Cost Benefit Analysis for 1st priority TSIs
47
ion du 27/06/22 - Pascal FODIMAN - Planche 1 1 Cost Benefit Analysis for 1st priority TSIs Ad hoc subgroup of Article 21 Committee on CBA 25 November 2003 Version 4 - 17/11/03
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Cost Benefit Analysis for 1st priority TSIs. Ad hoc subgroup of Article 21 Committee on CBA 25 November 2003. Version 4 - 17/11/03. AEIF Report. Methodology Basic Parameter cost impact per TSI (based on reports sent to EC) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Cost Benefit Analysis for 1st priority TSIs
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Cost Benefit Analysis for 1st priority TSIs
Ad hoc subgroup of Article 21 Committee on CBA
25 November 2003
Version 4 - 17/11/03
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AEIF Report• Methodology• Basic Parameter cost impact per TSI (based on reports sent to EC)
• see CCS presentation report § 4: 01/16 RP01EN01 uploaded on Circa 12/09/03
• TAF presentation report § 3 : 01/16 RP02EN01 15/09/03
• Freight Wagons RST costs report : 01/16 EE13 EN01 03/10/03
• Noise costs report : 01/16 EE14 EN01 03/10/03
In addition on the 25/11/2003 :- Draft update of cost reports sent to the EC- BenefitsAEIF study on internal TAF Cost Benefit Analysis ECORYS study
• Statistics• Forecast assumptions• Global costs per TSI
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AEIF/ Economic Evaluation Group Methodology (2001/16-EE04/EN02/11.06.2002)
* Directive 2001/16/EC
* EEG Tasks diagrams
* EEG Tasks detailed
* Basic elements (discount rate, length of period, …)
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Directive 2001/16/EC
4 . Each draft TSI shall be drawn up in two stages.
First of all, the joint representative body shall identify the basic parameters for this TSI as well as the interfaces with the other subsystems and any other specific cases that may be necessary. The most viable alternative solutions accompanied by technical and economic justification shall be put forward for each of the parameters and interfaces. A decision shall be taken in accordance with the procedure set out in Article 21(2); if necessary, specific cases shall be cited.
The joint representative body shall then draw up the draft TSI on the basis of these basic parameters. Where appropriate, the joint representative body shall take account of technical progress, of standardisation work already carried out, of working parties already in place and of acknowledged research work. An overall assessment shall indicate the likely impact for all the operators and economic agents involved.
Article 6:
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6 . The Committee referred to in Article 21 shall be kept regularly informed of the preparatory work on the TSIs. During this work, the Committee may formulate any terms of reference or useful recommendations concerning the design and the cost-benefit analysis. In particular, the Committee may, at the request of a Member State, require that alternative solutions be examined and that the assessment of the cost and benefits of these alternative solutions be set out in the report annexed to the draft TSI.
5 . The drafting, adoption and review of each TSI (including the basic parameters) shall take account of the estimated costs and benefits of all the technical solutions considered together with the interfaces between them, so as to establish and implement the most viable solutions. The Member States shall participate in this assessment by providing the requisite data.
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The mandate granted by EC to AEIF requests the following working phases:
a) Cost Analysis related to the specifications of Basic Parameters,
b) Cost-Benefit Analysis on the basis of TSI implementation scenarios.
The method for the cost-benefit analysis proposed by AEIF was adopted by the Committee 21 as requested by the Directive and is applied.
Other Directives, in particular 2001/12, 13 and 14 impose to railways actors several dispositions the cost of which are not to be taken in account in the costs or cost-benefit analysis related to the 2001/16 Directive.
In particular, the opening of the market needs investments and costs that are to be excluded from this study.
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Task 5. Further
iterations of
alternative technical solutions
EEG methodology (2001/16-EE04/EN02/11.06.2002)
Task 3. Enquiry on
railway line & rolling stock
data
Task 1. Collection of the cost elements
necessary for the economic
assessment
Task 4. Assessment of the economic impact of TSI applying the Net Present Value method (NPV) together with the Internal Rate of
Return method (IRR)
Task 6. Elaboration of economic annexes to the reports accompanying draft TSIs
Stage 1 : Intermediate reports dealing with differential cost analysis (Net Present Cost) based on the basic
parameters and interfaces
Task 2. Identification and quantification of benefit elements
related to Interoperability
Task 6, Stage 2 :
Final reports accompanying draft TSIs containing full
cost and benefit analysis (Net Present Value)
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Task 1. Collection of the cost elements necessary for the economic assessment
1.1 Definition of reference (w/o TSI) and projected (with TSI) scenario
1.2 Investigation of the relevant costs per unit (investments and operating costs, including migration period costs) for envisaged scenarios
1.3 Differential cost analysis (Net Present Cost), using line and rolling stock data obtained under Task 3
Task 2. Identification and quantification of benefit elements related to Interoperability
2.1 Catalogue of possible benefits related to Interoperability of the conventional rail system
2.1 Quantification of benefits for Conventional Rail TSIs
2.2 Identification of the level of aggregation (including which parties) at which the benefit accrues
2.3 Identification of the impact of different implementation scenarios on the benefits and costs
Task 3. Enquiry on line & rolling stock data
3.1 Enquiry of the representative data based on the geographic and traffic characteristics of existing lines.
3.2 Enquiry of rolling stock data, especially powered rolling stock.
EEG Tasks detailed
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Task 4. Assessment of the economic impact of TSI applying the Net Present Value method (NPV) together with the Internal Rate of Return method (IRR)
4.1 Hypothesis for discount rates
4.2 Evaluation (calculation of NPV and IRR) on the basis of the subsystem data by taking into account the results of Activities 1.2, 2.2 and 3.
Task 5 Further iterations of alternative technical solutions
5.1 Iterations of alternative technical solutions, in close dialogue with the TSI expert groups
Task 6. Elaboration of economic annexes to the report accompanying draft TSIs
6.1 Elaboration of Annexes to draft TSIs in two stages (differential cost analysis and full cost and benefit analysis)
EEG Tasks detailed (continued)
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Basic elements for CBA
Discount rate = 8%, starts in 2005Sensitivity analysis with 6% at the end of the study
Length of the period :- 20 years (EEG methodology)- 40 years (Article 21 Comite, 22 oct.2003)
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Basic Parameter cost impact per TSI (based on cost report sent to EC)
RST (freight wagons)
NOISE
TAF
CCS
Pending : OPE
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FREIGHT ROLLING STOCK : 24 BPs(Based on rolling Stock Cost Report sent to EC 2nd October 2003) BPs : cost analysis complete for 18 BPs / 4 with work in progress / 2 linked to HS Revision11 with no cost impact6 with only certification cost, with work in progress for certification of maintenance establishment1 with work in progress about cost impact 2 with work in progress due to interface -> 1 with CCS (braking curve), -> 1 with CCS and OPE (Hot Axle Bearing Detector)2 open points linked to HS Revision2 with cost impact on a voluntary basis (not mandated by the TSI)
Main comments : new rolling stock concerned by TSI. low cost impact due to international standards (RIV, RID, …) already existing existing rolling stock : RIV/RID, except specific cases.
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RST-210-al: Safe access and egress for rolling stock RST-210-aw: Functional requirements: Strength of main vehicle structureRST-210-c: Doors closing and locking RST-210-e: Emergency Exits and Signposting RST-210-n: Securing of Freight RST-221-ab: Electrical protection of the trainRST-223-g: Labelling Marking of freight wagonsRST-223-i: Special vehicles for the transport of dangerous goods and pressured gasesRST-310-a: Content of the Freight Wagons RegisterRST-210-ad: Interface (e. g. Coupling) between vehicles, between set of vehicles and between trainsRST-210-s: Fire Safety
No cost impact (11 BPs)
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Only certification cost impact (6 BPs)
RST-310-b: Maintenance Plan & Maintenance workshop accreditation criteria (Freight wagons) : Maintenance plan (no impact), Maintenance workshop certification criteria (cost impact) -> Work in progressRST-299-a: Longitudinal compressive forceRST-221-g: Vehicle dynamic behaviourRST- 210-ac: Kinematic behaviourRST-221-a: Axle loadRST-221-ic2: Bogie and Running Gear
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RST : Certification cost impact (6 BPs)Difficult calculation of change certification costs :
- Before TSI : ° these costs are hidden in overall costs of RUs ° only one homologation by one RU for a type of wagon, thanks to RIV
- After TSI : ° awarding entities have to pay the invoices of NoBos ° only one certification by a NoBo for a type of wagon, thanks to 2001/16/EC
A genuine invoice seems bigger than hidden overhead costs !-> which true economic impact ?
Some extra certification cost for UK to be compliant with TSI
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RST-221-e: Rolling stock parameters which influence ground based train monitoring systems (Hot Axle Bearing Detectors)RST-221-ag: Braking performance (Braking curve with ERTMS)
Cost impact : 1 BP with work in progress
RST-221-ic3: Wheelset - 127€/axle, due to more test during the manufacturing process only in some countries (UK, …). Are not concerned : DB, ÖBB?, SNCB/NMBS, SNCF- certification costs also per wheelset series (certification costs done)
2 BPs with work in progress due to interface with other Sub-Systems
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2 BPs To be studied with HS Revision Process :RST-221-be: Aerodynamic effects (slip stream)RST-223-d: Cross winds
RST-221-ad: Environmental conditions for rolling stock (Range of functioning of components) : 1000 € per new wagon in average for non Nordic countries (NO, SE, FI)RST-221-bd2: Vehicle capability to transmit information between ground and vehicle-> 7 € per tag (2 per wagon), 2 500 € per tag reader (including purchasing and installation)
2 BPs with cost only on a voluntary basis
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Specific cases
See RST TSI, section 7.3.3. :
Table of specific cases arranged by Member State according different :
- track gauges (including OSJD standards (Baltic States)
- gauges
- axle load allowed by tracks
- climatic conditions
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NOISE : 3 BPs(Based on noise Cost Report sent to EC 2nd October 2003)
BPs : all BPs with work in progress for the cost analysis : initial costs estimated, maintenance cost to be estimated
BPs : all BPs with cost impact
Main comments :
new rolling stock concerned by TSI
wheel wear : maintenance issue (LCC)
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upgraded / renewed vehicles :
- first proposal of AEIF : not concerned by the TSI
- after 25/09/03 : study of 2 hypotheses
1) TSI to be applied only if brake system is modified for another reason
2) TSI to be applied for each upgrade / renewal with a new putting into service
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Basic Parameter Cost change (€)RST-221-nF: Noise Emitted by Freight Wagons New freight wagons
o Investment cost 0o Operational and maintenance
costs (per year) 1Available mid-December 2003
Retrofit costs for existing wagons:o 2 axles Average: 4 000 (2400 – 6000) 2
o 4 axles Average: 5 500 (3000 – 10000) 2
o Operational and maintenancecosts (per year)
Available mid-December 2003
1 UIC/CER/UNIFE study on “Noise implementation plan”
2 Estimated from the UIC Noise Report, October 2002
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Basic Parameter Cost change (€)RST-222-n: Noise Emitted by Locomotives, Multiple Units and Coaches New Traction rolling stock and passenger coachesDesign costs per series:
o Electric Multiple-Units 2 700 000o Diesel Multiple-Units (Diesel-Electric) 3 000 000o Diesel Multiple-Units (Diesel-Hydraulic) 2 400 000o Diesel locomotive (Diesel-Electric) 2 100 000o Diesel locomotive (Diesel-Hydraulic) 1 800 000o Electric locomotive 2 100 000o Passenger coach 1 050 000
RST-222-n: “Interior noise within the driver’s cab” Design costs per type of series 300 000Component costs per cab 10 000 – 20 000
Not possible to be obtained till today, and not easy to evaluate :Components costs for locomotives, multiple units and coachesMaintenance and operational costs
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Specific cases
- For use on UK network only :
Because of narrow gauge :DMUs (Diesel Multiple Units) : stationary noiseElectric locomotives, Diesel locomotives, DMUs :starting noise
- For Finland :
Because of climatic conditions :wagon with a diesel aggregate for electrical power supply > 100kW
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TAF : 14 BPs(Based on TAF Cost Report sent to EC 1 August 2003)
BPsPath requestTrain DetailsTrain running ForecastService Disruption InformationTrain LocationShipment ETI / ETAWagon movementInterchange ReportingConsignment Note dataData exchange for Quality ImprovementInfrastructure RegisterRolling Stock RegisterVarious Reference FilesElectronic Transmission of documentsNetworking & Communication
Total Cost 12302001/14/EC 307
2001/16/EC** 923
INVESTMENTS COSTS* - Millions €
* Not discounted** With extended geographical scope
The costs linked to others Directives implementation, or to the opening of the market will be not considered in the full cost benefit analysis
Not possible to define unit cost perBPs, so global cost were estimated
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Millions €
TOTAL 923
Infrastructure Managers - Total 416
4 "big" 166
12 "medium" 250
RUs - Total 507
RUs ("big") - Sub-total 195
2 high IT coverage 83
2 medium IT coverage 112
RUs ("medium") – Sub-total 312
5 high IT coverage 104
6 medium IT coverage 166
1 low IT coverage 42
Shortlines Open
Cost per stakeholders, as a “big bang”(1)
(1) maximum, because big bang seems irrealistic
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TAF
- Maintenance costs : different definitions -> a large range of rates : from 5% to 20%
- Infrastructure and rolling stock databases :
° The cost of data collection and of the entry of them in the rolling stock databases is included.
° It is not the case for infrastructure : only implementation of the software is included
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CCS
Scope :• Ground-to-Train radio = migration to GSM-R• Cab signalling system = migration to ETCSConventional Rail TSI is• quite similar to High Speed TSI (apart Chap 7)• applies to a larger, already existing set of lines and rolling stock
Conclusions might differ.
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GSM - R
• Migration already undertaken
• Most European networks have targeted 2003 - 2008 for completion
• For CBA, reference scenario and project scenario are broadly identical
• Benefits depend on previous local situation
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CCS
Network Estimated k€ / double track kmRFF 130 (200 if using existing, off-the-shelf
components); includes line-side signal ex-tinction & cancellation; GSM-R upgrade
DB Netz
Level 2, overlaid on line-sidesignaling
240 (excluding interlocking renewal)
UK Level 2, conventional sig-nalling removed, electronicinterlocking already installed
93
First comparable trackside costs
One has to compare what is comparable : interlocking technology and overlay are essential cost factors. Renewal of interlocking sets the pace of Level 2.
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ETCS costs, boardRetrofit is expensive…(here : level 2, no redundancies, acceptable only if
lineside signalling is kept)
1 345 k€5 weeks1 125 k€Hi speed train
424 k€3 weeks406 k€El. Loc.
Total costUnavailabilityEquipment + Installation
Type
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Rolling Stock = f (Trackside)Rolling Stock Migration, SNCF / RFF
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Line km equipped with ETCS
Ro
llin
g S
tock
Fle
et e
qu
ipp
ed w
ith E
TC
S
Overlay
Standalone
The first kilometer requires many locomotives to be equipped (if any benefit is to be obtained)
All points of the graphs are not economically or technically realistic
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ETCS : open issues
• Incomplete specifications (change requests and opent points)
• Rulebooks need to be rewritten
• A corridor is not just a line : how far should it be equipped, so as to contribute to interoperability ?
• Lack of cost from UNISIG side, but a recent hopeful declaration
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Statistics
* Wagons
* Locomotives, Multiple Units,
* Coaches
* Drivers’ cabs
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Statistics for wagons on past yearsAverage age of manufacture of railways wagons
Fleet structure in % at end of years 1990, 1995 and 2000 divided according to year of manufacture
in %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1995 2000
>=1990
1980-89
1970-79
1960-69
<1960
Raw data
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
1990 1995 2000
Source : UIC, table A27Railways companies included to have consistency between 1990 and 2000 :CFL, CIE, CP, Eurotunnel, NSB, ÖBB, RENFE, SNCB/NMBS, SNCF, VRPrivate owners’ wagons not taken into accounts in these charts
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Source : UIC, Tables 23, B23 and B62
Freight trends (total wagon fleet vs freight traffic) from 1970 to 2000 (EU15 + Norway)
505 251
246 461
-
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Nu
mb
er
of
Wa
go
ns
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
Mil
lio
ns
To
nn
e-K
m
Number Wagons for Rus and private owners' Mio. Tonnes-km
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Countries Railways companies 2001 1,0%Austria GKE 73 1
ÖBB 24988 250Belgium SNCB/NMBS 19719 197Denmark RAILION DK 2236 22Finland VR 12259 123France SNC 109770 1098Germany DB AG 182831 1828Greece CH 3539 35Ireland CIE 1856 19Italy FS SpA 66435 664Luxembourg CFL 2878 29Netherland RAILION Bnl 3331 33Norway CargoNet ? 944 9Portugal CP 4179 42Spain Euskotren 14 0
FEVE 993 10FGC 182 2RENFE 25867 259
Sweden BK 48 0BV 1207 12Green Cargo 16336 163
UK All freight operators 25566 256505251 5053Total
Source : years 1999, 2000, 2001 : UIC, Railisa
estimateUK : source = EWSSweden : Green Cargo data based on SJ data for 1999 and 20Data in column for 2001 are related to year 2002Norway : data in column for 2001 are related to year 2000
EU+Norway, fleet in 2001, annual number of new wagons (RUs + private owners’ wagons)
Forecasts for wagons
Assumptions of a 1st scenario for 2005-2024:- fleet constant- annual renewal rate of 1%
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Locomotives and multiple units (CR freight+CR passenger+HS fleet)
Traction units vs km run by trainsEU15 + NORWAY
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
1 97
0
1 97
2
1 97
4
1 97
6
1 97
8
1 98
0
1 98
2
1 98
4
1 98
6
1 98
8
1 99
0
1 99
2
1 99
4
1 99
6
1 99
8
2 00
0
Tra
in-k
m (
tho
usa
nd
s)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
Tra
ctio
n u
nit
s
Train-km
Traction units
Source : UIC, tables B21, B41, B42 EU15 : excluding RU in Ex-Eastern Germany before 1994
Growth in Train-km 1970-2001 : + 25 %Growth in traction units 1970-2001 : - 10 %
Trends from 1970 to 2001
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Train-km
Years per
Total Diesel multiple
units
Electric multiple
units
Diesel locomo-
tives
Electric locomo-
tives
Steam locomo-
tives
Total Passenger trains
Freight trains
traction unit
1 970 39 498 6 903 6 394 13 106 8 714 4 381 2,5 1,6 0,8 62 384
1 975 36 775 6 434 7 005 12 587 9 325 1 424 2,3 1,5 0,7 61 625
1 980 35 082 4 735 7 184 12 960 9 940 263 2,6 1,8 0,8 72 780
1 985 36 836 4 166 8 425 14 036 10 134 75 2,5 1,8 0,7 68 432
1 990 36 828 4 017 8 773 14 138 9 856 44 2,6 1,9 0,7 70 820
1 995 38 072 3 340 8 624 15 375 10 664 69 2,9 2,2 0,7 75 783
2 000 36 140 3 203 10 416 12 285 10 192 44 3,1 2,4 0,7 86 212
2 001 35 419 3 111 10 469 11 606 10 184 49 3,1 2,5 0,7 87 030
Total growth in % per period
1970->2001 -10% -55% 64% -11% 17% -99% 25% 52% -18% 40%
1970->1980 -11% -31% 12% -1% 14% -94% 4% 10% -9% 17%
1981->1993 4% -13% 11% 10% 0% -79% 6% 13% -11% 2%
1994-2001 -2% -25% 24% -14% 3% 17% 17% 22% 10% 18%
Source : UIC, tables B21, B41, B42
Traction units Train-km (billions)
EU15 (without DR before 1994) + Norway
(CR+HS fleet)
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Countries (RUs) LocomotivesNumber of cabs
Number of cabs / vehicle
Powered units in EMU and
DMUNumber of cabs
Number of cabs / vehicle
Coaches with cab
Number of cabs
Total cabs
Number of cabs / vehicle
Austria (ÖBB) 1163 2094 1,80 410 725 1,77 2819 1,79Belgium (SNCB/NMBS) 981 1647 1,68 787 1574 2,00 3221 1,82Denmark (DSB) 64 115 1,80 324 573 1,77 688 1,77Finland (VR) 635 1143 1,80 145 256 1,77 1400 1,79France (SNCF) 4767 8583 1,80 2073 3664 1,77 12247 1,79Germany (DB Regio) 1925 3845 2,00 3649 5803 1,59 9648 1,73Germany (DB R&T) 321 642 2,00 215 430 2,00 109 109 1181 1,83Germany (DB Cargo) 2026 3952 1,95 0 0 0,00 3952 1,95Germany - Total 4272 8439 1,98 3864 6233 1,61 109 109 14781 1,79Greece (CH) 153 275 1,80 132 233 1,77 509 1,79Ireland (CIE) 104 187 1,80 113 200 1,77 387 1,78Italy (TRENITALIA) 3577 5802 1,62 1438 2388 1,66 624 624 8814 1,56Luxembourg (CFL) 92 166 1,80 40 71 1,77 236 1,79Netherlands (NSR) 115 230 2,00 1824 2647 1,45 2877 1,48Netherlands (Railion Bnl) 178 320 1,80 0 0 0,00 320 1,80Norway (Cargo Net) 66 112 1,70 0 0 0,00 112 1,70Norway (NSB AS) 0 0 0,00 205 362 1,77 362 1,77Portugal (CP) 201 338 1,68 296 494 1,67 832 1,67Spain (RENFE) 918 1629 1,77 801 1602 2,00 3231 1,88Sweden 607 1093 1,80 206 364 1,77 1457 1,79UK 628 1165 1,86 4263 8523 2,00 9688 1,98Total (estimate) 18521 33339 1,80 16921 29909 1,77 63248 1,78Total based on full answer to AEIF Quest* 10692 19250 1,80 13273 23461 1,77 733 733 43444 1,81
Drivers’ cab
AEIF questionnaire + estimates based on UIC data if no answer. In italic : data being checked to have a consistency with UIC data
Year 2001
(CR+HS fleet)
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* AEIF questionnaire sent through the Member States + estimates based on UIC data if no answer (data being checked to have a consistency with UIC data) ** UIC Table 22, year 2001
Average number ofvehicle per series*
Forecasted number of vehicle perseries
Locomotives diesel 59 200-400Locomotives electric 60 200-400M.U diesel 45 200-400M.U electric 44 200-400Coaches 51 400-4000
Number of traction units in 2002 and forecasts
Number of traction units per series in 2002 and forecasts
Assumption for 2005-2024 : fleet constantFleet
Rolling stock type in 2002*2,0% 2,5% 3,0%
Total locomotive fleet* 17358 347 434 521Diesel 9615 192 240 288Electric 7743 155 194 232
Total powered vehicles in EMU and DMU* 16626 333 416 499Diesel 5478 110 137 164Electric 11148 223 279 334
Total coaches** 40721 814 1018 1222Total drivers' cabs number* 63248 1265 1581 1897
Renewal rateNew rolling stock per year
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Global cost impact per TSI
* RST
* NOISE
* TAF
* CCS, OPE : pending
Net Present Costs based on :Discount rate = 8%, starts in 2005
Length of the period : 20 years (EEG methodology)
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Global cost impact of RST TSI
* = Assessment of differential maintenance and operation costs not included
(1) This cost is a maximum : it is based on all RUs for which work is in progress to determine if this cost change occurs (excepted SNCF, DB, SNCB/NMBS where these specifications are already taken into account in the reference situation).(2) Open point for technical or legal reason. Work in progress for the economic evaluation.(3) There is no extra cost if the current usage of the wagon fleet does not evolve significantly. The assumption would suppose that RUs and Private owners chose voluntarily to equip the total fleet of new wagons with the Nordic characteristics. This assumption is totally unrealistic, and it is presented only to indicate what could be the highest extreme impact.
BPs NET PRESENT COSTS (M Euros)
Investment, maintenance and operationcost change
Mandatory
Wheelset (1) 12,7 (maximum)
Certification of maintenance (2)establishments
?
HABD (2)
Volontary
Environmental conditions (3) 75,8 (theoritical maximum, much moreless cost in the reality)
Communication between ground androlling stock* (tag)
54
Note:- Assumption : 1% of renewal rate of wagons
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Global cost impact of RST TSI per year
Millions EUR Millions EUR
YEAR Discount Total wagons fleet
YEARTotal wagons fleet
Factor Annual renewal rate Annual renewal rate
1,0% 1,0%2005 1,000 1,2 2005 1,22006 0,926 1,1 2006 1,22007 0,857 1,0 2007 1,22008 0,794 0,9 2008 1,22009 0,735 0,9 2009 1,22010 0,681 0,8 2010 1,22011 0,630 0,8 2011 1,22012 0,583 0,7 2012 1,22013 0,540 0,6 2013 1,22014 0,500 0,6 2014 1,22015 0,463 0,6 2015 1,22016 0,429 0,5 2016 1,22017 0,397 0,5 2017 1,22018 0,368 0,4 2018 1,22019 0,340 0,4 2019 1,22020 0,315 0,4 2020 1,22021 0,292 0,3 2021 1,22022 0,270 0,3 2022 1,22023 0,250 0,3 2023 1,22024 0,232 0,3 2024 1,2
TOTAL NPV 12,7 TOTAL 23,9
Table - Wheelsets : total investment cost change NOT discounted
Table - Wheelsets : total investment cost change discounted
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Noise
Note:- Assumption : 2.5% of renewal rate of traction rolling stock and coaches - Expenditure in first three years only- Costs for locomotives, M.U, Coaches are only design cost, instead of Cabs (components costs included).- Maintenance and operational cost changesTable will be added once these costs will be known for composite block (including the wheel wear).Maintenance costs were not possible to obtain for other items (Noise emitted by locomotives, …)
BPs and type of rolling stock NET PRESENT COSTS (M.Euros)Investment cost change*
Total In case a: 63-127in case b: 129-193in case c: 327-391
Noise emitted by freight rolling stock
Scenarios :a) New wagonsb) renewed ?/upgraded braking system** =0,25%i
c) renewed ?/upgraded wagons** = 1%i i
066
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Other BPs 63 - 127
-Of which Noise emitted by traction and passenger rolling stock***
Number of vehicles/series:(1) High : 400 for traction rolling stock, 4000 forcoaches(2) Low : 200 for traction rolling stock, 400 forcoaches
15 (1) – 35 (2)
-Of which Noise in-cab(Low/High level of the range of costs) 48 – 92 (70 in average)
i) % of the annual total fleet ii) see previous footnote
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Global cost impact of NOISE TSI per yearTable - LOCOMOTIVES, DMUs, EMUs and coaches : Design cost changes discountedMillions EURScenario (1) Number of vehicles per series : 400 for traction rolling stock, 4000 for coaches
YEAR Discount Factor
Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%
2,045 2,045 2,700 1,050
2005 1,000 4,2 5,3 6,3 1,8 2,2 2,7 2,2 2,8 3,4 0,2 0,3 0,32006 0,926 3,9 4,9 5,9 1,6 2,1 2,5 2,1 2,6 3,1 0,2 0,2 0,32007 0,857 3,6 4,5 5,4 1,5 1,9 2,3 1,9 2,4 2,9 0,2 0,2 0,3
TOTAL NPV 11,8 14,7 17,7 4,9 6,2 7,4 6,2 7,8 9,4 0,6 0,7 0,9
Table - LOCOMOTIVES, DMUs, EMUs and coaches : Design cost changes NOT discountedMillions EURScenario (1) Number of vehicles per series : 400 for traction rolling stock, 4000 for coaches
YEAR
Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%
2,045 2,045 2,700 1,050
2005 4,2 5,3 6,3 1,8 2,2 2,7 2,2 2,8 3,4 0,2 0,3 0,32006 4,2 5,3 6,3 1,8 2,2 2,7 2,2 2,8 3,4 0,2 0,3 0,32007 4,2 5,3 6,3 1,8 2,2 2,7 2,2 2,8 3,4 0,2 0,3 0,3
TOTAL NPV 12,7 15,9 19,0 5,3 6,7 8,0 6,7 8,4 10,1 0,6 0,8 1,0
Unit cost : Unit cost : Unit cost : Unit cost :
Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rateTOTAL Locomotives, Total locomotive fleet Total EMU+DMU fleet Total coaches fleet
TOTAL Locomotives, Total locomotive fleet Total EMU+DMU fleet Total coaches fleetRenewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate
Unit cost : Unit cost : Unit cost : Unit cost :
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Table - LOCOMOTIVES, DMUs, EMUs and coaches : Design cost changes discountedMillions EUR
Scenario (2) Number of vehicles per series : 200 for traction rolling stock, 400 for coaches
YEAR Discount Factor
Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%
2005 1,000 10,2 12,7 15,3 3,5 4,4 5,3 4,5 5,6 6,7 2,1 2,7 3,22006 0,926 9,4 11,8 14,1 3,3 4,1 4,9 4,2 5,2 6,2 2,0 2,5 3,02007 0,857 8,7 10,9 13,1 3,0 3,8 4,6 3,8 4,8 5,8 1,8 2,3 2,7
TOTAL NPV 28,3 35,4 42,5 9,9 12,3 14,8 12,5 15,6 18,7 6,0 7,4 8,9
Table - LOCOMOTIVES, DMUs, EMUs and coaches : Design cost changes NOT discountedMillions EURScenario (2) Number of vehicles per series : 200 for traction rolling stock, 400 for coaches
YEAR
Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High Low Base case High2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%
2,045 2,045 2,700 1,050
2005 10,2 12,7 15,3 3,5 4,4 5,3 4,5 5,6 6,7 2,1 2,7 3,22006 10,2 12,7 15,3 3,5 4,4 5,3 4,5 5,6 6,7 2,1 2,7 3,22007 10,2 12,7 15,3 3,5 4,4 5,3 4,5 5,6 6,7 2,1 2,7 3,2
TOTAL NPV 30,5 38,2 45,8 10,6 13,3 16,0 13,5 16,8 20,2 6,4 8,0 9,6
Total coaches fleet
Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate
Unit cost : Unit cost :
TOTAL Locomotives, EMUs, DMUs and coaches
Total locomotive fleet Total EMU+DMU fleet
Unit cost :
Total coaches fleet
Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate Renewal rate
TOTAL Locomotives, EMUs, DMUs and coaches
Total locomotive fleet Total EMU+DMU fleet
Unit cost :
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Millions EUR Millions EUR
YEAR Discount Factor YEAR
Scenario b) scenario c) Scenario b) scenario c)
Retrofitting rate -> 0,25% 1,00% Retrofitting rate -> 0,25% 1,00%2005 1,000 6,2 24,9 2005 6,2 24,92006 0,926 5,8 23,1 2006 6,2 24,92007 0,857 5,3 21,4 2007 6,2 24,92008 0,794 4,9 19,8 2008 6,2 24,92009 0,735 4,6 18,3 2009 6,2 24,92010 0,681 4,2 17,0 2010 6,2 24,92011 0,630 3,9 15,7 2011 6,2 24,92012 0,583 3,6 14,5 2012 6,2 24,92013 0,540 3,4 13,5 2013 6,2 24,92014 0,500 3,1 12,5 2014 6,2 24,92015 0,463 2,9 11,5 2015 6,2 24,92016 0,429 2,7 10,7 2016 6,2 24,92017 0,397 2,5 9,9 2017 6,2 24,92018 0,368 2,3 9,2 2018 6,2 24,92019 0,340 2,1 8,5 2019 6,2 24,92020 0,315 2,0 7,9 2020 6,2 24,92021 0,292 1,8 7,3 2021 6,2 24,92022 0,270 1,7 6,7 2022 6,2 24,92023 0,250 1,6 6,2 2023 6,2 24,92024 0,232 1,4 5,8 2024 6,2 24,9
TOTAL NPC 66,0 264,1 Total 124,5 498,2
Total wagons fleet
Table - Renewed/upgraded wagons : total investment cost changes discounted
Total wagons fleet
Table - Renewed/upgraded wagons : total investment cost changes NOT discounted
