COST & RETURN UPDATES FOR 2016 · 2016 PRICE FORECASTS Jan. 2016 Crop Unit Price Soft White Wheat,...
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COST & RETURN UPDATES FOR 2016 2016 Cereal Schools: Greencreek, Lewiston, Bonners Ferry Kate Painter, UI Extension, Boundary County
Transcript of COST & RETURN UPDATES FOR 2016 · 2016 PRICE FORECASTS Jan. 2016 Crop Unit Price Soft White Wheat,...
COST & RETURN UPDATES FOR 2016
2016 Cereal Schools:
Greencreek, Lewiston, Bonners Ferry
Kate Painter, UI Extension, Boundary County
WHEAT PRICE OUTLOOK• Record world-wide wheat production in both 2014
and 2015 have led to record high wheat stocks
• Strong dollar has hampered our ability to export
• The dollar has not been this strong relative to other currencies since 2003
• This makes our products more expensive for other countries
• 2015-16 exports are only 800 million bushels, which is the smallest export total in over 40 years
FALLING WHEAT PRICES IN 2015
12-month average:$178/ton Alfalfa$128/ton Other Hay
RESOURCES FOR MARKETING
• USDA Ag Marketing Service database
query:
• http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-
news/custom-reports
DNS 14% PROTEIN, #1, PORTLAND, $/BU,
JAN 2014 - DEC 2015
$6.23
SOFT WHITE WHEAT, #1, PORTLAND, $/BU,
JAN 2014 - DEC 2015
$5.11
2015 CROP PRICE AND YIELD
ASSUMPTIONS FOR NORTH IDAHO
Yield 2015 Price
Crop Unit per acre per unit
Winter Wheat (WW) bu 80 $5.65
Soft White Spring Wheat (SWSW) bu 58 $5.65
Dark Northern Spring Wheat (DNSW) bu 58 $6.75
Spring Barley (SB) ton 1.5 $122.50
2015 CROP PRICE AND YIELD
ASSUMPTIONS FOR NORTH IDAHOYield 2015 Price
Crop Unit per acre per unit
Oats (O) ton 1.25 $161
Peas (P) lb 1700 $0.12
Austrian Winter Peas (AWP) lb 2000 $0.26
Lentils (L) lb 1100 $0.28
Garbanzos (G) lb 1200 $0.32
Spring Canola (SC) lb 1500 $0.16
Yellow Mustard (YM) lb 1100 $0.32
2015 COSTS AND RETURNS ANALYSIS
2016 FORECAST
• 16% lower grain prices
• Fuel prices about 2/3 of 2015
• Fertilizer prices SHOULD fall
• Lentil prices are strong
• Garbanzos, canola, peas are lower
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
2016 PRICE FORECASTS
Jan. 2016
Crop Unit Price
Soft White Wheat, Portland bu $5.36
Dark Northern Spring Wheat, Portland bu $6.12
Feed Barley ton $145.00
Peas lb $0.11
Lentils (L) lb $0.45
Garbanzos (G) lb $0.33
Spring Canola (SC) lb $0.15
2016 FORECAST
• Strong market for lentils
• Garbs also look good
• Wheat will be a break-even
crop at best for most producers
2016 CROP ENTERPRISE BUDGETS
2016 CROP ENTERPRISE BREAKEVENS
QUESTIONS?
Kate Painter, PhD
Boundary County Extension
Educator
(208) 267-3235
