Cost Model Discussions with ACT Subgroup - … Cost Model Features • Timeframe: 2016 and 2040 •...

Draft Cost Model Discussion with

ACT Cost Subgroup

Mobile Source Control Division Air Resources Board

August 23, 2016

1

Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

Agenda • Overview of ARB’s cost model: • Comparison to Steve’s model • Continued data needs • Cost assumptions • LA Metro’s presentation • August 29 workgroup meeting agenda

2


ARB Fleet Cost Model Overview • Cost items

– Capital cost: vehicle, fueling infrastructure, maintenance infrastructure

– O&M cost: vehicle maintenance, vehicle mid-life overhaul, vehicle fuel costs & LCFS credits, fueling infrastructure O& M

• Procurement schedule – Vehicle – Infrastructure

• Flexibility for different needs

3


ARB Fleet Cost Model Methodology

4

Old fleet by fuel type

ZEB phase-in schedule

New purchase of ZEBs and others

New purchase of fueling/charging

infrastructure

Bus lifespan

New fleet by fuel type

Cumulative (new + existing)

fueling/charging infrastructure

Capital cost

O&M cost


ARB Cost Model Features

• Timeframe: 2016 and 2040 • Constant dollars or nominal dollars (with

inflation) • Uses NTD data selection for specific agency or

user defined fleet • Bus replacements cycle capabilities

– Regular cycles and ZEB phase-in (% of purchase) or – Custom irregular cycle with user input

• Costs for capital, mid-life, and O&M – Buses and infrastructure

• LCFS credits can vary by year 5


Comparison to Steve’s Model

• Match inputs for capital and O&M costs • Same bus/charger purchase schedule (triennial) • Cash flow results essentially the same

– Difference occurs in years where Steve’s model does not retire ZEBs after end of useful life

• Questions about contract spare vehicles

6


Cost Inputs

• Bus prices • Maintenance and brake costs • Annual fuel costs

– Fuel consumption – Long term fuel price – LCFS credit value

• Infrastructure

7


Bus Price History from APTA

• 4.12% annual increase (nominal dollars)

8 * Bus costs converted to constant dollars by using the historical price growth rate of 4.12%

Bus Prices Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

Proterra Bus Price Projection

• Proterra (08/10/2016-08/19/2016, discussions with Alan Westenskow, Director of Business Development)

9

$490,000

$749,000

$623,896

$861,758

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

$900,000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Nom

inal

Dol

lars

CNG CNG (low NOx) Proterra Electric

Proterra: -3% for 2016 - 2022; 4.12% after 2022 to match CNG

CNG & Low NOx: 4.12% (APTA)

Proterra/Conventional Bus Cost Parity - 2022

$490,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

$850,000

$900,000

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

2022

20

23

2024

20

25

2026

20

27

2028

20

29

2030

*201

6 Co

nsta

nt D

olla

rs

CNG CNG (low NOx) Proterra Electric

* Bus costs converted to constant dollars by using the historical price growth rate of 4.12%

Bus Prices

480,000

770,000

675,000

1,295,110

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Nom

inal

Dol

lars

Diesel BYD BEB

BYD Bus Prices

• 08/22/2016, discussion with Vincent Wiraatmadja

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480,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$750,000

$800,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

* 20

16 C

onst

ant D

olla

rs

Diesel BYD BEB

Diesel: 4.12%

BYD: $770k in 2016; $675k in 2025; 4.12% after 2022 to

match diesel

* Bus costs converted to constant dollars by using the historical price growth rate of 4.12%


Battery Price Reduction (August Discussion Paper)

• Battery cost reduction literature review supports bus cost reduction estimates

11

725

405

218

2000

714

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

$/kW

h

Year

CE Delft (2013): Trucks; NS CACTUS (2015): NS; LFP CACTUS (2015): NS; LTO CALSTART(2012): Trucks; NS RMI (2015): Res.&Com.; NS Navigant Research (2014): NS; LFP Navigant Research (2014): NS; NMC Navigant Research (2014): NS; LTO Proterra (2016): Buses (on-route charging); LTO New Flyer (2016): Buses (depot charging); NMC ACTIA (2016): Buses (depot charging); NS ACTIA (2016): Buses (on-route charging); LTO Median (NMC, LFP, and others) Median (LTO)


Fuel Cell Electric Buses

• $1.2 million for single bus purchase 2016 • $900,000 for 40 bus purchase via New Flyer

letter • Additional cost reductions possible

12


Bus Prices (Constant Dollars)

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000 20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

20

22

2023

20

24

2025

20

26

2027

20

28

2029

20

30

Diesel CNG Diesel Hybrid Proterra BYD

13

Bus Prices

Bus Prices (Nominal Dollars)

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000 20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

20

22

2023

20

24

2025

20

26

2027

20

28

2029

20

30

Diesel CNG Diesel Hybrid Proterra BYD

14


Maintenance Cost Literature Review

• Available data supports minimum of $0.19 cost savings per mile – Brake cost savings and avoided regular

maintenance from Foothill study – No data to compare long term bus repairs

• Manufacturer lifecycle estimates reflect savings from avoided repairs at savings of about $0.25/mile

15

Maintenance and Brake Costs Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

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Maintenance Costs for Buses

Category Mid-Life Cost ($2016)*

Average Lifetime Maintenance** ($/mile)

CNG Bus $35,000 $0.85 Diesel Bus $35,000 $0.85 Low NOx CNG Bus $55,000 $0.85 Hybrid Bus $35,000 $0.80 BYD Slow Chg $0 $0.60 Proterra Fast Chg $75,000 $0.60 Proterra Slow Chg $75,000 $0.60 Fuel Cell $200,000 $1.00 * Mid-life rebuild of engine, transmission, or replacement of traction battery after 7 years. ** Excludes mid-life costs.

• FTA bus lifecycle cost report in 2007 identified higher mid-life cost for conventional bus propulsion system (including engine and transmission) for internal combustion engines for a large operator at around $47,000.

Maintenance and Brake Costs Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

Vehicle/Fuel Efficiency

• Fuel consumption dependent on bus technology and route speed

• Real world NTD data for different bus categories – Limit to fleets with single fuel type for standard buses

• NREL reports capture real world fuel consumption for part of fleet that is evaluated

• Altoona emissions test cycle and fuel economy in controlled tests

• Real world fuel economy best estimate of annual fuel costs and much lower than Altoona tests

17

Annual Fuel Costs Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

Fuel Efficiency Data

18

Annual Fuel Costs

Altoona test cycles Manhattan (Emission) Orange County (Emission) UDDS (Emission) CBD (FE) Arterial (FE) Commuter (FE) Speed (MPH) 6.80 12.00 18.86 12.70 27.00 38.00

2.4 3.1 3.4 3.2

2.5 3.6 3.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Fuel

effi

cien

cy (M

PG)

Speed (MPH) NTD: CNG (LTR: LA Metro, OCTA, Sunline, Foothill) NTD: Diesel(LTR: SFMTA, SamTrans, GGT) NREL: CNG NREL: Diesel NREL: Diesel Hybrid NREL: BEB NREL: FCEB Altoona (FE): CNG Altoona (FE): Diesel Altoona (FE): Diesel Hybrid Altoona (FE): BEB Altoona (Emission): CNG Altoona (Emission): Diesel Altoona (Emission): Diesel Hybrid

Not representative of transit fleet operation

Foothill Transit, NREL

Data sources: NREL reports, Nation Transit Database, and Altoona tests for 2010 or newer models


Transit Fleet Fuel Efficiency

2.4 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.5 3.6 3.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Fuel

effi

cien

cy (M

PG)

Speed (MPH) NTD: CNG (LTR: LA Metro, OCTA, Sunline, Foothill) NTD: Diesel(LTR: SFMTA, SamTrans, GGT) NREL: CNG NREL: Diesel NREL: Diesel Hybrid NREL: BEB NREL: FCEB Altoona (FE): CNG Altoona (FE): Diesel Altoona (FE): Diesel Hybrid Altoona (FE): BEB Altoona (Emission): CNG

Annual Fuel Costs

Foothill Transit, NREL

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Long Term Fuel Prices Fuel Type Typical Transit Fuel Costs Diesel (2016 $/DGE) $2.00 CNG (2016 $/DGE)* $1.00 Hydrogen (2016 $/kg) $8.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

2013

$/DG

E

Year

EIA Energy prices projection - Reference case (Pacific)

Diesel Electricity - transportation

Natural gas - commercial Natural gas-transportation

Annual Fuel Costs

* CNG cost includes, commodity, transportation, compression (~$0.18/DGE), taxes and fees but excludes station capital costs.


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Hydrogen Price Change with Throughput Sunline Transit H2 Station (11/2013 – 2/2016)


y = 4281x-0.858 R² = 0.7846

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

H2 P

rice

Throughput (kg H2/Month)

Source: Data provided by NREL

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Electricity Costs Depend on Utility, Charging Time and Demand

*Simultaneous charging means charging the entire fleet at the same time while “sequential” means breaking the fleet into non-simultaneous charging groups (here, a 50/50 split).

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

SCE PGE SDGE SMUD LADWP

Elec

tric

ity C

ost $

/kW

h

Depot Chg Simultaneous* Depot Chg Sequential* On-Route Chg (10 min) On-Route Chg (15 min)

$2/Gallon Diesel Fuel at Electricity Equivalent Rate = $0.28/kWhr

$1/Gallon CNG at Electricity Equivalent Rate = $0.13/kWhr


Annual Fuel Costs

LCFS Credit Value Base on Fuel Use

23


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Infrastructure Costs Technology Type Capital Cost ($)

Throughput (buses)

MidLife $ and Years

Useful Life (Years) O&M Costs

Diesel station 200 20 $0.02/dge CNG station $6,000,000 175 20 $0.27/dge CNG maintenance bay $1,000,000 200 NA BYD slow charger pedestal $0 1-2 -- 14 $0.02/dge Slow charger installation $15,000* - -- -- Proterra slow charger $50,000 2 -- 14 $0.02/dge Proterra Fast charger $349,000 6 -- 20 $0.05/kWh Fast charger installation $250,000 - -- 20 Hydrogen station $5,050,000 40 20 $5,000/bus/yr Hydrogen maintenance bay $750,000 13 -- -- WAVE wireless charger $286,000 - 20 WAVE in ground installation $220,000 - WAVE receiver (on bus) $103,000 -

CPUC Rule 15 and 16 - utilities to incur costs of grid expansion until 2019 * Based on BYD’s comment on the presentation of LA Metro. This number represents the installation cost for a 80 kWh charger, but it does not include additional electrical costs. BYD chargers are included in purchase price, but if purchased separately, 40 kW charger costs $6,000 ($2,500 for power interface + $3,500 install) and 80 kW charger costs $15,000 ($8,000 for power interface + $7,000 install).

Infrastructure Costs Draft for Discussion August 23, 2016

LA Metro’s Analysis • 170 miles sufficient for all buses, electricity cost is $0.13/mile • Delay of ZEBs to 2025 creates bias in emissions analysis • High mid-life overhaul cost for BEBs should be zero with 12

year battery warranty – Could replace bus after 12 years or extend useful life to 18 years

• 1.35 electric buses to replace one CNG bus not warranted – Conflicts with prior statements about route length – Does not reflect longer bus range by 2025 – Ultra-conservative use of battery not needed with 12 year warranty

• Minimal maintenance cost savings inconsistent with manufacturer information and literature review

• Long-term CNG infrastructure costs not included • Land expansion questionable

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Additional Cost Data Needs

• Cost for maintenance infrastructure upgrades – Conventional to ZEB – Hybrid to ZEB – CNG or diesel to fuel cell electric

• Cost for CNG, hydrogen fueling infrastructure • Other soft cost

– Driver training – Repair and maintenance training

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Cost Model Discussions with ACT Subgroup - … Cost Model Features • Timeframe: 2016 and 2040 •...

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