Corn Outlook. U.S. & Foreign Coarse Grain Production U.S. share of world production: 90-91: 28.1%...
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Transcript of Corn Outlook. U.S. & Foreign Coarse Grain Production U.S. share of world production: 90-91: 28.1%...
Corn Outlook
U.S. & Foreign Coarse Grain Production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
ForeignU.S.
U.S. share of world production: 90-91: 28.1% 08-09: 29.6%
Coarse Grain Production (mmt)
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
U.S.A 280.00 349.86 326.09
China 159.10 159.49 173.10
EU-27 137.44 136.52 160.12
Brazil 53.18 61.34 52.21
Argentina
27.54 25.79 19.97
Mexico 29.14 29.73 32.18
Canada 23.15 27.82 27.19
U.S. Corn Acres Planted, 1970-08
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
9570 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
Mill
ion
Acr
es P
lant
ed
2008 was 2nd largest since 1949
U.S. Corn Acres Planted, 1926-08
55
65
75
85
95
105
11519
26
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Million Acres Planted by Crop
2006
2007 Change
Corn 78.327 93.600 + 15.273
Soybeans 75.522 64.736 - 10.786
Wheat 57.344 60.433 + 3.089
Cotton 15.274 10.827 - 4.447
Sorghum 6.522 7.718 + 1.196
Oats 4.168 3.760 - 0.408
Barley 3.452 4.020
+ 0.568
18 crops 255.398 259.428
+ 4.030
Million Acres Planted by Crop
2007
2008 Change
Corn 93.600
85.889
- 7.711
Soybeans 64.736
75.878
+11.142
Wheat 60.433
63.047
+ 2.614
Cotton 10.827
9.414 - 1.413
Sorghum 7.718
8.327 + 0.609
Oats 3.760
3.217 - 0.340
Barley 4.020
4.234
+ 0.214
18 crops 259.428
264.740 + 5.312
U.S. Soybean/Corn Price Ratio, 1975-09
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
475
-76
77-
78
79-
80
81-
82
83-
84
85-8
6
87-
88
89-
90
91-
92
93-
94
95-
96
97-
98
99-
00
01-
02
03-
04
05-
06
07-
08
U.S. Average Corn Yield, 1970-08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
18070
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
Bush
els
Yield is increasing by 2 bu/year
U.S. Corn Production, 1970-08
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1470 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
U.S. Corn Price, 1970-09
0.00.51.0
1.52.02.53.0
3.54.04.5
70-7
1
72-7
3
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
US Feed & Residual Use of Corn,
1975-09
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
774
-75
76-7
7
78-
79
80-8
1
82-
83
84-
85
86-
87
88-
89
90-9
1
92-
93
94-
95
96-
97
98-
99
00-
01
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
U.S. Corn Exports, 1975-09
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.575
-76
77-7
8
79-8
0
81-8
2
83-8
4
85-8
6
87-8
8
89-9
0
91-9
2
93-9
4
95-9
6
97-9
8
99-0
0
01-0
2
03-0
4
05-0
6
07-0
8
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
Corn Exports as % Production, 1975-09
05
101520253035404550
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-
79
80-8
1
82-
83
84-
85
86-
87
88-
89
90-9
1
92-
93
94-
95
96-
97
98-
99
00-
01
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
Per
cent
Corn Disappearance & StocksCrop Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1619
78
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Bil. Bushels
Stocks
Exports
Food, Seed& Industrial
Feed &Residual
Corn Milled for Ethanol
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.090
-91
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Billi
on B
ushe
ls
Forecast
% corn for ethanol:2000-01: 6%2005-06: 14%2006-07: 20%2007-08: 23%2008-09: 30%
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks & PriceCrop Year
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
4.55
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Bil. Bushels
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50$ Per Bushel
Stocks
Price
Corn Supply and Use – February 2009 revision
Projected 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Planted area (mil. ac.) 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 Harvested area (mil. ac.) 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 Yield (bu./ac.) 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 Beginning stocks (mil.bu.) 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 Production 11,114 10,531 13,038 12,101 Imports 9 12 20 15 Total supply 13,237 12,510 14,362 13,740 Feed 6,155 5,591 5,938 5,300 Ethanol 1,603 2,119 3,026 3,600 Food, seed, other 1,378 1,371 1,337 1,300 Exports 2,134 2,125 2,436 1,750 Total use 11,270 11,207 12,737 11,950 Ending stocks 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,790 Stocks/use ratio 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 15.0%
On 2/19/09 Mar 09 corn settled at $3.53
Structure of Gov’t Paymentsfor Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Wheat, Cotton,
Rice, Soybean, Sunflowers, Canola, Peanuts
Target Price
Fixed Payment
Loan RateCounter-CyclicalPayment
Loan DeficiencyPayment
NotTiedTo
Prod
ProdReq.
Trigger Price
Farm Bill Payments for Corn
$0.28 times 85% of base production $2.35 trigger price on 85% of base $1.95 loan rate on actual bushels
U.S. Monthly Average Corn Price
1.40
1.90
2.40
2.90
3.40
3.90
4.40
4.90
5.40
5.90
Jan-
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Monthly Average Corn Price
1.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.005.506.00
Jan-
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
Corn futures
March 09 Corn Futures
Nearby Corn Futures
Soybean Outlook
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Production
0
50
100
150
200
25090
-91
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
ForeignU.S.
U.S. share of world production: 90-91 50.3% 08-09 35.9%
Soybean Production (mmt)
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
U.S.A 87.00 72.86 80.54
Brazil 59.00 61.00 57.00
Argentina 48.80 46.20 43.80
China 15.97 14.00 16.80
EU-27 1.23 0.73 0.75
Japan 0.23 0.23 0.23
Mexico 0.08 0.08 0.16
U.S. Soybean Acres Planted, 1970-08
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
8070 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
Mill
ion
Acr
es P
lant
ed
U.S. Average Soybean Yield, 1970-08
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4570
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
Bush
els
Yield is increasing by 0.45 bu/year
U.S. Soybean Production, 1970-08
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.570 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
U.S. Soybean Exports, 1975-09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
75-7
6
77-7
8
79-8
0
81-8
2
83-8
4
85-8
6
87-8
8
89-9
0
91-9
2
93-9
4
95-9
6
97-9
8
99-0
0
01-0
2
03-0
4
05-0
6
07-0
8
Mill
ion B
ush
els
U.S. Soybean Price, 1970-09
0
2
4
6
8
10
1270
-71
72-7
3
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use – Feb. 2009 revision
Projected 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Planted area (mil. ac.) 72.0 75.5 64.7 75.7 Harvested area (mil. ac.) 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.6 Yield (bu./ac.) 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.6 Beginning stocks(mil bu) 256 449 574 205 Production 3,063 3,197 2,677 2,959 Imports 3 9 10 9 Total supply 3,322 3,655 3,261 3,173 Crush 1,739 1,808 1,801 1,650 Seed, residual 194 157 93 163 Total domestic use 1,933 1,965 1,895 1,813 Exports 940 1,116 1,161 1,150 Total use 2,873 3,081 3,056 2,963 Ending stocks 449 574 205 210 Stocks/use ratio 15.6% 18.6% 6.7% 7.1% Farm price $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.25 Loan rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00
On 2/19/09 Mar 09 beans settled at $8.84
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Bil. Bushels
1.50
2.50
3.50
4.50
5.50
6.50
7.50
8.50
9.50
10.50
11.50
$ Per Bushel
Stocks
Price
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks & PriceCrop Year
U.S. Monthly Average Soybean Price
456789
1011121314
Jan-0
0
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Monthly Average Soybean Price
456789
1011121314
Jan-0
0
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bush
el
Cash Futures
March 09 Soybean Futures
Nearby Soybean Futures
Farm Bill Payments for Soy
$0.44 times 78% of base production
$5.36 trigger price on 85% of base
$5.00 loan rate on actual bushels
U.S. Average Farm Price
2.26
3.242.71 2.43
1.94 1.82 1.85 1.972.32 2.42
2.06 2
3.04
4.2 3.9
5.48
6.727.35
6.47
4.93 4.63 4.54 4.38
5.53
7.34
5.74 5.66
6.43
10.1
9.25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
Marketing Year Beginning on Sept 1
$ Pe
r Bu
shel
Corn Soybeans
Asian Soybean Rust
http://www.sbrusa.net/
Wheat Outlook
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
80090
-91
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-
03
04-
05
06-
07
08-
09
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
ForeignU.S.
U.S. share of world production: 90-91 12.7% 08-09 10.0%
Wheat Production (mmt)
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
U.S.A 49.22 55.82 68.03
EU-27 124.87 119.44 150.27
China 108.47 109.30 113.00
India 69.35 75.81 78.40
Russia 44.90 49.40 63.70
Canada 25.27 20.05 28.61
Australia 10.82 13.84 20.15
U.S. Wheat Acres Planted, 1970-08
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
9070
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
Million A
cres
Pla
nte
d
U.S. Average Wheat Yield, 1970-08
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4570
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Bush
els
Yield is increasing by 0.24 bu/year
U.S. Wheat Production, 1970-08
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.070 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Bill
ion
Bus
hels
U.S. Wheat Exports, 1976-08
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.876-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Billion B
ush
els
U.S. Wheat Price, 1970-09
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.070
-71
72-7
3
74-7
5
76-7
7
78-7
9
80-8
1
82-8
3
84-8
5
86-8
7
88-8
9
90-9
1
92-9
3
94-9
5
96-9
7
98-9
9
00-0
1
02-0
3
04-0
5
06-0
7
08-0
9
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use – February 2009 revision
Projected 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Planted area (mil. ac.) 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.1 Harvested area (mil. ac.) 50.1 46.8 51.0 55.7 Yield (bu./ac.) 42.0 38.6 40.2 44.9 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 540 571 456 306 Production 2,105 1,808 2,051 2,500 Imports 81 122 113 110 Total supply 2,726 2,501 2,620 2,915 Food 915 938 947 950 Seed 78 82 88 80 Feed, residual 160 117 15 230 Total domestic use 1,152 1,137 1,050 1,260 Exports 1,003 908 1,264 1,000 Total use 2,155 2,045 2,314 2,260 Ending stocks 571 456 306 655 Stocks/use ratio 26.5% 22.3% 13.2% 29.0% Farm price $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.80
On 2/19/09 March 09 wheat settled at $5.19
U.S. Monthly Average Wheat Price
2.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.00
Jan-
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel
U.S. Monthly Average Wheat Price
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
Jan-
00
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Dol
lars
Per
Bus
hel Cash Futures
Nearby Wheat Futures
Farm Bill Payments for Wheat
$0.52 times 85% of base production
$3.40 trigger price on 85% of base
$2.75 loan rate on actual bushels
