Coronavirus Business Survey May 2020 · The Isle of Man Business Survey was a snap shot survey...

1

Coronavirus

Business Survey

May 2020

Cabinet Office

Isle of Man Government

August 2020

GD 2020/0046

2

Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................. 4

Figure 1 Respondents by sector .................................................................................. 5

1. Trading Status .......................................................................................................... 6

Figure 2 Age of Business by sector .............................................................................. 6

Figure 3 Current trading status by sector ..................................................................... 7

Figure 4 Of those businesses who have permanently ceased trading, was Coronavirus the

cause ........................................................................................................................ 8

Figure 5 Business Headquarter on the Isle of Man, by sector ......................................... 9

Figure 6 Customer base, by sector ............................................................................. 10

2. Workforce................................................................................................................ 11

Figure 7 Number of employees by sector .................................................................... 11

Figure 8 Is the business's workforce able to meet its demands, by sector ...................... 12

Figure 9 Measures taken to cope with the impact of Coronavirus on workforce .............. 13

Figure 10 Proportion of workforce at normal place of work ........................................... 14

Figure 11 Proportion of workforce working remotely .................................................... 15

Figure 12 Proportion of workforce not working ............................................................ 16

Figure 13 Proportion of workforce claimed under Salary Support Scheme ...................... 17

Figure 14 Proportion of workforce sick or self-isolating ................................................. 18

Figure 15 Proportion of workforce made redundant ..................................................... 19

Figure 16 Proportion of workforce on reduced pay or hours .......................................... 20

Figure 17 Proportion of workforce working normally .................................................... 21

Figure 18 Proportion of redundancies expected to be replaced/rehired in the next month

............................................................................................................................... 22

Figure 19 Redundancies expected in the next month (assuming pre-coronavirus trading

conditions) ............................................................................................................... 23

Figure 20 Change in response to Figure 19, if support was made available .................... 24

Figure 21 Expected redundancies in the next three months (assuming pre-coronavirus

trading and existing support ends as announced) ........................................................ 25

Figure 22 Change in response to Figure 21 if support was available .............................. 26

3. Turnover ................................................................................................................. 27

Figure 23 Business turnover over the last three months ............................................... 27

Figure 24 Driving Reason for decrease in turnover ....................................................... 28

Figure 25 Driving reason for increase in turnover......................................................... 29

Figure 26 Factors currently limited business and ability to generate turnover ................. 30

3

Figure 27 Adequacy of stock levels ............................................................................. 31

Figure 28 Expected development of business turnover over the next 3 months compared

to previous three months .......................................................................................... 32

Figure 29 Expected development of prices over the next three months ......................... 33

Figure 30 Expected changes in orders placed with suppliers over the next three months. 34

4. Business Confidence ................................................................................................. 35

Figure 31 Confidence that business has the working capital to continue operating through

the coronavirus outbreak ........................................................................................... 35

Figure 32 Confidence that business has the working capital to return turnover, profits and

employment to pre-coronavirus levels in the coming six months ................................... 36

Figure 33 Expectation that the business will survive, assuming support ends as announced

............................................................................................................................... 37

Figure 34 Likelihood of survival with Government support (for those that answered No, in

Figure 33) ................................................................................................................ 38

Figure 35 Length of time for business to return to pre-coronavirus activity and volumes . 39

Figure 36 Size of the workforce upon recommencement of pre-coronavirus trading activity

............................................................................................................................... 40

Figure 37 Impact of border closure on ability to generate turnover ............................... 41

5. Government Schemes ............................................................................................... 42

Figure 38 Change in ability to access working capital in the last three months ............... 42

Figure 39 Qualification for any Government financial support measures ......................... 43

Figure 40 Applied for at least one financial support scheme .......................................... 44

Figure 41 Financial support schemes applied for and received ...................................... 45

Figure 42 Financial support schemes intend to apply for .............................................. 46

6. Insurance ................................................................................................................ 47

Figure 43 Active insurance policy with business interruption clause ............................... 47

Figure 44 Confirmation that business interruption caused by coronavirus is covered (where

yes to Figure 43) ...................................................................................................... 48

Figure 45 Receipt of insurance settlement ................................................................... 49

4

Introduction

The Isle of Man Business Survey was a snap shot survey conducted from 25 May to

28 May 2020 into the impact of Coronavirus on businesses on the Isle of Man,

investigating how they have responded to the impact of the virus globally, the

measures taken on the Isle of Man by the Isle of Man Government, and other

businesses that they may interact with.

The survey was conducted by Economic Affairs on behalf of a consultant, who

undertook the analysis which is presented in this report.

Business surveys provide essential information for economic monitoring, short-term

forecasting and economic research.

The survey was distributed to all companies who were registered with Online Services

and it was optional for them to complete.

Whilst each respondent was weighted according to the proportion of employees it

represented in relation to the total number of employees in the economy, because

the survey was effectively distributed to all businesses, there will be an element of

self-selection bias. Therefore whilst there was a significant response rate across

nearly all sectors, the results presented in this report cannot necessarily be assumed

to be a representation of all Isle of Man individuals.

The outcomes of this survey will be used by the Isle of Man Government to help

inform the next stages of any further support that may be required and to assist in

enabling the economic recovery of the Island from the consequences of Coronavirus.

5

Figure 1 Respondents by sector

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Banking

Catering and Entertainment

Construction

Corporate Service Provider

Education

Egaming

Engineering

Finance and other business services

ICT

Insurance

Legal and Accountancy Services

Manufacturing: Food & Drink

Manufacturing: General

Medical and Health Services

Mining & Quarrying

Miscelaneous Services

Other Professional Services

Retail Distribution

Tourist Accommodation

Transport and Communication

Utilities

Wholesale Distribution

6

1. Trading Status

Figure 2 Age of Business by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Less than 12 months 1-3 years 3-5 years 5-10 years Greater than 10 years

7

Figure 3 Current trading status by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Continuing to trade Has temporarily closed or paused trading Has permanently ceased trading

8

Figure 4 Of those businesses who have permanently ceased trading, was Coronavirus the cause

0 1 2 3 4


Finance and other Business Services

Information and Communication Technology

Miscellaneous Services


Yes No

9

Figure 5 Business Headquarter on the Isle of Man, by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Yes

10

Figure 6 Customer base, by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Predominantly local customers (domestic economy) Mixture of both local and international customers

Predominantly international customers Not sure

11

2. Workforce

Figure 7 Number of employees by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Self Emp 1 to 9 10-100 101 to 250 More than 250

12

Figure 8 Is the business's workforce able to meet its demands, by sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Yes No Not sure

13

Figure 9 Measures taken to cope with the impact of Coronavirus on workforce

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Asked staff to work from home

Decreased normal working hours

Temporary closure of business

Allowed staff to work flexible hours to meet childcare requirements

Allowed staff to work flexible hours to meet home schooling needs

Allowed staff to work flexible hours to meeting other caring needs

Laying off staff in the short term

Asked employees to take paid leave

No measures taken

Other

Increased normal working hours

Laying off staff permanently

Asked employees to take unpaid leave

Recruiting staff for the short term

Recruiting staff permanently

Permanent closure of the business

14

Figure 10 Proportion of workforce at normal place of work

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Less than 10% 11 to 25% 26 to 49% 50 to 74% Greater than 75%

15

Figure 11 Proportion of workforce working remotely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



16

Figure 12 Proportion of workforce not working

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



17

Figure 13 Proportion of workforce claimed under Salary Support Scheme

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



18

Figure 14 Proportion of workforce sick or self-isolating

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



19

Figure 15 Proportion of workforce made redundant

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



20

Figure 16 Proportion of workforce on reduced pay or hours

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



21

Figure 17 Proportion of workforce working normally

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities



22

Figure 18 Proportion of redundancies expected to be replaced/rehired in the next month

0 20 40 60 80 100 120


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Greater than 75% 50-74% 26-49% 11-25% Less than 10% None No redundancies made

23

Figure 19 Redundancies expected in the next month (assuming pre-coronavirus trading conditions)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


None Less than 10% 11-25% 26-49% 50-74% Greater than 75%

24

Figure 20 Change in response to Figure 19, if support was made available

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35


Banking


Construction


Education

Engineering


ICT

Insurance






Retail Distribution



Utilities


Very likely Fairly likely No change Not likely Not likely at all

25

Figure 21 Expected redundancies in the next three months (assuming pre-coronavirus trading and existing

support ends as announced)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


None Less than 10% 11-25% 26-49% 50-74% Greater than 75%

26

Figure 22 Change in response to Figure 21 if support was available

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40


Banking


Construction


Education

Engineering


ICT

Insurance







Retail Distribution




Very likely Fairly likely No change Not likely Not likely at all

27

3. Turnover

Figure 23 Business turnover over the last three months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Decreased by more than 50% Decreased between 20% and 50% Decreased by up to 20%

Affected but within normal range Turnover unaffected Increased by up to 20%

Increased between 20% and 50% Increased by more than 50%

28

Figure 24 Driving Reason for decrease in turnover

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Decrease in customer demand

Other

Trading conditions prior to coronavirus

Decrease in employee working hours

Decrease in availability of input supplies

Increase in customer demand

Decrease in number of employees

Increase in availability of input supplies

Increase in the number of employees

29

Figure 25 Driving reason for increase in turnover

0 5 10 15 20 25

Increase in customer demand

Other

Increase in availability of input supplies

Increase in employee working hours

Increase in the number of employees

30

Figure 26 Factors currently limited business and ability to generate turnover

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Insufficient demand

Inability to access customers or customers to access you

Industry closure in the Isle of Man (due to coronavirus)

Inability to access normal working environment

Industry closuyre overseas (due to coronavirus)

None

Financial constraints - low/insufficient cash flow

Other factors

Supply chain restrictions

Financial constraints - creditor issues

Shortage of labour force - due to staff concerns over return to work

Shortage of space and/or equipment

Financial Constraints - unable to access debt due to covenants or restrictions

Shortage of labour force - skills gap

Shortage of labour force - due to illness

31

Figure 27 Adequacy of stock levels

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Too small (below normal) Adequate for trading level Too large (above normal)

32

Figure 28 Expected development of business turnover over the next 3 months compared to previous three months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Temporarily closed and do not expect to reopen in the next 3 months Have temporarily closed but expect to reopen in the next 3 months

Decreased by more than 50% Decreased between 20% and 50%

Decreased by up to 20% Affected but within normal range

Turnover unaffected Increased by up to 20%

Increased between 20% and 50% Increased by more than 50%

Not Sure

33

Figure 29 Expected development of prices over the next three months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Decrease Remain unchanged Increase

34

Figure 30 Expected changes in orders placed with suppliers over the next three months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Decrease Remain unchanged Increase

35

4. Business Confidence

Figure 31 Confidence that business has the working capital to continue operating through the coronavirus

outbreak

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Very unconfident Fairly unconfident Neither confident or unconfident Fairly confident Very confident Don't know

36

Figure 32 Confidence that business has the working capital to return turnover, profits and employment to

pre-coronavirus levels in the coming six months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Not sure Yes

37

Figure 33 Expectation that the business will survive, assuming support ends as announced

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Not sure Yes

38

Figure 34 Likelihood of survival with Government support (for those that answered No, in Figure 33)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9



Construction


ICT



Retail Distribution



Not at all likely Not likely No change Fairly likely Very likely Don’t know

39

Figure 35 Length of time for business to return to pre-coronavirus activity and volumes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Currently trading normally Within the next 3 months Within 3 to 6 months

Within 6 months to a year Greater than a year Never

40

Figure 36 Size of the workforce upon recommencement of pre-coronavirus trading activity

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Smaller The same Larger Not sure

41

Figure 37 Impact of border closure on ability to generate turnover

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Highly negative impact Medium negative impact Low negative impact No impact

Low positive impact Medium positive impact High positive impact

42

5. Government Schemes

Figure 38 Change in ability to access working capital in the last three months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Not sure Yes

43

Figure 39 Qualification for any Government financial support measures

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Not sure Yes

44

Figure 40 Applied for at least one financial support scheme

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70



Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance







Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Yes

45

Figure 41 Financial support schemes applied for and received

Salary support scheme

Coronavirus business support

Tax deferment initiatives

Employers national insurance holiday

Strategic Capacity scheme

Isle of Man Disruption Loan Guarantee Agreement

Business adaption grant

Fisheries industry support scheme

Strategic investment fund

Temporary work permit relaxation

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350











46

Figure 42 Financial support schemes intend to apply for

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400











47

6. Insurance

Figure 43 Active insurance policy with business interruption clause

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


No Yes

48

Figure 44 Confirmation that business interruption caused by coronavirus is covered (where yes to Figure 43)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45


Banking


Construction


Education

Egaming

Engineering


ICT

Insurance





Mining & Quarrying



Retail Distribution



Utilities


Yes No - not covered No - not confirmed with insurer

49

Figure 45 Receipt of insurance settlement

0 1 2 3

Corporate service provider

Education




No Yes

Coronavirus Business Survey May 2020 · The Isle of Man Business Survey was a snap shot survey...

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