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Cortright Talent Dividend Metrics - April 2013
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Tracking Progress Toward The Talent Dividend Joe Cortright April 2013
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Transcript of Cortright Talent Dividend Metrics - April 2013
Tracking Progress TowardThe Talent Dividend
Joe Cortright
April 2013
April 2013
Roadmap
1. The Talent Dividend
2. Year One Progress
3. Demographic Reports
4. Questions
The Talent Dividend
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April 2013
Talent Dividend
Annual Earnings(Inflation-adjusted) 1975
Returns to education have always been substantial
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Annual Earnings(Inflation-adjusted) Now
But have increased sharply over the past 25
years
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The college premium remains high
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April 2013
The hypothesis
• Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes
• Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive
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The evidenceEducation Explains Most Differences in Metro IncomeAnnual Per Capita Income, 2005
NO
RAL
ROC
SLC
BIR
BUF
OKC
HAR
RIC
LOUMEM
JAC NAS
AUS
MIL
CHA
PRI
VB
IND
COL
LV
SAT
KC
ORL
SACCLECIN POR
PIT
DEN
BAL
TPA
STL
SAN
MIN
SEA
PHO
DET
ATL
MIA
HOU PHI
DAL
CHI
LA
NY
y = 763.27x + 16466
R2 = 0.5846
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
$46,000
$48,000
$50,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006
Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
Updated to 2011
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Estimating the gain
• Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $763 $856 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area
• These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark
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Make progress at every stage
Only those with BAs have seen net job gains since 2007
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Year One Progress
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The Talent Dividend Prize
• Prize: $1 million to the winning metro • 57 Competing Metropolitan Areas• The Talent Dividend Prize will be awarded
to the city that exhibits the greatest increase in the number of post secondary degrees granted per one thousand population over a four-year period
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Calculation details• Data Sources:
– Degrees Awarded: IPEDS– Population: Census Bureau, ACS
• Weighting– 2-year degrees: 1 point– 4-year and higher degrees, 2 points
• Base Year: 2009-10• Final Year: 2012-13• Rules: http://ceosforcities.org/talent/rules.html
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Scoring degrees
IPEDS Degree Classifications PointsAssociate's degree 1Bachelor's degree 2Master's degree 2Doctor's degree - research/scholarship 2Doctor's degree - professional practice 2Doctor's degree – other 2
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Base year
• 2009-10 Academic Year is the base year for the Talent Dividend Competition
• Participating Cities were provided with “Provisional Baseline Reports” in xxx and given the opportunity to review and correct them
• The baseline is now established
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Year one reports
• Compare 2009-10 (base year) with 2010-11 (year one).
• Two reports– Detail: Results by institution– Summary: Metro area totals and score
• Data from IPEDS, and are preliminary
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Summary report
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Summary report
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Detailreport
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Detail report
April 2013
Year one progress
Population-adjusted college completion change, 2009-10 to 2010-11:• 47 Metros recorded increases • 3 Metros recorded declines• 7 Metros were unchanged (increase or
decrease of less than 0.5%)
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Validating Results
• Year one results are preliminary• Participating cities should validate their
IPEDS-based data with local institutions• Though rare, reporting errors do occur
– Wrong data– Mis-classification– Administrative Changes
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http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/
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IPEDS Key Dates
Talent Dividend Year
AcademicYear
Reporting Deadline
“Early Release” Date
Public Availability
Base 2009-10 October 2010 May 2011 October 2011
1 Year 2010-11 October 2011 May 2012 October 2012
2 Years 2011-12 October 2012 May 2013 October 2013
3 Years 2012-13 October 2013 May 2014 October 2014
4 Years 2013-14 October 2014 May 2015 October 2015
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Demographics
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April 2013
Benchmark reports
• Enrollment report• Attainment report• Demographic report
Demographic report
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Data Source:2008-2010 Three Year American CommunitySurvey estimates
Demographic report detail
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National data
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Confidence intervals
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Smaller groups not reported
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Big metros: More precise estimates
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All reports on the web
www.ceosforcities.org/city-dividends/talent/city-data/
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Questions?
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April 2013
More Detail on IPEDS
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http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/
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Completions: Collected in Fall
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Data types
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IPEDS Access
“Early release files . . . should not be used for national, state or other aggregate estimates”
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Reporting Institutions
• Branch institution: A campus or site of an educational institution that is not temporary, is located in a community beyond a reasonable commuting distance from its parent institution, and offers full programs of study, not just courses.
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/glossary/
April 2013
