Cost and value of wind power—implications of wind turbine design · 2020. 9. 23. · Investment...
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Cost and value of wind power - Implications of wind turbine design 4th Workshop on Systems Engineering for Wind Energy, RISØ September 13, 2017 János Hethey – Ea Energy Analyses
Transcript of Cost and value of wind power—implications of wind turbine design · 2020. 9. 23. · Investment...
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Cost and value of wind power -Implications of wind turbine design
4th Workshop on Systems Engineering for Wind Energy, RISØ
September 13, 2017
János Hethey – Ea Energy Analyses
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Agenda
• Trends in wind turbine technology and cost
• The importance of market integration
• Outlook for the value of wind power
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Where are we today?
• Auction results can provide some insight in cost developmentin recent years– Compare with caution due to wide range of ressource quality and regulation regimes
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Source: RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTIONS – analysing 2016, IRENA 2017. Added information for Germany (BMWi) and Spain .
Germany
Spain
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Trends in Wind Turbine Technology
• Increasing capacityfactors– Better rotor design
– Larger rotors
– Higher hub heights
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Hu
b h
eigh
t (m
)
US Denmark Germany
200
250
300
350
400
450
Spec
ific
po
wer
(W
/m2)
US Denmark Germany
Data sources: IEA Wind Task 26 collaboration, US DEO Wind Technologies Market Report 2016, Deutsche WindGuard, Stamdataregister for vindmøller
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0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2015 2020 2025 2030
M€2015/M
W
Investment cost onshore wind - Denmark
Technology catalogue
Trends in turbine cost
• Future cost reductions of LCoE largely depend on turbine design parameters
• Optimal turbine choice depend on ressource qualityand market integration
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Source: Forecasting Wind Energy Costs and Cost Drivers: The Views of the World’s Leading Experts, Ryan Wiser, Karen Jenni, Joachim Seel, Erin Baker, Maureen Hand, Eric Lantz, Aaron Smith, June 2016
4 MW100 m hub height301 W/m2
3,5 MW90 m hub height309 W/m2
Source: Technology Data for Energy Plants, Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk August 2016
Invest -15%LCoE -22%
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0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2015 2020 2025 2030
M€2015/M
W
Investment cost onshore wind
Technology catalogue BAU Likely Ambitious
Trends in turbine cost
• Future cost reductions of LCoE largely depend on turbine design parameters
• Optimal turbine choice depend on ressource qualityand market integration
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100 m hub height325 W/m2
Invest -15%LCoE -22%
3,5 MW90 m hub height309 W/m2
150 m hub height175 W/m2
Invest +50%LCoE -19%
125 m hub height250 W/m2
Invest +6%LCoE -26%
• Estimates for effect of hub height and rotor size are based on extrapolation from data from NREL (specific power) and Deutsche WindGuard(hub height)– More likely to over-
than underestimateadditional investment
LCoE estimates for Northwestern Germany
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90
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EUR
/MW
h
Average Large thermal Wind
Market integration and the value of wind
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𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 =𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛[€/MWh]
Power prices Western Denmark, Datasource: Energinet.dk, nominal prices
Value factor, onshore wind power Western Denmark
• Power prices varysignificantly
– By year and hour
Dry year
High CO2and fuelprices
Financial crisis:Collapse of CO2and fuel prices
Dry year
Wet
Dry year
Declining demand
Ratherdry
Rather wet and warm (low demand in Nordics)
Wet
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IEA Wind Task 26 WP4 – The value of wind*
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• System analysis at a European level of the value of wind in the power system
• Power system modelling using the Balmorel model
Focus
Impact of onshore wind turbine design on:
• System operation
• System cost
• Market value of wind power
Scenarios for technology development
*A. Dalla Riva, J. Hethey, and A. Vītiņa, “Impacts of Wind Turbine Technology on the System Value of Wind in Europe (forthcoming),” Copenhagen, 2017.
Specific power (W/m2)
Hub height(m)
BAU 325 100
Likely 250 125
Ambitious 175 150
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Market value and price evolution
• The average wholesale electricity price is not very different across scenarios
• The evolution of Market value is largely dependent on the technology choice
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Ele
ctri
city
Pri
ce [
€/M
Wh
]
Historical
Historical wind-weighted
Ambitious
Likely
BaU
Ambitious Wind-
weightedLikely Wind-weighted
BaU Wind-weighted
BASED ON PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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Levelized Cost of Energy
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TechnologyNorthernGermany
SouthernGermany
BAU 2.407 1.566Likely 3.244 2.284
Ambitious 4.203 3.206
Technology cost based on own estimates. 4% real interest rate, 30 year lifetime, calculation year 2030. NW = Northwest Germany; CS = Central/southern germanySources: DEA Technology Catalogue, NREL, Deutsche WindGuard, Full load hoursSystem cost account for 11-22%
NW BAU NW Likely NW Ambitious CS BAU CS Likely CS Ambitious
System costs 10 7 5 8 6 5
O&M costs 11 11 12 16 15 15
Capital cost 22 21 23 34 30 30
Total LCOE 43 39 40 58 50 49
LCOE excl. System cost 33 32 34 50 44 44
4339 40
58
50 49
33 3234
5044 44
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15
-EU
R/M
Wh
Result: Levelised Cost of Energy
Solar power?
BASED ON PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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Thank you
János Hethey
Mobile: (+45) 603 917 12
E-mail: [email protected]
Ea Energy Analyses
Frederiksholms Kanal 4
1220 Copenhagen
Denmark
www.eaea.dk
http://www.eaea.dk/
