2013/14

Peru

19000019000 2012/13

19000000190 2013/14

Singapore

-10000100000 2012/13

-10000000-100 2013/14

Spain

-100010000 2011/12

-1000000-10 2012/13

4000-200-15-10 2013/14

Taiwan

November 2013

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)


Harvested

Beginning

Stocks


Cons.

Ending

Stocks

16000016000 2012/13

16000000160 2013/14

United States

10010661000020600 2013/14

Uzbekistan

00000000-15 2013/14

Vietnam

015001500150000 2013/14

Zambia

-30000-250-550-60 2012/13

-55000-750-100-30-110 2013/14

World

World

20050050000070000 2006/07

3255755750007002000 2007/08

3756506500007003250 2008/09

3277507500-207003750 2009/10

6285005000-108003270 2010/11

1,1281,0001,0000001,5006280 2011/12

2,0218501,000-150-14-3262,0551,128125 2012/13

985856756100-425-2092,021-446 2013/14

November 2013

Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Sep

2013/14

Nov

2013/14

Production none

6,967 China 6,641 7,403 7,620 7,185 7,076

5,334 India 5,922 6,314 6,205 6,314 6,314

2,654 United States 3,942 3,391 3,770 2,808 2,853

2,012 Pakistan 1,881 2,308 2,025 2,112 2,112

1,187 Brazil 1,960 1,894 1,306 1,568 1,611

386 Australia 914 1,196 1,002 980 980

849 Uzbekistan 893 914 980 925 925

3,006 Other 3,350 4,152 3,892 3,674 3,649

22,395 Total 25,503 27,573 26,800 25,566 25,521

USE Dom. Consumption none

10,886 China 10,015 8,274 7,838 7,838 7,838

4,300 India 4,474 4,300 4,899 5,008 5,008

2,264 Pakistan 2,155 2,177 2,395 2,547 2,547

1,285 Turkey 1,219 1,219 1,306 1,350 1,350

958 Brazil 936 871 893 914 914

849 Bangladesh 806 718 784 827 827

773 United States 849 718 762 762 784

4,563 Other 4,413 4,180 4,447 4,600 4,600

25,878 Total 24,868 22,458 23,324 23,847 23,869

Imports none

2,374 China 2,608 5,341 4,426 2,395 2,395

957 Turkey 729 519 827 893 893

849 Bangladesh 806 697 784 784 806

544 Indonesia 523 501 566 588 588

343 Pakistan 314 196 479 588 588

369 Vietnam 342 354 528 555 588

393 Thailand 381 275 329 348 348

2,149 Other 2,105 1,919 2,099 2,324 2,275

7,978 Total 7,808 9,801 10,038 8,475 8,480

Exports none

2,621 United States 3,130 2,550 2,836 2,264 2,264

1,426 India 1,089 2,412 1,676 1,524 1,524

460 Australia 544 1,010 1,344 914 914

827 Uzbekistan 577 544 697 653 653

433 Brazil 435 1,043 938 566 610

169 Burkina 147 142 250 256 245

191 Greece 163 218 261 207 229

1,627 Other 1,651 2,103 2,171 2,097 2,042

7,754 Total 7,736 10,023 10,174 8,482 8,481

Ending Stocks none

3,102 China 2,309 6,767 10,965 12,696 12,587

2,112 India 2,569 2,301 2,192 2,045 2,301

948 Brazil 1,721 1,740 1,263 1,356 1,399

662 Pakistan 549 617 623 683 683

642 United States 566 729 849 631 653

164 Australia 563 779 465 558 560

349 Turkey 287 270 310 302 302

2,265 Other 2,361 2,667 2,506 2,354 2,354

10,243 Total 10,925 15,871 19,173 20,625 20,839

November 2013

Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Sep

2013/14

Nov

2013/14

Production none

1,775 Australia 4,200 5,495 4,600 4,500 4,500

5,450 Brazil 9,000 8,700 6,000 7,200 7,400

32,000 China 30,500 34,000 35,000 33,000 32,500

24,500 India 27,200 29,000 28,500 29,000 29,000

9,240 Pakistan 8,640 10,600 9,300 9,700 9,700

12,188 United States 18,104 15,573 17,315 12,899 13,105

3,900 Uzbekistan 4,100 4,200 4,500 4,250 4,250

13,805 Other 15,387 19,071 17,875 16,875 16,760

102,858 Total 117,131 126,639 123,090 117,424 117,215

USE Dom. Consumption none

3,900 Bangladesh 3,700 3,300 3,600 3,800 3,800

4,400 Brazil 4,300 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,200

50,000 China 46,000 38,000 36,000 36,000 36,000

19,750 India 20,550 19,750 22,500 23,000 23,000

2,450 Indonesia 2,350 2,250 2,550 2,650 2,650

1,900 Mexico 1,700 1,700 1,800 1,900 1,900

10,400 Pakistan 9,900 10,000 11,000 11,700 11,700

5,900 Turkey 5,600 5,600 6,000 6,200 6,200

3,550 United States 3,900 3,300 3,500 3,500 3,600

1,600 Vietnam 1,625 1,650 2,300 2,500 2,650

15,006 Other 14,593 13,598 13,773 14,079 13,929

118,856 Total 114,218 103,148 107,123 109,529 109,629

Imports none

3,900 Bangladesh 3,700 3,200 3,600 3,600 3,700

10,903 China 11,979 24,533 20,327 11,000 11,000

480 India 450 600 1,200 1,500 1,500

2,500 Indonesia 2,400 2,300 2,600 2,700 2,700

1,010 Korea, South 1,038 1,170 1,314 1,300 1,300

1,393 Mexico 1,196 1,000 950 1,200 1,200

1,574 Pakistan 1,443 900 2,200 2,700 2,700

1,806 Thailand 1,752 1,263 1,511 1,600 1,600

4,394 Turkey 3,350 2,382 3,800 4,100 4,100

1,695 Vietnam 1,569 1,625 2,425 2,550 2,700

6,989 Other 6,984 6,044 6,175 6,675 6,450

36,644 Total 35,861 45,017 46,102 38,925 38,950

Exports none

2,112 Australia 2,500 4,640 6,174 4,200 4,200

1,990 Brazil 2,000 4,792 4,307 2,600 2,800

775 Burkina 675 650 1,150 1,175 1,125

875 Greece 750 1,000 1,200 950 1,050

6,550 India 5,000 11,080 7,700 7,000 7,000

43 Malaysia 80 1,023 725 825 825

440 Mali 450 625 875 925 925

1,200 Turkmenistan 1,100 750 1,075 950 950

12,037 United States 14,376 11,714 13,026 10,400 10,400

3,800 Uzbekistan 2,650 2,500 3,200 3,000 3,000

5,791 Other 5,952 7,261 7,297 6,933 6,679

35,613 Total 35,533 46,035 46,729 38,958 38,954

Ending Stocks none

752 Australia 2,587 3,577 2,138 2,564 2,573

4,353 Brazil 7,906 7,993 5,801 6,226 6,426

14,246 China 10,603 31,081 50,361 58,311 57,811

9,699 India 11,799 10,569 10,069 9,394 10,569

3,042 Pakistan 2,520 2,835 2,860 3,135 3,135

1,605 Turkey 1,319 1,241 1,423 1,388 1,388

2,947 United States 2,600 3,350 3,900 2,900 3,000

10,402 Other 10,842 12,248 11,509 10,810 10,811

47,046 Total 50,176 72,894 88,061 94,728 95,713

November 2013

Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Nov 2011/12 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2011/12

Prel.

2012/13 Sep Sep

Prel.

2012/13 Nov

Prel.

2012/13 Sep Nov Percent

2013/14 Proj.2013/14 Proj. 2013/14 Proj.

2011/12

35.72World -4.77-5.88-0.18-0.21117.2234.33 33.58 33.14 772 781 761 770 126.64 123.09 117.42

3.83United States -24.31-4.211.600.2113.113.79 3.15 3.15 886 994 892 906 15.57 17.32 12.90

31.89Total Foreign -1.57-1.67-0.40-0.42104.1130.54 30.43 29.99 758 754 748 756 111.07 105.78 104.53

none

Western Hemisphere

1.40 Brazil 23.331.402.780.207.400.90 1.10 1.10 1,353 1,452 1,425 1,465 8.70 6.00 7.20

0.19 Mexico -27.52-0.300.000.000.790.16 0.12 0.12 1,338 1,512 1,458 1,458 1.18 1.09 0.79

0.53 Argentina 18.420.140.000.000.900.35 0.40 0.40 411 473 490 490 1.00 0.76 0.90

0.08 Paraguay -26.67-0.02-45.00-0.050.060.05 0.06 0.03 340 363 363 399 0.13 0.08 0.10

0.05 Peru 16.670.030.000.000.180.04 0.04 0.04 862 859 866 866 0.19 0.15 0.18

0.04 Colombia -3.97-0.010.000.000.150.04 0.04 0.04 807 747 789 789 0.16 0.15 0.15

Africa

0.40 Burkina -4.26-0.050.000.001.130.58 0.58 0.58 441 441 426 426 0.80 1.18 1.13

0.48 Mali 7.950.070.000.000.950.52 0.55 0.55 393 366 376 376 0.86 0.88 0.95

0.28 Cote d'Ivoire -6.47-0.050.000.000.650.38 0.40 0.40 385 404 354 354 0.50 0.70 0.65

0.18 Cameroon -7.61-0.040.000.000.430.21 0.21 0.21 404 477 441 441 0.33 0.46 0.43

0.20 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.550.25 0.27 0.27 381 479 444 444 0.35 0.55 0.55

0.20 Chad 15.630.03-7.50-0.020.190.20 0.20 0.20 165 174 218 201 0.15 0.16 0.20

0.10 Togo 0.000.000.000.000.200.13 0.13 0.13 367 348 348 348 0.16 0.20 0.20

0.03 Senegal -3.230.000.000.000.060.04 0.03 0.03 371 386 408 408 0.05 0.06 0.06

0.22 Egypt -8.16-0.040.000.000.450.14 0.13 0.13 737 746 754 754 0.75 0.49 0.45

0.47 Zimbabwe 14.290.050.000.000.400.28 0.30 0.30 278 277 290 290 0.60 0.35 0.40

0.33 Nigeria -7.69-0.030.000.000.300.30 0.29 0.29 218 236 225 225 0.33 0.33 0.30

Asia Oceania

5.50 China -7.14-2.50-1.52-0.5032.505.30 5.10 5.10 1,346 1,438 1,409 1,387 34.00 35.00 33.00

12.20 India 1.750.500.000.0029.0012.00 12.00 11.70 518 517 526 540 29.00 28.50 29.00

3.00 Pakistan 4.300.400.000.009.703.00 3.00 3.00 769 675 704 704 10.60 9.30 9.70

0.16 Kazakhstan -10.84-0.05-9.76-0.040.370.15 0.14 0.14 590 611 620 584 0.44 0.42 0.41

0.20 Tajikistan 0.000.000.000.000.550.20 0.20 0.20 619 599 599 599 0.58 0.55 0.55

0.58 Turkmenistan -6.25-0.100.000.001.500.60 0.58 0.58 530 581 568 568 1.40 1.60 1.50

1.31 Uzbekistan -5.56-0.250.000.004.251.32 1.30 1.29 698 745 712 720 4.20 4.50 4.25

0.49 Turkey -13.46-0.350.000.002.250.41 0.33 0.33 1,529 1,381 1,484 1,484 3.44 2.60 2.25

0.60 Australia -2.17-0.100.000.004.500.43 0.47 0.47 1,994 2,351 2,107 2,107 5.50 4.60 4.50

0.15 Syria -17.24-0.130.000.000.600.13 0.10 0.10 1,306 1,263 1,306 1,306 0.90 0.73 0.60

0.30 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.270.30 0.30 0.30 196 196 196 196 0.27 0.27 0.27

Europe

0.29 Greece -1.23-0.029.090.101.200.29 0.24 0.25 1,016 928 1,019 1,045 1.33 1.22 1.10

1.96Others -9.12-0.27-4.14-0.122.661.88 1.84 1.73 356 340 328 335 3.20 2.93 2.78

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductionCountry

0 15070988550 Afghanistan 13

0 001211 Albania 1

25 00253100 Algeria 6

3 3051052 Angola 2

35 20007501,634900400 Argentina 684

1 001200 Armenia 1

0 4,200-175406,6384,500465 Australia 2,573

25 30233100 Austria 5

0 20060996523 Azerbaijan 19

30 00303700 Bahrain 7

3,700 0103,8004,73612045 Bangladesh 926

60 00607000 Belarus 10

60 250356900 Belgium-Luxembour 9

0 550010693550270 Benin 133

4 201837145 Bolivia 17

75 2,800-1504,20013,2767,4001,100 Brazil 6,426

20 502536102 Bulgaria 6

0 1,125041,4321,125575 Burkina 303

0 650200326270300 Burma 61

5 005700 Cambodia 2

0 375040530425210 Cameroon 115

5 005600 Canada 1

0 3005563536 Central African Republic 21

0 160015223185200 Chad 48

10 00101300 Chile 3

11,000 50036,00093,86132,5005,100 China 57,811

160 2530038814540 Colombia 81

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

1 002311 Costa Rica 1

0 650050913650400 Cote d'Ivoire 213

1 001200 Croatia 1

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

25 00253000 Czech Republic 5

1 001200 Denmark 1

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/14 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

50 00607293 Ecuador 12

400 25010550989450130 Egypt 179

130 0013018311 El Salvador 53

0 000000 Estonia 0

0 75090214170120 Ethiopia 49

80 100709300 France 13

220 30019025800 Germany 38

0 15015362816 Ghana 6

10 1,050501001,5761,200250 Greece 376

110 0011513732 Guatemala 22

0 1800211814 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

1 005742 Honduras 2

300 225010039500 Hong Kong 70

6 105800 Hungary 2

1,500 7,000023,00040,56929,00011,700 India 10,569

2,700 5502,6503,234309 Indonesia 529

300 200550730275100 Iran 160

60 00901303020 Iraq 40

2 002200 Ireland 0

2 500467506 Israel 13

250 20023027700 Italy 27

310 0031536400 Japan 49

10 3252575603370138 Kazakhstan 178

10 0040472835 Kenya 7

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

1,300 1001,2751,58200 Korea, South 297

0 900101239027 Kyrgyzstan 23

1 001100 Latvia 0

3 003400 Lebanon 1

0 000000 Lithuania 0

20 00202300 Macedonia 3

0 10050716030 Madagascar 11

0 15005236160140 Malawi 81

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


1,025 82501501,09600 Malaysia 121

0 9250251,232950550 Mali 282

100 0010012600 Mauritius 26

1,200 150251,9002,690790118 Mexico 615

10 00101400 Moldova 4

155 0015518811 Morocco 33

0 130010205125135 Mozambique 65

20 10202500 Netherlands 4

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 5041399 Niger 4

50 650300464300290 Nigeria 99

2,700 4002511,70015,2609,7003,000 Pakistan 3,135

0 000000 Panama 0

5 66020885530 Paraguay 2

250 5046068717544 Peru 222

40 00405421 Philippines 14

13 00131600 Poland 3

140 2014017900 Portugal 37

5 005700 Romania 2

350 0035042300 Russia 73

0 40020776032 Senegal 17

4 004500 Serbia and Montenegro 1

60 60006500 Singapore 5

0 000000 Slovakia 0

5 005600 Slovenia 1

3 001011712 Somalia 1

74 32087162307 South Africa 43

15 23002030723565 Spain 57

11 10152155 Sri Lanka 5

0 95081537540 Sudan 50

0 000000 Sweden 0

17 10172100 Switzerland 3

0 1250500794600100 Syria 169

1,025 001,0001,25900 Taiwan 259

0 550035756550200 Tajikistan 171

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 2750150775350400 Tanzania 350

1,600 5251,5501,87021 Thailand 290

0 175015247200125 Togo 57

90 10090113102 Tunisia 13

4,100 18506,2007,7732,250330 Turkey 1,388

0 95007252,2741,500575 Turkmenistan 599

0 10002019511080 Uganda 75

19 00192300 Ukraine 4

2 200300 United Kingdom 1

10 10,400153,60017,01513,1053,149 United States 3,000

3 003400 Uruguay 1

0 3,00001,5005,5984,2501,285 Uzbekistan 1,098

15 001001218515 Venezuela 21

2,700 002,6503,2072110 Vietnam 557

0 1032393419 Yemen 6

0 150070350175170 Zambia 130

0 3501520602400300 Zimbabwe 217

World

38,950 38,954-70109,629244,226117,21533,136 World 95,713

November 2013

(1000 MT)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/2014

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 3015211911 Afghanistan 3

0 000000 Albania 0

5 005700 Algeria 1

1 101210 Angola 0

8 44016335619687 Argentina 149

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 914-3891,445980101 Australia 560

5 105700 Austria 1

0 401322145 Azerbaijan 4

7 007800 Bahrain 2

806 028271,0312610 Bangladesh 202

13 00131500 Belarus 2


0 1200215112059 Benin 29

1 004831 Bolivia 4

16 610-339142,8911,611239 Brazil 1,399

4 105820 Bulgaria 1

0 24501312245125 Burkina 66

0 14044715965 Burma 13

1 001200 Cambodia 0

0 82091159346 Cameroon 25

1 001100 Canada 0


0 3503494044 Chad 10

2 002300 Chile 1

2,395 1107,83820,4367,0761,110 China 12,587

35 016584329 Colombia 18



0 14201119914287 Cote d'Ivoire 46

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003311 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0

November 2013

(1000 MT)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2013/2014 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply



11 00131621 Ecuador 3

87 5421202159828 Egypt 39

28 00284000 El Salvador 12

0 000000 Estonia 0

0 16020473726 Ethiopia 11

17 20152000 France 3

48 70415600 Germany 8

0 303863 Ghana 1

2 229112234326154 Greece 82

24 00253010 Guatemala 5

0 400543 Guinea 1

1 002212 Haiti 0

0 001210 Honduras 0

65 490228600 Hong Kong 15

1 001200 Hungary 0

327 1,52405,0088,8336,3142,547 India 2,301

588 11157770472 Indonesia 115

65 401201596022 Iran 35

13 00202874 Iraq 9

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 110115111 Israel 3

54 40506000 Italy 6

67 00697900 Japan 11

2 715161318130 Kazakhstan 39

2 0091068 Kenya 2

21 003345124 Korea, North 12

283 2027834400 Korea, South 65

0 200227206 Kyrgyzstan 5

0 000000 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0


4 004500 Macedonia 1

0 201115137 Madagascar 2

0 3301513530 Malawi 18

November 2013

(1000 MT)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


223 18003323900 Malaysia 26

0 20105268207120 Mali 61

22 00222700 Mauritius 6

261 33541458617226 Mexico 134

2 002300 Moldova 1

34 00344100 Morocco 7

0 2802452729 Mozambique 14



0 101322 Niger 1

11 140651016563 Nigeria 22

588 8752,5473,3232,112653 Pakistan 683

0 000000 Panama 0

1 140419127 Paraguay 0

54 101001503810 Peru 48


3 003300 Poland 1

30 00303900 Portugal 8

1 001200 Romania 0

76 00769200 Russia 16

0 90417137 Senegal 4


13 13001400 Singapore 1

0 000000 Slovakia 0

1 001100 Slovenia 0

1 002223 Somalia 0

16 70193572 South Africa 9

3 5004675114 Spain 12

2 003511 Sri Lanka 1

0 210233169 Sudan 11

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 27010917313122 Syria 37

223 0021827400 Taiwan 56

0 1200816512044 Tajikistan 37

November 2013

(1000 MT)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 600331697687 Tanzania 76

348 1533740700 Thailand 63

0 3803544427 Togo 12

20 20202520 Tunisia 3

893 4001,3501,69249072 Turkey 302

0 2070158495327125 Turkmenistan 130

0 2204422417 Uganda 16

4 004500 Ukraine 1


2 2,26437843,7052,853686 United States 653

1 001100 Uruguay 0

0 65303271,219925280 Uzbekistan 239

3 002226193 Venezuela 5

588 0057769852 Vietnam 121

0 007874 Yemen 1

0 33015763837 Zambia 28

0 76341318765 Zimbabwe 47

World

8,480 8,481-1523,86953,17425,5217,215 World 20,839

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2012/2013

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 15070988550 Afghanistan 13

0 002311 Albania 1

28 00263200 Algeria 6

3 3051052 Angola 2

28 25197501,709760350 Argentina 699

1 001200 Armenia 1

0 6,174-175408,1774,600426 Australia 2,138

28 40233300 Austria 6

0 3505512410029 Azerbaijan 34

30 00303700 Bahrain 7

3,600 0103,6004,52610840 Bangladesh 916

60 00607000 Belarus 10


0 525010678550250 Benin 143

4 201839145 Bolivia 19

65 4,307-1504,10014,0586,000900 Brazil 5,801

22 502536102 Bulgaria 6

0 1,150041,4611,175580 Burkina 307

0 650200321270300 Burma 56

5 005700 Cambodia 2

0 400040545460210 Cameroon 105

5 006700 Canada 1


0 150015203160200 Chad 38

10 00101300 Chile 3

20,327 47036,00086,40835,0005,300 China 50,361

150 1529037915144 Colombia 83



0 600050913695375 Cote d'Ivoire 263

1 001200 Croatia 1

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0


1 001200 Denmark 1

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2012/2013 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply



50 00607393 Ecuador 13

230 28010550979490143 Egypt 139

130 0013018211 El Salvador 52

0 000000 Estonia 0

0 5007516913898 Ethiopia 44

80 120709500 France 13

225 30019025800 Germany 38

0 15015383218 Ghana 8

20 1,200501101,7261,215285 Greece 366

110 0011013432 Guatemala 24

0 1800211814 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

1 005742 Honduras 2

396 250010044500 Hong Kong 95

6 105800 Hungary 2

1,200 7,700022,50040,26928,50012,000 India 10,069

2,600 5502,5503,1093010 Indonesia 504

300 200575750285105 Iran 155

70 00901303020 Iraq 40

2 002200 Ireland 0

2 600479577 Israel 15

250 24023028100 Italy 27

323 0031536900 Japan 54

5 3502575673415148 Kazakhstan 223

15 0040493040 Kenya 9

100 001502055519 Korea, North 55

1,314 401,2751,56100 Korea, South 282

0 10001014310030 Kyrgyzstan 33

1 001100 Latvia 0

3 003400 Lebanon 1


20 00202300 Macedonia 3

0 10050716030 Madagascar 11

0 12505206125140 Malawi 76

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


850 725012592100 Malaysia 71

0 8750251,182880523 Mali 282

102 1010012700 Mauritius 26

950 225251,8002,7501,090157 Mexico 700

10 00101400 Moldova 4

150 0015018211 Morocco 32

0 150010240160160 Mozambique 80



0 4041299 Niger 4

50 750300489325300 Nigeria 114

2,200 4502511,00014,3359,3003,000 Pakistan 2,860

0 000000 Panama 0

4 860201347545 Paraguay 28

269 5045071715038 Peru 262


13 00131600 Poland 3

150 3014018200 Portugal 39

5 005700 Romania 2

350 0037544800 Russia 73

0 40020776235 Senegal 17


60 60006500 Singapore 5

0 000000 Slovakia 0

5 005600 Slovenia 1

3 001011712 Somalia 1

73 560882023111 South Africa 58

15 27002034728270 Spain 57

12 10152155 Sri Lanka 5

0 1350822112560 Sudan 78

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 1500575919725125 Syria 194

941 009251,15900 Taiwan 234

0 650035891550200 Tajikistan 206

November 2013

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply


0 2750150850500500 Tanzania 425

1,511 6251,4751,77421 Thailand 268

0 190015252200125 Togo 47

90 10090113102 Tunisia 13

3,800 21806,0007,6412,600410 Turkey 1,423

0 1,07507002,5491,600600 Turkmenistan 774

0 11002021510075 Uganda 85

19 00192300 Ukraine 4


10 13,0262493,50020,67517,3153,793 United States 3,900

3 003400 Uruguay 1

0 3,20001,4505,9984,5001,315 Uzbekistan 1,348

15 001001218515 Venezuela 21

2,425 002,3002,7862110 Vietnam 486

0 1035413419 Yemen 5

0 200070445175170 Zambia 175

0 3981522637350275 Zimbabwe 202

World

46,102 46,729173107,123242,086123,09034,329 World 88,061

November 2013

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2012/2013

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductionBeginning

Stocks

Country

19 30150311 Afghanistan 3

0 000000 Albania 0

0 006610 Algeria 1

1 101100 Angola 0

165 552163620176 Argentina 152

0 000000 Armenia 0

1,002 1,344-389077993 Australia 465

0 105610 Austria 1

22 8012056 Azerbaijan 7

0 007720 Bahrain 2

24 027847841789 Bangladesh 199

0 00131320 Belarus 2


120 1140202854 Benin 31

3 004151 Bolivia 4

1,306 938-33893141,740196 Brazil 1,263

2 105510 Bulgaria 1

256 25001062126 Burkina 67

59 1404401165 Burma 12

0 001100 Cambodia 0

100 870901946 Cameroon 23

0 001100 Canada 0


35 33030944 Chad 8

0 002210 Chile 1

7,620 1007,8384,4266,7671,154 China 10,965

33 0163331710 Colombia 18



151 13101104782 Cote d'Ivoire 57

0 000000 Croatia 0

1 003201 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0

November 2013

(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2012/2013 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


Stocks

Country


2 00131131 Ecuador 3

107 612120505631 Egypt 30

0 002828110 El Salvador 11

0 000000 Estonia 0

30 110160721 Ethiopia 10

0 30151730 France 3

0 70414970 Germany 8

7 303014 Ghana 2

265 2611124410762 Greece 80

1 00242450 Guatemala 5

4 400013 Guinea 1

1 002102 Haiti 0

1 001000 Honduras 0

0 5402286110 Hong Kong 21

0 001100 Hungary 0

6,205 1,67604,8992612,3012,613 India 2,192

7 1115555661042 Indonesia 110

62 40125653623 Iran 34

7 00201574 Iraq 9

0 000000 Ireland 0

12 1301042 Israel 3

0 50505470 Italy 6

0 006970100 Japan 12

90 7651615532 Kazakhstan 49

7 009319 Kenya 2

12 003322114 Korea, North 12

0 10278286540 Korea, South 61

22 2202097 Kyrgyzstan 7

0 000000 Latvia 0

0 001100 Lebanon 0


0 004410 Macedonia 1

13 2011027 Madagascar 2

27 270101830 Malawi 17

November 2013

(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


Stocks

Country

0 158027185150 Malaysia 15

192 19105066114 Mali 61

0 00222250 Mauritius 6

237 49539220715534 Mexico 152

0 002210 Moldova 1

0 00333370 Morocco 7

35 330201735 Mozambique 17



2 101012 Niger 1

71 16065112565 Nigeria 25

2,025 9852,395479617653 Pakistan 623

0 000000 Panama 0

16 190411210 Paraguay 6

33 109859658 Peru 57


0 003310 Poland 1

0 10303370 Portugal 8

0 001100 Romania 0

0 008276210 Russia 16

13 904038 Senegal 4


0 13001310 Singapore 1

0 000000 Slovakia 0

0 001100 Slovenia 0

2 002103 Somalia 0

7 1201916212 South Africa 13

61 590431115 Spain 12

1 003311 Sri Lanka 1

27 290202113 Sudan 17

0 000000 Sweden 0


158 33012504227 Syria 42

0 00201205470 Taiwan 51

120 1420807444 Tajikistan 45

November 2013

(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


Stocks

Country

109 60033076109 Tanzania 93

0 15321329570 Thailand 58

44 410301127 Togo 10

2 20202030 Tunisia 3

566 4701,30682727089 Turkey 310

348 23401520207131 Turkmenistan 169

22 240402516 Uganda 19

0 004410 Ukraine 1


3,770 2,836547622729826 United States 849

0 001100 Uruguay 0

980 69703160326286 Uzbekistan 293

19 0022353 Venezuela 5

5 00501528742 Vietnam 106

7 008024 Yemen 1

38 4401505937 Zambia 38

76 873506260 Zimbabwe 44

World

26,800 10,1743823,32410,03815,8717,474 World 19,173

November 2013

Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg Year Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

World

3825,45467,26830266,96625,515118,23726,07166,33231,39425,834 1982/83

3524,28169,17649668,68025,333118,79027,05966,27730,92025,454 1983/84

5942,12671,29047470,81627,200140,61627,62988,70633,74124,281 1984/85

6347,58975,58225275,33028,078151,24928,98180,14231,58142,126 1985/86

4335,41782,27417982,09533,350151,04133,09370,35929,34747,589 1986/87

3932,60984,68053484,14630,103147,39230,52981,44630,87135,417 1987/88

3631,05085,88064285,23833,481150,41133,58284,22033,83132,609 1988/89

2924,97887,13923486,90531,357143,47432,70379,72131,69631,050 1989/90

3227,46785,69417085,52429,560142,72130,57887,16533,15324,978 1990/91

4336,96586,55636886,18828,204151,72529,02495,23434,75827,467 1991/92

4034,50486,4006386,33725,435146,33927,06782,30732,64336,965 1992/93

3327,82785,70314385,56026,620140,15027,96777,67930,71834,504 1993/94

3832,01484,292-33084,62228,118144,42430,30086,29732,25027,827 1994/95

4740,12985,396-54485,94027,396152,92127,00493,90335,92032,014 1995/96

5144,63387,351-58587,93626,777158,76128,57990,05333,74040,129 1996/97

5749,46786,686-58187,26726,777162,93025,92992,36833,79744,633 1997/98

6252,85283,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02024,48086,07332,88549,467 1998/99

5651,14090,485-60291,08727,126168,75127,97687,92332,35052,852 1999/00

5449,44390,829-1,33992,16826,197166,46926,22889,10132,00551,140 2000/01

5854,56293,751-70694,45729,105177,41829,30598,67033,71749,443 2001/02

4847,65897,633-77998,41230,424175,71530,18790,96630,73754,562 2002/03

4948,22697,144-88498,02833,177178,54734,11296,77732,32247,658 2003/04

5660,677107,855-1,170109,02535,007203,53933,877121,43635,68948,226 2004/05

5361,733115,129-1,743116,87244,841221,70344,676116,35034,72460,677 2005/06

5163,057122,254-1,715123,96937,539222,85038,256122,86134,53161,733 2006/07

5062,222121,531-2,044123,57539,019222,77239,435120,28032,82763,057 2007/08

5661,956108,566-1,521110,08730,241200,76330,597107,94430,56862,222 2008/09

4047,046118,799-57118,85635,613201,45836,644102,85830,13361,956 2009/10

4450,176114,329111114,21835,533200,03835,861117,13133,46347,046 2010/11

7172,894102,903-245103,14846,035221,83245,017126,63935,71750,176 2011/12

8288,061107,296173107,12346,729242,08646,102123,09034,32972,894 2012/13

8795,713109,559-70109,62938,954244,22638,950117,21533,13688,061 2013/14

November 2013

Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

455,34786,4835,48417,322514,3892,9285835,372 1977/78

323,958-2836,3526,18016,207410,8565,3474715,018 1978/79

193,000-1436,5069,22918,592514,6293,9586135,193 1979/80

232,668-3355,8915,92614,1502811,1223,0004535,348 1980/81

566,632-1235,2646,56718,3402615,6462,6686085,601 1981/82

747,937-425,5135,20718,6152011,9636,6326613,939 1982/83

222,7752385,9216,78615,720127,7717,9375692,973 1983/84

354,102-745,5386,21515,7812412,9822,7756734,200 1984/85

1129,348-1546,4131,96017,5673313,4324,1027064,140 1985/86

365,026-807,4526,68419,08239,7319,3486183,427 1986/87

415,771-1827,6176,58219,788214,7605,0267924,059 1987/88

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2733,54113,26122,866012,81510,0519113,063 2008/09

192,947-93,55012,03718,525012,1886,3378713,047 2009/10

142,6001843,90014,37621,060918,1042,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

243,9002493,50013,02620,6751017,3153,3509943,793 2012/13

213,000153,60010,40017,0151013,1053,9009063,149 2013/14

November 2013

Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

20,29030054,53920,95796,08627,11549,51919,45238228,204 1977/78

17,89820756,87721,07396,05527,12548,64020,29038127,796 1978/79

18,23215359,39821,43399,21630,50150,81717,89840927,026 1979/80

17,94130259,13020,33997,71227,22552,25518,23242127,021 1980/81

19,20236258,04519,19796,80625,67253,19317,94142427,337 1981/82

17,51734461,45320,30899,62226,05154,36919,20243127,455 1982/83

21,50625862,75918,547103,07027,04758,50617,51745627,947 1983/84

38,02454865,27820,985124,83527,60575,72421,50655829,541 1984/85

38,24140668,91726,118133,68228,94866,71038,02452927,441 1985/86

30,39125974,64326,666131,95933,09060,62838,24150925,920 1986/87

26,83871676,52923,521127,60430,52766,68630,39154226,812 1987/88

23,95847777,45627,333129,22433,57768,80926,83851728,996 1988/89

21,97839778,14623,663124,18432,70167,52523,95852827,836 1989/90

25,12345576,86721,767124,21230,57471,66021,97854928,405 1990/91

33,26136076,57521,558131,75429,01177,62025,12357329,513 1991/92

29,84225376,08720,234126,41627,06666,08933,26151128,142 1992/93

24,29715175,14219,758119,34827,96161,54529,84252525,545 1993/94

29,364-29273,42418,716121,21230,28066,63524,29754026,859 1994/95

37,520-57175,29319,721131,96326,59676,00329,36456229,442 1995/96

40,662-57776,81019,912136,80728,17671,11137,52054328,524 1996/97

45,580-62275,91819,277140,15325,91673,57540,66256528,372 1997/98

48,913-72074,36419,219141,77624,04172,15545,58055028,561 1998/99

47,225-74780,89320,376147,74727,87970,95548,91357426,917 1999/00

43,443-85683,30619,457145,35026,21271,91347,22558626,723 2000/01

47,114-88686,76118,105151,09429,28478,36743,44360728,121 2001/02

42,273-94591,13918,524150,99130,12073,75747,11462525,712 2002/03

44,776-1,09591,76219,419154,86234,06778,52242,27362227,464 2003/04

55,182-1,278102,33420,571176,80933,84898,18544,77670330,405 2004/05

55,664-1,543111,00127,168192,29044,64892,46055,18269129,138 2005/06

53,578-2,018119,03424,580195,17438,237101,27355,66475129,379 2006/07

52,171-2,473118,99125,385194,07439,423101,07353,57877028,582 2007/08

55,619-1,248106,54616,980177,89730,59795,12952,17175327,505 2008/09

44,099-48115,30623,576182,93336,64490,67055,61972927,086 2009/10

47,576-73110,31821,157178,97835,85299,02744,09974029,133 2010/11

69,544-7399,84834,321203,64044,998111,06647,57675831,888 2011/12

84,161-76103,62333,703221,41146,092105,77569,54475430,536 2012/13

92,713-85106,02928,554227,21138,940104,11084,16175629,987 2013/14

November 2013

Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University · initial estimate reported on November 1,...

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