Corn Situation and Outlook
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Transcript of Corn Situation and Outlook
Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2006
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2006
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500
1000
1500
2000
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2006
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1000
2000
3000
4000
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7000
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
lio
n b
ush
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 2114 2114 2114
Acres (M. P. A.) 81.7 81.8 81.9
Supply(M. Bu) 13210 13236 13252
Use:
Feed 6000
Food, Seed 2985
Exports 1850
Ending Stocks 2158 2401 2644
Projected Price $1.90 $1.75 $1.60
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 2401 2401 2401Acres (M. P. A.) 79.6 80.6 81.6Yield 127 145 160Supply(M. Bu) 11575 13011 14247 Use:
Feed 6000 Food, Seed 3035 Exports 1900
Ending Stocks 640 2076 3312Projected Price $3.25 $1.80 $1.40
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
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500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
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200
400
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
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1000
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
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n b
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Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 540 540 540
Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.1 57.2 57.3
Supply(M. Bu) 2721 2730 2734
Use:
Food, Seed 988
Feed, Resid 200
Exports 1000
Ending Stocks 503 542 581
Projected Price $3.55 $3.40 $3.25
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 542 542 542Acres (M. A. Planted) 56.1 57.1 58.1Yield 35 42 44Supply(M. Bu) 2341 2725 2860 Use:
Food, Seed 988 Feed, Resid 200 Exports 1000
Ending Stocks 300 537 672Projected Price $4.50 $3.40 $3.00
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
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3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
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100
200
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
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n B
u
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2006
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500
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
Mil
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Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
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Mil
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Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
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Mill
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tric
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Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 256 256 256
Acres (M. P. A.) 72.0 72.1 72.2
Supply(M. Bu) 3319 3346 3384
Use:
Crushing 1720
Exports 910
Seed, Feed 161
Ending Stocks 431 555 680
Projected Price $5.80 $5.50 $5.20
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 555 555 555Acres (M. P. A.) 72.2 73.2 74.2Yield 34 40 42Supply(M. Bu) 2950 3450 3637 Use:
Crushing 1700 Exports 1000 Seed, Feed 160
Ending Stocks 155 590 700Projected Price $7.00 $4.75 $4.25
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2006
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2006
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10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mil
lio
n B
u
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 57.0 57.0 57.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 6.4 6.5 6.6
Supply(M. Bu) 440 451 455
Use:
Food & Seed 55
Exports 170
Feed 150
Ending Stocks 53 76 99
Projected Price $1.85 $1.70 $1.55
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
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nd
Ba
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Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2006
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year
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Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 5.5 5.5 5.5
Acres (M. P. A.) 14.18 14.20 14.22
Supply(MB) 29.1 29.3 29.5
Use:
Domestic 5.9
Exports 16.4
Ending Stocks 6.0 7.0 8.0
Projected Price
Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 7.0 7.0 7.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 13.7 14.2 14.7
Yield 607 750 850
Supply(MB) 22.4 26.8 30.2
Use:
Domestic 6.0
Exports 16.4
Ending Stocks 2.6 4.4 7.8
Projected Price/cwt $70 $60 $50
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather