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2016Bay-DeltaScienceConference,OralAbstracts
226
Cost-BenefitAnalysisoftheCaliforniaWaterFix
JeffreyMichael,UniversityofthePacific,[email protected]$16billion,theCaliforniaWaterFixisthemostexpensivewaterinfrastructureprojecteverproposedinCalifornia.However,thesponsoringagencieshavenot,asofyet,producedafeasibilitystudyorbenefit-costanalysisoftheproject.Thisisimportantnotjustbecauseoftheprojects'largecost,butbecauseoftheoperationalconstraintsthatmayneedtobeplacedontheprojectinorderforittoreceivevariousregulatoryapprovals.Inaddition,thepolicychangefrombuildingthetunnelsaspartofahabitatconservationplan,theBDCP,seekingasection10EndangeredSpeciesActpermittothetunnels-onlyWaterFixseekingasection7ESApermithasimplicationsfortheprojects'economicsthatarenotwellunderstood.
Thispaperappliesstandardbenefit-costmethodologytotheWaterFixusingdatafromtheRDEIR/RDEIS,draftbiologicalassessment,andotherofficialdocumentsdescribingtheproject.ItincludesanoptimisticscenariowhichusesvaluesarederivedfromearlierBDCPreports,andabasescenariowherebenefitvaluesarederivedfromotheranalysisfromtheDepartmentofWaterResourcesandBureauofReclamation.Theanalysisusesa3.5%discountraterecentlyrecommendedbytheCaliforniaWaterCommissionandcalculatesbenefitsfor100yearsofoperationsfollowinganestimated15yearconstructionperiod.Preliminaryresultsareinthetablebelow.
base optimistic
Benefits
ExportWaterSupply $1,319,521,208 $2,822,409,124ExportWaterQuality $1,626,802,827 $1,626,802,827SeismicRisktoExports $0 $435,796,554TotalBenefits $2,946,324,035 $4,885,008,504
Costs
Ecosystem $700,616,872 $0In-DeltaMunicipal $100,000,000 $30,000,000In-DeltaAgriculture $411,087,481 $164,610,904ConstructionCosts $11,676,474,531 $11,676,474,531O&MCosts $591,658,075 $591,658,075TotalCosts $13,479,836,959 $12,462,743,510
NetBenefit ($10,533,512,924) ($7,577,735,006)Benefit/Costratio 0.22 0.39
Policymakersneedtobemindfulofthesebenefit-costrelationshipsastheyconsiderenvironmentalconstraintsandconditionstoapprovingtheprojectorriskincreasingfutureenvironmental-economicconflictintheDelta.
Keywords:economics,DeltaTunnels,WaterFix,benefit,costSessionTitle:EcosystemManagementChallengesSessionTime:Thursday8:20AM–10:00AM,Room314
2016Bay-DeltaScienceConference,OralAbstracts
227
AdaptingInformationManagementtoImproveNaturalResourceAdaptiveManagement
TonyHale,SanFranciscoEstuaryInstitute-AquaticScienceCenter,[email protected],Sacramento-SanJoaquinDeltaConservancy,[email protected],SanFranciscoEstuaryInstitute-AquaticScienceCenter,cristina@sfei.orgRecentyearshavewitnessedincreasedattentionnotjustonlandscaperestorationintheDelta,butalsoonwaystooptimizetransparentdecision-makingbyreconceptualizingtherelationshipbetweenrestorationprojectsandthelandscapethattheyaffect.TheSacramento-SanJoaquinDeltaConservancy(Conservancy)andpartners,includingSFEI-ASC,havemadecollectivestridesinrecentyearstobringtogetherlandscaperestorationprojects,legacyandcurrentwaterqualityinformation,datavisualizationtechnologies,andperformancemeasuresthroughseveralUSEPA-fundedprojects.Byworkingcloselywithagencypartners,researchers,andotherstakeholders,theConservancyhassoughttoaddresscriticaldatagapsandinformationredundancies,advancinginnovations,thathaveotherwiseimpededeffectiveadaptivemanagement.Startingin2013,theConservancyconvenedaworkgrouptoevaluateandperformthemergerofseveraldisparatelandscaperestorationandconservationdatabasesintoaunifiedwhole.ComingtogetherwererepresentativesfromkeypartneragenciestodevelopProjectTracker,atoolthathassignificantlyimprovedthemanagementofproject-relatedinformation.Followingfromthiseffort,theConservancytackledthechallengeofdiscovering,collecting,andformattingdata--bothlegacyandactive--thatcouldaddressquestionsofnutrientenrichmentandtoxiccontaminantsintheDelta.Thisproject,calledDEDUCE,helpedtoexpandthecurrentBayAreaRegionalDataCentertoserveadditionalCEDEN-compatibledata.Tomakevisualsenseofthesedata,theConservancylaunchedavisualizationprojecttobringadditionaldetailedwaterqualityinformationintoEcoAtlas.Finally,theConservancyhasfocusedonrestorationprojectperformancemetricswithanewproject,conductedincollaborationwiththeDeltaStewardshipCouncil.Theseprojectsmaybeindividuallyrecognizedasofferingincrementalprogresstowardgreaterinformationaccess,transparency,andvisualization.However,thewholeisgreaterthanthesumoftheparts,witheachprojectfillinggapstobuildaframeworkthatcan,ineffect,establishastrongbasisforadaptivemanagement.
Keywords:adaptivemanagement,performancemeasures,waterquality,datavisualization,landscaperestorationSessionTitle:EcosystemManagementChallengesSessionTime:Thursday8:20AM–10:00AM,Room314
2016Bay-DeltaScienceConference,OralAbstracts
228
LessonslearnedasChairoftheScienceAdvisoryTeamfortheMarineLifeProtectionActInitiative
StephenBarrager,BakerStreetPublishing,steve.barrager@gmail.comIwasthenon-scientistChairoftheScienceAdvisoryTeamfortheMarineLifeProtectionActInitiative.IwasalsoamemberoftheLeadershipTeam.IwouldliketosharethelessonsIlearnedfromthatexperience.
Keywords:Decisionmaking,CollaborationSessionTitle:EcosystemManagementChallengesSessionTime:Thursday8:20AM–10:00AM,Room314
2016Bay-DeltaScienceConference,OralAbstracts
229
AssessingExtinctionI:ExtinctionasaProcess
JasonBaumsteiger,CenterforWatershedSciences,UCDavis,[email protected],CenterforWatershedSciencesUCDavis,[email protected]
Whenconsideringlong-termvaluesofrestorationprojectsinplacessuchasSuisunMarsh,thepotentialforextinctionofnativespeciesshouldbeassessed.Butwhileextinctionisoftenattheforefrontofconservationconcerns,theprimaryfocushasbeenonprevention,notassessment.Inthistalkwediscussgeneralaspectsofextinction,followedbyatalkrelatingthisdiscussiontonativefishesoftheSanFranciscoEstuary,includingdeltasmelt.Extinctionisusuallyregardedasayes/nostate,butitsdeterminationcanbequitecomplicated.Usingpreviousandnovelapproaches,weproposesixextinctioncategories(mitigated,regional,nativerange,wild,visual,andglobal)whichreflectincreasingconservation-relianceand/ordecreasinghabitatavailability.Weexplainhowdependenceonartificialselectionistantamounttomitigatedextinctionandintroduceawaitingperiod(visualextinction)basedongenerationtimeratherthanafixednumberofyearstopreventprematuredeclarationofextinction.Guidelinesarethenoutlinedtoensureapracticalassessmentofextinctionandmaximizetheconservationeffectivenessofthesecategories.UsingimperiledfishesinCaliforniaasamodel,wedemonstratehowanumberofcurrentlyendangeredspeciesarealreadyconservation-reliant,reachingtheinitiallevelsofextinctionproposed.WithanumberoffishesintheDeltaandSuisunMarshapproachingextinction(e.g.,deltaandlongfinsmelt),ourguidelinesandcategoriesshouldbeusefulforassessingthestatusoftheselineagesanddevelopingmorecomprehensivemanagementstrategies.
Keywords:extinction,conservationreliance,endangeredfishesSessionTitle:EcosystemManagementChallengesSessionTime:Thursday8:20AM–10:00AM,Room314
2016Bay-DeltaScienceConference,OralAbstracts
230
AssessingExtinctionII:DeltaFishes
PeterMoyle,CenterforWatershedSciencesUCD,[email protected],CenterforWatershedSciences,UCD,[email protected]
HereweapplyourgeneraldiscussionofextinctionintheprevioustalktoSuisunMarshandDeltafishes.Thethicktailchubisaclassicexampleofglobalextinction,whiletheSacramentoperchisregionallyextinct.Winter-runChinooksalmonarecompletelyconservation-reliantandsubjectmainlytoartificialselection,thusareanexampleofmitigatedextinction.Deltasmeltandspring-runChinooksalmon,despiteintensivemanagement,stillmaintainpopulations‘inthewild’subjecttonaturalselectionandsodonotyetfitourextinctioncategoriesbutarelikelytoqualifyformitigatedextinctioninthenearfuture.Fall-runChinooksalmonarealsoarguablyanexampleofmitigatedextinctionbecauseoftheirnearlycompleterelianceonhatcheries,althoughthereisthepotentialtoreversethatstatuswithanintensiveprogramofmanagingfornaturallyspawningpopulations.Deltasmeltmayfacewildextinctionintheverynearfuture.Theuseofculturedfishto‘restore’thepopulationhasitsprosandconsandmeritsintensediscussion.Ifdeltasmeltaresupportedlargelythroughtheuseofculturedfish,aretheystilldeltasmeltoraretheyadomesticatedlineagerapidlydivergingfromtheoriginal?Wefavorconsideringsuchfishas‘real’deltasmeltaslongasartificialselectioniskepttoaminimumandthelong-termgoalistodevelopapopulationthatisonceagainsubjectmainlytonaturalselection,albeitinanovelecosystem.
Keywords:deltasmelt,thicktailchub,Chinooksalmon,Sacramentoperch,extinctionSessionTitle:EcosystemManagementChallengesSessionTime:Thursday8:20AM–10:00AM,Room314
