COSMO General Meeting Five Applications · 2016. 12. 20. · Jacques Ambühl, Meteo Swiss; COSMO GM...

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

COSMO General Meeting

Five Applications

Sibiu, 2-6 Sept 2013Jacques Ambühl

Samstag, 31. August 2013


Plan

Use of COSMO-7 data to generate power production forecasts for photovoltaic plantsTowards operational Clear Air Turbulence diagnostics with COSMO-7Dispersion forecast for nuclear pollutantsGale warnings with genetic algorithms using COSMO-2 dataOptimization of sequential sailing decisions based on COSMO-2


Jacques Ambühl, Meteo Swiss; COSMO GM 2013


Use of COSMO data to generate power production forecasts for photovoltaic plants

Dominik Büeler ETHZ IAC


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Generate day-ahead power production forecasts for a Swiss wide system of photovoltaic (PV) plants in 15-min resolution based on COSMOBenefit of COSMO (mainly irradiance data) in meeting the needs of the energy sector for highest-resolution weather prediction data both temporally and spatiallyQuantification and discussion of meteorological and technical errors / uncertainties associated with a PV power production forecast based on COSMO


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Data Source Temporal resolution Spatialresolution

COSMO-2 MeteoSwiss 1 h 2.2 x 2.2 km

Satellite MeteoSwiss 15 min / 24 h 1.1 x 1.7 km

Surface observations MeteoSwiss 10 min / 24 h SwissMetNet Stations

PV metadata ewz - PV plants

PV production data ewz 15 min PV plants

Balancing energy prices Swissgrid 15 min Switzerland

COSMO-2: most representative grid point for each PV plant location as data basis Satellite: closest grid point for each PV plant location as data basis

All data are available for the years 2010 – 2012


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Method «Tilted»: direct and diffuse irradiance on a horizontal plane (from COSMO-2) are transformed on a tilted and oriented PV surface and summed up to the global irradiance

S

W

21°Idiffuse-tilted

Idirect-tilted

Iglobal-tilted+


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



PV forecast verification: «Tilted» | time series example | March 3 – 6, 2012


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



PV forecast verification: «Tilted» | RMSE | 2012 | corrected (only for prod. > 0.5 kWh)


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Towards operational Clear Air Turbulence diagnostics with COSMO-7

Fabian Binder ETHZ IAC


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



CAT Indexes:- Gradient Richardson Number RI- Ellrod & Knapp Indexes TI1 & TI2- Trend Term DTV- Divergence Modified Turbulence Index DTI ∋ {TI1, DTV- Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE)

Opt. Thresholds- RI: 0.7; TI2: 4.0E-6 [s-2]; TKE: 0.6 [J]; DTI: 7.0E-6 [s-2]

Trade off between thresholds and Volume event Tests in 2014


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



14

a)

b) c)

Figure 7: The encounter location is shown as cross (+) in a) and c) respectively as intersecion of alongwind (red line) and crosswind (green line) cross section in b). a) shows the vertical cross section in alongwind direction of TKE, TH (contours) and 2pvu (thick line). a) and b) are horizontal cross sections at flight altitude whereas b) is a zoom into the closer region.

met

er

TKE − alongwind cross section 21.01.2011 10 UTC

−6 −5.8 −5.6 −5.4 −5.2 −5 −4.8 −4.6 −4.4 −4.20

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.8

TKE @ 10910 m flight altitude 21.01.2011 10 UTC

−15 −10 −5 0 5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.8

TKE @ 10910 m flight altitude (zoom) 21.01.2011 10 UTC

−6 −5.8 −5.6 −5.4 −5.2 −5 −4.8 −4.6 −4.4 −4.2

−3.2

−3

−2.8

−2.6

−2.4

−2.2

−2

−1.8

−1.6

−1.4

00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.42.62.833.23.43.63.844.24.44.64.855.25.45.65.8

Example CAT Event 21.01.2011: Massif Central (F):Mountain Gravity Wave

Source: Swiss Airlines, Flight Data Management

Outcome: objective warning tool for aviation forecasters


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Dispersion forecast for nuclear pollutants

Pirmin KaufmannMeteoSwiss, Federal Administration


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



COSMO-7Dispersion path of an air parcel starting from ZürichFast estimation


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



COSMO-2Dispersion & concentration of radioactive pollutants starting from Gösgen.Comprehensive simulation


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Gale warnings with genetic algorithms using COSMO-2 data

Roman Voisard, Manuela Züger Uni ZH AI Lab Lysiane Mayoraz ETHZ IAC


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch

Jacques Ambühl, Meteo Swiss; ECAM2011

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz!"! #$%$&'()$*+,'-,.,/+'0),1'0$2.3+,14*2+5'*,65+7,89!

,

,

15:40$,;<,=4+').+52,$.0+7,3+.+5'*3,'-,/6533>$+?$+,*$.0,80$*27$*,@>$+$'/6533A,BC!CD,

10'), $.27, '-, +7$3$, 3+.+5'*3, �� 5)(&$)$*+.+5'*E,F7$3$,(.0.)$+$03,.0$,)$.340$G,$%$0H,+$*,)5*4+$3E,

I.05.J&$, #$3205(+5'*, K*5+,GL&C!CMC,,, N5*G,G50$2+5'*O,+$*,)5*4+$3,)$.*,, #$:0$$,(0$3+.3C,,, =50, (0$3340$, .+, 3+.+5'*, .&+5+4G$, @P1QDO, 5*3+.*+.*$'43,

%.&4$,R$2+',9.32.&,

-4BC!CM!,, 9$.L,'-,:43+,@3$2'*GDO,).S5)4), T*'+,@*.4+E)5&$,(E7'40D,-4BC!CMC,,, N5*G,3($$GA,+$*,)5*4+$3,)$.*, T*'+,@*.4+E)5&$,(E7'40D,+0$BCC3C,,, =50,+$)($0.+40$,B),'%$0,+$00.5*O,5*3+.*+.*$'43,%.&4$, #$:0$$,U$&3543,+G$BCC3C,,, #$6,('5*+,B),'%$0,+$00.5*A,5*3+.*+.*$'43,%.&4$, #$:0$$,U$&3543,

F.J&$,!<,9.0.)$+$03,(0'%5G$G,JH,/6533>$+?$+,3+.+5'*3,

V*&H, G.+., 0$2'0G3, *'+, 2'*+.5*5*:,?=?W%.&4$3, @*', *4)J$0, :5%$*, -'0, ., 3($25-52, G.+$, .*G, +5)$D, .0$,2'*35G$0$GE,

"#$%&$#'()!*#+,#-$(.,

F', 37.0($*, +7$, G.+.A, G5--$0$*2$3, '-, (.0.)$+$03, .0$, +.L$*, 5*3+$.G, '-, +7$, 0.6, %.&4$3E, F753,).L$3,3$*3$,-'0,+7$,(.0.)$+$03,(0$3+.3C,@.50,(0$3340$D,.*G,+0$BCC3C,@.50,+$)($0.+40$DE,U'40%'535$0,-'4*G,$%5G$*2$,-'0,.,2'00$&.+5'*,J$+6$$*,+$)($0.+40$,:0.G5$*+3,.*G,65*G,3+0$*:+7,.*G,J$+6$$*,(0$3340$,:0.G5$*+3, .*G, 65*G, 3+0$*:+7, 0$3($2+5%$&H, @U'40%'535$0A, !;"XDE, #5--$0$*2$3, .0$, +.L$*, J$+6$$*,3+.+5'*3, 67527, &5$, 5*, '(('35+$, G50$2+5'*3, .*G, 7.%$, 80$*27$*,)'0$, '0, &$33, .3, +7$50, )5GG&$, ('5*+E,1'&&'65*:,.GG5+5'*.&,%.05.J&$3,.0$,2.&24&.+$G<,

!"#$%#&'()*+$)",)-$%$#&.)!/"0/'11&%0)&%)2#"/1)3'/%&%0)24+#$1+) !")#

#

$%&'()#*+#,-./01)#23#4'5#6())#7(24428)(#9:21%;#<.=>2=;#?#@7:A));#BCCDE#

!"#$#%&'#%4#6A)#7().6%2=#23#.#=)F#7A%1>#0(2&(./#5G#(.=>2/1G#.16)(%=&#.#(.=>2/1G#7A24)=#0.(6#23#.#

4)1)76)>#0.()=6#0(2&(./# 9:21%;# <.=>2=;#?#@7:A));#BCCDEH# I6# 72=4%464# %=# 7A.=&%=&# 6A)#72=6)=6#23#.#

(.=>2/1G# 4)1)76)># =2>)# F%6A# .=26A)(# )1)/)=6# 3(2/# 6A)# 4./)# 0(%/%6%8)# 4)6H# $%&'()# D# 4A2F4# .=#

)-./01)#23#4'5#6())#/'6.6%2=H#

()*+&,"-#%&'#%4#6A)#7().6%2=#23#.#7A%1>#0(2&(./#FA%7A#%4#.=#)-.76#720G#23#.#4)1)76)>#%=>%8%>'.1#23#6A)#

0()8%2'4# &)=)(.6%2=# 9:21%;# <.=>2=;# ?# @7:A));# BCCDEH# I=# JKL:;# 6A)# 0(25.5%1%6G# 23# 7(24428)(# .=>#

()0(2>'76%2=#/'46#.>>#'0#62#!H#

#

$%&'()#D+#,-./01)#23#4'5#6())#/'6.6%2=#9:21%;#<.=>2=;#?#@7:A));#BCCDE#

!"#"$ %&'()�)'*)+,-*)./012-)&-*-342)'56/143789):1;8-</1=)

300 - 1000 generations1000 individuals per generationensembles with 20 individuals

Herds dynamics: nowcasting of gales with genetic programming

System under further development


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



divide.evaluate(pow.evaluate(fmo, 7.598043337179606), dmo)

Depth = 3Fitness = 5487.260577858043Hit Rate = 98.25662482566248FalseAlarmratio = 44.15378517637733TestFitness = 5450.160304096759Test Hit Rate = 97.48603351955308TestFalseAlarmratio = 44.092911493792556

plus.evaluate(5.295243401974644, exp.evaluate(minus.evaluate(pow.evaluate(8.235782453080361, min.evaluate(sine.evaluate(tt40), 7.224975929882489)), exp.evaluate(sine.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(log.evaluate(pow.evaluate(log.evaluate(5.426030439601154), exp.evaluate(2.016302169365234))), minus.evaluate(1.5110163068855542, tt60)))))))

Depth = 10Fitness = 803.8617518559158Hit Rate = 13.94700139470014FalseAlarmratio = 42.363112391930834TestFitness = 431.4222138055109Test Hit Rate = 9.427374301675979TestFalseAlarmratio = 54.23728813559322



http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



divide.evaluate(pow.evaluate(plus.evaluate(divide.evaluate(dmo, tt20), f00), max.evaluate(pow.evaluate(2.828094360716278, plus.evaluate(tt20, divide.evaluate(tp40, d20))), d60)), plus.evaluate(tp60, ifElseThen.evaluate(divide.evaluate(1.5081885565933717, d40), max.evaluate(minus.evaluate(minus.evaluate(ifElseThen.evaluate(f20, d00, multiply.evaluate(plus.evaluate(sine.evaluate(divide.evaluate(log.evaluate(ifElseThen.evaluate(tp40, minus.evaluate(f00, d60), 5.7217590097084, 4.168310361526711)), pow.evaluate(max.evaluate(plus.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(pow.evaluate(minus.evaluate(f20, plus.evaluate(qf40, 7.074758580356248)), 3.9596438991780456), max.evaluate(exp.evaluate(tt40), mmo)), multiply.evaluate(tp40, d20)), ifElseThen.evaluate(3.5117337093986056, pow.evaluate(max.evaluate(min.evaluate(f00, plus.evaluate(7.0407142440130235, tp40)), log.evaluate(minus.evaluate(8.215013810404919, 5.686086056525813))), ifElseThen.evaluate(minus.evaluate(tp60, exp.evaluate(f00)), max.evaluate(fmo, 2.077248774619843), ifElseThen.evaluate(qf40, ifElseThen.evaluate(d60, f40, tt40, tt60), 9.819823338454908, ifElseThen.evaluate(0.1293375089801585, 6.171938941943528, tp60, tpt)), ttt)), min.evaluate(sine.evaluate(sine.evaluate(min.evaluate(4.356468293326104, 3.7643533991009437))), log.evaluate(8.924252353471719)), tpt)), qf60), minus.evaluate(divide.evaluate(pow.evaluate(sine.evaluate(max.evaluate(sine.evaluate(plus.evaluate(f60, 4.901973747799307)), multiply.evaluate(d60, 4.444514844502521))), 2.8856566954867113), ifElseThen.evaluate(3.5282325518722955, divide.evaluate(min.evaluate(d00, qf60), qf40), 2.782942429981783, ttt)), minus.evaluate(1.5471842086219156, 1.4214887917363217))))), minus.evaluate(exp.evaluate(f00), min.evaluate(d60, max.evaluate(max.evaluate(plus.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(log.evaluate(sine.evaluate(plus.evaluate(qf40, tt20))), multiply.evaluate(tp60, qf40)), minus.evaluate(tt60, 7.393229781243173)), max.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(sine.evaluate(log.evaluate(mmo)), log.evaluate(log.evaluate(min.evaluate(divide.evaluate(f20, 2.5355487159252474), exp.evaluate(tp60))))), d20)), mmo)))), max.evaluate(dmo, d20)), log.evaluate(min.evaluate(plus.evaluate(ifElseThen.evaluate(qf20, tp40, minus.evaluate(fmo, divide.evaluate(mmo, fmo)), max.evaluate(dmo, mmo)), 4.703888157585869), max.evaluate(6.941210952688398, ifElseThen.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(6.1221500448510655, min.evaluate(plus.evaluate(1.9720986506835103, 2.4887295465961987), ifElseThen.evaluate(exp.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(0.7940071865385323, qfe)), plus.evaluate(d40, qf20), sine.evaluate(7.759870749566222), multiply.evaluate(plus.evaluate(1.6441563478507293, f60), tt40)))), f60, multiply.evaluate(tt40, plus.evaluate(multiply.evaluate(plus.evaluate(exp.evaluate(ifElseThen.evaluate(max.evaluate(qfe, log.evaluate(2.795088277634706)), qf20, ifElseThen.evaluate(qf40, sine.evaluate(0.5427474597208304), divide.evaluate(4.891146685200969, tp40), divide.evaluate(9.211053729636866, d20)), 3.3613880147278485)), max.evaluate(minus.evaluate(2.1476839510359813, 6.224490292998265), min.evaluate(ifElseThen.evaluate(tp20, pow.evaluate(6.055036006277885, 5.624835015943659), min.evaluate(1.2461272501542653, 9.388307443376117), f20), pow.evaluate(pow.evaluate(tp20, d60), sine.evaluate(5.278444724215593))))), f00), sine.evaluate(ttt))), qfe))))), min.evaluate(qfe, 4.608298012209561)), min.evaluate(min.evaluate(fmo, divide.evaluate(log.evaluate(max.evaluate(tt60, tp60)), 1.9858918908009104)), log.evaluate(pow.evaluate(log.evaluate(max.evaluate(8.79562243801495, dmo)), ifElseThen.evaluate(d60, tp20, qf20, 5.589801634828774))))), qfe), 9.036110890239984, pow.evaluate(6.12076610093759, 4.5673174527558995))))Depth = 20Fitness = 5045.881402259277Hit Rate = 99.86052998605301FalseAlarmratio = 49.47071277346507TestFitness = 5042.2535211267605Test Hit Rate = 100.0TestFalseAlarmratio = 49.57746478873239



http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch




Left: Kloten, without COSMO (only Observations)Right: Grenchen, with COSMO (FieldExtra) and Obs


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

112 Ø Met. Threshold

5.10.15.20.25.30.

35.

40.

45.

50.

55.

60.

65.

70.

75.

80.

85.

90.

95.

B_Simul_Ens_Exhib_29.05.09.nb 1

Efficiency of thewarning system

Customerexposure

OptimalWarning

ProbabilityCustomer profile

Warning profile (ROC)

Hit Rate

False Alarm

Motivation: aus der Finanzwelt !

Return(%)

Risk (volatility)

Low riskLow return

Medium riskMedium return

High riskHigh return

Inefficient portfolios& securities

Capital asset pricing

ROC vs Efficient Frontier


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Optimization of sequential sailing decisions based on COSMO-2 forecasts

Jacques Ambühl


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Optimization of weather dependent sequential processes

Seeking forward for options: building a tree of potential decisions

Following the best sequence backward from the objective, as provided by the tree

Sequential Decision: Dynamical Programming

StartObjective


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Out[322]=

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'Initialization ê Forecast HUTCL: 0 ê 14COSMO-2 W_10M ê 2013-06-15

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'Initialization ê Forecast HUTCL: 0 ê 14COSMO-2 W_10M ê 2013-06-15

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'Initialization ê Forecast HUTCL: 0 ê 23COSMO-2 W_10M ê 2013-06-1512'

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

9' 12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57' 0'

Réseau de Décision

Right:COSMO-2 10m Windfield (Extraction: FieldExtra)

Below:Decision network(with departure and arrival nodes)


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Out[307]=

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'

©Routage 2011: J. Ambühl

Date: 2013-06-15

Forecasting Model: COSMO-2

Forecasting Range: 0 - 33 UTC

Departure @UTCD: @ 8h 0mm D

9

10 11

12 1314

1516 17

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'

©Routage 2011: J. Ambühl

Date: 2013-06-15




9

10 11

12 1314

1516 17

Out[18]=12345678910111213141516

12345678910111213141516

30

60

90

120

150

Close Hauled

Beam Reaching

Beating

On Broad Reach

†W § =10 Kt Incidence 70°

Boat speed: 7.3 Kt

12345678910111213141516

12345678910111213141516

30

60

90

120

150

Close Hauled

Beam Reaching

Beating

On Broad Reach

†W § =20 Kt

Incidence 140°

Boat speed: 13. Kt

Right: Decision tree and optimal routeBelow: Polar diagram of the sailing boat(customer profile)


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Out[101]=

15'

18'

21'

24'

27'

30'

33'

12' 15' 18' 21' 24' 27' 30' 33' 36' 39' 42' 45' 48' 51' 54' 57'

171819

2021

2223

24

25

26

27

28©Routage 2011: J. Ambühl

Date: 2013-06-15

Yacht: S850_Proto





http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Classical technique in financial & energy tradingAlinghi, America Cup (EPFL, Prof. Dalang)

StartObjective

Seeking forward for options: building the tree

Following the best sequence backward from the objective

Sequential Decision: Dynamical Programming


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



Conclusions

The Customer profile is the yardstick in any optimization processin terms of her/his/its outcomeand exposure (risk profile)

Three fields of competence are merged Probabilistic forecastBio-inspired artificial intelligenceFinancial inspiration

“Computer to computer” serviceMeteoSwiss, COSMO applications: 110 Gbytes data / 24 hours


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



15

4.2 Jet Stream

Event 33 26.Aug 16:58 UTC Flight altitude 8147.9 m Location Southern UK

Figure 8: Horizontal cross section of horizontal windspeed and wind vectors at flight altitude. The location of the encounter is shown as black cross over southern UK. The red line locates the vertical cross section shown in figure 8.a), which is oriented normal to the wind direction.

Figure 8 shows the location of the encounter at the edge of a strong jet stream over

southern UK. Figure 9.b) shows that the encounter happened near an extratropical cyclone, and behind an occluded front. This event is located near several weather features such as rain clouds, front and jet stream. There is rainfall but no clouds reach the height of the location of the encounter (figs 9.c) and d)). This event does not show signs of disturbance of the horizontal flow field caused by convection, as seen in in the next case study 4.3 Deep Convection (fig 12.c)).

The incident happened at the exit of a strongly curved jet streak (fig 8) at the height of the tropopause (fig 9.a)). The encounter is located at the edge of the jet, slightly below the height of maximum windspeed, in a region with horizontal and vertical windshear.

This event is detected by all CAT indices. Figures 10.a) and c) show that the encounter is precisely located by TI2 in the horizontal as well as in the vertical.

Wind speed [m/s], wind vectors, 2pvu @ 8147.9m (flight altitude) 26.08.2011 17 UTC

−15 −10 −5 0 5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



16

a) b)

c) d)

Figure 9: The location of the encounter is shown as cross (+). a) shows the horizontal wind speed, TH (contours) and 2pvu (thick line), b) shows the synoptic ground chart (DWD, n.d.), c) shows the accumulated total rainfall and d) the vertical crossection in alongwind direction of TH, T (contours) and 2pvu (thick line).

met

er

Vertical Cross Section of Windspeed [m/s],Theta[K] and 2pvu 26.08.2011 17 UTC

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

222

2

22

2

22

2

290290

290

290

295295

295295 295

300 300

300300

300

305

305305

305

305

310

310310

310

310

315315

315

315

315

320 320

320

320

320

325 325325

325

325

330 330 330330

330

335 335335

335

335

340340

340

340

340

345345

345

345

345

350350

350

350

350

355355

355

355

355

360360

360

360

360365

365365365

370

370370370

375375375380

−10 −9 −8 −7 −6 −5 −40

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

Accumulated Total Rainfall [kg/m2] 26.08.2011 17 UTC

−15 −10 −5 0 5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

024681012141618202224262830323436384042

met

er

Vertical Cross Section of RH and T 26.08.2011 17 UTC

−45−45 −45

−45

−45

−45

−45

−40

−40

−40−40

−40 −40−40

−35 −35−35

−35−35

−30 −30 −30−30 −30

−25 −25 −25

−25 −25

−20 −20 −20−20 −20

−15 −15 −15−15 −15

−10 −10 −10 −10−10

−5 −5 −5 −5 −5

0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 5 510

10 10 10 1015

2

2 2 2

2

2

2

2

2

2

22

2

2

2

2

22

2

−7.2 −7.1 −7 −6.9 −6.8 −6.7 −6.6 −6.5 −6.4 −6.3 −6.20

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch



13

a) b)

c) d)

Figure 6: The location of the encounter is shown as intersection of the red lines (location of vertical cross sections) in a) and as cross (+) in b) and c). Figure 6.a) shows the topography with overlayed wind vectors for wind at flight altitude. The red lines show the location of cross sections alongwind and crosswind. b) shows ths synoptic ground chart of DWD (n.d.), c) horizontal wind speed and wind vectors at flight altitude and d) the vertical cross section of W, TH and 2pvu at 15 UTC.

Location of Cross Sections & Wind Vectors @ Flightaltitude 21.01.2011 10 UTC

−15 −10 −5 0 5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

Wind speed [m/s], wind vectors, 2pvu @ 10910m (flight altitude) 21.01.2011 10 UTC

−15 −10 −5 0 5

−8

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

met

er

Vertical Cross Section of vertical Wind W, Theta and 2pvu 21.01.2011 15 UTC

2

2

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

22

22

2

22

2

2

52

275275

280280

280

285285

285

290290

290

295295

295

300300

300

305305

305

310310

310

315315315

320320

320

325325

325 330330

330

335335

335340

340

340345

345

345350

350

350 355355

355 360360360

365365

365

370

370370

370

375

375

−6.5 −6 −5.5 −5 −4.5 −40

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

−2.1−1.95−1.8−1.65−1.5−1.35−1.2−1.05−0.9−0.75−0.6−0.45−0.3−0.1500.150.30.450.60.750.91.051.21.351.51.651.81.952.1


http://www.nzz.ch

http://www.nzz.ch

COSMO General Meeting Five Applications · 2016. 12. 20. · Jacques Ambühl, Meteo Swiss; COSMO GM...

Documents

Transcript of COSMO General Meeting Five Applications · 2016. 12. 20. · Jacques Ambühl, Meteo Swiss; COSMO GM...