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ISSN 1321-1579

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 1995

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their invaluableMiller andtowouldthis

comments on a

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1717

.... 19

Background1989-1 1

Background1987-1 1 ..Since

..., , ..., "" G.OO ••••••••••• & ••••••••••• 8 ••• 0 •••••••••• 00 ••

Background .1988-1991....................................................................................................................... 25Since August 1 1 26

next ' .Background .1987-1991 29Since August 1991 30

41

", ",,, rt... 44............................................................................................. 44

Moscow (1Il)

\

RU

Kyrgyzstan Bshkek 4.385.000 76.6.\ 1 57 Kirghiz Russian 21 %,Uzbek 13%

Latvia 2.737.000 24.595 111 Latvian 52%, Russian 34%,

Caplal EthniC GroupsBelorussian 5%

------'-_._- Lithuania V,lniuS 3,767.000 25,174 150 Ut'1uanian 80%, Russian 9%,Armenia Yere.a" 3,360. (IDJ 11,505 292 Armenian 93%, Aleri 3%, Polish 7%

RUSSian 2% Moldova Kishlf-:ev 4,440.000 13012 341 Moldovan 64%, Ukrainian 141Azerbaijan Baku 7.170.0)C 33.436 214 Azen B3%, Armenian 6%, RUSSian 13'

Russian 6% Russia Moscow 150505.000 6.592.849 23 Russian 82%, Tatar 4%,Belarus Minsk 10.390.0)0 80,155 130 Belorussian 78%, Ukrainian 13%

RL;ssian 13%, Polish 4% Tajikistan Oushante 5.210.000 55.251 94 Taj:k 62%, Uzbek 24%,i all,n1 1.5:)60:0 17,413 92 Estonian 62%, Russian 30%, Russian 8%

Ukrainian 3% Turkmenistan Ashkhabad 3,615.000 188,456 19 TL;rkmen 72%, Russian 9%,Georgia Tb'/:SI 555C OQ:J 26.911 206 Georgian 70%. Armenian 8%, Uzbek 9%

RUSSian 6% Ukraine Kiev 52800,000 233.090 227 Uk.~alnlan 73%, Russian 22%Kazakhstan A~fT',a;': 3 16.S8C.CJO 1.049.156 i 6 Kazakh 40%. Russian 38%. Uzbekistan Tashkent 20.325.000 172.142 118 Uzbek 71%, Russian 8%,

Gern;an 5'~ TaJik 5%

In II new Eurasian

astoover

U.~,.U.HkJ" Iran andfor a military

'ncrD>rI •.,...v" .... "..... thr Armenian

aa

of

although one of the most conservative Soviet states, one of the slowest torespond to glasnost and one in which ex-communist leadership has remained firmly incontrol, has able to use its economic independence (oil, gas and cotton) to distance itselffrom while remaining a member of it.

II In

war which +k","''''+r~....

In

'It is to npnpr~h

......t~ r,,"'''' ever

Leonid, 'The Price of Freedom' ,The Bulletin ofthe Atomic Scientists, January/February 1994: 17.

the II

killedpact divided

had beendeath

population.Belarus, large

1 census only 80.2% of'"'VA.A.0'-'....." ...." ..... Belarusian to be native language

Soviet As one historian has

Andrew, 'Belarus History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentPublications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 166.

'Belarus - in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications London, Second Edition, 1994: 166-167.

In 1/

1

Belarus to(the

eventually

Clem, Ralph 'Belorussians' in Graham Smith ed., The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union,London, 1990: 109.

5 Tiurina, Tatiana, 'Neutrality, Maybe', The Bulletin ofthe Atomic Scientists, January/February 1994: 37.

In II

and to then dissolveVV.l',",.l.ll.lloJ (indeed in the IMF postponed granting a

insufficient progress was being in the area ofhave at President's but the

the yes to giving Russian languagehistoric flag to

Ryder, Andrew, 'Belarus - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentStates, Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 167-169.Zhdanko, Valentin, Sevodnya, Feb. 15: 4 as reproduced in The Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press, vol.

no.7 (1995): 21.Karmanov, Yuras 'The end of the independent press?', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 12 January 1995, as reproducedin The Current Digest of the post-Soviet Press, vol.xlv.ii, 1995: 27.

'Absence of real reforms pointed out to Belorussia', Kommersant-Daily, 29 March 1995, inThe Current Digests ofPost-Soviet Press, xlvii, no. 13, 1995: 20.

/ new lnctevenc'1el1t

10The Current Digests ofPost-Soviet Press, xlvii, no.12, 1995: 23 anddecides to go with Russia' , Financial Review, 16 May 1995.

'Four years on, ..... " .... '·... rll'-'

the

II

12

Charles, 'Moldova History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications London, Second Edition, 1994: 450.

'Moldova - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentStates, Europa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 451.

In 11 indeoendent

two ..arr1AMC'

J'-''vVU~ was 'JCltsClUL1Cl.

cent population the five southern counties (althoughonly one county). In 1990

troops

13 'Moldova A split', The Bulletin the Atomic Scientists,

[41994: 42.

Charles, 'Eurasia letter: Moldova with a Russian face', Policy, Winter 1994-95: 108.

8

the Moldovanmadethe latter were not ,nt,l"'rp.C'tt:.rf

too\\tTI budget, IJ'U'AA"'-V....A

15

16

17

Charles, 'Eurasia letter: Moldova with a Russian face', Foreign Policy, Winter 1994-95: Ill.peaceKeeOlmg in the Commonwealth of Independent States' Background Brief, Foreign & CommonwealthOffice, London, February 1995: 8,

Svetlana, 'Moldova split', The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February1994: 42.

In 9

While towards a Transdnestria been slow, have somedevelopments towards a settlement Gagauzia. In December 1994 the Moldovan parliament

law the a special status that allowed for secession fromthe event a change republic's legal status (for example, reunification

Gagauzia three official languages (Gagauz, Moldovan and Russian) and itsown anthem, March 1995 a was to which areas

18 The Current Digest ofPost-Soviet Press, xlvii, no.! 3 (1995): 21.

10 In

19 'Borders of Gagauz autononous determined', Sevodnya, 7 March 1995, as reproduced inThe Current Digest ofthe Post-Soviet Press, vol.xlvii, no.l 0 (1995): 16.

In 11

20Andrew, 'Ukraine - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent

Europa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 677.21

Wilson, 'Ukraine - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 678.

In

UvIJUUv"" (who a to nrp"upnt

to

in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentLI11111"-'U, London, Second Edition, 1994: 679.

in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications London, Second Edition, 1994: 680.

The Ukraine at the Crossroads', Aussenpolitik, IV, 1994: 332-333.Taras, 'Ukraine since the elections - from romanticism to pragmatism', Jane's Intelligence

December 1994: 567.

In II

oJ,,", • .J,..U'"""L,oJ' movement in

over

initiallyr1r-:nUl,nCT new lines on

to

only beenPV''"\<:11'1'Clr,1'l for that it will be left out of this expansion

a bulwark 28 the 1

Government', .)eVnal'lWL 2 March, in The

'Ukraine since the elections - from romanticism to "'..-:>OYY\-:>hCYY\, Jane's IntelligenceDecember 1994: 567.

Konstantin, '''Leftist'' Prime Minister leavesCurrent Digest Press, no.9, 1995.The Economist, 8 1995: 50 ..

14 In II

30

':lttpITlntpn to remove one of_ "'-'VUJULUUVH of Crimea abolishing the

and launching proceedings against Meshkov. Meshkov\",;:)!U\WIH and ensconced himself in his office for some days.

29 Wilson, 'Ukraine - History' in the volume Eastern and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 682.

of tension clamps Crimea', The 30 May 1994.'Ukraine since the elections - from romanticism to pragmatism', Jane's Intelligence

December 1994: 569.

In Il

en routeJUr;r;v..::nJ that some

on tue wane,

UJ.AVUA'-'A 600 000 waiting to return.tariff difficulties to return to theone commentator

Dixon, Robyn, 'Russia offers no hope to Crimea's ex-leader', The Sydney Morning Herald, 22 March 1995.Sutherland, 'Consulate move angers Crimea [sic- should read Ukraine]', Weekend Australian, 25-26March 1995.Sutherland, Tracy, 'Consulate move angers Crimea [sic- should read Ukraine]', Weekend Australian, 25-26March 1995.

35 The Australian, 20 April 1995.

36 Arthur37 Helton. Arthur

'Crimea: Bitter'Crimea: Bitter

of banishment', KP1"UfYl"ps.

of banishment', Refugees,1994: 17.1994: 16.

1/

1

on

38

new nationalist rVH·'It'~1'Y'1t:>1nT

old flag and declared theillegal. It also conducted a referendum

of the 1918 act formally

on 'Georgia - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentPublications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 309.

1

'Christianisation' ofautonomous status some

on 'Georgia - in the volume Eastern and the Commonwealth of IndependentPublications Limited, Edition. 1994: 11.

In /I

former'h-:l1~"I<:>n of State Council toattempted to control

40

41

on - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States,Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 11.

on 'Georgia - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States,Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 310.

In

'The Ossetian Conflict', Jane's Intelligence Review,Boris, 'Russian Peacekeepers remain in Abkhazia on an

nrpcpntprl in The Current Digest ofthe Post- Soviet Press,

1994: 5.basis', /zestia, 28 December

no.52 (1994): 18.

In the I

44 Liana, accused of disloyalty', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 March 1995, as reproducedin The Current ofPost-Soviet Press, xlvii, no.12. 1995: 23-24.

In the JJ

,~5

46

on 'Armenia in the volume Eastern and the Commonwealth ofIndependentPublications London, Second Edition, 1994: I

on 'Armenia - in the volume Eastern and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 134.

1

over A

a draft constitution to a rp.tt:'rp.n~,

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Central AsianReport,

a;::'WIIIUl, 'Until there are no more trees', The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February

48

47

In

49\JPPV:>lllVIl silenced as Armenia heads for election', The Canberra Times, 24

50 See the several articles on the subject reproduced in The Current of Post-Soviet Press,(1995): 22-23.

1995.no. 11

1

bytroops recovered

The event ""'""r''lYV'''''

galvanised opposition to

5 J on in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEuropa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 148.

Il

had .o..... ri"'"..ari

from ~r.C',1-,r"."1

lowland positions to the east.r.r-r'11 .....''li''r'n of one third of

""'''''''-JAA''-'AAAJ,V situation, of C'11v,nr.rt

'l.T1,rI""c'n...<:>~rt corruption, culminated in a L'ALLA~"""

President and _L_...... ...'.....(1969-87), to

....... ,"" ......''-4 to have supported the coup. The Russianadministration an

""'A ....V~....U""'.... to join the itsKarabakh which did not involve Russian

.......u"" .... 'c .........'''-'' that a war in Nagorny KarabakhAzerbaijan to the Russian route

Sea) and encourage Azerbaijan to join Iranto southern pipeline route which as

through Armenia and not as they would prefer, throughsatisfaction at the defarture of Mr whom

stand,.5

52 The Morning 21 June 1993.

In 1I maCDE:neJenl Eurasian

56

ago,mcI-K,araiJakh', Jane's Intelligence\/p\Jll1rnpc;:" Account' Jane's

An Account' Jane'sAn Eyewitness Account' Jane's

April 1994: 163.April 1994: 164.April 1994: 165.

Review, April 1994: 164.

28 In

59

'Unsuccessful coup are U,"".VIJlll11.1;:. a tradition', Kommersant-Daily, 18 March 1995, asrpn"y\{"i1lr'pri in The Current Digest ofPost-Soviet Vol.xlvii, no. 1I ( 11.

Nezavisimaya gazeta, 14 1995, reproduced in The Current of the Post-no.l1, April 1995.

In II new md'eDE?nd,ent

?..

with generala popular-front style

participation in theremained only

the' First Secretary ofelected Chairman

60Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEdition, 1994: 662.

61Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentEdition, 1994: 662.

Europa Publications Limited, London, Second

Europa Publications Limited, London, Second

30 In

It was onlypeace-keeping force(indeed, has issued its

on dual citizenship for ethnic

for a jointnew

with

a large natural gas, oil and cotton industry from the Soviet Union andin Moscow had long would

62 Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of IndependentLJUILIVll, 1994: 663.

63 Eastern and the Commonwealth of IndependentLAJlI.IVll. 1994: 664.

Europa Publications Limited, London, Second

Europa Publications Limited, London, Second

ma'eD~maent Eurasianthe

were

64 'Turkmenistan - A Kind of Prosperity', The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,.lB-"",h.... ".·" 1994: 46.

1

was

glasnost and inhealth (as a result of the

firstITn£'"£lrn the nationalist movement

the ma'epEmQ'ent Eurasian

For more details on these conflictsVV>"',,""'''''< and economic

66 Anon. 'Uzbekistan - Tamerlane v. Marx',

lJa:rGUler-·lJaraen. Central Asia: The emergence a newParilmnlen1:arv Research 11 1991 7.

Atomic 1994: 1.

II

turnout was70to vote,

""h..11<),..,,' 1994: 48-

69

70, 'The Fixers, Old elites

March 1995: 24.elections in ex-Soviet states', Far Eastern Economic Review, 16

to to

the lJ

a

1

successor.

74

73

71 Akiner, Shirin, 'Kazakhstan- in the volume Eastern Europe and the CommonwealthStates, Europa Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 363.

72 Dr John G~ardiner-Garden, Central Asia: The emergence ofa new political and economic region?, h!c"~I/, ...r.,,,",rI

Paper, Research 11 1991: 4. Although only briefly-lived this state served asan inspiration to the nationalist in the final years of the Soviet Union.

Shirin, 'Kazakhstan- in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of lnc.(eDt:?na'entPublications Second Edition, 1994: 363.

"eln,:' Hrc,c of these and other in Central Asia on the eve of the break-up of the SovietUnion, with more historical and context, please see Dr John Gardiner-Garden, CentralAsia: The emergence of a new political and economic region?, Background Paper, Parliamentary Research

11 September 1991.

11

1

1nationhood in

most citing AUAA""U.''''''''V

'The new Kazakhstan: has somethim!: gone World Today,

November 1993: 209.1

etnno-DOlltICS of Kazakhstan', The World

in the volume Eastern and the CommonwealthLAlIlH~U, Second Edition, 1994: 364.

1 March 1 renroduced in The Current

78

77

76

75

the 11

81

A

'M"U"AU~.lJ Mongolia's western cross

1994:UeOpOHtlCal Pull on Russia', Orbis, Fall 1994:

in Kazakhstan', Jane's IntellifZence

Shirin, 'Kazakhstan- History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Ina'emmaenlPublications Limited, London, Second 1994: 362.'Russia and the ethno-politics of Kazakhstan', The World Today, November 1 210.

'Russia and the ethno-politics of Kazakhstan', The World Today, November 1993: 210.,"ULJU1CH..,111. Alvin 'The Pull on Russia', Fall 1994: 578.

November 1994 close to 100,000 ethnic Ka7.1lkhs having crossed over from

80

a ,",UIIUIUUI.",

commentators predicted 1"-1 ~'7~1rh'J,p'l.T

of Post-Soviet Press, vol.xlvii, no.11, 1995: 11-13.

Boris Shennan in Sevodnya, 1 January: reproduced in The Current Digest ofPost-Sovietno.3, 1995: 27 and the letter dated 10 February 1995 from the Pennanent Representatives of

Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation to the United Nations, addressed to theKirill and Saikal, Amin, 'The new Kazakhstan: has gone

December 1994: 228.'The Fixers. Old elites elections in ex-Soviet states', Far Eastern Economioc Review, 16

1995.89 See the several articles reproduced in The Current

88

87

86

40 In the O(JC'KVClra: I'",n'''n<, oj II states

Kyrgyzstan miracle Pamirs?

territory covered by nt"""Cpl'lt day was mostoccupied by northern .... <.AUH""''' speaking ....JJ, ........""'...,. The Ferghanawas the Silk Roads converged.

1 millenium ADdivides lowland

the was Turkic-speaking people theRiver in southern ahead an expanding "llr'Ylfl'"

these speakers came under the control of the Mongol Oirots.Oirots by the Manchus in 1758 the as nominal Chinese subjects. In the

early 1 century territory came under the suzerainty of the Khanate Kokand and in1 as part that khanate, was incorporated into the Russian Empire. were L' ... ,!,~r·-'I

revolts against the Russians and many moved to the Pamirs, Afghanistan and China.The fall of the in 1 7 was followed by a of war between Bolshevik forces onone hand and 'White' Army, Muslim basmachi, and nationalists forces on the other. Sovietpower was not full established in the until 1919. Kyrgyz were originally theTurkestan ASSR, but 1926 a Kyrgyz ASSR was established. In 1 the KyrgyzSSR was established as a full Union Republic the USSR.9o

The land reforms and collectivisation in early 1 which forced nearly all ofnomadic to settle were very unpopular and led to a short-lived revival of

basmachi movement. the 1930s members of Kyrgyz Communist whostarted to air nationalist sentiments were purged by Stalin. More than years 1980.

• HUH.U..... purge have been behind the murder Sultan Ibraimov, Chairman ofCouncil of Ministers, supporter of republican autonomy.

[n 1 in the early of perestroika, the First Secretary the KCP, Turdakan Usubaliev,was accused corruption and nepotism and replaced by Absamat Masaliyev. Masaliyevdismissed fronl office many Usuballyev's allies but did not embrace policy

1988-1991

Despite continuing conservative nature of in 1988 the Republic's began tomore liberal and 1989 unofficial political groups, such as Ashar and Osh Aymaghi,

began vacant land to build to alleviate the acute housing crises. TraditionalSoviet-style elections to the Supreme Soviet of Kyrgyzstan in February 1990 resulted, however,

Communist Party candidates winning most seats unopposed and in April the newelected party First Masaliyev Chairman. Masaliyev was also favoured for the soon-

post President but some significant events intervened to discredit the

90rr'H'-:rrr,n - History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europa

Publications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 382.

II 41

can only existwhere there

earned, not made from oil, ore or

barbaric destruction of the natural resource. In aa balance production and consumption, money is

We don't have any of this. Consequently, we basically

91 'Kyrgyztan History' in the volume Eastern Europe and the CommonwealthPublications ,--"u'n,,-.., London, Second 1994: 383.

92 'Kyrgyztan in the volume Eastern Europe and the CommonwealthPublications London, Second Edition, 1994: 385.

Independent States, Europa

Independent States, Europa

In mdi'Jnp)'1dp,nf Eurasian

and it wouldIt to

to turn to wealthier

or ..... HJU.L'v.L

rig elections in ex-Soviet states', Eastern Economic Review,

'""rn£>d'r'Cl""', The Bulletin of the Atomic

UelmO(::rac;y, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,

with

Grappling with

'-'~ ....~.. ,,'~, 1994: 53.

95

94

In the 11 new mQ'ev£?nQ'ent

across the

97

IS Ul"'l"'(,l.JU.l~.

political activity but localand are .lu. .l'..... .l.ljl~ .-v'r.~."'~r

most

for the Under Secretary of Defense for

The Bulletin of the Atomicwith

Central Asia. The New Geopolitics.

97

96

44 In the

1

Communist authorities occurred a ofhigh after rumours spread that Armenian refugees were to

violence broke out at a rally 3 000 people, Makkhamov appealed to

98 in the volume Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, EuropaPublications Limited, London, Second Edition, 1994: 646.

in of 11

the civil war,and the

by only one pass which is not during thecity of Khojand (formerly Leninabad) was wealthiest part

traditionally the Communist benefited the mostcountry is larger, but populated poorer. Both north south are

..lJU'Cl.UV Russians Uzbeks in had tended to support Communists.tended to the support in poor suburbs, in eastern territories

and Gorno-Badakhshon and in Kurgan-Tyube, locals what theysaw as Government's support for the rival of Kulyab and support for

of easterners their territory.

1/

1were deprived of

Althoughother states

as possible and signedwar ~."'_""~AA''''' AAAVA ''-'U.'':OAAAf;;''A

to the 201 st Motorisedplay a more partisan in conflict and to

'LU,",h-'AUUA border guards on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border.

99in the volume Eastern and the ('ommonwealth of Independent States, Europa

Publications """"''''''''', London, Second Edition, 1994: 649.

the II

Rakhmonov governmentpolitical c',re,,,"'"

states', Far Eastern Economic Review, 16

& Commonwealth... Ul.c ... I'..\.... plll;;; in the Commonwealth of States' U,U'VrTYFH/VIn

London, 1 9.'The Fixers. Old elites rig elections in

March 1995: 24.

101

100

102

103

'Western democracy is 100 years 28xlvii, no.9 (1995).

War?', The Bulletin the Atomic

In the I

the near

on

more

as by war as

104 Pe,lceJkeepmtg in the Commonwealth of Indlep(~ndentStates' BackgroundLJVH'~VU, Hp ...... ''>1"" 1995: 9.

turns out to be thoroughly Soviet',ofthe Post-Soviet xlvii, no.9, 1995: 16.

& Commonwealth

March