Copy of AMBA Financial Model
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PRICE INFORMATION Market Segments 2014 Rev. % of Rev. % Growth Rev. Forecast CURRENT PRICE 52.70 $ Wearables 23,270 $ 13% 14% 33,831 $ 1 YR TARGET PRICE 61.28 $ Sports 62,650 $ 35% 10% 26,582 $ % UPSIDE 16.3% Automotive 23,270 $ 13% 3% 7,250 $ IP Security 48,330 $ 27% 9% 21,749 $ KEY COMPANY INFORMATION CAMERAS 157,520 $ 88% 37% 89,411 $ Market Cap $1.52B INFRASTRUCTURE 21,480 $ 12% -2% (4,833) $ Company Founding Date 2004 Company IPO Date 2012 TOTAL 179,000 $ 100% 34% 241,650 $ ALL NUMBERS IN $MM 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017 Revenue 72 95 97 121 40 41 47 51 179 242 314 393 COGS 24 34 32 40 14 15 16 18 63 89 116 149 Gross profit 47 60 65 81 26 26 31 33 116 152 198 243 Research and development 28 34 38 43 13 13 13 16 55 77 99 125 Sales, General and administrative 7 10 16 18 7 7 7 8 29 33 39 45 Total operating expenses 35 45 54 61 20 20 20 21 81 110 138 170 Operating income 13 15 11 20 6 6 10 12 35 42 60 74 Taxes 0 (2) (2) (2) 0 (1) (1) 0 (2) (2) (2) (3) NET INCOME 13 14 10 18 6 5 9 12 33 40 58 71 Key Metrics and Ratios Revenue Growth 32% 2% 25% 20% 25% 24% 9% 48% 34% 31% 27% Gross Margin 65% 63% 67% 67% 65% 63% 66% 65% 65% 63% 63% 62% Net Margin 18% 15% 10% 15% 15% 12% 19% 24% 18% 17% 19% 18% ALL NUMBERS IN $MM 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017 Cash and cash equivalents 27 42 59 100 143 129 128 137 137 163 214 277 Short-term investments 5 0 0 0 26 38 35 35 22 24 28 Total cash 32 42 59 100 143 156 167 172 172 185 238 305 Receivables 9 9 9 20 19 21 27 38 38 22 24 27 Inventories 2 7 7 9 10 10 13 15 15 17 20 22 TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 44 60 78 133 177 191 210 229 229 227 285 359 Gross property, plant and equipment 4 5 5 7 8 8 9 11 11 13 15 18 Accumulated Depreciation (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (7) (7) (7) (8) (8) Net property, plant and equipment 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 10 TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 11 14 TOTAL ASSETS 48 64 82 139 183 197 216 237 237 236 296 373 Accounts payable 5 7 6 7 8 13 14 12 12 13 16 20 Taxes payable 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 Accrued liabilities 9 7 8 14 12 9 12 10 10 13 16 19 Deferred revenues 10 10 8 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 24 24 23 25 25 28 32 28 28 31 37 44 Other long-term liabilities 40 40 52 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 41 41 52 1 2 2 2 2 2 (8) (6) (3) TOTAL LIABILITIES 65 65 75 26 27 30 34 30 30 23 31 41 TOTAL STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY (17) (1) 6 112 156 168 182 207 207 213 265 332 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY 48 64 82 139 183 197 216 237 237 236 296 373 Key Metrics and Ratios ROA 27% 22% 12% 13% 3% 3% 4% 5% 14% 17% 20% 19% ROE -76% -1400% 167% 16% 4% 3% 5% 6% 16% 19% 22% 21% ALL NUMBERS IN $MM 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017 Net income 13 14 10 18 6 5 9 13 33 40 58 71 Depreciation & amortization 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 Accounts receivable (4) 0 (1) (11) 3 3 3 (13) (12) (12) (14) (15) Inventory (1) (6) 1 (2) 7 (2) (6) (5) (3) (3) (3) (5) Accounts payable 1 2 0 0 (1) 1 0 3 2 1 3 4 Accrued liabilities 4 0 1 7 (6) 5 1 5 5 3 3 3 CASH FROM OPERATIONS 15 13 13 11 13 10 6 6 36 34 54 67 Investments in property, plant, and equipment 0 (1) (1) (2) 0 0 0 (2) (2) (2) (2) (3) Purchases of investments 0 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sales/Maturities of investments 0 0 0 0 0 (27) (14) (10) (10) 0 0 0 Purchases of intangibles (1) (1) (1) 0 0 1 2 1 4 (1) (1) (1) Other investing activities (4) 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CASH FROM INVESTING (6) 2 (1) (1) 0 (27) (13) (11) (8) (3) (3) (4) Preferred stock issued 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Common stock issued 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Common stock repurchased 0 0 (7) 0 4 2 3 0 9 0 0 0 CASH FROM FINANCING 1 0 6 32 23 (10) 5 0 18 0 0 0 Net change in cash 10 15 17 42 11 10 9 (5) 32 31 51 63 Competitor Name Mkt Cap P/E Ratio Sumco Corp $3.3B 101.7 P/E Ratio 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Entegris $1.8B 99.0 38 51.50 $ 53.74 $ 55.98 $ 58.22 $ 60.45 $ 62.69 $ 64.93 $ Tessera Technologies $1.7B 60.6 40 54.21 $ 56.57 $ 58.92 $ 61.28 $ 63.64 $ 65.99 $ 68.35 $ ASM Pacific Technology Ltd. $4.2B 36.9 42 56.92 $ 59.39 $ 61.87 $ 64.34 $ 66.82 $ 69.29 $ 71.77 $ Hanergy Thin Film Power Group $6.6B 35.6 44 59.63 $ 62.22 $ 64.81 $ 67.41 $ 70.00 $ 72.59 $ 75.19 $ Industry Avg. (Morningstar) $3.1B 45.2 46 62.34 $ 65.05 $ 67.76 $ 70.47 $ 73.18 $ 75.89 $ 78.60 $ Conservative Earnings Estimates 30% Conservative P/E Ratio 40 Curret Stock Price 52.70 Target Stock Price 61.28 Targeted Return (1 yr. hold) 16.3% VALUATION Earnings Growth Estimates for 2015 Projected Valuation Historic Annual Data 2014 Quarterly Data Pro-Forma Financials P/E Ratio Comparables FY 2015 Segment Revenue Forecast CURT PAYNE AMBARELLA (AMBA) STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS Historic Annual Data Pro-Forma Financials 2014 Quarterly Data INCOME STATEMENT BALANCE SHEET Historic Annual Data 2014 Quarterly Data Pro-Forma Financials
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Transcript of Copy of AMBA Financial Model
PRICE INFORMATION Market Segments 2014 Rev. % of Rev. % Growth Rev. Forecast
CURRENT PRICE 52.70$ Wearables 23,270$ 13% 14% 33,831$
1 YR TARGET PRICE 61.28$ Sports 62,650$ 35% 10% 26,582$ % UPSIDE 16.3% Automotive 23,270$ 13% 3% 7,250$
IP Security 48,330$ 27% 9% 21,749$
KEY COMPANY INFORMATION CAMERAS 157,520$ 88% 37% 89,411$
Market Cap $1.52B INFRASTRUCTURE 21,480$ 12% -2% (4,833)$
Company Founding Date 2004
Company IPO Date 2012 TOTAL 179,000$ 100% 34% 241,650$
ALL NUMBERS IN $MM
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017
Revenue 72 95 97 121 40 41 47 51 179 242 314 393
COGS 24 34 32 40 14 15 16 18 63 89 116 149
Gross profit 47 60 65 81 26 26 31 33 116 152 198 243
Research and development 28 34 38 43 13 13 13 16 55 77 99 125
Sales, General and administrative 7 10 16 18 7 7 7 8 29 33 39 45
Total operating expenses 35 45 54 61 20 20 20 21 81 110 138 170
Operating income 13 15 11 20 6 6 10 12 35 42 60 74
Taxes 0 (2) (2) (2) 0 (1) (1) 0 (2) (2) (2) (3)
NET INCOME 13 14 10 18 6 5 9 12 33 40 58 71
Key Metrics and Ratios
Revenue Growth 32% 2% 25% 20% 25% 24% 9% 48% 34% 31% 27%
Gross Margin 65% 63% 67% 67% 65% 63% 66% 65% 65% 63% 63% 62%
Net Margin 18% 15% 10% 15% 15% 12% 19% 24% 18% 17% 19% 18%
ALL NUMBERS IN $MM
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017
Cash and cash equivalents 27 42 59 100 143 129 128 137 137 163 214 277
Short-term investments 5 0 0 0 26 38 35 35 22 24 28
Total cash 32 42 59 100 143 156 167 172 172 185 238 305
Receivables 9 9 9 20 19 21 27 38 38 22 24 27
Inventories 2 7 7 9 10 10 13 15 15 17 20 22
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 44 60 78 133 177 191 210 229 229 227 285 359
Gross property, plant and equipment 4 5 5 7 8 8 9 11 11 13 15 18
Accumulated Depreciation (3) (3) (4) (4) (5) (5) (6) (7) (7) (7) (8) (8)
Net property, plant and equipment 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 7 10
TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 11 14
TOTAL ASSETS 48 64 82 139 183 197 216 237 237 236 296 373
Accounts payable 5 7 6 7 8 13 14 12 12 13 16 20
Taxes payable 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Accrued liabilities 9 7 8 14 12 9 12 10 10 13 16 19
Deferred revenues 10 10 8 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 24 24 23 25 25 28 32 28 28 31 37 44
Other long-term liabilities 40 40 52 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
TOTAL LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 41 41 52 1 2 2 2 2 2 (8) (6) (3)
TOTAL LIABILITIES 65 65 75 26 27 30 34 30 30 23 31 41
TOTAL STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY (17) (1) 6 112 156 168 182 207 207 213 265 332
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDER'S EQUITY 48 64 82 139 183 197 216 237 237 236 296 373
Key Metrics and Ratios
ROA 27% 22% 12% 13% 3% 3% 4% 5% 14% 17% 20% 19%
ROE -76% -1400% 167% 16% 4% 3% 5% 6% 16% 19% 22% 21%
ALL NUMBERS IN $MM
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 exp. 2014 exp. 2015 2016 2017
Net income 13 14 10 18 6 5 9 13 33 40 58 71
Depreciation & amortization 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Accounts receivable (4) 0 (1) (11) 3 3 3 (13) (12) (12) (14) (15)
Inventory (1) (6) 1 (2) 7 (2) (6) (5) (3) (3) (3) (5)
Accounts payable 1 2 0 0 (1) 1 0 3 2 1 3 4
Accrued liabilities 4 0 1 7 (6) 5 1 5 5 3 3 3
CASH FROM OPERATIONS 15 13 13 11 13 10 6 6 36 34 54 67
Investments in property, plant, and equipment 0 (1) (1) (2) 0 0 0 (2) (2) (2) (2) (3)
Purchases of investments 0 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sales/Maturities of investments 0 0 0 0 0 (27) (14) (10) (10) 0 0 0
Purchases of intangibles (1) (1) (1) 0 0 1 2 1 4 (1) (1) (1)
Other investing activities (4) 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CASH FROM INVESTING (6) 2 (1) (1) 0 (27) (13) (11) (8) (3) (3) (4)
Preferred stock issued 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Common stock issued 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Common stock repurchased 0 0 (7) 0 4 2 3 0 9 0 0 0
CASH FROM FINANCING 1 0 6 32 23 (10) 5 0 18 0 0 0
Net change in cash 10 15 17 42 11 10 9 (5) 32 31 51 63
Competitor Name Mkt Cap P/E Ratio
Sumco Corp $3.3B 101.7 P/E Ratio 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Entegris $1.8B 99.0 38 51.50$ 53.74$ 55.98$ 58.22$ 60.45$ 62.69$ 64.93$
Tessera Technologies $1.7B 60.6 40 54.21$ 56.57$ 58.92$ 61.28$ 63.64$ 65.99$ 68.35$
ASM Pacific Technology Ltd. $4.2B 36.9 42 56.92$ 59.39$ 61.87$ 64.34$ 66.82$ 69.29$ 71.77$
Hanergy Thin Film Power Group $6.6B 35.6 44 59.63$ 62.22$ 64.81$ 67.41$ 70.00$ 72.59$ 75.19$
Industry Avg. (Morningstar) $3.1B 45.2 46 62.34$ 65.05$ 67.76$ 70.47$ 73.18$ 75.89$ 78.60$
Conservative Earnings Estimates 30%
Conservative P/E Ratio 40
Curret Stock Price 52.70
Target Stock Price 61.28
Targeted Return (1 yr. hold) 16.3%
VALUATION
Earnings Growth Estimates for 2015
Projected Valuation
Historic Annual Data 2014 Quarterly Data Pro-Forma Financials
P/E Ratio Comparables
FY 2015 Segment Revenue Forecast
CURT PAYNE
AMBARELLA (AMBA)
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
Historic Annual Data Pro-Forma Financials2014 Quarterly Data
INCOME STATEMENT
BALANCE SHEETHistoric Annual Data 2014 Quarterly Data Pro-Forma Financials
