Coronavirus Covid-19 Daily Data Summary€¦ · BizAnalytiq Consulting _____ 9 Current Maximum...

Coronavirus Covid-19Daily Data Summary

2020-06-29

Craig St John Ayre

Steven Beukes

BizAnalytiq Consulting

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Coronavirus Covid-19 Data Summary 2020-03-22

Global Cumulative Confirmed Cases by Country

Global Active Cases by Country

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Latest Daily Country Rankings

New Confirmed Cases Deaths Recoveries

Sum of PAtientCOunt Sum of PAtientCOunt Sum of PAtientCOunt

1 USA 38845 Brazil 552 Brazil 18303

2 Brazil 30476 India 380 India 12010

3 India 19459 Colombia 310 USA 5856

4 Colombia 7335 Mexico 267 Russia 5733

5 Russia 6784 USA 264 Chile 4155

6 South Africa 6334 Peru 182 Peru 3974

7 Chile 4216 Chile 162 Mexico 3925

8 Mexico 4050 Iran 144 Colombia 3346

9 Saudi Arabia 3989 Russia 102 Pakistan 2783

10 Bangladesh 3809 Iraq 96 Iran 2649

11 Pakistan 3557 Egypt 81 Saudi Arabia 2627

12 Peru 3430 Pakistan 49 Afghanistan 1930

13 Iran 2489 Bolivia 44 South Africa 1831

14 Argentina 2189 South Africa 43 Qatar 1477

15 Iraq 2140 Bangladesh 43 Turkey 1413

16 Turkey 1356 Saudi Arabia 40 Bangladesh 1409

17 Egypt 1265 United Kingdom 36 Iraq 1184

18 Indonesia 1198 Indonesia 34 Indonesia 1027

19 Oman 1197 Argentina 25 Argentina 991

20 Honduras 1075 Romania 23 Kuwait 908


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USA new confirmed cases rise again

Coronavirus Covid-19 Infection Offtake Curves


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Infection Offtake Curves


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Coronavirus Covid-19 CAGR for Selected Countries


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Current Maximum

Confirmed Cases

Days to

Maximum from

first 100 Cases

Daily CAGR to

reach Current

Maximum

Argentina 59 933 101 6.5%

Australia 7 764 111 4.0%

Austria 17 654 113 4.7%

Belgium 61 295 115 5.7%

Brazil 1 344 143 108 9.2%

China 84 743 0

Egypt 65 188 107 6.2%

France 200 195 119 6.6%

Germany 194 693 120 6.5%

India 548 318 107 8.4%

Iran 222 669 124 6.4%

Italy 240 310 127 6.3%

Korea, South 12 715 129 3.8%

Netherlands 50 355 115 5.6%

Nigeria 24 567 92 6.2%

Norway 8 855 115 4.0%

Russia 633 563 104 8.8%

South Africa 138 134 103 7.3%

Spain 248 770 119 6.8%

Sweden 65 137 115 5.8%

United Kingdom 312 640 116 7.2%

USA 2 510 151 116 9.1%

Coronavirus Covid-19 Most Recent Doubling Times (Days)


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Global Death Distribution

Global Cumulative Deaths by Country


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Global Cumulative Deaths


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Global Daily Deaths


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Deaths Offtake Curves


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Deaths Offtake Curves


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Coronavirus Covid-19 CAGR for Selected Countries


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Current

Maximum

Confirmed Cases

Days to

Maximum

from first

100 Cases

Daily CAGR

to reach

Current

Maximum

Argentina 1 232 76 3.4%

Australia 104 39 0.1%

Austria 702 91 2.2%

Belgium 9 732 97 4.8%

Brazil 57 622 93 7.1%

China 5 172 0

Egypt 2 789 82 4.1%

France 29 781 105 5.6%

Germany 8 968 98 4.7%

India 16 475 84 6.3%

Iran 10 508 116 4.1%

Italy 34 738 117 5.1%

Korea, South 283 99 1.1%

Netherlands 6 124 101 4.2%

Nigeria 565 54 3.3%

Norway 249 82 1.1%

Russia 9 060 79 5.9%

South Africa 2 456 61 5.4%

Spain 28 752 108 5.4%

Sweden 5 280 94 4.3%

United Kingdom 43 634 103 6.1%

USA 125 540 104 7.1%

Australia, Austria, Greece, SouthKorea, New Zealand and Chinahave relatively short epidemicperiods.

Belgium, Canada, Italy,Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden,the United Kingdom and the USAhave relatively long epidemicperiods.

South Africa, India, Russia,Mexico, Chile and Brazil are stillin exponential growth phase, soepidemic duration cannot beassessed.

Chile has experienced a suddensharp decline, but this may bedue to reporting anomalies.

Iran continues to show a strongprogression into a second waveof infections.

The USA, Denmark, Israel,Turkey and Portugal seem to beexperiencing growth again aftera sustained period of stability.Sweden continues to grow.

Comparing New Cases Trends Between Countries


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Country Percent of Peak Total Inf per 100 000

Population

Argentina 105

Australia 30

Austria 194

Belarus 629

Belgium 527

Brazil 543

Canada 277

Chile 1 323

China 6

Denmark 221

Egypt 58

Finland 129

France 305

Germany 230

Greece 32

Iceland 538

India 33

Iran 253

Ireland 520

Israel 253

Italy 394

Japan 14

Korea, South 24

Mexico 150

Netherlands 292

New Zealand 32

Norway 163

Poland 86

Portugal 389

Russia 411

South Africa 181

Spain 528

Sweden 606

Switzerland 365

Turkey 228

United Kingdom 456

USA 713

160 Days from first 100 cases

This analysis is intended to assess the effectiveness of lock-downs.

Epidemic period is defined as the period between the first 100 cases and the point at which new confirmed casesdrop to below 50% of the maximum new confirmed cases (using a 5 day moving average to ameliorate inter-dayvariability). Quadrants are determined by the median of the epidemic duration and Infection level.

Countries with stringent, rapidly implemented lock down policies have both low levels of confirmed infections as wellas shorter durations (Clamp down), or have longer durations with low levels of confirmed infections (Slow burn).

Clamp down countries generally have confirmed infections between one third and one tenth of other countries.

Characteristic Comparisons Between Countries


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South African Regional Distribution Cases

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South African Regional Distribution Cases


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South African Regional Distribution Confirmed Cases and Deaths


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South African Cumulative and Daily Deaths


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South Africa shows highest daily death level


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Extrapolation of Previous Infection Trends to Month End

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Gauteng shows significant positive deviation from May

trend

Western Cape shows negative deviation from

May trend

Kwazulu-Natal shows significant positive deviation

from May trend

South African Age andGender Distribution of Deaths


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South AfricaBy Province

Confirmed Cases


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Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South Africa By ProvinceDaily Growth Rates


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Gauteng shows dominance in new cases for 7 consecutive days.

Eastern Cape surpasses Western Cape.



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Gauteng has overtaken Western Cape in new cases



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SA doubling time has increased to 15 days due to increase in Western Cape

doubling time

Coronavirus Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South AfricaBy ProvinceRecoveries


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South AfricaBy Province

Deaths


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South AfricaBy ProvinceDaily Deaths


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Western Cape deaths show substantial decline

Provincial Confirmed Cases and Deaths per 100 000 population


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Time Series Trend for South AfricaTesting


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Copyright BizAnalytiq Consulting 2020

Data Sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY as supplied by Johns Hopkins CSSESouth African Regional, Sex and Age distribution and Epidemic Curve supplied by NICD.Country Population size data is as per Wikipedia sourced in turn from multiple sources.South African Provincial population data as per Stats SA.

This information reflects that distributed by the data providers, and cannot be used as medical advice.

BizAnalytiq assumes no responsibility for quality of data provided by data sources, and cannot be held liable for any decisions taken or consequences arising form using the information in this report.

Produced By BizAnalytic Consulting (PTY) LtdSouth [email protected]


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Coronavirus Covid-19 Daily Data Summary€¦ · BizAnalytiq Consulting _____ 9 Current Maximum...

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