Corporate Presentation December 2016 · Corporate Presentation December 2016. 2 ... ¹Based on...
Transcript of Corporate Presentation December 2016 · Corporate Presentation December 2016. 2 ... ¹Based on...
For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Corporate Presentation December 2016
2For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Forward Looking Statement
Presentation and Reader Advisory
This presentation includes certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. All statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical facts, that address future events or developments that Jericho Oil Corporation (“JCO”) expects are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are frequently characterized by words such as "plan", "expect", "project", "intend", "believe", "anticipate", "estimate" and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur. In particular, forward-looking statements in this presentation include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to timing and completion of JCO’s exploration and development program on its Kansas and Oklahoma oil and gas leases. JCO participates in said oil and gas leases as a partner with a private family entity. Please refer to the titled slide “Acquisition Partnership” in the Appendix for additional information on net ownership interests. Net production figures are quoted at the Partnership level throughout the presentation.
Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Some of the risks and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions in Canada, the United States and globally; industry conditions, including fluctuations in commodity prices; governmental regulation of the oil and gas industry, including environmental regulation; geological, technical and drilling problems; unanticipated operating events; competition for and/or inability to retain drilling rigs and other services; the availability of capital on acceptable terms; the need to obtain required approvals from regulatory authorities; stock market volatility; volatility in market prices for commodities; liabilities inherent in oil and gas exploration, development and production operations; changes in tax laws and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas exploration industry; and the other factors described in our public filings available at www.sedar.com. Readers are cautioned that this list of risk factors should not be construed as exhaustive.Although JCO believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Other than as required under applicable securities laws, JCO does not assume a duty to update these forward-looking statements. For more information on JCO, Investors should review JCO’s filings that are available at www.sedar.com.
Information and facts included in this presentation have been obtained from publicly available and published sources and where appropriate those sources have been cited in this presentation. JCO does not assume a duty to independently verify publicly available and published sources of information provided by arms length third parties.
3For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Long-Term Strategy
Target Fractured and Dislocated Markets
Long-Life Conventional and Unconventional Producing Oil Assets
Modern Development and Recovery Techniques to Underperforming Assets and Basins
Repeatable and Consistent Acquisition and Development Strategy
Positive Cash Flow with “Option Value” Through Stacked-Pays
4For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Portfolio of High-Quality Assets for Long-Term Growth
- Current Operations
Symbol/Exchange - JCO/TSX.V & JROOF/OTC
Shares Outstanding - 75,112,027
Equity Capitalization¹ - CAD $34,927,092
Inside Ownership - 19.3%
Average WI / NRI² - 38% / 30%
Hunton, Miss Lime, Woodford Acreage - ~75,000 acres Legacy Waterfloods
¹Based on December 01, 2016 market close price of CAD 0.465 per share and pro-forma for December 2016 equity raise
² For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
5For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Recent Highlights
Record Growth Through Acquisitions…
…With a Focus on Cost Control
o Jericho’s ‘patient’ capital base has allowed the Company to take advantage of the historically low oil price
environment and financial stress in the oil & gas space – creating value through the cycle
o Jericho has raised C$11.50mm through private placements in 2016 demonstrating its ability to fund
growth despite challenging capital markets for junior companies – differentiated story
o New - Entered into Joint USD$30mm Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility in August 2016
o Acquisitions in Jericho’s core Central, NE OK platform over last eighteen months:
o Continue to achieve recurring field-level cash flow neutrality at/or less than $20 / bbl WTI
o Integrate new acquisitions, take advantage of economies of scale, and drive operational efficiencies at the field-
level
o Negotiated new Purchaser agreements which lowered differential by avg. of $2 / bbl
o Re-engineer field operations / infrastructure
o On-going workover program initiated in March ’16 driven by efficient capital allocation decisions
Note: For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
¹ Reserve data based on reserve reports by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. at date of acquisition
6For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
168
742 753
616
946
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16
Recurring $ Opex / BOE Realized $ / BBL Recurring Operating Margin
Continued Execution of Strategy
Record Growth Through Acquisitions…
…With a Focus on Cost Control
Partnership Gross Production (BOE/D)¹
Recurring Cash Operating Metrics ($/BOE)¹
Well Downtime
Note: For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
¹ Average NRI ~78% to Partnership; Pro-forma for recent Enervest Acquisition in Pawnee & Noble Co.
7For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Reserve Growth
Record Growth Through Acquisitions…
…With a Focus on Cost Control
o Jericho deployed $6.29mm of capital in 2015
(~90% Acquisitions / ~10% Capex)
o Incremental Proved Developed barrels
of oil equivalent: 760k
o Distressed marketplace has driven
down Company F&D costs
o Growing option value on PUD, PROB
upside with higher prices
Note: For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
¹ Reserve data based on 12/31/2015 reserve report by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. Sproule Forecasted Price Deck: 2016: $45, 2017: $60, 2018: $70, 2019+: $80
Excludes recent 7/1/2016 Enervest acquisition (Pawnee & Noble Co.)
8For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Significant Financial Strength
Total Debt to Partnership¹
¹ For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
² Estimated percent hedged based on Cawley, Gillespie & Associates projected engineered volumes as of 6.30.2016 for collateralized assets
$- $-
$5.4
$4.6
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16
$m
m
Debt Outstanding Borrowings Available
Oil Hedge Profile²
New – USD$30mm Joint Revolving Credit Facility:
o In conjunction with Private Family Partner, JCO entered into a
USD$30mm Joint Revolving Credit Facility (Aug-16)
o Initial Borrowing base: USD$10mm
o Interest Rate bears at WSJ Prime (3.50%) plus 0.75%
o Subject to customary financial covenant tests
o Sole Arranger: EastWest Bank
o Tier 1 Bank with $33bn in total assets
o Entered into hedging contracts covering ~75% of forecasted
engineered oil and natural gas volumes for 24 month period
o Proceeds to be used for working capital, capex, acquisitions
and general corporate purposes
35%29% 30% 31% 32%
50% 56% 55%
40%33% 65% 65%
22%
$35
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Ave
rage
Hed
ge F
loo
r ($
/ b
bl)
% H
edge
d
WTI Swap Volume (% Hedged) Put Volume (% Hedged) Floor Price ($ / bbl) WTI Futures
9For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Jericho’s Go-Forward Strategy
o Disciplined growth based on sustainable crude oil supply/demand fundamentals and price
o WTI above $35 - Maintain flexibility
o Mid-to-Upper $40s - Arrest decline rates and continue workover Program targeting low-risk up-hole
completions, re-fracs etc.
o At $60+ - Consider adding drilling rigs
Maintain Financial Flexibility & Target Opportunistic Acquisitions
Initiate Drilling Program
Incremental Production Growth through low-risk shut-in wells
$25 W
TI (c
ash
flo
w n
eu
tral)
$50 $40 $60 $70
10For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
2016 Jericho’s Opportunity
11For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Where do we find (option) value: Central Oklahoma
o Capital flight is swiftest from the upper level, higher-cost basins: The Mississippian Basin has seen the steepest year
over year decline (%) in the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count compared to other Major On-Shore basins, a function of capital
flight from the region…Sellers seem most distressed in this basin, increasing asset supply and lowering bid-ask spreads
o Where Jericho does NOT want to be: Distressed companies and buyers of assets (PE) alike, have sought shelter in the
basins offering the most current, compelling drilling economics;
o As a result, there is a scarcity premium being placed on these basins; don’t follow ‘capital’ into crowded basins where
valuations remain high (e.g., Permian acreage valuations have not declined despite the collapse in commodity prices)
o Unfavorable drilling economics at current strip have no relation to operating economics (which underwrite JCO deals)
12For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Mississippian Basin: Knowledge is PowerDay After the Game: Understanding What Went Wrong (and Right!) (2009 – 2015):
o Current acreage delineated over six years of development (2009 – 2015) with highly mixed and variable results
o Timeline is important: Bakken-players and those who got locked out of Bakken land-grab (2009-2011)
flocked to Mississippian (2012) as “next” horizontal shale play
o Early results challenged with a focus on holding acreage and limited understanding of formation and lack of
optimized completion practices
o Death of the basin has been greatly exaggerated but has allowed cheap entry as oil prices collapsed
o Learned knowledge and data gleamed from ~1,100 HZ wells drilled to date in Mississippian Lime and
Woodford Shale formations
o Ability to ‘Monday Morning Quarterback’ and enhance future well performance through best practices
o ‘15 and ‘16 vintage results show strong well-over-well economics
Opportunity to Utilize Enhanced Drilling and Completions Practices (2016+):
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mississippian Oil Rigs Bakken Oil Rigs
Design & Drilling:
o Short radius curves
o Casing designed for higher pressure
fracturing
o Upper two Mississippian depositional
packages exhibit best matrix
porosities and most open natural
fractures
o Uncemented Packer & Sleeve (Miss)
Completion:
o Tighter frac stage spacing to utilize
entire formation (~100ft stage
spacing)
o 28+ stages vs. 13 stages historically
o Enhanced diversion techniques
o Ideal cluster amount (5-6 / stage)
o Modify completion fluids to eliminate
formation damage
o Increase proppant up to 1,200 lbs / ft
Source: Baker Hughes North America Weekly Rig Count as of 11/01/2016
13For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Mississippian Basin: Notable Historical Activity Across Position
Jericho OilNix 12-2H
30-Day Oil: 4,388365Day Oil: 34,529
Jericho OilColclazier 29-2H
30-Day Oil: 18,123365Day Oil: 44,377
Jericho OilGilbert 1H-29
30-Day Oil: 15,232365Day Oil: 34,644
Jericho OilYerbic 1H-21
30-Day Oil: 6,943365Day Oil: 25,523
Jericho OilRipley 1H-31
30-Day Oil: 7,322365Day Oil: 47,140
BASIN PEERTYPE CURVE
30-Day Oil: 8,173365Day Oil: 39,289
Jericho OilWheeler 1-20H
30-Day Oil: 5,547365Day Oil: 29,883
Jericho OilGWH 1H-4
30-Day Oil: 5,619365Day Oil: 24,935
Devon EnergyWiseman 1WH-2630-Day Oil: 7,467
365Day Oil: 42,166
Devon EnergyDixie 1MH-32
30-Day Oil: 8,836365Day Oil: 28,274
Mississippian Woodford
Devon EnergyHightower 1MH-1230-Day Oil: 9,862
365Day Oil: 48,717
Devon EnergyHightower 1MH-730-Day Oil: 6,057
365Day Oil: 38,657
14For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Potential for Strong Mississippian Performance Across Position
Key Points:
o Mississippian has been a proven formation with
excellent results across core acreage position
o While results historically have been variable due to
high activity, strong repeatability with new enhanced
completions are possible
o Latest completion designs allow more rock to be
contacted closer to wellbore
o CWC ~$2mm per well for 4,500’ lateral
o Incremental drillable inventory to acquisition case of
assets
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bar
rels
of
Oil
Months
132MBO Peer Type Curve Gilbert 1H-32 RIPLEY 31 1H
Select Operated Mississippian Wells
Well Name 30day Oil (bbls) 365day Oil (bbls)
Peer Type Curve 8,173 39,289
Ripley 1H-31 7,322 47,140
Gilbert 1H-32 15,232 34,644
Nix 12-2H 4,388 34,529
Yerbic 21-1H 6,943 25,523
Colclazier 29-2H 18,123 44,377
Mississipian Well Performance (Vintage Completion Design)
Selected Top Mississippian Wells Across Position
15For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Mississippian Basin: Peer / Area Type Curve
$5.0 $4.4
$2.1 $1.9
2013 2014 2015 2016
Mississippian Basin D&C Cost Evolution ($MM)²
27%33%
39%46%
52%
$45 $50 $55 $60 $65
Single Well Economic Sensitivity (% IRR)¹
$787 $1,043
$1,298 $1,554
$1,809
$45 $50 $55 $60 $65
Single Well Economic Sensitivity (NPV-10 $M)¹
¹ Type curve calculated using $55 WTI and $2.75 NYMEX fixed for life of well; IRR and NPV sensitivities calculated using $2.75 NYMEX fixed for life of well.
² D&C costs from third-party AFE’s and public filings.
16For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Stacked Pays: Stratigraphic Column and Type Log
Key Points:
o Multiple productive zones in entire
stratigraphic column
o Historic vertical production largely
targeted Pennsylvanian stratigraphic
plays or Ordovician structural traps
o Significant remaining upside for
horizontal development for
Mississippi Lime and Woodford Shale
o Multiple zones for water disposal
injection
17For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Acreage Position Overview
18For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Northern Position: Multiple Targets of Opportunity
2,250’
Current Target
Future Target
Key Points:
o 30,000 net acres HBP on
Northern Position prospective
in multiple liquids-rich
geological horizons
o Current producing horizontal
wells in Miss Lime and
Woodford shale
o Current producing vertical
wells in Cleveland and
Redfork
o Potential for multiple wells
per DSU (1mile x 1mile)
19For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Southern Position: Multiple Targets of Opportunity
Current Target
Future Target
Key Points:
o 15,000 net acres HBP on
Southern Position prospective
in multiple liquids-rich
geological horizons
o Current producing horizontal
wells in Woodford and
Hunton
o Current producing vertical
wells in Wilcox and Penn
Sands
o Potential for multiple wells per
DSU (1mile x 1mile)
1,650’
For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
The Appendix
21For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
o Acquisitions will be largely underpinned by PDP value at current strip pricing with limited PUD, Probable or Possible
value
o Producing assets with positive field level cash flow
o Incremental PDP return through operational enhancements and cost reductions
o Constrained capital structures, mis-management and poor drilling have been exposed by low oil
prices
o Jericho is uniquely positioned with ample cash flow and liquidity to take advantage of this market
o Jericho seeks assets with “option value” through stacked–pays that become economic at higher prices or that have
the potential to become economic at current prices through efficiency realizations
o Focus on plays that have strong vertical and horizontal drilling economics at marginally higher prices
o Single-zone mind-set of shale boom left behind many by-passed zones
o Market for larger deals and within lowest break-even basins is very efficient – not going to be able to ‘steal’ assets
o Continue to focus on rolling up low-middle market (too big for individuals yet too small to build scale for
Mid/ Large-cap Companies and PE funds) opportunities with cash flow positive production and high-quality
development opportunities
o Willingness to be creative to narrow the bid-ask spread (use of Jericho stock to eliminate ‘binary’ cash-only
outcome giving hope to sellers)
Capital Allocation: Jericho Acquisition Drivers
22For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
2015 Reserves Overview
Year End 2015 Reserves¹
Note: For Jericho Ownership breakdown please see appendix slide “Acquisition Partnership”
¹ Reserve data based on 12/31/2015 reserve report by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. Sproule Forecasted Price Deck: 2016: $45, 2017: $60, 2018: $70, 2019+: $80; Excludes
7/1/2016 Enervest Acquisition (Pawnee & Noble Co.)
23For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
Acquisition Partnership (Illustrative Ownership)
Jericho Oil (“JCO”) Private Family (“PF”)
“AcquisitionCo”
~WI/NRI – Asset ‘A’
50% 50%
100%
o Strategic Partnership Advantages:
o Accelerate growth strategy during current low-oil price environment
o Target of 50%/50% PF ownership of ‘asset’ aligns interest
¹ Approximate ownership split as of 9/30/2016 weighted by Gross BOEPD to Working Interest for Q32016
² JCO has the option to purchase up to 50% interest
24For discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell – Past performance is not indicative of future results – Actual production may not be as projected
o Corporate Headquarters
604.343.4534
750 W Pender Street, Suite 350
Vancouver, BC, V6C 2T7
o Regional Headquarters
321 South Boston, Suite 301
Tulsa, OK 74103
918.986.7611
www.jerichooil.com
o Land Owner Relations
Contact Us
o Director, Acquisitions & Divestitures
Ryan Breen
918.986.7617
o Director, Investor Relations
Tony Blancato
918.986.7616
o Director, Corporate
Communications
Adam Rabiner
604.343.4534
o