Copyright Gordon Bell Beyond Moores Law (and the web): Whats next? Nets Everywhere gbell/pubs.htm...

Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell

Beyond Moore’s Law (and the web):What’s next?

Nets Everywherehttp://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm

Gordon Bell

Bay Area Research Center

Microsoft Corporation

http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/pubs.htm


Outline… pervasive computing from in body to world scale

Technology basis On, in, and around body… Mobility: essential for people, phone build out Storing everything you’ve ever… Home, personal, and media stores Scalable systems: what is central vs personal? .net: what does it mean?

– Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure, transaction & streaming apps

– .bCentral… creating on-line presence


Some ranked, important technology

Fortune Bluetooth Voice control of xx XML Peer-to-peer as in

Napster or Gnutella

Network Computing 802.11b Bluetooth Broadband Directory Services Voice over IP IPv6 Wave Div. Multiplex SAN & Fiber Chan. ASP QOS


Technologies


Moore’s Law

Performance/Price doubles every 18 months

100x per decade Progress in next 18 months

= ALL previous progress– New storage = sum of all past storage– New processing = sum of past processing.

E. coli double ever 20 minutes!

15 years ago


Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps

2x 1GbE3x 1GbE

G8 Sonet

SC99NOCGigaPop

Juniper M40Cisco 12008

WestinGigaPop

Juniper M40

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Cisco 1800

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Juniper M40 NCSAUW

University of Washington Microsoft

Nortel NetworksNTON

SC99 @ Portland

1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps

HDTV streams= 1 Gbps

OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8

2x 1GbE3x 1GbE

G8 Sonet

SC99NOCGigaPop

Juniper M40Cisco 12008

WestinGigaPop

Juniper M40

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Cisco 1800

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Juniper M40 NCSAUW

University of Washington Microsoft

Nortel NetworksNTON

SC99 @ Portland

1 Gbps1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps

HDTV streams= 1 Gbps

OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8

http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/papers/Win2K_1Gbps.doc


500 mips System On A Chip for 10$

486 now 7$ 233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chiphttp://www.cirrus.com/news/products99/news-product14.html AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$

In 5 years, today’s leading edge will be– System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr,

multiple IO)– Low cost– Low-power – Have integrated IO

High end is 5 BIPS cpus


1 GBps1 GBps

Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years

1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.– Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,

ServerNet,, ATM,…

10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192)

– 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x,

progress is astonishing Gilder’s law:

Bandwidth grows 3x/year http://www.forbes.com/asap/97/0407/090.htm

5 MBps20 Mbsp

40 MBps

80 MBps

120 MBps120 MBps(1Gbps)(1Gbps)

Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

MiniMini

TimeTime

Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)

PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo

g p

rice

Lo

g p

rice

WSsWSs

Handheld…Handheld…AppliancesAppliances


Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?

How do they communicate?

Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers!by a hierarchy of computers!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets


DataData

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

TelephonyTelephony

TelevisionTelevision

Or will we just have gateways?

In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers

– processing 10-100x– 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper– Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays– low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use

adequate networking????– ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs– Competitive wireless networking

One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.

Several well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home

Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.


IP On Everything


In body, on body, and around body… how do they evolve?


Your husband just died, … here’s his black box


MedronIc


Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB


1976: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size


Casio GPS Watch


Steve ManninCyberspaceMIT c1995


Wearable PCc2000


The mobile network: key to personal use


Wirelessness and mobility… MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters

(bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber) The crowded 2.4 GHz band

– Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers– 802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading– HomeRF (Intel’s misguided effort at a home LAN) – Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000 companies be

wrong?– 802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD)

GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services…– Bets as the next Internet wave


Sony Personal IT Television

•10” Touch screen

•802.11b connect

•TV

•Internet connect

•Picture frame

•32cm x 20cm

•1.5 Kg

Copyright Gordon BellCopyright Gordon Bell0

0.2

0.4

0.8

2.0

199719981999200020012002

Circuit data<9.6kbps

HSCSD57.6kbps

GPRS115kbps

EDGE384kbps

UMTS2Mbps

0.1

The evolution of wireless data standards… good news.

Bad news… too many,they lie!


GPRS Evolution


Internet Industry (circa 1999)Courtesy of Sheridan Forbes

TransportTransportNetwork Hardware/ProtocolsNetwork Hardware/Protocols

Computers & Operating Layer SoftwareComputers & Operating Layer SoftwareApplications & MiddlewareApplications & Middleware

Info

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Internet Services$170B*

Infrastructure$171B*

AccessAccessPersonal/Employee DataPersonal/Employee Data

Go

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Content SyndicatorsContent SyndicatorsContent Syndication

$2B+ **

Web HostingWeb Hosting


Voice to WEBVoice to WEBBridgeBridge

Web ServerWeb Server

TheTheWebWeb

DataBaseDataBase

PSTNPSTN

The Next ConvergencePOTS connects to the Weba.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways


Cyber All: using on body computers to record and recall it all


Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen

Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P


Character of Cyber All UseUser

Context / Use(t)

Personal (ambiance,

entertainment, finance, etc.)

Professional (work related)

Archival (historical reference)

Documents, photos and photo albums, music, video memory-aid, entertainment, medical history, progeny

Books, papers, reference documents memory-aid and reference

Working (daily use)

Documents, email, photos, CDs, video communication, ambiance, entertainment, financial records

Documents, emailcontent for profession use to communication


My MbytesWhat Files MbytesArchival and working files 4708 729Scanned files with Tiff and PDF 2897 4665GB books (4 encoded) 2027 494Photos Digital 997 158Photos albums, pictures, slides 1430 960Mail 8 236GB Videos (lectures, 8mm) 20 4000CDs stored as mp3 16KBps 150 8640

12237 19882


Home Networks

Home IP networkHome IP network

CATVDist

Rec/AMP

CCCC.srv

Monitor

TVsetHDTV

Tuner

CATV Network

Servers:•Hold & deliver audio, photos, video•Encode TV content

Computers:•Control, get content from web, servers

Monitors: HDTV

TV-sets: receive encoded & CATV content

DSL, etc. input

broadcast


PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels

Gordon BellJim Gemmell

Bay Area Research CenterMicrosoft Research

Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

When will we have smart rooms? Life-sized displays for interaction

- and for being anywhere! Cameras that recognize people Mics and Speech based interface Total surround sound One IP net vs. four (data/a/v/phone) Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television

networks

Interval Research developed a technology to track individuals in stores!


Scalable Systems:

What is central, distributed (scaled) at a central site, or personal?

Scalaing beyond a single facility?


High Performance Computing


0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t)

Petaflops study target

NEC

XMP NCube

CM2

*IBM


Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer(converging switching, computing, and storing?) Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to

10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2 - 40 tera-ops


Interesting “cluster” in a cabinet

366 servers per 44U cabinet– Single processor– 2 - 30 GB/computer (24 TBytes)– 2 - 100 Mbps Ethernets

~10x perf*, power, disk, I/O per cabinet ~3x price/perf Network services… Linux based

*42, 2 processors, 84 Ethernet, 3 TBytes


GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster


Top 10 tpc-c

Top two Compaq systems are:Top two Compaq systems are:1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;1/3 price of IBM1/3 price of IBM1/5 price of SUN1/5 price of SUN


Clusters, the Grid, Napster, and Gnutela: going beyond Clusters allow build your own system of any size The Grid has provided facilities, like .NET for

computers to communicate, and share resources (programs & data).

Seti@home: – Scan 30% of the Northern sky every 6 mos. – Get 50 GB/day– 2 million computers– 15 tera-flops– 417 exa-flops delivered over


The Grid GRID was/is an exciting concept …

– They can/must work within a community, organization, or project. What binds it?

– “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Taxonomy… interesting vs necessity

– Cycle scavenging and object evaluation (e.g. seti@home, QCD, factoring)

– File distribution/sharing aka IP theft (e.g. Napster, Gnutella)

– Databases &/or programs and experiments(astronomy, genome, NCAR, CERN)

– Workbenches: web workflow chem, bio…– Single, large problem pipeline… e.g. NASA.– Exchanges… many sites operating together– Transparent web access aka load balancing– Facilities managed PCs operating as cluster!


.Net… shifting from client to server

Beyond Browsing: Computer can use the web. Human accessible services can be accessed by other computers on the web.

Directory services: e.g. UDDI, Terraserver XML is the core

– Widely accepted open, naming standard– Universal data exchange enable distributed apps– Enables agents

Supports all types of devices


A natural evolution


The End


Things get cheaper: ala Christiansen & Microprocessors


Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma?


Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!100000

10000

1000

100

$K 10

1

0.1

0.01 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8 MB8 MB

1 MB1 MB

256 KB256 KB

64 KB64 KB

16 KB16 KB

Timeshared Timeshared systemssystems

Single-userSingle-usersystemssystems


VAX Planning Model 1975:It was very hard to believe it The model was very good

– 1978 timeshared $250K VAXencost about $8K in 1997!

– Minicomputers stayed at the 100K-1M priceSUN Microsystems exploited this.

Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted

Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs

VAX ran out of address bits!


Was Digital a Victim of Innovator’s Dilemma? Absolutely NOT! Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed and

SUN wouldn’t have replaced DEC as the minicomputer supplier.

IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable computer every built

Miss- understanding the industry Destroying its channels Out of control… billion buck boners

Copyright Gordon Bell Beyond Moores Law (and the web): Whats next? Nets Everywhere gbell/pubs.htm...

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