Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas GARP...

Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion

Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas

GARP Luncheon, 2015-11-19by Mark Perrin, P.Eng.

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Mark PerrinBiography

35 years of Engineering, Information Technology and Finance experience in upstream oil and gas

Increases value clients receive from their investments in analytics

Assists oil and gas companies to implement EPAP

Manages projects that arise fromopportunities to leverage technology

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Objectives

High-level overview of asset and facility lifecycle analysis

Benefits of adopting lifecycle analysis into – reliability engineering– maintenance management


Presentation Outline

Why pay attention Impact on risk management Where is lifecycle analysis used Lifecycle analysis techniques Benefits for upstream Implementation challenges A reasonable approach Conclusions Next steps Questions

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Why Pay Attention To Lifecycle Analysis


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Why Pay Attention

Value for Risk Management– Unplanned outages impact cash flow– Missed targets undermine investor confidence


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Why Pay Attention

Assets and facilities are complex Components have a lifecycle


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Lifecycle Analysis – The Bathtub Curve


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Where is Lifecycle Analysis Used

Downstream Aviation Military Automotive


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Lifecycle Analysis Techniques

Weibull distribution is a leading method – Works for small samples– Accounts for components that have not failed

Other commonly used life distributions – Exponential – Lognormal – Normal


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Lifecycle Analysis Answers

Where is this component in its lifecycle? When can I expect it to fail? How many failures can I expect? Which component should I choose?


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Benefits for UpstreamFacility Maintenance

Trigger:– Unplanned outage to replace a component

Answer the questions: – Should I replace other major components? – What spare parts should I have?


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Benefits for UpstreamWell Maintenance

Trigger:– Service rig mobilized to repair a well in a field

Answer the questions: – Should I service adjacent wells?– What spare parts should I have?


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Benefits for UpstreamDownhole Pump Design

Trigger:– Problematic run life

Answer the question:– What is the impact on run life of speed, pump

size?


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Benefits for UpstreamPlanning And Budgeting

Trigger:– Prepare maintenance budget

Answer the question:– How much should I budget this year for well and

facility maintenance?


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Benefits for UpstreamPlanning And Budgeting

Trigger:– Prepare production forecast

Answer the question:– What is the predicted availability?


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Implementation Challenges

Inconsistent method of reporting failures by Field Staff

Inconsistent historic dataFailure description Average of Run

Down Hole Pump Failure 689

PC pump 210

Pump Change 1014

Pump Failure 552

Pump will not start 160

Seized pump 35


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Implementation Challenges Enrolling Staff

Discover the value of consistent reporting – Meet or exceed production targets– Improve run life– Reduce operating and maintenance costs

Agree on consistent reporting – Level of detail– Set of descriptions


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A Reasonable ApproachIdentify Opportunities

Operations staff know where the problem areas are

Prioritize based on impact on cash flow


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A Reasonable Approach Data Availability

What systems are collecting data How consistent is the reporting Who owns component lifecycle data


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A Reasonable Approach Data Cleanup

A great position for a summer student Who is responsible– A cross division and cross functional effort.– Who pays


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A Reasonable Approach Pilot

Pick an area where the field staff are enthusiastic

Pick a sub-set of problematic components


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Start with Excel-based analysis


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Consider more sophisticated systems– Microsoft Azure ML– Tableau or Spotfire with R– MatLab


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A Reasonable Approach Implement

Prioritize areas Roll-out area by area Include learnings from previous areas


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Conclusions

Attention to asset and facility lifecycle analysis can:– Reduce the risk of unplanned outages – Increase cash flow certainty– Improve certainty of well and facility availability – Increase the accuracy of forecasts


Next Steps

Ask:– Is your company already performing lifecycle

analysis?– If not, are there problematic components?– Is there an appetite?– Do you have expertise?

Get help:– Canvass your peers for experience– Engage a suitable consultant

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Questions


Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas

Corvelle Consulting300, 400 - 5 Ave. S.W.

Calgary, Alberta T2P 0L6www.corvelle.com

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Clay Long403 710-6980

[email protected]

Mel Miners403 200-5544 MelMiners@

Corvelle.com

Yogi Schulz403 860-5348

[email protected]

Mark Perrin403 613-6987

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:MelMiners@





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Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion


Bibliography

Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering, Modeling and Analysis, Eduardo Calixto.

Life Data Analysis Reference, ReliaSoft Corporation.

http://reliawiki.org/index.php/Life_Data_Analysis_Reference_Book

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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas GARP...

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