Copyright © 2004 South-Western 21 The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand.

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

2121The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate

Demand


What’s Important in Chapter 21

• Monetary Policy

• Fiscal Policy

• Pro’s & Con’s of Stabilization Policy (See also Debate #1, Ch 23)

• Automatic Stabilizers


Preliminary: Aggregate Demand

• Many factors influence aggregate demand besides monetary and fiscal policy.

• In particular, desired spending by households and business firms determines the overall demand for goods and services.


Preliminary: Aggregate Demand and Government Intervention

• When desired spending changes, aggregate demand shifts, causing short-run fluctuations in output and employment.

• Monetary and fiscal policy are sometimes used to offset those shifts and stabilize the economy.


HOW MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND

• The aggregate demand curve slopes downward for three reasons:• The wealth effect• The interest-rate effect• The exchange-rate effect


HOW MONETARY POLICY INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND

• For the U.S. economy, the most important reason for the downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve is the interest-rate effect.


The Theory of Liquidity Preference

• Keynes developed the theory of liquidity preference in order to explain what factors determine the economy’s interest rate.

• According to the theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money.

• This theory applies to the short run so we assume that nominal and real interest rates move in the same direction and by the same amount.

• That is, expected inflation doesn’t change.



• Money Supply• The money supply is controlled by the Fed through:

• Open-market operations

• Changing the reserve requirements

• Changing the discount rate

• Because it is fixed by the Fed, the quantity of money supplied does not depend on the interest rate.

• The fixed money supply is represented by a vertical supply curve.



• Money Demand• Money demand is determined by several factors.

• According to the theory of liquidity preference, one of the most important factors is the interest rate.

• People choose to hold money instead of other assets that offer higher rates of return because money can be used to buy goods and services.

• The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest that could be earned on interest-earning assets.

• An increase in the interest rate raises the opportunity cost of holding money.

• As a result, the quantity of money demanded is reduced.

Figure 1 Equilibrium in the Money Market

Quantity ofMoney

InterestRate

0

Moneydemand

Quantity fixedby the Fed

Moneysupply

r2

M2dMd

r1

Equilibriuminterest

rate




• Equilibrium in the Money Market• According to the theory of liquidity preference:

• The interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money.

• There is one interest rate, called the equilibrium interest rate, at which the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of money supplied.



• Equilibrium in the Money Market• If interest rate is above equilibrium, those holding

excess money will deposit it in interest bearing accounts or bonds

• This increased demand drives interest rates down• These lower rates encourage the public to hold

money • Until the money held equals the money supply



• Equilibrium in the Money Market• If interest rate is below equilibrium, those facing a

shortage of money will sell bonds or withdraw funds from CDs or other interest bearing accounts

• This decreased demand for interest bearing accounts drives interest rates up

• These higher rates encourage the public to keep money in interest bearing accounts

• Until the money held equals the money supply


Application of Liquidity Preference Theory to The Downward Slope of the Aggregate

Demand Curve• The price level is one determinant of the

quantity of money demanded.

• A higher price level increases the quantity of money demanded for any given interest rate.

• Higher money demand leads to a higher interest rate.

• The quantity of goods and services demanded falls.


Application of Liquidity Preference Theory to The Downward Slope of the Aggregate

Demand Curve• The end result of this analysis is a negative

relationship between the price level and the quantity of goods and services demanded.

Figure 2 The Money Market and the Slope of the Aggregate-Demand Curve

Quantityof Money


0

InterestRate

Money demand at price level P2 , MD2

Money demand atprice level P , MD

Moneysupply

(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve

3. . . . whichincreasesthe equilibriuminterestrate . . .

2. . . . increases thedemand for money . . .

Quantityof Output

0

PriceLevel

Aggregatedemand

P2

Y2 Y

P

4. . . . which in turn reduces the quantityof goods and services demanded.

1. Anincreasein thepricelevel . . .

r

r2



Monetary Policy: SO WHAT?Changes in the Money Supply

• The Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve when it changes monetary policy.

• An increase in the money supply shifts the money supply curve to the right.

• Without a change in the money demand curve, the interest rate falls.

• Falling interest rates encourage businesses to invest in plant and equipment and you and I to buy more new houses.

• More investment increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.

Figure 3 A Monetary Injection

MS2Moneysupply, MS

Aggregatedemand, AD

YY

P

Money demand at price level P

AD2

Quantityof Money

0

InterestRate

r

r2

(a) The Money Market (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve

Quantityof Output

0

PriceLevel

3. . . . which increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at a given price level.

2. . . . theequilibriuminterest ratefalls . . .

1. When the Fedincreases themoney supply . . .



Monetary Policy: SO WHAT?Changes in the Money Supply

• When the Fed increases the money supply, it lowers the interest rate and increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the right.

• When the Fed contracts the money supply, it raises the interest rate and reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the left.


The Role of Interest-Rate Targets in Fed Monetary Policy

• Monetary policy can be described either in terms of the money supply or in terms of the interest rate.

• Changes in monetary policy can be viewed either in terms of a changing target for the interest rate or in terms of a change in the money supply.

• A target for the federal funds rate affects the money market equilibrium, which influences aggregate demand.


HOW FISCAL POLICY INFLUENCES AGGREGATE DEMAND

• Fiscal policy refers to the government’s choices regarding the overall level of government purchases or taxes.

• Fiscal policy influences saving, investment, and growth in the long run.

• In the short run, fiscal policy primarily affects the aggregate demand.


Changes in Government Purchases

• When policymakers change the money supply or taxes, the effect on aggregate demand is indirect—through the spending decisions of firms or households.

• When the government alters its own purchases of goods or services, it shifts the aggregate-demand curve directly.


The Multiplier Effect

• Government purchases are said to have a multiplier effect on aggregate demand.• Each dollar spent by the government can raise the

aggregate demand for goods and services by more than a dollar.


Changes in Government Purchases

• There are two macroeconomic effects from the change in government purchases: • The multiplier effect• The crowding-out effect


The Multiplier Effect

• The multiplier effect refers to the additional shifts in aggregate demand that result when expansionary fiscal policy increases income and thereby increases consumer spending.

Figure 4 The Multiplier Effect

Quantity ofOutput

PriceLevel

0

Aggregate demand, AD1

$20 billion

AD2

AD3

1. An increase in government purchasesof $20 billion initially increases aggregatedemand by $20 billion . . .

2. . . . but the multipliereffect can amplify theshift in aggregatedemand.



A Formula for the Spending Multiplier

• The formula for the multiplier is:

Multiplier = 1/(1 - MPC)

• An important number in this formula is the marginal propensity to consume (MPC).

• It is the fraction of extra income that a household consumes rather than saves.

• MPC=Change in Consumption/Change in Income

• For example, if you get a $1,000 raise and spend $750 of it, the MPC=750/1000=.75 or 75% or 3/4ths.


A Formula for the Spending Multiplier

• If the MPC is 3/4, then the multiplier will be:

Multiplier = 1/(1 - 3/4) = 4• In this case, a $20 billion increase in

government spending generates $80 billion of increased demand for goods and services.


Four Formulas to Compute Government Spending Need to Close

Recessionary Gap• MPC=Change in Consumption/Change in

Income

• Multiplier=m=1/1-MPC

• Change in equilibrium RGDP=Change in Government Spending times multiplier=Change in G x “m”

• Change in G=Amount of Recessionary Gap/m



Recessionary Gap• MPC=80%

• Amount of Recessionary Gap=$500 billion

• How much of an increase in Government Spending do I need to eliminate the Recession?



Recessionary Gap• MPC=80%

• Amount of Recessionary Gap=$500 billion

• How much of an increase in Government Spending do I need to eliminate the Recession?

ANSWER: m=1/(1-MPC)=1/(1-.8)=5

G=$500 billion/5=$100 billion


The Crowding-Out Effect

• Fiscal policy may not affect the economy as strongly as predicted by the multiplier.

• An increase in government purchases causes the interest rate to rise.

• A higher interest rate reduces investment spending.



• This reduction in demand that results when a fiscal expansion raises the interest rate is called the crowding-out effect.

• The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand.

Figure 5 The Crowding-Out Effect

Quantityof Money


0

InterestRate

r

Money demand, MD

Moneysupply

(a) The Money Market

3. . . . whichincreasestheequilibriuminterestrate . . .

2. . . . the increase inspending increasesmoney demand . . .

MD2

Quantityof Output

0

PriceLevel

Aggregate demand, AD1

(b) The Shift in Aggregate Demand

4. . . . which in turnpartly offsets theinitial increase inaggregate demand.

AD2

AD3

1. When an increase in government purchases increases aggregatedemand . . .

r2

$20 billion




• When the government increases its purchases by $20 billion, the aggregate demand for goods and services could rise by more or less than $20 billion, depending on whether the multiplier effect or the crowding-out effect is larger.

• Usually the multiplier effect is larger.


Changes in Taxes

• When the government cuts personal income taxes, it increases households’ take-home pay.• Households save some of this additional income.• Households also spend some of it on consumer

goods.• Increased household spending shifts the aggregate-

demand curve to the right.


Changes in Taxes

• The size of the shift in aggregate demand resulting from a tax change is affected by the multiplier and crowding-out effects.

• It is also determined by the households’ perceptions about the permanency of the tax change.


Pros and Cons of Stabilization Policy SHOULD WE USE POLICY TO

STABILIZE THE ECONOMY

• Economic stabilization has been an explicit goal of U.S. policy since the Employment Act of 1946.


The Case for Active Stabilization Policy

• The Employment Act has two implications:• The government should avoid being the cause of

economic fluctuations.• The government should respond to changes in the

private economy in order to stabilize aggregate demand.


The Case against Active Stabilization Policy

• Some economists argue that monetary and fiscal policy destabilizes the economy.

• Monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy with a substantial lag.

• They suggest the economy should be left to deal with the short-run fluctuations on its own.


Automatic Stabilizers

• Automatic stabilizers are changes in fiscal policy that stimulate aggregate demand when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any deliberate action.

• Automatic stabilizers include the tax system and some forms of government spending.


Review of Fiscal Policy

• Recession (recognize in graph form)• Cut taxes (and continue government spending,

likely leading to government deficit)• Increase C and I causes• Initial increase in aggregate demand• Multiplier takes over limited by• Crowding out effect due to government

borrowing • PL increases; RGDP increases; U rate decreases

until we get to NRGDP



• Recession (recognize in graph form)

• Increase Government Spending (G) but no increase in taxes, likely causing deficit

• Initial increase in aggregate demand

• Multiplier takes over limited by

• Crowding out effect as government borrows to pay deficit

• PL increases; RGDP increases; U rate decreases until we get to NRGDP


Review of Monetary Policy

• Recession (recognize in graph form)

• Increase Money Supply

• Interest rates decrease

• Investment increase

• Initial increase in aggregate demand

• Multiplier takes over limited by

• PL increases; RGDP increases; U rate decreases until we get to NRGDP



• Inflationary gap (recognize in graph form)

• Decrease Government spending without offsetting decrease in taxes, likely leading to surplus

• Initial decrease in aggregate demand

• Multiplier takes over in reverse

• PL decreases; RGDP decreases; U rate increases until we get to NRGDP




• Increase taxes without increased spending, likely leading to government surplus

• Decreased C and I causes





Review of Monetary Policy


• Decrease Money Supply

• Increase interest rates

• Decrease Investment





Supply-Side Economics

• Permanent Tax Cuts mean owners and workers get to keep more money

• Lead to more effort by firms and workers

• Leads to an increase in SRAS

• AND an increase in LRAS

• AND more tax revenues (Laffer Curve)

Copyright © 2004 South-Western 21 The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand.

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Transcript of Copyright © 2004 South-Western 21 The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand.