CoreLogic National Foreclosure Report · Approximately 939,000 homes in the u.s. were in some stage...

With Quarterly ShadoW inventory Supplement

CoreLogic ®

National Foreclosure Report

August 2013

CorelogiC NatioNal ForeClosure reportAugust 2013

© 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. this material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 22

FoReCLosuRes – NatioNaL oveRview august 2013

► seriously Delinquent Mortgages Are at the Lowest Level since November 2008

► Approximately 2.1 Million Residential Mortgages, or 5.3 Percent, Are seriously Delinquent

► shadow Inventory Falls to 1.9 Million Homes for the First time since August 2008

CompLeted FoReCLosuRes

48,000iN august 2013

34%CompaRed to august 2012

1.3%CompaRed to JuLy 2013

An analysis shows 48,000 foreclosures were completed in August 2013, a 34 percent year-over-

year decline from 72,000 in August 2012. By comparison, prior to the decline in the housing

market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between

2000 and 2006. On a month-over-month* basis, completed foreclosures increased 1.3 percent.

Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure.

siNCe the FiNaNCiaL CRisis begaN iN septembeR 2008, appRoximateLy

4.5 miLLioNFoReCLosuRes have beeN CompLeted

“a surge in completed foreclosures and a rise in the foreclosure inventory is unlikely given continued house price improvements and shortages of supply in many markets.”

dr. mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic

*July data was revised. Revisions with public records are standard and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results.



NatioNaL FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy

33%CompaRed to august 2012

3.2%CompaRed to JuLy 2013

Approximately 939,000 homes in the u.s. were in some stage of foreclosure as of August 2013

compared to 1.4 million in August 2012, a decrease of 33 percent. this was the 22nd consecutive

month with a year-over-year decline. As of August 2013, the foreclosure inventory represented

2.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage compared to 3.3 percent in August 2012. the foreclosure

inventory declined 3.2 percent from July 2013 to August 2013.

the FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy iN august was

454,000 homesLoweR thaN a yeaR eaRLieR

“the foreclosure inventory continues to improve, as exhibited by these recent numbers.”

dr. mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic



time seRies – NatioNaL oveRview

the 12-moNth sum oF CompLeted FoReCLosuRes is at the Lowest poiNt siNCe

FebRuaRy 2008, with deCLiNes FoR the past 20 CoNseCutive moNths

sep-12 oCt-12 Nov-12 deC-12 JaN-13 Feb-13 maR-13 apR-13 may-13 JuN-13 JuL-13 aug-13

sdQ 2,779 2,699 2,667 2,634 2,600 2,504 2,418 2,321 2,249 2,214 2,172 2,123

-MOM % Chg in # -1.2% -2.9% -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% -3.7% -3.4% -4.0% -3.1% -1.5% -1.9% -2.2%

-YOY % Chg in # -9.7% -12.4% -13.6% -14.1% -16.3% -16.9% -17.8 -20.3% -21.9% -22.7% -24.0% -24.5%

Foreclosure inventory* 1,349 1,265 1,226 1,216 1,187 1,151 1,142 1,067 1,039 992 970 939

-MOM % Chg in # -3.1% -6.2% -3.1% -0.9% -2.3% -3.1% -0.8% -6.6% -2.6% -4.5% -2.2% -3.2%

-YOY % Chg in # -9.9% -16.1% -16.1% -15.6% -20.1% -22.1% -22.0% -27.4% -28.2% -29.3% -30.9% -32.6%

Completed Foreclosures* 83 68 64 51 57 49 50 52 45 44 47 48

-MOM % Chg in # 15.4% -18.8% -6.1% -19.7% 11.3% -13.9% 1.2% 4.9% -12.7% -2.3% 6.7% 1.4%

-YOY % Chg in # -1.8% -5.3% -12.5% -29.0% -24.6% -27.1% -25.6% -16.5% -36.7% -35.3% -27.1% -33.6%

-12-Month sum* 849 845 836 815 796 778 761 751 725 700 683 658

aug-12 sep-12 oCt-12 Nov-12 deC-12 JaN-13 Feb-13 maR-13 apR-13 may-13 JuN-13 JuL-13

shadow inventory* 2,349 2,326 2,274 2,252 2,219 2,195 2,117 2,044 1,971 1,910 1,885 1,854

-sDQ* 1,038 1,049 1,051 1,057 1,044 1,039 992 929 913 880 892 874

-FCL* 948 919 862 835 828 809 784 778 727 707 676 661

-REO* 363 359 361 360 347 348 341 337 331 323 317 318

months'supply visible 5.9 6.6 5.9 6.0 5.6 6.6 6.8 5.6 5.4 4.8 4.9 4.8

months'supply shadow 5.5 6.6 5.9 6.3 6.3 7.6 7.1 5.5 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.7

-sDQ 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.8

-FCL 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3

-REO 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

mom Change (shadow Counts) -1.6% -1.0% -2.3% -1.0% -1.5% -1.1% -3.6% -3.4% -3.6% -3.1% -1.3% -1.6%

yoy Change (shadow Counts) -8.6% -9.7% -12.4% -13.6% -14.9% -17.2% -16.5% -17.1% -19.0% -20.6% -21.3% -22.3%

Roll Rates (3 Month Moving Avg)

Current to 90 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

90+ to FCL 5.9% 5.1% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 5.3%

FCL to Current 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4%

* thousands of units ** Year-to-DateNote: Current includes loans that are 30 and 60 Days DelinquentNote: 90+ Excludes FCL and REO ; sDQ is 90+ including FCL and REO

the FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy has deCLiNed by doubLe digits yeaR oveR yeaR

FoR 11 CoNseCutive moNths



FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy by state

As of August 2013

source: CoreLogic Market trends

► Five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of mortgaged homes

FLORIDA NEw JERsEY NEw YORk MAINE CONNECtICut

7.9% 6.2% 4.9% 4.0% 3.9%

► Five states with the lowest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of mortgaged homes

wYOMINg ALAskA NORtH DAkOtA NEBRAskA COLORADO

0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

► the FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy is LoweR thaN the NatioNaL Rate oF 2.4 peRCeNt iN 35 states

<1%

1% - 2%

2% - 3%

3% - 4%

>4%



state highLights

► Five states with the highest number of completed foreclosures during past 12 months

FLORIDA MICHIgAN CALIFORNIA tExAs gEORgIA

111,000 60,000 58,000 43,000 40,000

► Five states with the lowest number of completed foreclosures during past 12 months

D.C. NORtH DAkOtA HAwAII wEst VIRgINIA wYOMINg

94 463 492 501 723

► percent of homes in foreclosure

source: CoreLogic August 2013

FLoRida, miChigaN, CaLiFoRNia, texas aNd geoRgia aCCouNt FoR aLmost haLF oF

aLL u.s. CompLeted FoReCLosuRes

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

FLNJNYMECTNVHI

MDIL

DEPANMORSCRI

OHINVTDCOKWAIDKYLAIA

MAMSGAARNCWIALKSUTTXNHTNMI

WVCAAZMOMNSDVAMTCONENDAKWY

Judicial

Non-Jud

icial

5.97x5.88Layout>axes>prim

ary horizontal axis>show right to left

axis8.5pt and 5.5pt

JudiCiaL

NoN-JudiCiaL



state FoReCLosuRe data – JudiCiaL states

JudiCiaL states FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy

FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy pCt. poiNt ChaNge

FRom a yeaR ago


(12 moNths eNdiNg

august 2013)

seRious deLiNQueNCy

Florida 7.9% -3.6% 111,005 12.4%

Illinois 3.3% -2.0% 31,054 7.1%

Ohio 2.4% -1.0% 27,909 5.6%

Indiana 2.3% -1.1% 17,510 5.2%

Pennsylvania 2.7% -0.5% 13,578 5.6%

Oklahoma 2.1% -0.7% 11,347 4.7%

south Carolina 2.5% -0.9% 9,566 5.0%

Louisiana 1.8% -0.6% 5,959 5.1%

Maryland 3.5% -0.9% 4,474 7.3%

Iowa 1.7% -0.5% 4,374 3.3%

New Jersey 6.2% -0.9% 3,996 10.8%

Connecticut 3.9% -0.7% 3,861 6.9%

kansas 1.2% -0.5% 3,690 3.5%

New York 4.9% -0.4% 3,670 8.0%

Massachusetts 1.7% -0.4% 2,971 4.9%

New Mexico 2.7% -0.8% 2,620 4.9%

kentucky 1.8% -0.8% 2,121 4.6%

Nebraska 0.7% -0.2% 1,723 2.3%

Delaware 2.8% 0.0% 1,491 6.3%

Maine 4.0% -0.4% 762 6.8%

Hawaii 3.6% -0.7% 492 5.5%

North Dakota 0.7% -0.1% 463 1.2%

south Dakota 0.8% -0.3% N/A 2.0%

Vermont 2.2% -0.4% N/A 3.9%


NatioNaL

Foreclosure Inventory: 2.4%

Foreclosure Inventory Pct. Point Change from a Year Ago: -1.0%

Completed Foreclosures (12 months ending August 2013): 658,463

serious Delinquency: 5.3%

Year-Over-Year Decline in seriously Delinquent Mortgages: 25%



state FoReCLosuRe data – NoN-JudiCiaL states

NoN-JudiCiaL

statesFoReCLosuRe

iNveNtoRy

FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy pCt. poiNt ChaNge

FRom a yeaR ago


(12 moNths eNdiNg

august 2013)

seRious deLiNQueNCy

Michigan 1.0% -0.7% 59,535 4.0%

California 1.0% -1.2% 58,068 3.3%

texas 1.1% -0.3% 42,522 3.5%

georgia 1.6% -0.7% 39,827 5.3%

North Carolina 1.4% -0.9% 26,577 4.4%

Arizona 0.9% -1.1% 25,911 2.9%

tennessee 1.1% -0.6% 19,876 4.8%

washington 1.9% -0.4% 19,839 5.1%

Missouri 0.9% -0.4% 14,147 3.5%

Colorado 0.7% -0.6% 12,874 2.4%

Virginia 0.8% -0.6% 12,824 3.2%

Minnesota 0.8% -0.6% 11,071 2.9%

Nevada 3.7% -1.2% 10,229 8.6%

wisconsin 1.2% -0.8% 9,413 3.3%

Alabama 1.2% -0.3% 6,857 5.0%

Arkansas 1.5% -0.1% 5,228 5.3%

Idaho 1.8% -0.7% 3,906 3.7%

utah 1.1% -0.3% 3,698 3.4%

Oregon 2.6% -0.6% 3,206 4.7%

New Hampshire 1.1% -0.5% 2,099 3.5%

Rhode Island 2.4% -0.8% 1,592 6.8%

Mississippi 1.6% -0.7% 1,169 6.1%

Montana 0.8% -0.5% 1,122 2.1%

Alaska 0.6% -0.1% 840 1.8%

wyoming 0.4% -0.1% 723 1.8%

west Virginia 1.0% -0.4% 501 3.3%

District of Columbia 2.1% -0.3% 94 5.1%


NatioNaL

Foreclosure Inventory: 2.4%

Foreclosure Inventory Pct. Point Change from a Year Ago: -1.0%

Completed Foreclosures (12 months ending August 2013): 658,463

serious Delinquency: 5.3%

Year-Over-Year Decline in seriously Delinquent Mortgages: 25%



metRopoLitaN aRea highLightsFORECLOsuRE DAtA FOR tHE LARgEst CORE BAsED stAtIstICAL AREAs (CBsAs)

metRopoLitaN aRea FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy

FoReCLosuRe iNveNtoRy pCt. poiNt

ChaNge FRom a yeaR ago


(12 moNths eNdiNg

august 2013)

seRious deLiNQueNCy

Atlanta-sandy springs-Marietta, gA 1.7% -0.8% 24,815 5.5%

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 3.9% -2.3% 19,981 8.2%

Phoenix-Mesa-glendale, AZ 0.8% -1.3% 16,130 2.7%

tampa-st. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 8.7% -3.1% 15,626 13.0%

Riverside-san Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1.4% -1.7% 12,027 4.9%

Orlando-kissimmee-sanford, FL 7.9% -3.8% 11,483 12.4%

Houston-sugar Land-Baytown, tx 1.1% -0.4% 11,409 3.5%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-glendale, CA 1.1% -1.1% 9,639 3.7%

Minneapolis-st. Paul-Bloomington, MN-wI 0.9% -0.7% 9,107 2.9%

st. Louis, MO-IL 1.0% -0.5% 9,012 3.8%

warren-troy-Farmington Hills, MI 0.9% -0.8% 8,008 3.3%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, tx 1.2% -0.3% 7,594 3.7%

seattle-Bellevue-Everett, wA 1.7% -0.6% 7,127 4.5%

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 0.7% -0.6% 5,754 2.3%

sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 0.9% -1.3% 5,393 3.3%




QuaRteRLy shadow iNveNtoRy suppLemeNt — NatioNaL oveRview thRough JuLy 2013

► the Value of shadow Inventory Is $293 Billion, Down from the Previous Year’s

$380 Billion

► shadow Inventory Declines Year Over Year by Double Digits for 10 Consecutive Months

► Five states—Florida, California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey—Account for

43 Percent of the Nation’s Distressed Properties

shadow iNveNtoRy highLights

5.9%iN the QuaRteR

1.9miLLioN homes

22%CompaRed to JuLy 2012

shadow inventory, also called pending supply, decreased 22 percent from 2.4 million homes in

July 2012 to 1.9 million in July 2013. Current residential shadow inventory represents a supply of

3.7 months compared to the previous year’s supply of 6.0 months. shadow inventory is down

38 percent from its peak in January 2010 when it reached 3 million homes.

shadow inventory includes properties that are more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure and

held as real estate owned (REO) by mortgage servicers, but not currently on multiple listing

services. transition rates of “delinquency to foreclosure” and “foreclosure to REO” are used to

identify unlisted distressed properties most likely to become REO. Properties not yet delinquent but

that may become delinquent in the future, are not included in the pending supply estimate. shadow

inventory is not typically included in the official reporting measurements of unsold inventory.

aLmost haLF the homes iN the shadow iNveNtoRy, whiCh has FaLLeN beLow 2 miLLioN homes, aRe deLiNQueNt but Not yet FoReCLosed.

“over the past year, the value of the u.s. shadow inventory dropped by $87 billion—

a sign of increased normalcy in the housing market. with a year-over-year

decrease of 22 percent in July, shadow inventory has now declined steadily for

10 consecutive months.” anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic

NOtE: Previous data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.



shadow iNveNtoRy detaiL

FoR the yeaR eNdiNg JuLy 2013, shadow iNveNtoRy deCLiNed at aN aveRage moNthLy Rate oF 44,000 homes

► Figure 1. shadow inventory detailIn thousands, Not seasonally Adjusted

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-

06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-

11Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-

12Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-

13Apr-13

Jul-13

FIG 1Shadow inventory detail / july 2013

source: CoreLogic July 2013

► Figure 2. months’ supply shadow inventory detailNumber of Months, Not seasonally Adjusted

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-

06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-

11Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-

12Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

FIG 2Months’ supply shadow inventory detail / jul 2013

source: CoreLogic July 2013

serious Delinquency shadow Inventory

FCL shadow Inventory

REO shadow Inventory

serious Delinquency shadow Inventory

FCL shadow Inventory

REO shadow Inventory



CoReLogiC NatioNaL FoReCLosuRe RepoRt methodoLogy

the data in this report represent foreclosure activity reported through August 2013.

this report separates state data into judicial vs. non-judicial foreclosure state categories. In judicial foreclosure states, lenders must provide evidence to the courts of delinquency in order to move a borrower into foreclosure. In non-judicial foreclosure states, lenders can issue notices of default directly to the borrower without court intervention. this is an important distinction since judicial states, as a rule, have longer foreclosure timelines, thus affecting foreclosure statistics.

A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in the purchase of the home at auction by either a third party, such as an investor, or by the lender. If the home is purchased by the lender, it is moved into the lender’s real estate owned (REO) inventory. In “foreclosure by advertisement” states, a redemption period begins after the auction and runs for a statutory period, e.g., six months. During that period, the borrower may regain the foreclosed home by paying all amounts due as calculated under the statute. For purposes of this report, because so few homes are actually redeemed following an auction, it is assumed that the foreclosure process ends in “foreclosure by advertisement” states at the completion of the auction.

the foreclosure inventory represents the number and share of mortgaged homes that have been placed into the process of foreclosure by the mortgage servicer. Mortgage servicers start the foreclosure process when the mortgage reaches a specific level of serious delinquency as dictated by the investor for the mortgage loan. Once a foreclosure is “started,” and absent the borrower paying all amounts necessary to halt the foreclosure, the home remains in foreclosure until the completed foreclosure results in the sale to a third party at auction or the home enters the lender’s REO inventory. the data in this report account for only first liens against a property and do not include secondary liens. the foreclosure inventory is measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes with no mortgage liens can never be in foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of u.s. foreclosure data.

shadow iNveNtoRy RepoRtiNg

CoreLogic uses its Loan Performance servicing and securities databases to size the number of 90+ day delinquencies, foreclosures and real estate owned (REO) properties. Cure rates, which measure the proportion of loans in one stage of default that cured (versus moving to more severe states of default), are applied to the number of loans in default at each stage of default. CoreLogic calculates the share of loans in default that are currently listed on MLs by matching public record properties in default to MLs active listings. It applies the percentage of defaulted loans that are currently listed to the estimate of outstanding loans that will proceed to further stages of default to calculate the pending supply inventory and adds that to the reported visible inventory. Visible inventory is compiled from CoreLogic Listingtrends. to determine months’ supply for visible

and shadow inventories, CoreLogic uses the number of non-seasonally adjusted home sales according to CoreLogic data.

souRCe: CoReLogiC

the data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. this data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. the data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

about CoReLogiC

CoreLogic (NYsE: CLgx) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the united states and Australia. the company’s combined data from public, contributory, and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. the markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOgIC, the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

CoNtaCt

For more information, please email [email protected].

17-NFR-1013-02

CoreLogic National Foreclosure Report · Approximately 939,000 homes in the u.s. were in some stage...

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