Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence...
Transcript of Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence...
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Modeling Presence Only Data
Cory MerowYale University
![Page 2: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Occurrence Models
Annual Precipitation
PresencesMaxent
Software
Predictions
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occu
rrenc
e pr
obab
ility
Protea punctatawet dry
![Page 3: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Presence vs Background
PresencesMaxent
Software●
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●●●●●
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
Protea punctata
Background
![Page 4: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Background Selection ●
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●●●●●
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.0
12.2
![Page 5: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Maxent’s prediction
![Page 6: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Likelihood,in case anyone asks…
![Page 7: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Variation in Predictions for Different SettingsHigh
LowThis flexibility could be very good or very bad….
![Page 8: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Variation in Predictions for Different Settings
This flexibility could be very good or very bad….
High
Low
Settings affect
predictions
![Page 9: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Case Study – Mustards
InvasiveGarlic Mustard Alliaria petiolata
NativeTower MustardArabis glabra
![Page 10: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Invasions require extrapolation
? Occurrence model
What we ‘know’ already…
Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017
![Page 12: Cory Merow · 2019-11-18 · Modeling Presence Only Data Cory Merow Yale University. Occurrence Models Annual Precipitation Presences Maxent Software Predictions ...](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070913/5fb47e7dba7af0182644f9a1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Objectives
How will climate change affect invasion?
Are uninvaded regions suitable?
Merow, et al. PNAS, 2017