COSMIC Overview and Status
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![Page 1: COSMIC Overview and Status](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062407/56812a67550346895d8de858/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
COSMIC Overview and Status
Bill KuoCOSMIC Program Director
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COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) 6 microsatellites launched in April 2006
Three instruments:GPS receiver, TIP, Tri-band beacon
All six spacecraft are operating
Produced GPS RO soundings:-1.9M neutral atmospheric profiles-2.0M ionospheric profiles-1,500~ 2,300 soundings per day
1111 registered users from 52 countries
90% of the soundings delivered within 3hA Joint Taiwan-U.S. Mission FORMOSAT-3 in Taiwan
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1.9 Million Profiles in Real Time4/21/06 – 8/4/2009
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Presentation of first results from COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3Published inBulletin of American Meteorological Society,March 2008
Anthes et al.
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GPSRO improvement southern hemisphere RMS Height Scores (Dec 15, 2006-Feb 18, 2007)
Courtesy: Sean Healy, ECMWF
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COSMIC: Impact on NCEP Operation (I)• AC scores (the higher the
better) as a function of the forecast day for the 500 mb gph in Southern Hemisphere
• 40-day experiments:– expx (NO COSMIC)– cnt (operations - with
COSMIC)– exp (updated RO
assimilation code - with COSMIC)
• Many more observations• Reduction of high and low
level tropical winds error
1. COSMIC provides 8 hours of gain in model forecast skill at day 7!!!!
Courtesy: Lidia Cucurull, JCSDA/UCAR
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• Skill score dropouts plague NCEP’s global model performance in Northern and Southern Hemispheres
• Dropouts are defined by 5-day anomaly correlation (AC) scores < 0.70
• For example, the 00Z Feb. 03 2008 case, using GPSRO + AMSUB + MHS data alleviated a dropout in the southern hemisphere.
SH 5-day AC scores:
GFS=0.65 (NCEP’s model)GDAS=0.69ECMWF=0.83
First guess+nodata=0.70First guess+conven=0.68First guess+conven+amsua=0.70First guess+conven+airs=0.75 First guess+conven+amsub=0.77First guess+conven+mhs=0.78First guess+conven+gpsro=0.79First guess+conven+mhs+amsub=0.78First guess+conven+gpsro+mhs+amsub=0.87
COSMIC: Impact on NCEP Operation (II)
2. COSMIC alleviates ‘dropouts’ in the Southern Hemisphere
Courtesy: Lidia Cucurull, JCSDA/UCAR
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• 12 COSMIC soundings used to construct X-section along NW-SE axis through the AR• The COSMIC soundings yield cross-sectional thermodynamic structures comparable in character
and detail to previous aircraft-based dropsonde surveys.
COSMIC-Derived Cross Section of an Atmospheric River
Tropopause
Polar cold
front
Tradewindinversion
Atmosphericriver
Reverse thermalgradient - LLJ
Neiman et al. (2008), Mon. Wea. Rev.
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Forecast: Verification with SSM/I
Valid at 0200 UTC 7 November 2006 on 36-km domain
No GPS
GPS Nonlocal
GPS Local
SSM/I
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The difference of 24h accumulative precipitation ending at 1200 UTC 7 November 2006 as a result of assimilation of GPS RO soundings. The left panel uses the simple local observation operator, and the right panel uses the advanced nonlocal observation operator.
GPS Local – No GPS GPS Nonlocal – No GPS
Evaluate 24h Precipitation 4-km domain
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An example of strong inversion layer on top of ABL
Radiosonde data23 January 200215.97S, 5.70W
RO observables modeledfrom the radiosonde data.The “step-like” structures inbending angle and refractivity
PBL study by Seregey Sokolovskiy (COSMIC) and Don Lenschow (MMM)
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Distribution of heights of strong inversion layers(BAL > 1E-2 rad) over North America
Winter:- fewer strong inversion layers over continent, more over the ocean southwards- shallower ABL over continent- deeper ABL over the ocean than in Summer
Summer:most sharp inversion layers(pronounced ABL top)over the ocean and plains;less over mountains
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PBL height estimated by COSMIC
PBL height averaged over 7 month period, Jan-July - 07
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Mean ABL height cross-section along the line AB (left) and DC (right). Vertical lines indicate the error bars
PBL height estimated by COSMICCalifornia coast to Hawaii S. America - VOCALS region
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Precision of COSMIC RO Data: FM3 vs FM4
Within 10 km
With 0.02-0.05 K precision at all vertical levels,COSMIC data areuseful to inter-calibratemeasurements from other satellites
Dry temperature difference between 2 nearby COSMIC Satellites
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a b c
COSMIC data to calibrate AMSU on NOAA satellites
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Ionospheric Climatology from COSMIC Data
Lei, J., S. Syndergaard, A. G. Burns, S. C. Solomon, W. Wang, Z. Zeng, R. G. Roble, Q. Wu, Y.-H. Kuo, J. M. Holt, S.-R. Zhang, D. L. Hysell, F. S. Rodrigues, and C. H. Lin, Comparison of COSMIC ionospheric measurements with ground-based observations and model predictions: preliminary results, J. Geophys. Res., 112, A07308, doi:10.1029/2006JA012240, 2007.
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Neutral Winds derived from COSMIC Data
Luan, X., and S. C. Solomon, Meridional winds derived from COSMIC radio occultation measurements in winter, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2008.
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COSMIC-II Planning
• RO has shown positive impacts on weather prediction, climate monitoring.
• An opportunity exists now to begin a robust, operational RO mission.
• Mitigate loss of climate observing capability on NPOESS.
• Major contribution to operational space weather.
• Taiwan and U.S. are collaborating on a COSMIC-II plan of 12-satellite constellation.
• The planned first launch of COSMIC-II is expected in 2014 time frame.
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Two Possible Configurations for COSMIC-II:
• Option A: – 8 satellites placed at 72 degree inclination angle– 4 satellites placed at 24 degree inclination angle
• Option B:– 12 satellites placed at 72 degree inclination angle
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Distribution of RO soundings in a day
FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC COSMIC-IIA COSMIC-IIBG A B
Different color shows availability of RO soundings at different hours of the day.
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Typhoon Forecast Improvements based on observing system simulation experiments
• We perform two-day data assimilation, followed with three-day forecast for COSMIC, COSMIC-IIA, and COSMIC-IIB, in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) study.
• Compared with the Control (without RO data) COSMIC-II gives far superior results (in terms of % improvement).
Intensity forecast Track forecast
COSMIC 8.1 25.0
COSMIC-IIA 43.3 79.1
COSMIC-IIB 26.0 39.5
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U.S. Regional NetworkCONUS network
Caribbean network
NOAA NGS CORS
IGS Network
SUOMINET
Processing
UNIDATALDM
UNAVCOPBO
Near Rea-time
ZTD / PWVResearchForecast
Global network
(Daily processing)
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Hurricane Dean Forecast
About 20 hPa improvement